Showing posts with label Fractal Design of Time. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fractal Design of Time. Show all posts

Thursday, March 14, 2024

Happy Pi Day | Martin A. Armstrong

Perhaps it was my fate or destiny since I grew up in Maple Shade, New Jersey, with the house address of 314 South Lippincott Avenue. What a coincidence.
 
 

When I discovered that list of international panics and divided simply 26 into 224 years, it came out with 8.6153. Multiply that by 365 days = 3,144. Suddenly, the accuracy of the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) made sense – it was Pi, the magic number that the Egyptians even used to build the Pyramids.
 
 
See also:
 
 [The ECM does not track or forecast individual financial instruments, securities, or markets.]

Thursday, January 18, 2024

Quarterly Theory - London and New York AM & PM Setups | Darya Filipenka

 
A 90 minute cycle either plays out as an AMD-X or as a X-AMD pattern:
A = Accumulation/Consolidation (required for a cycle to occur)
M = Manipulation/Expansion
D = Distribution/Expansion
X = Reversal or Continuation
 
Q1 dictates Q2, Q3 and Q4.
If Q1 accumulates (A), Q2 expands (M).
If Q2 accumulates (A), Q4 expands (D).
If Q1 expands, Q2 
accumulates, Q3 expands and Q4 accumulates.
If Q2 expands, Q3 
accumulates.
If Q2 expands, Q3 
accumulates.
If Asia expands, skip London, trade NY and skip the PM session.
If Asia consolidates, trade London, skip NY, then trade the PM Session.
London is more prone to make the high/low of the day whenever Asia consolidates. 
Anticipate price to run the high if you are bearish or the low if you are bullish.
Tuesday is more prone to make the high/low of the week whenever Monday consolidates.
Best trading days will have consolidation during the Asian Session.
 
 
Possible Quarterly Phase Transitions:
  • Accumulation → Expansion: The initial phase A often begins with Accumulation, where price movement remains within a narrow range. This will transition into an expansion phase M.
  • Expansion → Retracement or Reversal: Within the expansion phase, the market can either experience a retracement, where prices pull back temporarily before continuing in the same direction, or a reversal, where the trend changes direction entirely.
  • Retracement → Expansion or Reversal: A retracement, which involves a temporary pullback in prices, can be followed by either an expansion phase or a reversal, depending on how traders react to the retracement.
  • Reversal → Expansion or Retracement: Following a reversal, where the trend direction changes, the market can enter either an expansion phase or a retracement, as traders adapt to the new direction.
  • Expansion → Retracement → Another Leg Up/Down: After an expansion phase, a retracement may occur, followed by another price movement in the same direction, often resulting in another leg up or down in the overall trend.
  • Expansion → Reversal: In the expansion phase, a trend reversal can occur, leading to a shift in price direction.
 

Impossible
Quarterly Phase Transitions:
  • Accumulation → Reversal: A direct transition from Accumulation to reversal is not likely, as Accumulation represents a phase of price stabilization, whereas reversal involves a significant change in trend direction.
  • Accumulation → Retracement: Similarly, a direct transition from Accumulation to retracement is unlikely, as Accumulation involves a range-bound price movement, while retracement implies a temporary pullback in an existing trend.
  • Accumulation → Expansion → Accumulation: After an expansion phase, transitioning directly back into another Accumulation is not a common occurrence. The expansion phase typically leads to further price movement or potential retracement/reversal.
  • Retracement → Reversal: Transitioning directly from a retracement to a reversal without an intermediate expansion phase is improbable, as retracement represents a temporary pause within a trend, whereas reversal involves a fundamental shift in trend direction.
 

