Physical Factors of the Historical Process | Alexander Chizhevsky

In 1924 Russian scientist Alexander Chizhevsky advanced a theory claiming that the solar activity cycles affected all of human history. He drew insight from the striking observation that two Russian revolutions of the early XX century (in 1905-07 and 1917) and several major European revolutions of the XIX century (in 1830, 1848, and 1871) occurred in the years of maximum solar activity. 

 

To justify his conviction, Chizhevsky scrutinized the available sunspot records and solar observations comparing them to riots, revolutions, battles and wars in Russia and 71 other countries for the period from 500 B.C. to 1922 A.D. He proposed to divide the eleven-year solar cycle into four phases:

1. 3-year period of minimum activity (around the solar minimum) characterized by passivity and “autocratic rule”;
2. 2-year period during which people “begin to organize” under new leaders and “one theme”;
3. 3-year period (around the solar maximum) of “maximum excitability,” revolutions and wars;
4. 3-year period of gradual decrease in “excitability,” until people are “apathetic.”

Chizhevsky found that a significant percent of revolutions and what he classified as “the most important historical events” involving “large numbers of people” occurred in the 3-year period around sunspot maximums. Through his further studies, Chizhevsky came to believe that correlations with the solar cycles could be found for a very diverse set of natural phenomena and human activities. In his book, he compiled a list of as many as 27 of them that supposedly fluctuated with the solar cycle, ranging from crop harvests to epidemic diseases to mortality rates. According to his studies, the periods of maximum solar activity were generally associated with negative effects such as lower harvests, intensification of diseases (including psychological ones), and higher mortality rates. However, Subsequent studies generally did not confirm the strength and scope of all the links between solar activity and various physical and social processes claimed by Chizhevsky.

Even as the link between solar activity and revolutions was not as strong as originally claimed by Chizhevsky, it appeared to be able to withstand a statistical test. In 1992 Russian scientist Putilov analyzed large samples of historical events mentioned in the chronology sections of two of the largest Soviet historical encyclopedias (numbering nearly 13,000 events in one book and 4,600 in another). He classified the events into four groups on the dimensions of “tolerance” (e.g., riot-reform) and “polarity” (e.g., civil war-external war). Putilov found that frequency and “polarity” of historical events increased in the year of the maximum of the sunspot cycle and in the next year after it, particularly when compared with the year of the minimum and the year before the minimum. The probability of revolution (the most polar and intolerant of historical events) was the highest during the maximum and the lowest in the year before a minimum of solar activity, with very high statistical significance. The results suggested that solar activity does impact historic events, particularly in the years of sunspot maximums. 

 

In Chizhevsky’s own words (translated):

Alexander Chizhevsky (1922) - The principles of modern natural science have urged me to investigate whether or not there is a correlation between the more important phenomena of nature and events in the social-historical life of mankind. In this direction, beginning in the year 1915, I have performed a number of researches, but at present I am submitting to the public only those which are directed towards determining the connection between the periodical sun-spot activity and (1) the behavior of organized human masses and (2) the universal historical process. The following facts are based upon statistics gathered by me while submitting to a minute scrutiny the history of all the peoples and states known to science, beginning with the V century B. C. and ending with the present day.

1. As soon as the sun-spot activity approaches its maximum, the number of important mass historical events, taken as a whole, increases, approaching its maximum during the sun-spot maximum and decreasing to its minimum during the epochs of the sun-spot minimum.

2. In each century the rise of the synchronic universal military and political activity on the whole of the Earth's territory is observed exactly 9 times. This circumstance enables us to reckon that a cycle of universal human activity embraces 11 years (in the arithmetical mean). The fluctuation's mean curves of the universal historical process on all the surface of the Earth during the period from V century B.C. till XX century A.D. (along the abscissa axis are marked the years, along the ordinate axis – the quantity of important historical events. Dots mark the pretelescopic and later – astronomical data of the sun-spot maximum. Hyphens mark its minimum):

 

Parallelism of the curves of sun-spot activity (below) and the universal human military-political activity (above) from 1749 till 1922:

 

3. Each cycle according to its historical psychological signs is divided into 4 parts (periods):

I. Minimum of excitability: 3 years;
II. Growth of excitability: 2 years;
III. Maximum of excitability: 3 years;
IV. Decline of excitability: 3 years;

 

The number of historical events in each cycle is distributed approximately according to the data for 500 years (XV—XX cent.) in the following manner (in the mean):

I  period: 5%;
II  period: 20%;
III  period: 60%;
IV  period: 15%.

Schematic Summary of Properties of a Complete Historiometric Cycle:

4. The course and development of each lengthy historical event is subject to fluctuations (periods of activity and inactivity) in direct dependence upon the periodical fluctuations occurring in the sun's activity. Formula: the state of predisposition of collective bodies towards action is a function of the sun-spot periodical activity.

