China Is a Market Economy, but Not Capitalist | Eric Xun Li

In America, you can change political parties, but you can't change the policies. In China, you cannot change the party, but you can change policies. China is a vibrant market economy, but it is not a capitalist country. Here's why: there's no way a group of billionaires could control the Politburo, as billionaires control American policy-making. So, in China, you have a market economy, but capital cannot rise above political authority. Capital does not have enshrined rights. 

White Dolphin Island, part of the Hong Kong–Zhuhai–Macau Bridge (HZMB), a key section of the 55-kilometer bridge-tunnel
megaproject ($18.8 billion) completed in 2018, connecting Hong Kong, Zhuhai, and Macau across China's Pearl River Delta.

US infrastructure would need $33 trillion (baseline) to $42 trillion (desired) of

investment through 2050 for modernization, digital economy, and maintenance.

» Capital cannot rise above political authority. «

Eric Xun Li. 

 

Epstein's BBF and his $12 Trillion "CEO Cabinet" in Beijing, is continuing to work hard

for the ultimate techno-feudal mission entrusted to him by his donors and handlers.

 

MIGA-Don understands that Chinese President Xi Jinping  

expects to see a "deal" between the US and Iran... 

 

...while dimwit Rubio is simply fascinated by

the ceiling of the Great Hall of the People.... 

 

...and Musk, seated next to BYD's CEO,

decides to be the clown of the party.

May 13, 2026.

In America, the interest of capital, and capital itself, has risen above the American nation. The political authority cannot check the power of capital. That's why America is a capitalist country, and China is not. China has been run by one single party, but the political changes that have taken place have been broader and greater than in any other major country in modern history.

 

 

See also:
Eric Xun Li (Li Shimo or 李世默, 2011) - China's political system is more flexible than US democracy.

Michael Hudson (May 14, 2026) - Did Xi Really Trade Iran for Taiwan?
Meg Rithmire, Margaret M. Pearson and Kellee S. Tsai (2023) - The State and Capitalism in China.

Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr. (2002) - The American System of Political-Economy.

The US Just Made Gold Its Number One Export | Gerry Nolan

America just made gold its number one export, and it’s pouring straight into China via Switzerland. For the last five months running, US gold shipments have topped everything else the country sells abroad. In March alone, they were 1.7 times larger than oil, twice pharma, and two and a half times aircraft engines.

 

» How exactly does this serve the United States? «

  

Most of it doesn’t even stay in America: it sails through Switzerland’s refineries and lands in Beijing’s vaults. This is highly unusual. The US doesn’t ship its oldest store of value to its biggest rival at record pace under normal conditions. Geopolitical tension, inflation hedging, and quiet signals that gold is becoming a settlement mechanism in US–China trade have flipped the script.

America is quietly surrendering the one asset that still commands respect when the dollar starts to wobble. It’s the visible symptom of a deeper reckoning: Beijing is no longer content to hold endless piles of US Treasuries or accept dollars for its oil and goods. With every sanctioned barrel and every BRICS handshake, China is forcing real settlement in the one currency that can’t be printed into oblivion. The empire ships bullion east while its navy steams around the Gulf, pretending it still runs the world. The numbers don’t lie, and neither does the direction of travel.

» Real money to the competition while the dollar-printing machine keeps spinning. «

 

So, tell how exactly does this serve the United States? It doesn’t. But it sure as hell serves China. The empire is literally melting down its patrimony and handing the real money to the competition while the increasingly worthless dollar-printing machine keeps spinning.

Gerry Nolan, May 5, 2026.

 

See also:

Martin Armstrong (May 3, 2026) - Gold and the Stock Market Will Rise Together. (video)
Ray Dalio (2025) - How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle.

How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle | Ray Dalio

The big cycle is the period from one era of great change and turbulence, in which various systems or orders are transformed, typically through fighting, to the next. Then, through that evolutionary process, we arrive at yet another period of breakdown. The last big cycle began in 1945 at the end of World War II.