Monday, January 15, 2024

Quarterly Theory vs S&P 500 | Week January 15 - 19

Time-price relations are fractal and governed by algorithms. The trading week comprises four time quarters (Q1-Q4): Q1 is Monday, Q2 Tuesday, Q3 Wednesday and Q4 Thursday. Friday has a special function and is not part of this cycle. The market maker's time-price algorithm generates two Q1-Q4 patterns: AMD - X and X - AMD in which Q1-Q4 have the following functions: A   =  Accumulation phase; M  =  Manipulation phase; D  =  Distribution phase and X  =  Continuation or Reversal phase. In the weekly AMD - X pattern Q1 Monday is the Accumulation phase. Q2 Tuesday is the Manipulation phase and the first Q2 price is the weeks True Open. Q3 Wednesday has the 'distribution function' and produces the weeks largest directional move. Q3 is easiest and best to trade. X Thursday continues or reverses the Q3 trend. In the weekly X - AMD pattern Q1 Monday is the X day, Q2 accumulates, Q3 manipulates and Q4 Thursday produces the week's largest directional move; easiest and best to trade.    
 
S&P 500 (4 hour bars)
The Monthly Cycle is comprised of four quarters, one week each. 
Q1 is the first full week of the month, Q2 the second week, etc.
Week January 15 - 19 (Mon-Fri) =
 Q2 week with Accumulation function and AMD - X day pattern. 
 
 S&P 500 (30 minute bars)
 
Each trading day comprises four six hour quarters (EST/New York):
Q1 - 18:00 - 00:00 Asia Session
Q2 - 00:00 - 06:00 London Session (first Q2 price = True Open)
Q3 - 06:00 - 12:00 New York AM Session
Q4 - 12:00 - 18:00 New York PM Session
The algorithm generates two Q1-Q4 session patterns:
AMD - X and X - AMD

Each six hour session comprises four 90 minute quarters (EST/New York):
Q1 - 18:00 - 19:30
Q2 - 19:30 - 21:00 (first Q2 price = True Open)
Q3 - 21:00 - 22:30
Q4 - 22:30 - 00:00
The algorithm generates two Q1-Q4 90 minute patterns:
AMD - X and X - AMD

Each 90 minute cycle comprises four  22.5 minute micro-quarters (EST/New York):
Q1 - 18:00 - 18:22:30
Q2 - 18:22:30 - 18:45 (first Q2 price = True Open)
Q3 - 18:45 - 19:07:30
Q4 - 19:07:30 - 19:30 
The algorithm generates two Q1-Q4 22.5 minute patterns:
AMD - X and X - AMD

Timing Solution spectrum forecast in line with AMD - X day pattern
= one possible outcome for week of January 15 - 19
= Jan 19 (Mon) = double inside day = Q1 A day in a Q2 A week 
= Jan 20 (Tue) = Q2 M day = swing down (Judas Swing)
 = Jan 17 (Wed) 7:30 EST = Q3 D day = Low of the Week (LOW) and reversal up
= Jan 19 (Thu) 21:30 EST = Q4 X day = High of the Week (HOW)
 
Reference:

Saturday, January 13, 2024

The Quarterly Theory | Jevaunie Daye

Time must be divided into quarters for a proper interpretation of market cycles. Blending the Quarterly Theory (not to be confused with the Quarters Theory) and basic ICT concepts leads to enhanced precision. Understanding Quarterly Theory allows to be flexible. It fits in with any style of trading, as it is universal to all time-frames. The Quarterly Theory removes ambiguity, as it gives specific time-based reference points to look for when entering trades. Before being able to apply this theory to trading, one must first understand that time is fractal:

Yearly Quarters = 4 quarters of three months each.
Monthly Quarters = 4 quarters of one week each.
Weekly Quarters = 4 quarters of one day each (Monday - Thursday). Friday has its own specific function.
Daily Quarters = 4 quarters of 6 hours each = 4 trading sessions of a trading day.
Sessions Quarters =  4 quarters of 90 minutes each.
90 Minutes Quarters =  4 quarters of 22.5 minutes each.
 

