Global stock markets are exhibiting a rare divergence where the US market is decoupling from international peers like the Australian ASX due to staggered major cycle troughs. The S&P 500 is emerging from an 18-month cycle trough (formed March 31), while the ASX and other global stock indices are still trending downward toward their equivalent troughs expected in July.
S&P 500 / NASDAQ: The outlook is predominantly bullish following the 18-month cycle trough. Price targets remain outstanding near 7,424, with the next minor softening expected during an 80-day cycle trough in late May.
S&P 500 / NASDAQ: The outlook is predominantly bullish following the 18-month cycle trough. Price targets remain outstanding near 7,424, with the next minor softening expected during an 80-day cycle trough in late May.
S&P 500 (daily candles), March to May 2026: 80-day cycle trough expected in late May.
Australian ASX: Bearish to neutral for the next two months. Expect a continued move downward or sideways as these markets seek an 18-month cycle trough positioned in late July 2026.
ASX (weekly candles), April 2025 to December 2026: 18-month cycle trough expected in late July 2026.
Gold: Cautiously bearish. While a 40-day trough has likely formed, providing a short-term bounce, the potential 9-year cycle peak in late January suggests that rallies may be limited by significant long-term down pressure.
Gold (daily candles), February to June 2026: Potential 9-year cycle peak and long-term pressure.
Bitcoin: Short-term bullish as price moves out of a 40-day trough toward a 20-week cycle peak. However, a broader correction is expected in early June as the market moves into a 20-week cycle trough.
Bitcoin (daily candles), February to June 2026: 20-week cycle trough expected in early June.
Reference:
David Hickson (May 4, 2026) - The Markets Are Diverging! Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)
David Hickson (May 4, 2026) - The Markets Are Diverging! Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)