5. Episodic leaps or rises in the sun's activity, given the existence in human societies of politico-economical and other exciting factors, are capable of calling forth a synchronic rising in human collective bodies. Formula: the rising of the sun-spot activity transforms the people's potential energy into kinetic energy.

My studies in the sphere of synthesizing historical material have enabled me to determine the following morphological law of the historical process:

6. The course of the universal historical process is composed of an uninterrupted row of cycles, occupying a period equaling in the arithmetical mean 11 years and synchronizing in the degree of its military-political activity with the sun-spot activity. Each cycle possesses the following historio-psychological peculiarities:

a. In the middle points of the cycle's course the mass activity of humanity all over the surface of the Earth, given the presence in human societies of economical, political or military exciting factors, reaches the maximum tension, manifesting itself in psycomotoric pandemics:  revolutions, insurrections, expeditions, migrations etc., creating new formations in the existence of separate states and new historical epochs in the life of humanity. It is accompanied by an integration of the masses, a full expression of their activity and a form of government consisting of a majority.
b. In the extreme points of the cycle's course the tension of the all-human military-political activity falls to the minimum, ceding the way to creative activity and is accompanied by a general decrease of military or political enthusiasm, by peace and peaceful creative work in the sphere of state organizations, international relations, science and art, with a pronounced tendency towards absolutism in the governing powers and a disintegration of the masses.

7. In correlation with the sun-spot maximum stand:

a. The dissemination of different doctrines political, religious etc., the spreading of heresies, religious riots, pilgrimages etc.
b. The appearance of social, military and religious leaders, reformists etc.
c. The formation of political, military, religious and commercial corporations, associations, unions, leagues, sects, companies etc.

8. It is impossible to overlook the fact that pathological epidemics also coincide very frequently with the sun-spot maximum periods.

9. Thus the existence of dependence between the sun-spot activity and the behavior of humanity should be considered established.

One cycle of all-human activity is taken by me for the first measuring unit of the historical process. The science concerned with investigating the historical phenomena from the above point of view I have named historiometria.

At present I am working on a plan of organizing scientific institutes for determining the influence of cosmic and geophysical factors upon the condition of the psychics of individuals and collective bodies, and devising a working method for them.

A. Chizhevsky
November, 1922; 10 Ivanovskaia st., Kaluga, Russia.

Translation:
Sergey Smelyakov (2006) - Chizhevsky's Disclosure: How the Solar Cycles Modulate the History.

 

This article was adopted from:

Mikhail Gorbanev (2015) - Alexander Chizhevsky (1897-1964) - Russian interdisciplinary scientist.

Reference:
Alexander Chizhevsky (1924) - Physical Factors of the Historical Process.
Original in Russian: А.Чижевский (1924) - Физические факторы исторического процесса.

See also:
Alexander Chizhevsky (1938) - Les Epidemies et les perturbations electro-magnetiques du milieu exterieur.
Alexander Chizhevsky (1936) - The Terrestrial Echo of Solar Storms.
Original in Russian: А.Л.Чижевский (1936) - Земное эхо солнечных бурь.

Carlos Garcia-Mata & Felix I. Shaffner (1934) - Solar and Economic Relationships: A Preliminary Report.
A.A. Putilov (1992) - Unevenness of distribution of historical events throughout an 11-year solar cycle.
Original in Russian: А.А. Путилов (1992) - Неравномерность распределения исторических событий в пределах 11-летнего солнечного цикла.

Miroslav Mikulecký (2007) - Solar activity, revolutions and cultural prime in the history of mankind.

L. Gumarova et al. (2012) - Geographically selective assortment of cycles in pandemics: meta-analysis of data collected by Chizhevsky.

Mikhail Gorbanev (2015): Can solar activity influence the occurrence of economic recessions?

Exuberance is Beauty | On the Political Influence of the Sun

Boris Groys (2017) - During the period of modernity we got accustomed to the understanding of the human beings as determined by the social milieu in which they live, as knots in the informational networks, as organisms depending on their environment. In the times of globalization we learned that we are dependent on everything that happens around the globe – politically, economically, ecologically. But the Earth is not isolated in Cosmos. It depends on the processes that take place in the cosmic space – on black matter, waves and particles, star explosions and galactic collapses. And the fate of mankind also depends on these cosmic processes because all these cosmic waves and particles go through the human bodies. The positioning of the Earth in the cosmic whole determines the conditions under which the living organisms can survive on its surface.

