André Barbault's Cyclic Index and S&P 500 Behavior | Sergey Tarassov

André Barbault's Index of Cyclical Variations or Cyclic Index measures the balance between waxing and waning angular separations among planets, analogous to lunar phases—where increasing (waxing) angles are associated with more optimistic conditions and decreasing (waning) angles with more pessimistic conditions. The same principle is extended across all planetary angles, with heliocentric configurations preferred.

  

Heliocentric Cyclic Index vs. S&P 500.

Statistical analysis indicates that this index accounts for approximately 6.4% of S&P 500 price variation, representing a modest but notable explanatory contribution for a single indicator. Recent periods show that the index has maintained a consistent relationship with market movements. Further refinement, including the use of neural network methods, may enhance its ability to model optimistic and pessimistic market regimes.

Reference:
Sergey Tarassov (June 22, 2026) - Index of Cyclical Variations and S&P 500 Behavior.

The Geography of Violence | All Recorded Battles in History

» War is father of all, and king of all.
He renders some gods, others men; he makes some slaves, others free.
We must know that war is common to all and strife is justice,
and that all things come into being and pass away through strife. «
 
Heraclitus (c. 500 BC), Fragments 53 & 80.

Reference:
NodeGoat (2023) - Battles in History. (interactive website) 

See also:
Edward R. Dewey (1957) - Systematic Reconnaissance of Cycles in War.

André Barbault (1967) - The Cyclic Index of Global Tension, Conflict and War 1900 - 2100.
André Barbault (1967) - Les Astres et l'Histoire.

Cyclic Index of Global Tension, Conflict and War | Max Tension in March 2022

 

André Barbault’s Cyclic Index of Global Tension, Conflict, and War comprises the cumulative angular distances between all planets from Jupiter through Pluto. When the graph reaches a low point, it signifies the presence of one or more conjunctions among these five outer bodies—alignments that tend to concentrate global turbulence. Conversely, an ascending graph indicates a progression toward planetary oppositions. While these low points reflect eras of heightened international, economic, and social tension, the peaks typically forecast the opposite. Notably, the index marked its lowest point of the entire 21st century in mid-March 2022.

 

See also: 

TPR (2012) - André Barbault's Cyclic Index of Global Tension, Conflict, and War.  

TPR (2015) - André Barbault's Cyclic Index of Global Tension, Conflict, and War 1900 - 2100. 

TPR (2015) - Barbault's Cyclic Index and Ganeau's Index of Cyclic Equilibrium from 1700 to 2050. 

TPR ( 2015) - Claude Ganeau's Index of Cyclic Equilibrium from 1900 to 2100. 

Barbault's Cyclic Index and Ganeau's Index of Cyclic Equilibrium | 1700 - 2050

In André Barbault's Cyclic Index better times are at the highs, bad times at the lows. In Claude Ganeau's Index of Cyclic Equilibrium general mundane circumstances are considered to be better above the zero-line. Periods below the zero-line are generally less favorable and oftentimes coincide with major military conflicts. See also HERE + HERE

 

 

 

 

 

See also:

TPR (2015) - André Barbault's Cyclic Index of Global Tension, Conflict and War 1900 - 2100. 

TPR (2012) - André Barbault's Cyclic Index of Global Tension, Conflict, and War. 

TPR ( 2015) - Claude Ganeau's Index of Cyclic Equilibrium from 1900 to 2100. 

TPR (2022) - Cyclic Index of Global Tension, Conflict and War: Maximum Tension in March 2022.

André Barbault's Cyclic Index of Global Tension, Conflict and War 1900 - 2100

André Barbault’s Cyclic Index of Global Tension, Conflict, and War from 1900 to 2100.

 

André Barbault’s Cyclic Index of Global Tension, Conflict, and War represents a composite of the angular distances among the five outer planets. Within the framework of mundane astrology, Pluto, Neptune, and Uranus are identified as "collective planets," as their slow-moving cycles correspond to broad cultural and historical epochs. In contrast, Saturn and Jupiter are categorized as "social planets," which relate more directly to sociopolitical and economic developments. 

 

André Barbault's original Cyclic Index (Indice de concentration planetaire) for the 20th century.

 

See also: 

TPR (2015) - Barbault's Cyclic Index and Ganeau's Index of Cyclic Equilibrium from 1700 to 2050. 

