Europe
is becoming the biggest loser in the Ukraine conflict, despite having
fostered closer ties with Russia following the collapse of the Soviet
Union. Europe is now actively cutting these ties in an effort to align
with the US policies aimed at punishing Russia.
But the
price is dear. The largest economy prior to the Ukraine war, Europe is
now facing the prospect of political divisions and security threats. Its
insensible actions are not only compromising Europe's autonomy and
increasing its military reliance on the US, but also disrupting its
energy supply chains, in which Russia played an important part. So what
does the US stand to gain from this situation?
China called the Nord Stream pipeline blast of September 26, 2022 an
Quite
a lot. In a scenario where Europe is on friendly terms with Russia and
economically, militarily, and politically strengthened, Europe poses too
significant a challenge for the US to handle. Hence, the estrangement
between Europe and Russia is one of the US's most crucial strategic
goals. As anticipated, Europe is now gripped by fear of Russian
expansion and Russia fears NATO's eastward movement. And this prisoner's
dilemma is further exacerbated by US intervention.
It
is evident that the European leaders struggle to discern who their
allies and rivals truly are. It is their crucial mistake to view Russia,
a potential provider of economic strength and security assurances, as a
threat, and the US, a saboteur of the Euro and Europe's regional
stability, as a friend. The rationale behind Europe's alignment with the
US stems from their belief that Europe holds a prominent position
within the US-led uni-polar world.
But time and again, the US disregarded and even intentionally harmed European interests.
Europe's political stage is now occupied by liberal leftists whose
obstinacy to ideology and blind loyalty to the US have deprived them of
strategic foresight. If Europe fails to awaken to the reality, more
losses will inevitably befall the European people. Acting as a suicide
bomber in the Ukraine conflict will achieve nothing but harm Europe
itself. Europe's tragedy is rooted in its failure to recognize the
significance of the Ukraine conflict. What we are witnessing is merely
the precursor to a brand new world order, an order of multi-polarity
which neither the US nor Europe can prevent.
If
the current situation continues, Ukraine's status as an independent
country will be called into question. At first glance, the US appears to
be the biggest winner. To avoid instability, numerous European
financial assets and capital are now being redirected to the US,
bolstering its pandemic-stricken economy and positioning it as the
best-performing developed country. Additionally, Europe is once again
brought under the American security umbrella, abandoning its pursuit of
strategic independence. Furthermore, the US has profited during the war
by selling its own energy at high prices to Europe through sanctions on
Russia's energy exports. However, when considering the bigger picture in
the long run, the Russia-Ukraine conflict significantly weakens the
US-dominated world order and damages the credibility of the US. To many
countries, the war exposed the unreliability of the US and the
precariousness of the uni-polar world order it perpetuates.
Russia,
on the other hand, is making leaps and bounces despite its losses. It
has already achieved the initial goals outlined at the beginning of the
special military operation. By deepening cooperation with China, India,
and the global south, Russia's economy was able to withstand the blow
after decoupling from the West. Two years into the war and nearly 20,000
sanctions from 48 countries, Russia maintains relative political and
social stability, even experiencing a 3.6% GDP growth in 2023. And most
importantly, through this war, Russia is reshaping its image and status
as a formidable major power in the emerging multi-polar order.
Therefore, in the long run, Russia may emerge as the real long-term
winner of this conflict; a conflict that draws the curtains on the
hegemonic uni-polar world order dictated by the US.
Military strategist Professor Wang Xiangsui is a retired senior colonel in the People's Liberation Army. Wang's 1999 book