 

» This will lead to dramatic changes. «

 

Within that world order, there are shorter-term cycles, like the economic and political cycles. The economic cycles have lasted for about six years from one recession to the next, and they unfold in a way where the economy is weak.  

 

 » In considering which spending to cut, when one looks at the possibilities, one quickly notices that about 70% of the non-

interest spending is considered “mandatory”—i.e., it is either contractually required or politically nearly impossible to cut. «

 

Central banks put a lot of money and credit into it. That causes markets to go up. There's a lot of spending; it gets too hot; inflation rises. They tighten monetary policy, and that causes the economy to go down into recession. Since 1945, there have been twelve and a half of those.

 

» It appears clear that, as the gaps in people’s productivity, wealth, and values grow along with

levels of dissatisfaction about how their democracies are working, it leads to more populist conflict 

and more policies that are like those in the 1905-14 and the 1933-38 periods. «

Average global levels of political polarization since 1900.

 

We sometimes don't pay as much attention to the big cycle when it reaches excesses, such as debt excesses. This is because debts rise relative to incomes. If you look at a chart of most countries, their debts keep rising relative to their incomes, but the incomes are needed to pay the debts. So, when you get to a point where the debts are high relative to the incomes, and debt service is very expensive and starts to crowd out other spending, and investors do not want to hold the debt as much because the debt does not provide them good returns and they start to sell that debt, you begin to have a change in that big debt cycle.

 

 » For the United States, the big cycles look mostly unfavorable. «

 Ray Dalio's “Power Index” for great powers and empires over time.

 

That big debt cycle typically corresponds with the big domestic political and social cycle because wealth and well-being matter to people. When there's disruption to people's wealth and well-being, then you have political disruption, such as what we are experiencing now. Consequently, there's more fighting over wealth and power, and so on. These things come together, which then creates the new conflicts, the new big conflicts: the changes and breaking down of the old orders, the old monetary orders, the old domestic political order, the geopolitical order, and such things to cause seismic shifts. These are periods of great risk for the markets and great risk for society. It's very important that they're understood.

Quoted from: 
Ray Dalio (May 28, 2025) - The Big Cycle Explained in 3 Minutes. (video)

Countries are allowing their reserves or assets to decline while acquiring gold. Central banks bought more gold 

in 2025 than in any year in history. They are not telling the public why, but their actions speak volumes.

See also:

Ray Dalio (2025) - How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle (Principles). 

Ray Dalio (October 30, 2025) - Gold is the Safest Money. 

Ray Dalio (April 7, 2025) - Don't Make the Mistake of Thinking That What's Now Happening is Mostly About Tariffs. 

Ray Dalio (March 26, 2017) - The Developed World Populism Index.

Martin Armstrong  (October 24, 2025) - "The United States Is Due for Another Massive Civil War". 

On Gold, EU Capital Controls, CBDCs, Cryptos, and Stocks | Martin Armstrong

The Gold price is driven by geopolitical uncertainty, not peace expectations, with central banks acquiring it for its neutral status against collapsing European sovereign debt. European investors buying gold while leaders escalate Russia tensions create a self-reinforcing fear cycle. This risk has prompted major European institutions to relocate gold reserves to New York and Singapore, anticipating the historical certainty of European capital controls during crises.

Gold's powerful rally is terminal, completing Wave (3) past $4,380 just as Market Vane's Bullish 

Consensus hits a historic extreme of 95, signaling an imminent, major corrective Wave (4).

Evidence of control includes the new mandatory bank account declarations—the initial phase of preventing capital flight. Further anticipated steps include regulating cryptocurrencies and implementing Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) by January 2026, likely justified by a false flag event. Existing withdrawal limits (e.g., in Spain) confirm the focus on financial control, a practice rooted in historical currency cancellations and asset restrictions during past European crises.

