Different Projection Techniques for the S&P 500 Transitioning into Q2

 S&P 500 (daily bars) - Elliott Wave projection with a final retracement into the end of March, 

followed by a decline into mid-May, below the August 2024 low.

S&P 500 is ready for the next, and final leg up. With price confirming a bullish WXY model at Friday's 5,603 low, I am expecting one more leg up under the 2nd wave targeting 5,750-5,825 to set up for the ultra bearish 3/4/5 wave sequence.

S&P 500 (3-day bars) - Elliott Wave count projecting a decline into late Q1 2026, 

below the October 2023 low.

 

The 16-year rally ended at the 6,147 high with a bearish ending diagonal formation. We're now in the early stages of a catastrophic decline, and price is expected to break this 6-month range escalating much lower. Although I mirrored the path of the 2007-09 crash, this week's rally could easily be the last chance to sell before a 40-60% decline. 

Reference:

Trigger Trades, March 22 & 23, 2025.

 

 

Late-March Rebound: Over the past 20 years, the S&P 500 has risen 18 times between March 23 and April 27.
Bullish from March 23 Low to April 27 High (2004-2023). Average move higher: +4.78% (during 18 out of 20 years, up = 90%).

 

2025 Roadmap for the S&P 500 based on Spectrum Cycle Analysis,

with the ideal Q1 low being March 28, 2025, which will set up the final leg up. 

Namzes on X, January 6, 2025.

 

S&P 500 projection for 2025 (timing, not magnitude) with seasonally strong windows in the bottom panel.

Namzes on X, January 6, 2025.

 

Weekly S&P 500 with nominal 180 weeks / 41-Month Kitchin Cycle topping | October 23, 2024

 

Weekly Preview for March 24-28: Short term cycles - early next week 20d low then higher,
Krasi, March 22, 2025.

 80 Day Low in mid March, and 20 Week Low in mid May.

David Hickson (March 10, 2025) - S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Update.

 

S&P 500 Index (daily bars) vs 56 Year Cycle.

2025 in J.M. Funk’s '56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression'.

See also:

¡¡ David Hickson (March 24, 2025) - S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Update: Targets and Levels to Watch. (video) !!

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 21, 2025) - End of Q1 – Prone to Volatility and Weakness since 1990.

TPR (March 11, 2025) - S&P 500 Premium and Discount Levels in the Current 18-Month Cycle.

  Lars von Thienen (December 8, 2024) - The Cliff - Don't Be a Lemming. 

Lars von Thienen (November 1, 2024) - The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle Topping Patterns in US Stocks.

 TPR (December 10, 2024) - 2025 in J.M. Funk’s '56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression'.