Kondratiev Waves Aligned with Solar Cycles | Leonty Miroshnichenko

If cosmophysical periods influence the climate, changes in crop yields, epidemic disasters, and creative productivity, it is difficult to imagine that these rhythms would not be reflected in the economy. The economic cycles discussed in modern literature on the dynamics of economic indicators are well-known space (natural) periods. It was through the study of variations in economic indicators that it was first understood that the dynamics of such a complex system are not described by a single cycle or rhythm, but by a set of cycles, i.e., a spectrum.

Data on Economic Conditions ("Kondratiev waves") versus Solar Activity (SA) shows that the turning points of

economic fluctuations are closely aligned with some maximums of the Wolf number. The dates of SA maxima

and minima prior to 1749 were reconstructed from indirect historical and geophysical data.

The spectrum of economic cycles exhibits a number of peaks, with the most significant periods being: 3.5, 5.5, 8.0, 11.0, 18.0, 20–22, and 54 years. Short periods (e.g., the 3.5 year Kitchin cycle) can have certain regional characteristics. On the other hand, long economic cycles must apply to the entire global economy. These include the long "Kondratiev waves" (54 years), named after the prominent Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev (1892–1938). The graph above shows data on economic conditions ("Kondratiev waves") versus solar activity (SA). The turning points of economic fluctuations closely align with some maximums of the Wolf number. The dates of solar activity maxima and minima prior to 1749 were reconstructed from indirect historical and geophysical data.

Observed and predicted ​Solar Cycle Sunspot Number in the top chart, and F10.7cm Radio Flux in the bottom chart, 2013-2036.

Updated December 2, 2024.

The "Kondratiev waves" have been clearly traced in the world economic system since the early eighteenth century, appearing in many indicators simultaneously—such as industrial production, wholesale prices, and the number of innovations in industry and agriculture. Although the parameters of these fluctuations change slightly, reflecting evolutionary changes in the world economy, the cyclical nature persists to the present day. There are various theories about the origin and nature of these fluctuations, which indicates that the issue remains unresolved. In this book, we are primarily concerned with the possible connection between the "Kondratiev waves" and solar activity and ecology. In other words, the question arises: Is there synchronism between the peaks of the "Kondratiev waves" and the cosmophysical parameters?

» On average, the difference between the peaks and troughs of solar activity and economic cycles does not exceed six months. «

88% of recessions since the 1800s and 100% of major financial crises occurred during the downturn of sunspot cycles. 

The answer is illustrated in the first graph above. It shows the positions of the extreme points of the long "Kondratiev waves"—their maxima and minima (peaks and dips). These points are determined by analyzing a large dataset characterizing the state of the world economy since the end of the seventeenth century. In this analysis, we considered the results obtained by representatives of various economic schools, each using their own independent economic indicators (indices). The turning points in the trends of the global economy are marked with arrows, and circles indicate the positions of the solar activity (SA) maxima. Dark circles represent those SA maxima located near the extreme points of the "Kondratiev waves," while light circles represent the others.

As shown in the first graph, in only two cases out of 11, the difference between the dates of the black circles (SA) and the dates of the economic peaks and troughs is 3 years. On average, the difference does not exceed half a year. Thus, changes in the world economy are clearly associated with variations in solar activity: when trends in the development of the world economy change, they are almost certain to occur at the maximum of the solar cycle. The pendulum of the economy swings in sync with solar fluctuations. Whether economic oscillations with a half-century period are self-oscillations or exogenous rhythms is secondary. It is evident that the world rhythm is introduced into the economy by Nature.

Quoted from:
Leonty Miroshnichenko (2023) - Solar-Terrestrial Relations. From Solar Activity to Heliobiology (original Russian edition 2011).

 

IZMIRAN (ИЗМИРАН – Institute of Radioastronomy and Applied Physics) is an institute within the

Russian Academy of Sciences (Российская академия наук), located near Moscow.

 

The average 11-year sunspot cycle can vary in length, ranging from eight to fourteen years. This cycle occurs due to the Sun’s magnetic poles flipping—north becomes south and vice versa—approximately every 11 years. About 11 years later, the poles reverse again, making the full solar cycle actually a 22-year phenomenon. 

The Solar Cycle (NASA, 2011).
 

See also:

Mikhail Gorbanev (2016) - Solar Activity and Economic Recessions. 

 TPR (2018) - S&P 500 Index vs Sunspots. Transition from Solar Cycle #24 to Solar Cycle #25.