 Dow-Gold Ratio from 1792 to 2025:

Dow valuation relative to gold now below mid-1960s.

The Socrates model forecasts a panic cycle in 2026 with intensified conflict and Euro stress, marked by a dangerous, unprecedented convergence of the international conflict and civil unrest cycles. This systemic risk is compounded by the destabilizing effect of Europe's large, unsupported migrant population. Economically, interest rates will rise, particularly in Europe, as geopolitical risk increases debt service costs. The unsustainable US debt trajectory confirms the sovereign debt crisis will lead to government failure when debt cannot be rolled over.

Investors are now in a "private wave," prioritizing private assets over government solvency. The primary stock market bubble risk lies in AI stocks, not blue-chip indices used by institutions for large-scale capital parking. Consequently, "smart money" is relocating capital to the United States (equities and real estate). This strategic move anticipates the CBDC's ultimate function: an impenetrable barrier to capital outflows, reflective of Europe's controlling political philosophy.

Reference:
Martin Armstrong (October 20, 2025) - Insider Sources Preparing For BIG Events (video)

Charts: Robert Prechter (October 21, 2025) - History and Outlook for Gold. (video)

 

Larry Williams' outlook for gold in Q4 of 2025.

The EU planned to launch the digital euro in October 2025. Now it’s delayed to 2029, officially for “technical reasons,” 

but actually after Trump banned the Fed from issuing digital legal tender, effectively sidelining the ECB too.

See also:
David Hickson (October 20, 2025) - Hurst Cycles Update for S&P 500 and Bitcoin; Focus on Gold. 

 Martin Armstrong (August 28, 2025) - Europe's Debt Ponzi Scheme 2.0—Default or Forced Loan.

 Martin Armstrong (March 21, 2025) - Europe's Date with Destiny: Collapse by 2029 is Inevitable. 

Martin Armstrong (March 1, 2025)  - Europe Will Go to War, Lose, and Euro Will Become Extinct. 

Nikolai Kondratieff (1926) - Gold Production Mirrors the Long Wave, It Doesn’t Drive It.

Q4 2025 Outlook: Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, and Investments | Simon Hunt

Amid a cascade of geopolitical and economic developments, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit—along with bilateral meetings in Tianjin and Beijing—emerged as the pivotal moment. President Xi’s opening address concluded with a clear message: “It’s time for action.” 

 

Simon Hunt, British economist and CEO of Simon Hunt Strategic Services, is a veteran global 

strategist with 50+ years of experience advising governments and institutions on macroeconomics, 

copper markets, China, and geopolitical risk, and a pioneer in industrial metals intelligence.

Multipolar Ultimatum: SCO Summit Signals Global Realignment 

This marks a new era of geopolitical posture—one of confident unity among the East, and a tacit ultimatum to the West. BRICS is ready, but not seeking a fight. Despite the growing strength of this bloc, their message remains: “We don’t want war, we invite partnership. But if you refuse, we will proceed without you.” This stance was echoed during a high-profile military parade showcasing next-generation hardware (HERE, select English audio track). 

» The wars in the Middle East and in Europe will escalate. «

Simon Hunt, August 27, 2025.

 

The West has effectively pushed Russia and China together—and now India as well. This fulfills Brzezinski’s warning that a Russia-China alliance would mark a fatal blow to US global dominance. The realignment is now irreversible.

India, once diplomatically dancing between the West and the East, has now aligned itself firmly with BRICS. The SCO summit made this unmistakably clear through images and interactions between leaders. With China and Russia already unified, India’s inclusion forms a powerful axis comprising the world’s three largest countries by population and resource depth.

Within the SCO framework, India and Pakistan—traditionally adversarial—may find common ground. Russia maintains strong ties with India, while China supports Pakistan. Pakistan's historical alignment with the CIA may now be shifting toward China, driven by strategic and economic incentives. Even Pakistani defense leaders have acknowledged the transactional nature of their past Western alignment.

