Rather
turbulent in recent years, with wild fluctuations and large gains and
losses, March has been experiencing some significant end-of-quarter
hits. In post-election years since 1950, March has tended to open
strongly, and this strength has generally persisted until shortly after
mid-month (as indicated by the dashed arrow below). At that point, the
major indexes lost momentum and closed out March with some choppy
trading. In contrast, over the past 21 years, March has trended lower
through mid-month before rallying in the second half.
March strong early-month, mid-month losses with choppy trading,
often rally after Quadruple Witching (March 21), likely sharp decline the week after.
often rally after Quadruple Witching (March 21), likely sharp decline the week after.
March is a particularly busy month. It marks the end of the first quarter, which brings with it quarterly Quadruple Witching (Friday, March 21) and an abundance of portfolio maneuvers from Wall Street. In recent years, March Quad-Witching Weeks have been quite bullish, but the week after has been nearly the exact opposite, with the DJIA down 22 of the last 37 years—and often down sharply.
See also: