Showing posts with label Heliobiology. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Heliobiology. Show all posts

Saturday, December 28, 2024

Solar Activity and "Violence-from-Below" Events | Suitbert Ertel

Alexander Chizhevsky's 1921 claim of a relationship between solar activity and revolutionary mass behavior is examined. A Master Index of Violence-from-Below Events (MIVE) is compiled, consisting of 2,101 events and 4,000 references extracted from 18 historical sources (chronologies, timelines, etc.) covering the period A.D. 1700–1985. [...] The relationship between solar activity and violence-from-below is found to be highly significant (p < .001). 

A.L. Chizhevsky (1897–1964), Russian scientist, Soviet Gulag prisoner, and founder of heliobiology, a field dedicated to
studying the impact of solar activity on biological, social, and psychological processes. His work spanned experimental
biophysics and hematology (structural analysis of blood). In addition to his scientific pursuits, Chizhevsky wrote poetry,
engaged in literary criticism, and taught history and archaeology.
 
At the 1926 Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society, an American participant delivered a paper written in 1921 by Alexander Leonidovich Chizhevsky, who was then a 24-year old Russian scholar. Its bombastic title "The Influence of Cosmic Factors Upon the Behavior of Organized Human Masses, as Well as Upon the Universal Historical Process" appeared laughable. The author claimed that occurrences of social unrest, rebellions, upheavals, revolutions are significantly correlated with solar activity, i.e., with the ups and downs of magnetic turbulence of the sun. In his own words: "The greatest revolutions, wars and other mass movements which have created nations, have given origin to the turning points of history, and have shaken the life of humanity and entire continents, tend to coincide with the periods of the maxima of the sun’s activity". [...] Since 1958, after being rehabilitated from Stalin's Gulag system, Chizhevsky has been acknowledged in Russia and elsewhere as the founder of the discipline of "heliobiology." By then some of his claims had appeared less vaunting and more admissible, especially in medical science circles: Typhus, influenza pandemics, cholera, and other epidemic diseases, as well as the morbidity of animals, were alleged to be correlated with solar activity. Chizhevsky's major claim, however, the correlation of turning points in human history with solar maximum conditions, was deemed unthinkable.
 
Secrets of the Sun — A.L. Chizhevsky's legacy.

[...] In line with Chizhevsky’s hypothesis it is assumed that human behavior, if correlated at all with solar activity, would turn spontaneous and impulsive under helioactive conditions among many people at the same time. The probability of mass activation would increase. Therefore all events indicating "violence-from-below" are regarded pertinent, i.e. spectacular attempts by large groups of people at enforcing changes of their living conditions. The category "violence from below" has been adopted from Johan Galtung who distinguished between (1) violence from below (revolutionary violence); (2) violence from above (counter-revolutionary); (3) horizontal violence between equals over some incompatible goals; and (4) random violence, related neither to interests nor to goals. 
 
» An event is coded violence-from-below if the chronology
refers to it by one or more of the above verbal labels. «
 
 » The idea of Q-analysis is simple. If historical events are independent of solar activity, their temporal distances from
the nearest solar maximum should be random. Even though a revolution might coincide with a solar maximum due
to chance, this should occur relatively infrequently. For larger numbers of historical turning points, temporal distances
from solar maximum years should not differ from chance expectation. The same applies for solar minimum years. «

Unlike Chizhevsky, we did not lump events of Galtung's four categories together. Thus, all horizontal violence acts were not considered, such as territorial or international wars, which are generally not launched by the people but by institutional authorities. Violence from above was also excluded, except if such occurrences indicated preceding acts of violence from below. Galtung's random violence events (Category 4), such as massacres and pogroms—however rare expressions of mass unrest—were also included. [...] Palace revolts, coups d’états, and similar instances of violence without involvement of the ruled masses remained unconsidered, as well as individual acts of violence directed against authorities without apparent involvement of a larger population (e.g., assassination, terror acts). [...]
 