 

US Can Adopt Multipolarity Or World Will Split Into Two Blocs

The coordinated body language, messaging, and preparedness of Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Narendra Modi made it clear: Washington and its allies are being asked to join a multilateral world. Should they refuse, the world will split into two irreconcilable blocs.  

 

Historically, empires have accepted only victory or defeat, and the United States may not shift until crisis compels it. The refusal to accept a multipolar order will lead to escalating global tensions. The window for peaceful integration is closing.

 

BRICS Currency Incoming: Gold-Backed Alternative to Dollar Imminent

Within ongoing BRICS meetings, particularly between Russia and Brazil, a new currency is being discussed—one expected to be gold-backed. The Shanghai Gold Exchange is building vaults across BRICS countries, including Saudi Arabia, enabling energy trade in yuan and its conversion directly into gold, bypassing the dollar.
 

China is already settling oil trades in yuan, which Saudi Arabia converts into gold via the Shanghai exchange. A physical gold vault in Saudi Arabia would streamline this process, and with a narrowing trade imbalance, this yuan-for-gold mechanism is becoming systemic. Russia and China have already maintained such a balance for years via vaults in the People's Bank of China (PBOC).
 

Russia warns "US will use crypto to escape its $35 trillion debt". 

 

Gold at Record Highs: Short-Term Pullback Before Next Bull Leg

Gold futures reached $3,673, with silver touching $41.92. However, a short-term correction to $2,800 may occur due to the Treasury’s need to lower interest rates. This is seen as a deliberate move to accumulate gold cheaply before an eventual revaluation.

 

Silver Rising: Central Banks and BRICS Nations Accumulating

Saudi Arabia recently bought $20M worth of SLV shares. Russia has opened its first silver reserve. The US added silver to its official list of critical minerals, indicating institutional recognition of its strategic value alongside gold. The deeper message: central banks no longer trust paper assets.

 

Two-Tier US Currency Model Anticipated

The US is already in recession, and Europe is close behind. Real money supply is shrinking globally—one of the most reliable indicators of economic activity. Liquidity injections may not be enough to revive growth given looming structural banking pressures. 

 

A previously disclosed forecast from over a decade ago suggested the US could eventually introduce two dollars—a gold-backed domestic dollar and a floating offshore dollar. Technical models predict the DXY will fall to 50 by 2028, effectively doubling gold prices in dollar terms.

A potential short-term dollar rally—DXY rising from 98 to 103—could temporarily deflate gold prices. This would precede the next wave of the precious metals bull market. Treasury-driven rate cuts and liquidity injections will aim to stabilize the system ahead of 2028's deeper crisis.

American pension funds and institutions may be compelled to absorb US debt, given the exodus of foreign buyers like China. Watch India’s actions closely in this space—they will serve as a bellwether for BRICS monetary divergence. 

 

» The contrast between Chinese dynamism and the total rot and death cult of the West and its vassals defies imagination. «

Pepe Escobar, September 10, 2025. 

 

Ukraine Escalation Risk: EU3’s Miscalculated Strategy

The EU3—France, Germany, and the UK—appear poised to intensify the Ukraine conflict by inserting troops into the country, backed by US-supplied weapons and funded through European debt. This move, driven by strategic delusion, risks widening the war and deepening economic instability across Europe.

Should EU3 forces move into Ukraine, expect immediate capital controls in Europe, with global spillover via interconnected banking systems. This would shortcut any inflationary cycle and thrust the world directly into recession.

 

A leaked directive from France reportedly instructed hospitals to prepare for mass casualties in 2026, tied to potential direct conflict with Russia. Sources close to French military and intelligence circles confirm the plausibility of this scenario, citing deployments as “peacekeepers” that will effectively function as combat troops.

 

Iran-Israel Tensions Rising: Preemptive Strike Scenarios Loom

Parallel to Ukraine, the Middle East simmers. Iran is reinforcing its defenses with aid from Russia and China. Intelligence hints at potential preemptive strikes by Iran against Israel, marking a dangerous turning point. Iran’s foreign minister has dismissed negotiations with the US as traps, citing repeated betrayals masked as diplomacy.
 

