The S&P 500’s performance during the week of May 2–9 (Sat-Sat) has historically been fairly neutral over the past 51 years, posting 28 advances and 23 declines for an average gain of just 0.09%.
» Seasonal evidence alongside recent momentum points modestly in favor of higher prices over the coming week. «
► 51-year May 2–9 performance: mostly neutral (+0.09% avg; 28 up / 23 down)
► Overall seasonal and momentum bias: modestly bullish for next week
► First half of May often mirrors first half of April behavior
► 2026 April (Apr 1–16): strong +7.09% advance
► Strong April (>1.68%) historically: 15 up / 2 down in following week
► Overall seasonal and momentum bias: modestly bullish for next week
► First half of May often mirrors first half of April behavior
► 2026 April (Apr 1–16): strong +7.09% advance
► Strong April (>1.68%) historically: 15 up / 2 down in following week
► Weak April (<-0.45%) historically: 6 up / 11 down in following week
► Closest strong April cases (2009, 2020) saw +5.89% and +3.50% gains
► Closest strong April cases (2009, 2020) saw +5.89% and +3.50% gains
However, a broader set of seasonal studies suggests that stronger recent price trends tend to support continuation, implying a bias toward further gains in the coming week. Notably, the first half of May has often behaved similarly to the first half of April, reinforcing the relevance of the recent April setup.
In the data breakdown, May 2–9 returns are grouped into three 17-year categories based on the S&P’s performance from April 1–16 over the same 51-year history. In 2026, the index rose 7.09% during that April window. In the 17 prior instances where April 1–16 gains exceeded 1.68%, the S&P advanced in 15 of the following May 2–9 periods versus only 2 declines. By contrast, when April 1–16 was weaker than –0.45%, the next-week record flipped to 6 up and 11 down. More specifically, in the two historical cases most comparable to 2026—2009 and 2020, both with April gains above 5%—the S&P followed with strong May 2–9 advances of 5.89% and 3.50%, respectively.
The accompanying ratings system scales outcomes into -3 to +3 standard deviation bands on a -100 to +100 framework, with outliers down-weighted to better reflect typical behavior; readings below -50 or above +50 are treated as trade-alert conditions. While multiple non-seasonal factors can certainly influence market behavior, the combined seasonal evidence alongside recent momentum points modestly in favor of higher prices over the coming week.
In the data breakdown, May 2–9 returns are grouped into three 17-year categories based on the S&P’s performance from April 1–16 over the same 51-year history. In 2026, the index rose 7.09% during that April window. In the 17 prior instances where April 1–16 gains exceeded 1.68%, the S&P advanced in 15 of the following May 2–9 periods versus only 2 declines. By contrast, when April 1–16 was weaker than –0.45%, the next-week record flipped to 6 up and 11 down. More specifically, in the two historical cases most comparable to 2026—2009 and 2020, both with April gains above 5%—the S&P followed with strong May 2–9 advances of 5.89% and 3.50%, respectively.
The accompanying ratings system scales outcomes into -3 to +3 standard deviation bands on a -100 to +100 framework, with outliers down-weighted to better reflect typical behavior; readings below -50 or above +50 are treated as trade-alert conditions. While multiple non-seasonal factors can certainly influence market behavior, the combined seasonal evidence alongside recent momentum points modestly in favor of higher prices over the coming week.
Reference:
Wayne Whaley (May 2, 2026) - Whaley-AI analysis of the seasonal odds for the S&P next week (May 2–9).
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