TPR (2012) - The Kondratieff Cycle and Its Subdivisions.

Solar Activity and "Violence-from-Below" Events | Suitbert Ertel

Alexander Chizhevsky's 1921 claim of a relationship between solar activity and revolutionary mass behavior is examined. A Master Index of Violence-from-Below Events (MIVE) is compiled, consisting of 2,101 events and 4,000 references extracted from 18 historical sources (chronologies, timelines, etc.) covering the period A.D. 1700–1985. [...] The relationship between solar activity and violence-from-below is found to be highly significant (p < .001). 

A.L. Chizhevsky (1897–1964), Russian scientist, Soviet Gulag prisoner, and founder of heliobiology, a field dedicated to
studying the impact of solar activity on biological, social, and psychological processes. His work spanned experimental
biophysics and hematology (structural analysis of blood). In addition to his scientific pursuits, Chizhevsky wrote poetry,
engaged in literary criticism, and taught history and archaeology.

 

At the 1926 Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society, an American participant delivered a paper written in 1921 by Alexander Leonidovich Chizhevsky, who was then a 24-year old Russian scholar. Its bombastic title "The Influence of Cosmic Factors Upon the Behavior of Organized Human Masses, as Well as Upon the Universal Historical Process" appeared laughable. The author claimed that occurrences of social unrest, rebellions, upheavals, revolutions are significantly correlated with solar activity, i.e., with the ups and downs of magnetic turbulence of the sun. In his own words: "The greatest revolutions, wars and other mass movements which have created nations, have given origin to the turning points of history, and have shaken the life of humanity and entire continents, tend to coincide with the periods of the maxima of the sun’s activity". [...] Since 1958, after being rehabilitated from Stalin's Gulag system, Chizhevsky has been acknowledged in Russia and elsewhere as the founder of the discipline of "heliobiology." By then some of his claims had appeared less vaunting and more admissible, especially in medical science circles: Typhus, influenza pandemics, cholera, and other epidemic diseases, as well as the morbidity of animals, were alleged to be correlated with solar activity. Chizhevsky's major claim, however, the correlation of turning points in human history with solar maximum conditions, was deemed unthinkable.

 

Secrets of the Sun — A.L. Chizhevsky's legacy.

[...] In line with Chizhevsky’s hypothesis it is assumed that human behavior, if correlated at all with solar activity, would turn spontaneous and impulsive under helioactive conditions among many people at the same time. The probability of mass activation would increase. Therefore all events indicating "violence-from-below" are regarded pertinent, i.e. spectacular attempts by large groups of people at enforcing changes of their living conditions. The category "violence from below" has been adopted from Johan Galtung who distinguished between (1) violence from below (revolutionary violence); (2) violence from above (counter-revolutionary); (3) horizontal violence between equals over some incompatible goals; and (4) random violence, related neither to interests nor to goals. 

 

» An event is coded violence-from-below if the chronology
refers to it by one or more of the above verbal labels. «

 

 » The idea of Q-analysis is simple. If historical events are independent of solar activity, their temporal distances from
the nearest solar maximum should be random. Even though a revolution might coincide with a solar maximum due

to chance, this should occur relatively infrequently. For larger numbers of historical turning points, temporal distances

from solar maximum years should not differ from chance expectation. The same applies for solar minimum years. «

Unlike Chizhevsky, we did not lump events of Galtung's four categories together. Thus, all horizontal violence acts were not considered, such as territorial or international wars, which are generally not launched by the people but by institutional authorities. Violence from above was also excluded, except if such occurrences indicated preceding acts of violence from below. Galtung's random violence events (Category 4), such as massacres and pogroms—however rare expressions of mass unrest—were also included. [...] Palace revolts, coups d’états, and similar instances of violence without involvement of the ruled masses remained unconsidered, as well as individual acts of violence directed against authorities without apparent involvement of a larger population (e.g., assassination, terror acts). [...]

 

Conclusions

Evidence has been accumulated in this study supporting the claim of Chizhevsky of a connection between solar activity and violence-from-below. A comprehensive Master Index of Violence Events (the MIVE database) was compiled, and influence of bias was strictly excluded. The procedure of analysis circumvented methodological artifacts arising from autocorrelations. In addition, the distribution generated by randomizations allowed for straightforward significance judgments. Finally, results obtained from genuine data were compared with results obtained from various controls. It turned out that the hypothesized connection between solar activity and violence-from-below is positive (the more solar activity, the more social violence), and the correlation is generally not lagged. 