» Globalization is coming to an end, the Spring and Autumn period is over, and the Warring States period is about to begin.

[...] From now on, the possibility of reconciliation between countries on this planet will increasingly cease to exist.

The entire Eurasian continent is about to engage in a battle royale, where every nation must firmly

choose sides in the process: either become a servant of the United States or be its enemy. 

[...] They can only choose to stand with us or face destruction. «

Chinese opinion regarding Israeli bombing of Qatar on September 9, 2025.

 

Despite its proximity to conflict, the UAE may be spared thanks to deep trade ties with Israel, cultural links with Iran, and the presence of a modern Iranian community. Any Iranian retaliation may be surgically limited to American military installations, avoiding broader damage in the UAE.

Climate Shift Confirmed: From Warming to Cooling

Melting Greenland ice is releasing cold freshwater into the Atlantic, disrupting ocean currents. Though silenced by institutions like NOAA, internal research suggests we are entering a cooling phase, not warming. The agricultural and economic implications are immense.

Food Inflation Crisis: Cold Weather, and Dust Bowl Patterns Collide

Food prices are already spiking. The FAO food index rose 7.6% YoY in July. Fertilizer shortages and extreme weather may cause one of the coldest winters in 50 years in the US Midwest. Add to this the return of the 90-year Dust Bowl cycle, and the outcome is severe crop failures and soaring food inflation.

 

Demographics vs. Growth: Global Economic Model Faces Existential Challenge 

The world's demographic peak (around 9 billion) and subsequent decline challenge the existing economic model based on infinite growth. However, this transformation will unfold over decades—not in the immediate 5-year cycle.

 

Short-Term Strategy: Long-Term Investment Now Extremely Risky

In the current fractured world order, long-term investments—by individuals or institutions—are hazardous. A global recession or depression is likely by 2028, with paper assets poised for a collapse. However, if geopolitical escalations are avoided, equities and base metals may experience a bull market from mid-2025 to 2028.

Hungary and Slovakia are likely to resist full EU alignment and avoid deeper conflict involvement. These countries, being semi-detached from Brussels, may serve as safe havens during broader European turmoil.

 

Individuals should prepare immediately. Stock deep freezers, convert garden space into vegetable beds, and plan for prolonged food cost spikes. This is a practical, immediate defense against inflation and disruption.

Reference:
Simon Hunt (September 9, 2025) - Elite Insiders Preparing For 2 MASSIVE Events Coming In Months (here's what they are).(video)

See also: 

Simon Hunt (January 12, 2025) - Markets Amidst Trump 2.0: Geopolitics & Geoeconomics in 2025. 

Simon Hunt (September 9, 2025) - 10-Year Treasury Yields over 10% by 2027. (video)
Simon Hunt (September 4, 2025) - Sobering Outlook on the next Global Reset: Crash before 2027. (video)
Simon Hunt (September 1, 2025) - Global Economic Outlook: Europe’s Destiny, British False Flag Event, and BRICS. (video)

Tecnología Futura (August 31, 2025) - China's new weapon that could destroy the US in seconds. (video)

State Central Banking vs Private Central Banking | Wen Tiejun

Let's delve into the core reasons underlying the strategic confrontation between the People's Republic of China and the United States of America, as this unveils a significant systemic discrepancy: [...] The issuance of the renminbi (RMB) is fundamentally based on the authority of the Chinese government, specifically through the People's Bank of China (PBC). The basis for the issuance of the renminbi is definitely not gold. The reason this money is valuable is because it is a sovereign currency issued by the state and backed by state authority. Empowering a sovereign currency establishes credit. The currency creates credit, and the sole resource available is political authority. Thus, political authority, governmental power, and the administration in control align with the currency system.