Yearly Quarters
Q1 - January, February, March
Q2 - April, May, June (True Open)
Q3 - July, August, September
Q4 - October, November, December

Monthly Quarters (starts with the first month’s Monday regardless of the date)
Q1 - Week 1, first Monday of the month
Q2 - Week 2, second Monday of the month (True Open)
Q3 - Week 3, third Monday of the month
Q4 - Week 4, fourth Monday of the month

Weekly Quarters (ignore Friday's and Sunday’s price action)
Q1 - Monday
Q2 - Tueday (True Open)
Q3 - Wednesday
Q4 - Thursday

Daily Quarters  (EST/EDT) comprised of four Sessions of 6 hours each
Q1 - 18:00 - 00:00 Asia
Q2 - 00:00 - 06:00 London (True Open)
Q3 - 06:00 - 12:00 NY AM
Q4 - 12:00 - 18:00 NY PM
 
6 Hour Quarters/Sessions divided into four sections of 90 minutes each  (EST/EDT).
Asian Session
Q1 - 18:00 - 19:30
Q2 - 19:30 - 21:00 (True Open)
Q3 - 21:00 - 22:30
Q4 - 22:30 - 00:00
 London Session
Q1 - 00:00 - 01:30
Q2 - 01:30 - 03:00 (True Open)
Q3 - 03:00 - 04:30
Q4 - 04:30 - 06:00
NY AM Session 
Q1 - 06:00 - 07:30
Q2 - 07:30 - 09:00 (True Open)
Q3 - 09:00 - 10:30
Q4 - 10:30 - 12:00
NY PM Session 
Q1 - 12:00 - 13:30
Q2 - 13:30 - 15:00 (True Open)
Q3 - 15:00 - 16:30
Q4 - 16:30 - 18:00

90 Minute Quarters divided into four Micro Quarters of 22.5 minutes each (EST/EDT).
Asian Session
Q1/1 18:00:00 - 18:22:30
Q2     18:22:30 - 18:45:00
Q3     18:45:00 - 19:07:30
Q4     19:07:30 - 19:30:00
Q2/1 19:30:00 - 19:52:30
Q2/2 19:52:30 - 20:15:00  (True Open)
Q2/3 20:15:00 - 20:37:30
Q2/4 20:37:30 - 21:00:00
Q3/1 21:00:00 - 21:23:30
etc.    21:23:30 - 21:45:00
21:45:00 - 22:07:30
22:07:30 - 22:30:00
22:30:00 - 22:52:30
22:52:30 - 23:15:00
23:15:00 - 23:37:30
23:37:30 - 00:00:00
London Session
00:00:00 - 00:22:30
00:22:30 - 00:45:00
00:45:00 - 01:07:30
01:07:30 - 01:30:00
01:30:00 - 01:52:30
01:52:30 - 02:15:00  (True Open)
02:15:00 - 02:37:30
02:37:30 - 03:00:00
03:00:00 - 03:22:30
03:22:30 - 03:45:00
03:45:00 - 04:07:30
04:07:30 - 04:30:00
04:30:00 - 04:52:30
04:52:30 - 05:15:00
05:15:00 - 05:37:30
05:37:30 - 06:00:00
New York AM Session
06:00:00 - 06:22:30
06:22:30 - 06:45:00
06:45:00 - 07:07:30
07:07:30 - 07:30:00
07:30:00 - 07:52:30
07:52:30 - 08:15:00  (True Open)
08:15:00 - 08:37:30
08:37:30 - 09:00:00
09:00:00 - 09:22:30
09:22:30 - 09:45:00
09:45:00 - 10:07:30
10:07:30 - 10:30:00
10:30:00 - 10:52:30
10:52:30 - 11:15:00
11:15:00 - 11:37:30
11:37:30 - 12:00:00
New York PM Session
12:00:00 - 12:22:30
12:22:30 - 12:45:00
12:45:00 - 13:07:30
13:07:30 - 13:00:00
13:00:00 - 13:22:30
13:22:30 - 13:45:00  (True Open)
13:45:00 - 14:07:30
14:07:30 - 14:30:00
14:30:00 - 14:52:30
14:52:30 - 15:15:00
15:15:00 - 15:37:30
15:37:30 - 16:00:00
16:00:00 - 16:22:30
16:22:30 - 16:45:00
16:45:00 - 17:07:30
17:07:30 - 18:00:00

 
The Monthly Cycle is comprised of four quarters, one week each. Start counting the quarters from the first full week, meaning if the first week relating to the traditional month is a partial week, it is omitted and viewed as distortion. The first full week of the month is the first quarter, the second week is the second quarter, the third week is the third quarter and the fourth week is the fourth quarter.

