Showing posts with label Alex Krainer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alex Krainer. Show all posts

Monday, October 27, 2025

Javier Milei's Chainsaw Massacre of the Trump Presidency? | Alex Krainer

Yesterday, Argentinians voted in midterm elections which were critical as the first nationwide referendum since President Javier Milei came to power and introduced his radical economic reforms. The recent bailout(s) from the US Treasury helped Milei’s La Libertad Avanza Party win the elections with 40.8% of the vote. However, not everyone is convinced: that result was better than even Milei’s own party hoped for.

» To bail out his [Bessent's] dumb friends on Wall Street, that’s banana republic level corruption. «
» To bail out his [Bessent's] dumb friends on Wall Street, that’s banana republic level corruption. «
 
Inevitably, haters will say that the polls were rigged which won’t help the government’s legitimacy. Either way, Argentina will remain stuck in a downward spiral. Milei’s reforms have been so staggeringly successful that keeping Argentina’s economy scotched together required repeated massive rescue packages this year.

First, on 11 April 2025, the IMF approved a $20 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) to support Milei’s awesome economic program, strengthen foreign currency reserves, and facilitate the removal of capital controls. The IMF is seldom that generous but it seems that it wasn’t generous enough that time, requiring the Trump administration to step in last month. On 24 September, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced another $20 billion bailout for Argentina.

"El Bobo de Wallstreet"—"The Dumb-Ass of Wall Street".
"El Bobo de Wallstreet""The Dumb-Ass of Wall Street".

Under the plan, the US Treasury provided Argentina with US dollars in exchange for Argentine pesos. This raised the awkward question: why did Trump’s MAGA, “America first,” administration put its taxpayers on the hook for Argentina? Bessent said that Argentina was “a systemically important US ally in Latin America,” and that the US “stands ready to do what is needed within its mandate to support Argentina. All options for stabilization are on the table.”

» [Trump] may have to distance himself from Bessent or even sack him. «
» [Trump] may have to distance himself from Bessent or even sack him. «
 
Well, OK then, but even supposing that Bessent’s justification for the huge bailout of Argentina is good enough, it didn’t seem that the bailout was big enough: the Argentine Peso continued to crash and hit a record low on Friday at nearly 1,490 pesos to the dollar. Before Milei won Argentine presidential elections on 19 November 2023, it took about 360 pesos to buy one dollar. Ever since, Argentina’s currency has been collapsing in spite of the successive IMF/US bailouts:
 
» Either way, Argentina will remain stuck in a downward spiral. «
» Either way, Argentina will remain stuck in a downward spiral. «
 
“All options” being “on the table,” on 15 October, weeks after Bessent announced the $20 billion swap, he said that he was arranging a separate $20 billion facility financed by banks and private equity. But for the deal to stick, it may still have to be backed by the US Treasury. A-gain. And in spite of President Trump himself admitting that the bailout might not work and would provide little benefit to the American people. So again: if this is a burden on the American people with no benefit to them, then why is the MAGA administration doing it? [...] As it happens, Rob Citrone is a personal friend and former colleague of Scott Bessent. Here’s what the “Popular Information” newsletter reported earlier this month:

Major Argentine media outlets are now reporting that Citrone asked Bessent for a United States rescue package. Ariel Maciel, Political Economy Editor at Perfil, a large Argentine media outlet, wrote that after the Buenos Aires elections, Citrone “returned to his friend and former colleague… to request a second bailout, this time from the very coffers Bessent manages: the US Treasury.”

CE Noticias Financieras, a major wire service in Latin America, similarly reported that after Argentine officials ran into resistance with lower-level Trump officials, “Citrone managed to connect with Bessent to get him to intervene directly.” But from there, it gets a bit worse than that still: Maciel also noted that two weeks before Bessent announced the bailout, Citrone purchased additional bonds for “almost nothing.” Maciel said the timing of Citrone’s recent purchases has raised “suspicions” that Citrone had access to “confidential information.”

If true, these arrangements present horribly bad optics for Donald Trump and his administration. If his Treasury Secretary is using his office and American taxpayers’ money to bail out his dumb friends on Wall Street, that’s banana republic level corruption. Any substance of this story will be milked for all it’s worth - and it could be worth a lot - by his political opponents at home and abroad. It doesn’t even matter whether Trump himself was aware of the nature of the bailouts.

Trump may have bought the ideological and geostrategic story about the chainsaw freedom crusader Milei and Argentina being a systemically important ally. In that case, he may have to distance himself from Bessent or even sack him. But even so, the damage has been done. It is hard to see how this won’t undermine the confidence in his administration and further erode his MAGA-base support. On top of that, corrupt dealings with Argentina and Trump’s aggressive stance toward Venezuela, has worsened his administration’s standing in the region:

» Like nobody’s ever seen before. « The MIGA-MAGA gaga crowds are diminishing, and not only in Argentina.
» Like nobody’s ever seen before. «
The MIGA-MAGA gaga crowds are diminishing, and not only in Argentina.
 