Conclusions
Evidence has been accumulated in this study supporting the claim of Chizhevsky of a connection between solar activity and violence-from-below. A comprehensive Master Index of Violence Events (the MIVE database) was compiled, and influence of bias was strictly excluded. The procedure of analysis circumvented methodological artifacts arising from autocorrelations. In addition, the distribution generated by randomizations allowed for straightforward significance judgments. Finally, results obtained from genuine data were compared with results obtained from various controls. It turned out that the hypothesized connection between solar activity and violence-from-below is positive (the more solar activity, the more social violence), and the correlation is generally not lagged. 
 
 » The more solar activity, the more social violence, and the correlation is generally not lagged. «
A p-value of less than 0.001 indicates the very strong statistical correlation between solar activity and violence-from-below, 
making the result highly reliable, with the likelihood of the relationship occurring by chance being less than 0.1%.
 Experimental Solar Cycle 25 Prediction, updated December 2, 2024.

In sum, history text references to violence-from-below events tend to coincide with the years of maximum solar activity. However, a number of ensuing problems need to be solved:
  1. Physical Variables: Which variables are actually effective? Are solar emissions responsible? Are mediators like geophysical disturbances or climate involved? Solar activity effects on the world’s climate are too small and too slow to explain unlagged revolutionary behavior. Geomagnetic influence is somewhat more likely, but cycles of geomagnetism peak about two years later than solar cycles. Cosmic radiation, whose intensity is attenuated by solar magnetism, might be an effective variable.
  2. Physiological Variables: Which psychobiological structures underlying violence-from-below are responsive to such hidden stimulation? Neural structures for sensory or subsensory perception, for emotional processes, or for cognitive processes?
  3. Effect Size: How strong are solar correlated (external) factors compared to social-political dynamics (internal factors)? The external factors are apparently strong enough to emerge despite internal political dynamics. If the external effects were weak, they would be diluted.
  4. Effect Limitations: Why is solar maxima not always associated with violence-from-below? Why did high violence-from-below sometimes emerge despite low solar activity? Historical incidences of unexpectedly high or low violence — “unexpectedly” in view of deviating solar conditions — might be of foremost interest for investigating the range of heliodependence of social-political dynamics. 
  5. Concomitants: The role of revolutionary events in broader societal and historical contexts must be considered. Long wave oscillations have been claimed between liberal and conservative worldviews, and economic cycles of the famous Kondratiev type ought to be put into perspective. The connection between violence-from-below with conflicts of horizontal extension (international wars) needs investigation.
  6. Generalizations: Revolutionary movements are generally seen as expressions of new ideas rather than as blind valves releasing stowed-up aggressions: “Revolution is ... a war of ideas”. The question arises whether ideational activity in other domains, aside from the social-political domain, may oscillate with changing solar activity-related conditions.
  7. Present and Future: How strong is solar activity in 1996? We find ourselves in the midst of a solar minimum. Applying our above observations, we may be tempted to conclude that presently the probability of major world revolutions is low. The most recent turning point in contemporary history occurred in 1989, a solar maximum year. The 1989 revolution brought to an end an era whose beginning was the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917, a solar maximum year. The next solar maximum is expected for A.D. 2000 or 2001. The probability of revolutionary upheavals on this globe should then be greater. It seems advisable, however, to postpone predictions and to rather await further conclusions from research conducted by macroecologists, i.e., by a team of experts from all those disciplines of science, social science, and history whose contributions to solving the solar activity riddle are badly needed. Regrettably, such a team does not yet exist, but researchers in chronobiology/chronomedicine and in biogeomagnetics are not far from setting the stage: "An international and truly interdisciplinary effort will be required to ascertain the validity of biogeomagnetics ... to scrutinize physiological harbingers and their possible correlations with 'space weather' parameters."
 

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Thursday, October 20, 2022

The Physical Factors of the Historical Process | Alexander Chizhevsky

In 1924 Russian scientist Alexander Chizhevsky advanced a theory claiming that the solar activity cycles affected all of human history. He drew insight from the striking observation that two Russian revolutions of the early XX century (in 1905-07 and 1917) and several major European revolutions of the XIX century (in 1830, 1848, and 1871) occurred in the years of maximum solar activity. 
 