The Weekly Cycle is comprised of four quarters, one day each. Monday is the first quarter, Tuesday is the second quarter, Wednesday is the third quarter and Thursday is the fourth quarter. Friday is not included into the weekly cycle due to the fact that it has its own specific function.

The Daily Cycle is comprised of four quarters, six hours each, which perfectly aligns with the four trading sessions of a trading day. The first quarter is the Asian session, the second quarter is the London session, the third quarter is the New York session and the fourth quarter is the afternoon session. 
 
Each Session is comprised of four quarters, 90 minutes each. During the Asian session, the 90 minute cycles are as follows: 6pm to 7.30pm is the first quarter, 7.30pm to 9pm is the second quarter, 9pm to 10.30pm is the third quarter and 10.30pm to 12.00pm midnight is the fourth quarter. During the London session, the first quarter is 12.00am midnight to 1.30am. The second quarter is 1.30am to 3.00am. The third quarter is 3.00am to 4.30am. The fourth quarter is 4.30am to 6.00am. During the New York session, the first quarter is 6.00am to 7.30am. The second quarter is 7.30am to 9.00am. The third quarter is 9.00am to 10.30am. And the fourth quarter is 10.30am to 12.00pm. During the Afternoon session the first quarter is 12.00pm to 1.30pm. The second quarter is 1.30pm to 3.00pm. The third quarter is 3.00pm to 4.30pm. And the fourth quarter is 4.30pm to 6.00pm.

Now that we understand that time is fractal, we can begin to look into the functions of some of the quarters. Price is delivered by an algorithm. So there must be some initial input which is used to make decisions throughout each cycle. This is the function of Q1. Q1 dictates the quarters which follow, meaning Q1 is used as a barometer for forecasting market conditions in the subsequent quarters of each cycle. If the first quarter is overextended, expect the second quarter to consolidate, and if the first quarter is in a tight range, expect the second quarter to expand. 
 
 
True Opens are the main components of quarterly theory. There are specific openings of price which serve as a time-based filter for gauging manipulation swings or stop-hunts. True opens are the beginning of Q2 of every cycle.  True Opens are defined by these times:
  • Yearly True Open = 1st Monday of April.
  • Monthly True Open = 2nd Monday of the month.
  • Weekly True Open = 6:00 PM EST every Monday.
  • Daily True Open = 12:00 P.M (Midnight) EST time.
  • NY Session True Open = 7:30 A.M EST time.
  • Asian Session True Open = 7:30 P.M EST time.
  • London Session True Open = 1:30 A.M EST time. 
 
Buy below True Open. Sell above True Open.
 
 
It is a simple concept to understand. If you are bullish within a specific cycle, you want to buy below its true open, and if you are bearish within a specific cycle, you want to sell above its true open. This will increase your accuracy tremendously, as key levels usually rest above or below true opens. Every cycle has its own true open. The true year open is the opening price of the first Monday of April. The true month open is the opening price of the second Monday of the month. The true week open is Monday at 6 p.m. The true day open is 12 o'clock midnight. The true open of the age on session is 7 30 p.m. The true open of the London session is 1 30 a.m. The true open of the New York session is 7 30 a.m. And the true open of the afternoon session is 1 30 p.m. The image to the right depicts how true opens function during bullish market environments.

There are two sets of instructions that the algorithm follows:  

AMD-X and X-AMD
 
A = Accumulation (required for a cycle to occur)
M = Manipulation
D = Distribution
X = Reversal or Continuation

After a tight Q1 range the Q2 Manipulation Phase begins. ICT calls this the 'Judas Swing'. According to his algorithmic theory, the purpose of this fake move is to get traders offside. After Q2 the real move takes place: the Q3 distribution phase and is usually the easiest to trade as the previous quarter has already established a trend of the cycle. The fourth phase is X which can either continue to establish range of the cycle or reverse. In regards to this example, the fourth quarter is reversal. As you can see, price reverses at Higher Time Frame Premium-Discount Arrays (PDAs) or key levels. 
 
 The AMD-Principle is represented in every bar of every time-frame (monthly, weekly, daily, 4 Hour, etc.) 
with a price value at which it starts trading (opening price), the highest price value (high), the lowest (low), 
and  a value of the time it ends trading (close).