TPR ( 2015) - Claude Ganeau's Index of Cyclic Equilibrium from 1900 to 2100. 

TPR (2022) - Cyclic Index of Global Tension, Conflict, and War: Maximum Tension in March 2022.

André Barbault's Cyclic Index of Global Tension, Conflict, and War

André Barbault’s Cyclic Index represents one of the most rigorous attempts to quantify the relationship between planetary movements and the macro-scale tides of human history, particularly regarding the universal concern for war and peace. While the technique was originally designed by the French astrologer Henri-Joseph Gouchon as a way of plotting planetary activity to reflect periods of stability or turbulence, it was Barbault who publicized, refined, and became the recognized leader in the field. 

 

André Barbault's Cyclic Index of Global Tension, Conflict and War, 1980 to 2025.

 

This concept is rooted in mundane astrology, yet its construction is purely mathematical, focusing on the geocentric longitude of the five outer planets from Jupiter to Pluto. Barbault sought to move away from the interpretation of individual aspects toward a holistic, quantitative measurement of what he termed planetary concentration or dispersal. He laid out the technical framework for this model in his 1967 foundational work Les Astres et l'Histoire, published by Jean-Jacques Pauvert, and expanded it in his 1979 definitive textbook L’Astrologie Mondiale.

The calculation of the index is straightforward and reveals a profound geometric pattern. It is the sum of the angular degree distances between all ten possible pairs of the five outer planets: Jupiter to Saturn, Jupiter to Uranus, Jupiter to Neptune, Jupiter to Pluto, Saturn to Uranus, Saturn to Neptune, Saturn to Pluto, Uranus to Neptune, Uranus to Pluto, and Neptune to Pluto. To track this over time, all degree distances are measured and totaled for every year involved. Barbault emphasized that one should use a consistent date for every measurement, such as January 1st, to ensure technical accuracy. Barbault refined Gouchon’s original work—which only applied the method to the "big four" planets—by incorporating Pluto to increase the model's resolution.

Barbault’s core hypothesis posits that when the outer planets cluster together in the same region of the sky—a phenomenon driven by multiple concurrent conjunctions—the sum drops significantly, creating a deep trough. These low points reflect conditions of turbulence, intense global tension, and major wars. As the graph ascends, it indicates the planets are moving toward oppositions, leading to peaks. These peaks typically coincide with periods of international stability, economic expansion, and general optimism. The logic is that the concentration of these heavy planetary energies focuses collective human experience into a narrow, pressurized window, leading to the collapse of old orders. However, the index does not make exact predictions; rather, it shows the overall climate of world events and the economy. A recognized weakness in the graph is that it contains no representation for square aspects, which can occasionally trigger outbreaks of conflict even when the index is not at a trough.

Les Astres et l'Histoire, 1967.

Historically, the correlation of the index is striking. It showed massive collapses leading into 1914 and 1939, aligning with the outbreaks of both World Wars. A particularly deep trough occurred in the early 1980s during a period of heightened Cold War tension and economic restructuring. Barbault famously used this model to forecast the 1989-1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, identifying a major convergence of outer planet cycles during that window. Barbault often emphasized that the specific planets driving a trough dictate its quality; for instance, a trough dominated by Saturn and Pluto tends to be more restrictive and grim, whereas one involving Jupiter and Uranus might involve more explosive, sudden revolutions.

L'Astrologie Mondiale, 1979.

Barbault’s career was marked by significant professional influence. Between 1953 and 1967, he served as the vice-chairman of the Centre International d'Astrologie (CIA). In 1967, he undertook the first-ever application of computer technology to astrology through Ordinastral Astroflash, an international business that placed his work within the electronic orbit. Since that same year, Barbault also served as the chief editor of the magazine L'Astrologue, published by Éditions Traditionnelles. 

See also:

TPR (2015) - Barbault's Cyclic Index and Ganeau's Index of Cyclic Equilibrium from 1700 to 2050. 

TPR ( 2015) - Claude Ganeau's Index of Cyclic Equilibrium from 1900 to 2100. 

TPR (2022) - Cyclic Index of Global Tension, Conflict and War: Maximum Tension in March 2022.

Robert D. Doolaard (2006) - Waves of Wars 1700–2000.

 André Barbault (1993) - L'avenir du monde selon l'astrologie.

André Barbault (1990) - History of a Prediction.