Does the Stock Market predict the US Presidential Election?

Almanacist | The UK Stock Market Almanac (Oct 12, 2016) - The 14 charts above show the performance of the FTSE All-Share index over the 12 months of a US presidential election year. For example, the first chart shows the January-December performance of the UK market in 1960, the year John Kennedy was elected President of the United States. The dashed line in each chart indicates the date of the election.

  
However, "Trump is headed for a win", says Allan Lichtman, a distinguished professor
of history at American University, who has predicted 30 years of presidential
outcomes correctly (HERE)

SPX vs 93 Trading Day Cycle + US Election

93 Trading Days ≈ 135 Calendar Days ≈ 19.3 Weeks ≈ 4.5 Months ≈ 0.37 Years.
Regardless of the election outcome, in November and December the S&P 500 advances 72.2% of the time.
(Source: Jeff Hirsch - see also HERE)

Stan Harley: November 8 (Tue) = Cycle Low in Stocks + Crude Oil (HERE)

Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur | Jeff Hirsch

Source: Jeff Hirsch's Almanac Trader

One saying for equities on Wall Street has historically been to “sell Rosh Hashanah" (Oct 3-4, 2016 (Mon-Tue)), and to "buy Yom Kippur" (Oct 12, 2016 (Wed)). Or was it vice versa?

Jeff Hirsch presents the data back to 1971: "When the holiday falls on a weekend the prior market close is used. It’s no coincidence that Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur fall in September and/or October, two dangerous and opportune months. We then took it a step further and calculated the return from Yom Kippur to Passover.

[...] Perhaps it’s Talmudic wisdom but, selling stocks before the eight-day span of the high holidays has avoided many declines, especially during uncertain times. While being long Yom Kippur to Passover has produced more than twice as many advances, averaging gains of 7.0%. It often pays to be a contrarian when old bromides are tossed around, buying instead of selling Yom Kippur – and selling Passover." 

Lagging behind the Average Presidential Cycle

Credits: Almanac Trader. See also HERE

DJIA 2014 vs 1997

Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution.
For the methodology see HERE

www.sentimentrader.com

The Stock Trader's Almanac Blog presented December’s typical seasonal pattern pointing to a bottom in stocks this week, possibly Monday, followed by a strong up day and then a nice rally.

www.stocktradersalmanac.com

Time-Price-Projections for a Major Low in Stocks

Credits: Jeff Hirsch - StockTradersAlmanac.com