Sell Rosh Hashanah & Buy Yom Kippur 2023 | Jeff Hirsch

Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur is aligning quite well this year with late September seasonal weakness and the notoriously treacherous week after quarterly options expiration, AKA Triple Witching (Fri, Sep 15th). It’s a few days before FOMC (Tue-Wed, Sep 19-20) with a market jittery on hotter inflation data.
 

Rosh Hashanah lands on Saturday 9/16 this year so we close the day before. This is right at the mid-month peak of the typical September pattern. Yom Kippur falls on 9/25 (Mon) which is the 16th trading day of the month, right around the seasonal monthly low point.

The thesis is that folks sell positions on Rosh Hashanah the first of the Days of Awe to rid themselves of financial commitments and then return to the market after Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement. It is no coincidence that this coincides with the seasonal September/October weakness. The market has been tracking the 4-year cycle and seasonal trends to a T this year and the past 3. So this should make a great entry for the Q4 pre-election year rally.

Quoted from:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Sep 13, 2023) - Sell Rosh Hashanah Buy Yom Kippur Sets Up.

 

See also:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Sep 03, 2023) - S&P 500 Pre-Election Year Seasonal Pattern 1949-2022 vs 2023.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (2014) - Best 6 Months.

Russell 2000 Index vs SoLunar Map │ Rosh Hashanah and Equinox

The Russell 2000 vs the major 118.12 Calendar Day SoLunar Cycle.

Rosh Hashanah begins at sunset of Wednesday, Sep 20 (New Moon), and ends at nightfall on Friday, Sep 22. The fall (autumnal) equinox is on Friday, Sep 22 at 10:48 am EDT (see also HERE). Greed reached an extreme level on Sep 19 (Tue), and the S&P500, the Russell 2000, and the Nasdaq generated Narrow Range Inside Day Patterns (ID/NR4 and ID/NR7 - HERE + HERE).

Buy Rosh Hashanah, Sell Yom Kippur
[evening of Friday , Sep 29] ? │ Jeff Hirsch

DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ Up 7 of Last 8 Years
Day before Rosh Hashanah │ Jeff Hirsch

Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur | Jeff Hirsch

Source: Jeff Hirsch's Almanac Trader

One saying for equities on Wall Street has historically been to “sell Rosh Hashanah" (Oct 3-4, 2016 (Mon-Tue)), and to "buy Yom Kippur" (Oct 12, 2016 (Wed)). Or was it vice versa?

Jeff Hirsch presents the data back to 1971: "When the holiday falls on a weekend the prior market close is used. It’s no coincidence that Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur fall in September and/or October, two dangerous and opportune months. We then took it a step further and calculated the return from Yom Kippur to Passover.

[...] Perhaps it’s Talmudic wisdom but, selling stocks before the eight-day span of the high holidays has avoided many declines, especially during uncertain times. While being long Yom Kippur to Passover has produced more than twice as many advances, averaging gains of 7.0%. It often pays to be a contrarian when old bromides are tossed around, buying instead of selling Yom Kippur – and selling Passover." 

Sell Rosh Hashanah - Buy Yom Kippur

Jeffrey A. Hirsch turns around the old Wall Street adage “Buy Rosh Hashanah, Sell Yom Kippur.” The wiser course of action these days is to “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur, Sell Passover.” He explains that “the basis for the new pattern is that with many traders and investors busy with religious observance and family, positions are closed out and volume fades creating a buying vacuum.”

Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year, falls on the Hebrew calendar dates of 1 and 2 Tishrei (2012 = September 16 (at sundown) - 18).

Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement, falls on the Hebrew calendar date of 10 Tishrei (2012 = September 25-26)