Wen Tiejun (温铁军) is a Chinese agricultural economist and a professor at the Renmin

University of China, best known for his studies on the Three Rural Issues in Mainland China.

 

On the other hand, the source of the US dollar's credit is an institution established by private bankers, not a country. Pay attention, this difference matters: The US dollar is actually issued by an institution called the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve is neither an official entity nor a government institution; instead, it is an organization operated by private bankers. This particular organization possesses the authority to issue the national currency and determines the financial policy of the United States, which the government then implements.

 

 

» The root cause of global chaos is financial capital globalization, which is

supported by military hegemony. « Wen Tiejun's complete discourse video.  

 

This occurrence is quite rare across the globe, both in terms of nations and systems. In the majority of countries, it is the political power of the state that grants authority to its national currency, forming a sovereign currency. In a select number of nations, such as the United States, institutions are established by private banking entities, and the government subsequently enacts the policies of these private banker collectives.

[...] Therefore, throughout the extensive history of the United States, numerous influential presidents have attempted to reclaim monetary authority. All of them ultimately failed. Almost every president who was resolute in their determination to reclaim monetary authority ended up deceased, including the widely recognized Kennedy assassination. These events all share similar demands to restore monetary rights back to the government, yet none of these plans have been fully realized.

[...] China continues to maintain its national control over financial capital. For what specific purpose? In recent years, when China faced global crises and a decline in exports, the Chinese government mainly relied on national finance, investing in infrastructure that may not yield immediate profits. A straightforward example is the allocation of funds for the construction of roads and railways in rural, mountainous, and even desert regions. All these investments cannot be recovered in the short term, and it's also difficult to recover them in the long term. So, should we invest? We should, because if we don't, businesses will have no market and workers will become unemployed. On the other hand, the government would have to use its finances to pay for unemployment benefits. Rather than doing that, it's better to invest. 

» The United States exploits the world's wealth with the help of "seigniorage." It costs only about 17 cents to produce a 100 dollar bill, but other countries had to pony up 100 dollar of actual goods in order to obtain one. It was pointed out more than half a century ago, that the United States enjoyed exorbitant privilege and deficit without tears created by its dollar, and used

the worthless paper note to plunder the resources and factories of other nations. The hegemony of the US dollar 

is the main source of instability and uncertainty in the world economy. «

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, 2023. 

[...] I perceive this as one of Trump's most proactive and forward-thinking policies—to focus on the advancement of infrastructure development. His most significant challenge is that the US lacks the so-called state-owned enterprises (SOEs) similar to those in China. Additionally, it doesn't have a state-owned banking system. China's system uses state banks to receive currency from the government, which is directly paid to state-owned enterprises. These enterprises then directly engage in infrastructure construction, maintaining China's economic growth and sustaining employment. The US uses private banks to issue more currency to buy government bonds, which then leads to a virtual capital expansion, with two hands shifting the crisis to the whole world.

[...] Analyzing this with American theory suggests China's state-owned banks and state-owned enterprises are inefficient. They don't provide tax revenue and occupy a large amount of capital. But just because financial resources are utilized doesn't mean nothing is produced. A significant amount of wealth is indeed generated, but this wealth manifests in the form of airports, seaports, train stations, highways, and high-speed railway systems. None of these investments can generate returns in the immediate short term. Consequently, a substantial amount of capital in China's state-owned banks is currently tied up. According to general free-market economic theory, those that can't be recovered soon should all go bankrupt. As long as you genuinely and sincerely execute what is purportedly stated in the media today, China's economy should have gone bankrupt long ago because its large investments can't be recovered quickly.

» I think he [US Fed chairman Jerome Powell] is a very stupid person, actually. «
Not-calling-the-shots POTUS, July 13, 2025.