To justify his conviction, Chizhevsky scrutinized the available sunspot records and solar observations comparing them to riots, revolutions, battles and wars in Russia and 71 other countries for the period from 500 B.C. to 1922 A.D. He proposed to divide the eleven-year solar cycle into four phases:
  1. 3-year period of minimum activity (around the solar minimum) characterized by passivity and “autocratic rule”;
  2. 2-year period during which people “begin to organize” under new leaders and “one theme”;
  3. 3-year period (around the solar maximum) of “maximum excitability,” revolutions and wars;
  4. 3-year period of gradual decrease in “excitability,” until people are “apathetic.”
Chizhevsky found that a significant percent of revolutions and what he classified as “the most important historical events” involving “large numbers of people” occurred in the 3-year period around sunspot maximums. Through his further studies, Chizhevsky came to believe that correlations with the solar cycles could be found for a very diverse set of natural phenomena and human activities. In his book, he compiled a list of as many as 27 of them that supposedly fluctuated with the solar cycle, ranging from crop harvests to epidemic diseases to mortality rates. According to his studies, the periods of maximum solar activity were generally associated with negative effects such as lower harvests, intensification of diseases (including psychological ones), and higher mortality rates. However, Subsequent studies generally did not confirm the strength and scope of all the links between solar activity and various physical and social processes claimed by Chizhevsky.

Even as the link between solar activity and revolutions was not as strong as originally claimed by Chizhevsky, it appeared to be able to withstand a statistical test. In 1992 Russian scientist Putilov analyzed large samples of historical events mentioned in the chronology sections of two of the largest Soviet historical encyclopedias (numbering nearly 13,000 events in one book and 4,600 in another). He classified the events into four groups on the dimensions of “tolerance” (e.g., riot-reform) and “polarity” (e.g., civil war-external war). Putilov found that frequency and “polarity” of historical events increased in the year of the maximum of the sunspot cycle and in the next year after it, particularly when compared with the year of the minimum and the year before the minimum. The probability of revolution (the most polar and intolerant of historical events) was the highest during the maximum and the lowest in the year before a minimum of solar activity, with very high statistical significance. The results suggested that solar activity does impact historic events, particularly in the years of sunspot maximums. 
 
In Chizhevsky’s own words (translated):

Alexander Chizhevsky (1922) - The principles of modern natural science have urged me to investigate whether or not there is a correlation between the more important phenomena of nature and events in the social-historical life of mankind. In this direction, beginning in the year 1915, I have performed a number of researches, but at present I am submitting to the public only those which are directed towards determining the connection between the periodical sun-spot activity and (1) the behavior of organized human masses and (2) the universal historical process. The following facts are based upon statistics gathered by me while submitting to a minute scrutiny the history of all the peoples and states known to science, beginning with the V century B. C. and ending with the present day.

1. As soon as the sun-spot activity approaches its maximum, the number of important mass historical events, taken as a whole, increases, approaching its maximum during the sun-spot maximum and decreasing to its minimum during the epochs of the sun-spot minimum.

2. In each century the rise of the synchronic universal military and political activity on the whole of the Earth's territory is observed exactly 9 times. This circumstance enables us to reckon that a cycle of universal human activity embraces 11 years (in the arithmetical mean). The fluctuation's mean curves of the universal historical process on all the surface of the Earth during the period from V century B.C. till XX century A.D. (along the abscissa axis are marked the years, along the ordinate axis – the quantity of important historical events. Dots mark the pretelescopic and later – astronomical data of the sun-spot maximum. Hyphens mark its minimum):
 

Parallelism of the curves of sun-spot activity (below) and the universal human military-political activity (above) from 1749 till 1922:
 

3. Each cycle according to its historical psychological signs is divided into 4 parts (periods):

I. Minimum of excitability: 3 years;
II. Growth of excitability: 2 years;
III. Maximum of excitability: 3 years;
IV. Decline of excitability: 3 years;
 

The number of historical events in each cycle is distributed approximately according to the data for 500 years (XV—XX cent.) in the following manner (in the mean):

I.  period: 5%;
II.  period: 20%;
III.  period: 60%;
IV. period: 15%.

Schematic Summary of Properties of a Complete Historiometric Cycle:


4. The course and development of each lengthy historical event is subject to fluctuations (periods of activity and inactivity) in direct dependence upon the periodical fluctuations occurring in the sun's activity. Formula: the state of predisposition of collective bodies towards action is a function of the sun-spot periodical activity.

