Over the last 21 years, the first three days of May have historically traded higher, and the S&P 500 has been up 19 of the last 28 first trading days of May.
Weakness often emerges around the May 6 (Wed), May 8-12 (Fri-Tue), and after May 18 (Mon). The final four days usually post solid gains (May 26-29, Tue-Fri), though the last day of May has been notably weak.
Weakness often emerges around the May 6 (Wed), May 8-12 (Fri-Tue), and after May 18 (Mon). The final four days usually post solid gains (May 26-29, Tue-Fri), though the last day of May has been notably weak.
In
midterm election years, May typically starts higher but turns broadly
weak by May 5 (Tue), with softness persisting through
most of the month.
In the Four-Year Presidential Cycle, May of midterm election years has historically been the weakest,
with all major indices avg. declines: DJIA –0.08%, S&P 500 –0.63%, NASDAQ –0.76%, NYSE –1.19%.
Historical S&P 500 data shows S&P 500 data shows May avg. just 0.38% gain since 1950 overall, but improves to 2.58%
avg. and 9-1 record in the 10 years with April gains of 5% or higher, including the last seven straight positives post-1985.
avg. and 9-1 record in the 10 years with April gains of 5% or higher, including the last seven straight positives post-1985.
Since 1960 (or even 1950), when the S&P 500 closes the month of April at a new all-time high
monthly close, the remainder of the calendar years performance has never been negative.
monthly close, the remainder of the calendar years performance has never been negative.