 

[...] How Trump might approach the situation? He doesn't have China's methods. So, how will he do it? By relying on private bankers to reform America's railways? How long will it take to recoup the investment? Why would private individuals invest in rebuilding American roads and airports? Private investment is dropping. This is similar to what's happening in China: whenever there's an economic crisis, China's private investment decline is inevitable. So, how do you counter it? You have to rely on state investment to push it up. One goes down, the other goes up. That's how it is. 

 

» The US uses private banks to issue more currency to buy government bonds, which then 
leads to a virtual capital expansion, with two hands shifting the crisis to the whole world. «

 

A significant number of individuals are critical of China's system. I don't intend to imply anything else; I'm merely suggesting that you observe the actual impact. I also don't wish to defend this so-called closed system of China because I equally dislike this bureaucratic system, but it actually maintains the nation's foundational employment and crucial economic development.

  

Reference:
Wen Tiejun (2021) - Money, War, Supremacy: The Root Cause of Global Chaos. (video)

See also:
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China (2023) - US Hegemony and Its Perils. 

Stephen Mitford Goodson (2019) - A History of Central Banking and the Enslavement of Mankind.
Murray N. Rothbard (1994) - The Case Against the Fed. (the legal monopoly of counterfeiting)

G. Edward Griffin (1994) - The Creature from Jekyll Island. 

Eustace Mullins (1952) - The Secrets of the Federal Reserve.

Ezra Pound (1939) - What is Money for?

Europe's Debt Ponzi Scheme 2.0—Default or Forced Loan | Martin Armstrong

During the Panic of 1893, which became a global contagion, Italy couldn't roll over its short-term debt, as it was unable to sell new bonds to pay off maturing ones. When faced with circumstances similar to what we see today, Italy did not officially default in the classic sense of failing to pay. Still, it executed a coercive debt restructuring that is widely considered a selective default or soft default in 1893–1894. This is what we refer to as a forced loan.

» We are living in a perpetual Ponzi scheme. « 

 

Italy was facing a run on its short-term debt and unable to roll over the maturing paper because there were no buyers. The Italian government, led by Prime Minister Francesco Crispi, did not formally declare a default. Instead, it passed a law (Legge 11 luglio 1894, n. 386) that forcibly converted the short-term Buoni del Tesoro into a new long-term bond. The law mandated that holders of the short-term Treasury notes could not be repaid in cash upon maturity. Instead, they were forced to exchange their maturing short-term paper for a new long-term government bond, called the “Rendita Italiana 5%” (5% Italian Annuity).

Where inmates run the asylum, insanity rules.

This new bond had a 5% coupon but was issued at a price below par (effectively giving a higher yield to compensate, somewhat, for the forced nature of the deal. Crucially, it was a perpetual bond, meaning it had no final maturity date.

The Italian government unilaterally changed the terms of its debt. Investors lent money for 30 days, expecting to be repaid in cash at the end of that term. The government broke that promise. Investors had no choice. They could not get their cash back; their only option was to accept the new long-term instrument. While they received a new security, it was illiquid (perpetual), and its value was uncertain. This action caused significant financial losses for many Italian banks and citizens who held the paper.

I would expect that Europe will do this when it can no longer issue new debt to pay off its old debt. We are living in a perpetual Ponzi scheme. There is only one way this ends, and that is a default or a forced loan. 
 

Reference:
Martin Armstrong (August 28, 2025)  - What Happens When Governments Cannot Sell Their Debt?

 

» Europe needs war as a distraction, and stablecoins are, in fact, war bonds. « 

 Martin Armstrong, August 28, 2025.

 

See also:

Martin Armstrong (July 17, 2025) - Trump’s GENIUS Act Sets the Stage for US CBDC.

 Martin Armstrong (March 21, 2025) - Europe's Date with Destiny: Collapse by 2029 is Inevitable.

Martin Armstrong (March 1, 2025) - Europe Will Go to War around May 15, Lose, and Euro Will Become Extinct.

TPR (March 11, 2025) - The ECB's Dystopian Digital Euro Dictatorship Set to Launch in October 2025.