5. Episodic leaps or rises in the sun's activity, given the existence in human societies of politico-economical and other exciting factors, are capable of calling forth a synchronic rising in human collective bodies. Formula: the rising of the sun-spot activity transforms the people's potential energy into kinetic energy.

My studies in the sphere of synthesizing historical material have enabled me to determine the following morphological law of the historical process:

6. The course of the universal historical process is composed of an uninterrupted row of cycles, occupying a period equaling in the arithmetical mean 11 years and synchronizing in the degree of its military-political activity with the sun-spot activity. Each cycle possesses the following historio-psychological peculiarities:

a. In the middle points of the cycle's course the mass activity of humanity all over the surface of the Earth, given the presence in human societies of economical, political or military exciting factors, reaches the maximum tension, manifesting itself in psycomotoric pandemics:  revolutions, insurrections, expeditions, migrations etc., creating new formations in the existence of separate states and new historical epochs in the life of humanity. It is accompanied by an integration of the masses, a full expression of their activity and a form of government consisting of a majority.
b. In the extreme points of the cycle's course the tension of the all-human military-political activity falls to the minimum, ceding the way to creative activity and is accompanied by a general decrease of military or political enthusiasm, by peace and peaceful creative work in the sphere of state organizations, international relations, science and art, with a pronounced tendency towards absolutism in the governing powers and a disintegration of the masses.

7. In correlation with the sun-spot maximum stand:

a. The dissemination of different doctrines political, religious etc., the spreading of heresies, religious riots, pilgrimages etc.
b. The appearance of social, military and religious leaders, reformists etc.
c. The formation of political, military, religious and commercial corporations, associations, unions, leagues, sects, companies etc.

8. It is impossible to overlook the fact that pathological epidemics also coincide very frequently with the sun-spot maximum periods.

9. Thus the existence of dependence between the sun-spot activity and the behavior of humanity should be considered established.

One cycle of all-human activity is taken by me for the first measuring unit of the historical process. The science concerned with investigating the historical phenomena from the above point of view I have named historiometria.

At present I am working on a plan of organizing scientific institutes for determining the influence of cosmic and geophysical factors upon the condition of the psychics of individuals and collective bodies, and devising a working method for them.

A.L. Chizhevsky
November, 1922; 10 Ivanovskaia st., Kaluga, Russia.

Translation:
Sergey Smelyakov (2006) - Chizhevsky's Disclosure: How the Solar Cycles Modulate the History.
 
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Saturday, February 4, 2017

Exuberance is Beauty | On the Political Influence of the Sun

Boris Groys (2017) - During the period of modernity we got accustomed to the understanding of the human beings as determined by the social milieu in which they live, as knots in the informational networks, as organisms depending on their environment. In the times of globalization we learned that we are dependent on everything that happens around the globe – politically, economically, ecologically. But the Earth is not isolated in Cosmos. It depends on the processes that take place in the cosmic space – on black matter, waves and particles, star explosions and galactic collapses. And the fate of mankind also depends on these cosmic processes because all these cosmic waves and particles go through the human bodies. The positioning of the Earth in the cosmic whole determines the conditions under which the living organisms can survive on its surface.