Even if you bring all your carrier strike groups to the Caribbean Sea and threaten action “like nobody’s ever seen before,” the ultimate struggle is and always will be that for the hearts and minds of the people. That struggle is being lost like nobody’s ever seen before.

 

Wednesday, March 26, 2025

Are Metals Kicking Off the Next Commodity Supercycle? | Alex Krainer

Market analysts tend to attribute great significance to the price of copper as an important leading economic indicator: if demand for copper is rising, the economy is growing (and vice versa). For that reason, they pay close attention to what "Dr. Copper" is saying. But last week, Gold also made new all time highs at around $3,050/oz. Silver rallied quite strongly as well, but it's still trading well below its ATH price, which was just shy of $50/tr.oz. in April of 2011. Here is what the whole COMEX metals complex looks like:
 
 COMEX Metals Complex (January 01, 2021 = 100)
 
There has been an overall rising trend in the metals, building gradually from late 2023. However, platinum barely moved thus far and palladium actually dropped by more than half in the last four years. The rise in Gold, Silver and Copper may be driven by inflation fears rather than economic growth. Those three metals are investors' preferred inflation hedges. Inflation hedging demand is likely what's behind the upward pressure on prices. 
 
Europe's great rearmament frenzy and the hundreds of billions of euros being allocated for it might end up adding more upward pressure to prices of industrial metals, as well as energy. In all, this will end up giving a strong boost to commodity price inflation in what could end up being a self-reinforcing cycle, triggering the next leg in the widely anticipated commodity supercycle.

US Commodity Price Index (1795 to Present)
with Major Inflation Peaks (Red Dots) & Major Inflation Troughs (Blue Dots).
Shown as 10 Year Rolling Compound Growth Rate with Polynomial Trend at Tops & Bottoms.

Long commodity cycles suggest that currency debasement and inflation may peak in the early 2040s. A commodity supercycle could reach its peak by 2045 (indicated by the last red dot), following a long cycle wave that spans approximately 55 years, with each cycle growing 5 years longer over the past 200 years. This pattern implies that the next peak will occur around 2045, 65 years after the peak in 1980.

None of this will happen overnight: the commodity supercycle is expected to span a period of 10 to 25 years, and it will be marked with many price rallies, followed by corrections and consolidations in that time. It should therefore be navigated with due caution and an iron discipline.

 

Tuesday, March 25, 2025

BlackRock Merz: "Germany is Back!" Yes, in the 1930s | Alex Krainer

On Friday, March 14, 2025, Germany's soon-to-be Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, reached a deal with the Green Party to secure a massive infrastructure and defense spending bill. "Germany's back!" said jubilant Merz. "Germany is making its great contribution to the defense of freedom and peace in Europe." The deal will exempt defense spending from the constitutional debt brake and create a €500 billion fund to finance projects outside of the normal budgetary spending. Among other things, this will enable Germany to boost aid to Ukraine.

» The EU is driving to rearm Europe and hijack ten trillion euros of European savings to militarize the old continent. «
 Full disclosure: The moustache of BlackRock Merz is not real - it was skillfully photoshopped.

Today, the Bundestag will vote on constitutional amendments that could remove fiscal restraints and unleash a massive boost to military spending, which could ultimately reach up to €1.7 trillion. How much money is that? It's a cool €20,400 per man, woman, and child in Germany. Germany is back, indeed, but not exactly in a way anyone hoped for.

It's the 1930s all over again, and it's not just Germany. In France, Emmanuel Macron too is looking to boost the military-industrial complex, along with France's nuclear arsenal and future hypersonic missiles. Across the channel, Sir Keir is obsessing about conscriptions, scotching up "coalitions of the willing," and sending British troops to Ukraine. The EU is driving to rearm Europe and hijack ten trillion euros of European savings to militarize the old continent.

 » For the naturally cautious German nation to become a bunch of cannibals, 
it first had to sink into the economic misery and moral oppression of the 1920s. «
[...] The cost of this bonanza might come in the guise of early death for their children, who'll be forced to fight our future wars as, to paraphrase Herr Merz, they make their "great contribution to the defense of freedom and peace in Europe." Of course, we can trust the slogans; Merz is a BlackRock man, and all he wants is what’s best for all of us, without regard to the many billions BlackRock invested in Ukraine. It’s not about money, you see, it’s about freedom and peace.  
 
The moment French fighter jets collided during a training session.
Pilots ‘found unconscious’ - March 25, 2025. 
 
After all, when was the blood of innocents spilled for anything less than such lofty goals like civilization, enlightenment, progress, democracy, freedom, and peace? The fact that the whole juggernaut always turns out to be so profitable for all the usual suspects must be one of those mystery virtuous cycles of civilizational progress. They mobilize capital to defend peace and freedom, and then they make out like bandits every time!
 
 
"Britain is now outstripped only by Germany in its preparations for war with Russia. The soon-to-be new German Chancellor, Merz, has told the German people that they must spend 800 billion euros more on weapons for the coming war with Russia. This is the Russia that, only two years ago, was supplying Germany with cheap and dependable gas, on which their entire industrial and economic strength had been built." — George Galloway, March 23, 2025

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