Georges Batailles (1897-1962): "Solar radiation results in a superabundance of energy on the
surface of the globe. But, first, living matter receives this energy and accumulates it within
the limits given by the space that is available to it. It then radiates or squanders it, but
before devoting an appreciable share to this radiation it makes maximum use of it for growth.
Only the impossibility of continuing growth makes way for squander. Hence the real excess does not
begin until the growth of the individual or group has reached its limits."(HERE)

This dependence of the mankind on the cosmic events that are uncontrollable and even unknown is the source of the specifically modern anxiety. One can say: Cosmic anxiety. The anxiety of being a part of Cosmos – and not able to control it. Not accidentally our contemporary mass culture is so much obsessed with the visions of asteroids coming form the black cosmic space and destroying the Earth. But this anxiety has also more subtle forms. As an example one can cite the theory of the ‘accursed share” that was developed by Georges Bataille. According to this theory, the Sun always sends more energy to the Earth than the Earth, including the organisms living on its surface, can absorb. After all the efforts to use this energy for production of goods and raising the living standard of the population there also remains a non-absorbed, non-used rest of the solar energy. This rest of energy is necessarily destructive – it can be spent only through violence and war. Or, at least, through ecstatic festivals and sexual orgies that channel and absorb this rest of energy through the less dangerous activities. Thus, human culture and politics become also determined by the cosmic energies – forever shifting between order and disorder.

Now, Bataille’s solar myth reminds one strongly of the interpretation of the world history as defined by the activity of the Sun – interpretation that was formulated by Russian historian and biologist Alexander Chizhevsky in the 1920s and 1930s. During this period of time Chizhevsky’s ideas spread also to the West, especially to France and the USA, and some of his texts were published in French and English – so that his ideas could reach Bataille (for example A. L. Chizhevsky (1938): Les Épidémies et les perturbations electromagnetiques; Paris, Hippocrate). However, the main text written by Chizhevsky in which his theory is extensively formulated and proved by empirical data was published only relatively recently in Russian. Chizhevsky collected a huge empirical data – from the Roman and early Chinese sources up to the 1930s – to show the close correlation between the periods of the higher activity of the Sun and mass revolutionary movements. It is, of course, the Russian revolution in 1917 that gave the decisive impulse to his research. Chizhevsky asks: why under similar social, economic and political constellations in some cases masses become mobilized and revolutionized but in other cases they remain passive and indifferent. The answer that Chizhevsky offers is this: to be able to start a revolutionary movement the human beings should be mobilized not only on the level of the spirit but also on the level of the body. The human spirit can be mobilized through an ideology but, according to Chizhevsky the degree of mobilization of the human body, like of all the organisms living on the Earth, is dependent on the cycles of solar activity. 

Chizhevsky collected an incredible amount of astronomical and historical data to show the correlation between activity of the Sun and activity of revolutionary movements. As he shows the greatest revolutions coincided with the greatest activity of the Sun – and the historical process is characterized by a succession of active and passive periods corresponding to the 11 years cycles of solar activity (the highest degree of activity follows the 22 years cycle). But it seems to me that for our time the most interesting part of his results concerns the relationship between activity of the Sun and English parliamentary election. These results show that the influence of the Sun dictates not only the choice between revolution and status quo but also between leftwing and rightwing politics in the framework of regular parliamentary processes. Thus, Chizhevsky shows that for the period between 1830 and 1924 the summary activity of Sun during the rule of liberal governments was 155,6% higher than during the rule of conservative governments. The conservative governments never had power when the number of sunspots was over 93. The moments of change in the solar activity are almost precisely correlated to the changes of the English governments.

At the end of his text Chizhevsky suggests that the knowledge of the correlation between activity of the Sun and political activity of the masses can prepare the political classes to the seemingly unexpected changes of the public mood. During the financial crisis in the year 2009 some specialist remembered the so-called Kondratiev waves – Nikolai Kondratiev, a student of Chizhevsky, applied his theory on the economic cycles and predicted all of them including the 2009 crisis. On the political level one is reminded of the years 1968, 1989 and, again, 2010-11. Here it is interesting to mention that the present time is the time of the weakest solar activity since the 20th century – the period of political indifference and passivity of the masses. However, the political effects of the bigger numbers of sunspots are often ambiguous. Chizhevsky specifically warns that the growth of solar activity can lead not only to the adoption of progressive agenda by the masses but also to the rise of irrational and reactionary populist movements.

References:

Georges Bataille (1949) - The Accursed Share: An Essay on General Economy. 

Alexander Chizhevsky (1924) - Physical Factors of the Historical Process.

Alexander Chizhevsky (1938) - Les Epidemies et les perturbations electro-magnetiques du milieu exterieur.

Nikolai Kondratieff (1925) - The Major Economic Cycles.