 

 » The more solar activity, the more social violence, and the correlation is generally not lagged. «

A p-value of less than 0.001 indicates the very strong statistical correlation between solar activity and violence-from-below, 

making the result highly reliable, with the likelihood of the relationship occurring by chance being less than 0.1%.

 

 Observed and predicted ​Solar Cycle Sunspot Number in the top chart,
and F10.7cm Radio Flux in the bottom chart, 2013-2036.

 

 Experimental Solar Cycle 25 Prediction, updated December 2, 2024.

In sum, history text references to violence-from-below events tend to coincide with the years of maximum solar activity. However, a number of ensuing problems need to be solved:

1. Physical Variables: Which variables are actually effective? Are solar emissions responsible? Are mediators like geophysical disturbances or climate involved? Solar activity effects on the world’s climate are too small and too slow to explain unlagged revolutionary behavior. Geomagnetic influence is somewhat more likely, but cycles of geomagnetism peak about two years later than solar cycles. Cosmic radiation, whose intensity is attenuated by solar magnetism, might be an effective variable.
2. Physiological Variables: Which psychobiological structures underlying violence-from-below are responsive to such hidden stimulation? Neural structures for sensory or subsensory perception, for emotional processes, or for cognitive processes?
3. Effect Size: How strong are solar correlated (external) factors compared to social-political dynamics (internal factors)? The external factors are apparently strong enough to emerge despite internal political dynamics. If the external effects were weak, they would be diluted.
4. Effect Limitations: Why is solar maxima not always associated with violence-from-below? Why did high violence-from-below sometimes emerge despite low solar activity? Historical incidences of unexpectedly high or low violence — “unexpectedly” in view of deviating solar conditions — might be of foremost interest for investigating the range of heliodependence of social-political dynamics. 
   
5. Concomitants: The role of revolutionary events in broader societal and historical contexts must be considered. Long wave oscillations have been claimed between liberal and conservative worldviews, and economic cycles of the famous Kondratiev type ought to be put into perspective. The connection between violence-from-below with conflicts of horizontal extension (international wars) needs investigation.
6. Generalizations: Revolutionary movements are generally seen as expressions of new ideas rather than as blind valves releasing stowed-up aggressions: “Revolution is ... a war of ideas”. The question arises whether ideational activity in other domains, aside from the social-political domain, may oscillate with changing solar activity-related conditions.
7. Present and Future: How strong is solar activity in 1996? We find ourselves in the midst of a solar minimum. Applying our above observations, we may be tempted to conclude that presently the probability of major world revolutions is low. The most recent turning point in contemporary history occurred in 1989, a solar maximum year. The 1989 revolution brought to an end an era whose beginning was the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917, a solar maximum year. The next solar maximum is expected for A.D. 2000 or 2001. The probability of revolutionary upheavals on this globe should then be greater. It seems advisable, however, to postpone predictions and to rather await further conclusions from research conducted by macroecologists, i.e., by a team of experts from all those disciplines of science, social science, and history whose contributions to solving the solar activity riddle are badly needed. Regrettably, such a team does not yet exist, but researchers in chronobiology/chronomedicine and in biogeomagnetics are not far from setting the stage: "An international and truly interdisciplinary effort will be required to ascertain the validity of biogeomagnetics ... to scrutinize physiological harbingers and their possible correlations with 'space weather' parameters."

Quoted from:
Suitbert Ertel (1996) - Space Weather and Revolutions - Chizhevsky's Heliobiological Claim Scrutinized. 

 

 The Terrestrial Echo of Solar Storms.

See also: 

Alexander L. Chizhevsky (1921) - Physical Factors of the Historical Process. (Физические факторы исторического процесса.)

Alexander L. Chizhevsky (1936) - The Terrestrial Echo of Solar Storms. (Земное эхо солнечных бурь.)

 Alexander L. Chizhevsky (1938) - Les Epidemies et les perturbations electro-magnetiques du milieu exterieur.

Sacha P. Dobler (2018) - Solar History: The Connection of Solar Activity, War, Peace and the Human Mind in the 2nd Millennium. 

Sacha P. Dobler (2020) - Solar Behavior: How Solar- and Geomagnetic Conditions shape Human History.

N. Chandra Wickramasinghe et al. (2020) - Solar Cycle, Maunder Minimum and Pandemic Influenza.

Mikhail Gorbanev (2020) - Shifting Pattern of Extraordinary Economic and Social Events in Relation to the Solar Cycle.