Georges Batailles (1897-1962): "Solar radiation results in a superabundance of energy on the
surface of the globe. But, first, living matter receives this energy and accumulates it within
the limits given by the space that is available to it. It then radiates or squanders it, but
before devoting an appreciable share to this radiation it makes maximum use of it for growth.
Only the impossibility of continuing growth makes way for squander. Hence the real excess does not
begin until the growth of the individual or group has reached its limits."(HERE)

This dependence of the mankind on the cosmic events that are uncontrollable and even unknown is the source of the specifically modern anxiety. One can say: Cosmic anxiety. The anxiety of being a part of Cosmos – and not able to control it. Not accidentally our contemporary mass culture is so much obsessed with the visions of asteroids coming form the black cosmic space and destroying the Earth. But this anxiety has also more subtle forms. As an example one can cite the theory of the ‘accursed share” that was developed by Georges Bataille. According to this theory, the Sun always sends more energy to the Earth than the Earth, including the organisms living on its surface, can absorb. After all the efforts to use this energy for production of goods and raising the living standard of the population there also remains a non-absorbed, non-used rest of the solar energy. This rest of energy is necessarily destructive – it can be spent only through violence and war. Or, at least, through ecstatic festivals and sexual orgies that channel and absorb this rest of energy through the less dangerous activities. Thus, human culture and politics become also determined by the cosmic energies – forever shifting between order and disorder.

Now, Bataille’s solar myth reminds one strongly of the interpretation of the world history as defined by the activity of the Sun – interpretation that was formulated by Russian historian and biologist Alexander Chizhevsky in the 1920s and 1930s. During this period of time Chizhevsky’s ideas spread also to the West, especially to France and the USA, and some of his texts were published in French and English – so that his ideas could reach Bataille (for example A. L. Chizhevsky (1938): Les Épidémies et les perturbations electromagnetiques; Paris, Hippocrate). However, the main text written by Chizhevsky in which his theory is extensively formulated and proved by empirical data was published only relatively recently in Russian. Chizhevsky collected a huge empirical data – from the Roman and early Chinese sources up to the 1930s – to show the close correlation between the periods of the higher activity of the Sun and mass revolutionary movements. It is, of course, the Russian revolution in 1917 that gave the decisive impulse to his research. Chizhevsky asks: why under similar social, economic and political constellations in some cases masses become mobilized and revolutionized but in other cases they remain passive and indifferent. The answer that Chizhevsky offers is this: to be able to start a revolutionary movement the human beings should be mobilized not only on the level of the spirit but also on the level of the body. The human spirit can be mobilized through an ideology but, according to Chizhevsky the degree of mobilization of the human body, like of all the organisms living on the Earth, is dependent on the cycles of solar activity. 

Chizhevsky collected an incredible amount of astronomical and historical data to show the correlation between activity of the Sun and activity of revolutionary movements. As he shows the greatest revolutions coincided with the greatest activity of the Sun – and the historical process is characterized by a succession of active and passive periods corresponding to the 11 years cycles of solar activity (the highest degree of activity follows the 22 years cycle). But it seems to me that for our time the most interesting part of his results concerns the relationship between activity of the Sun and English parliamentary election. These results show that the influence of the Sun dictates not only the choice between revolution and status quo but also between leftwing and rightwing politics in the framework of regular parliamentary processes. Thus, Chizhevsky shows that for the period between 1830 and 1924 the summary activity of Sun during the rule of liberal governments was 155,6% higher than during the rule of conservative governments. The conservative governments never had power when the number of sunspots was over 93. The moments of change in the solar activity are almost precisely correlated to the changes of the English governments.

At the end of his text Chizhevsky suggests that the knowledge of the correlation between activity of the Sun and political activity of the masses can prepare the political classes to the seemingly unexpected changes of the public mood. During the financial crisis in the year 2009 some specialist remembered the so-called Kondratiev waves – Nikolai Kondratiev, a student of Chizhevsky, applied his theory on the economic cycles and predicted all of them including the 2009 crisis. On the political level one is reminded of the years 1968, 1989 and, again, 2010-11. Here it is interesting to mention that the present time is the time of the weakest solar activity since the 20th century – the period of political indifference and passivity of the masses. However, the political effects of the bigger numbers of sunspots are often ambiguous. Chizhevsky specifically warns that the growth of solar activity can lead not only to the adoption of progressive agenda by the masses but also to the rise of irrational and reactionary populist movements.

References:
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