Liquidity is induced when price breaches old highs and old lows while trading into key levels. If you usually trade with the one minute chart, you need a 15 minute PDA. If you usually trade with the five minute chart, you need a one hour PDA. If you usually trade with the 15 minute chart, you need a four hour PDA. If you usually trade with the one hour chart, you need a daily PDA. And if you usually trade with the four hour chart, you need a weekly PDA. 
 
Regarding X-AMD, the first quarter is the continuation or reversal of the previous Q. Of the previous cycle, using what we understand from the function of Q1, Q2 should then accumulate, resulting in high range price action. Q3 would then be the manipulation phase. However, the rules for the true opens are static. They don't change. The opening price of Q2 will always be its true open. So if the profile that you're looking at is X-AMD, even though accumulation takes place during Q2, you will use the opening price of Q2, which is its true open to gauge, the Judah swing, which will present itself more times or not in Q3. The last phase will be the distribution phase, which will be the easiest phase to trade in regards to X-AMD. 
 
Dividing a 90 Minute Cycle into 22.5 Minute Quarters (Micro Sessions).
 
 
Quarterly Theory - the Hack of the Algorithm?
Is this proof of the algorithm existing or not? I do think so;-) 
And it's mind blowing how this fractal quarterly theory happens over and over again.  

 S&P 500 (15 minute bars)
Week January 08 (Monday) to January 11 (Thu) =
X-AMD Weekly Quarters Template  +   
AMD-X Monthly Quarters Template  +   
X-AMD Yearly Quarters Template

Friday, October 14, 2022

The Name of God & The Rule of Nine | Martin A. Armstrong

Martin A. Armstrong (2008) - Just about everyone knows the "666" omen, but strikingly, most do not know the number of the name the Jews gave to God - "Jehovah." If we use the old Hebrew system we can find the number of God. Yod = 10, He = 5, and Van = 6. Therefore, the name of God in Hebrew He Van He Yod equals 5 + 6 + 5 + 10 = 26. The number of the name assigned to God by the Jews is 26.
 
 
I explained that I discovered the 8.6 year cycle by adding up the total number of financial panics between 1683 and 1907, which created a time-space of 224 years. I found that there were 26 financial panics and then divided that into the 224 years to obtain an average. That produced the 8.6 year frequency. Only when it began to project to specific days, then I decided to study much deeper. There is, the fact that it appeared to be intricately complex running concurrent with countless other cyclical behavior be it natural or man himself in a sort of time-space tube created by an interdependent, self-referral field network whereby, the output of each and every iteration becomes the input for the next generation perpetuating patterns of order in such a dynamic structure, that one cannot see the order of the whole for the mask of superficial chaos. There simply is yet a separate and distinct core frequency of 26 running through the center of the field causing not merely Phase-Transitions, but also Phase-Shifts and Phase-Cancellations when two cycles indeed collide of equal yet opposite forces.

1929 - 1955 - 1981 - 2007

The above sequence of dates provides a simple demonstration of the interesting relationship of 26 to the Economic Confidence Model. The high on the last Private 51.6 year Wave was 1929.75. If we simply take the annual count of 26, we produce the above time series, The great expansion of U.S. debt began from the 1955 post-war target where spending without regard to maintaining the ratio to gold may safely be defined as the start of the perpetual. spending. The next target 1981, was the high of the Public Wave of 51.6 years marked by the peak in interest rates and the open battle against inflation. This brings us to 2007, where the model has correctly given the high 2007.15 that targeted to the day, the start of this economic decline.

Previously, we looked at two time series, one beginning from 1775 marking the start of the American Revolution, contrasted with 1788 that marked the beginning of the federal government with the Constitution. The differential between these two series is half the 26 cycle - 13 years. It is twice 26 that produces the number 52 that we will see is central to the Maya, but was also the observation of the commodity cycle noted by Kondratieff - the Russian economist. We can see that the timing interval of 26 is a critical and interesting number to say the least.
 
Another kabala number of mystery has been attributed to the famous Gaon from Vilna who discovered that the Hebrew
word for truth (taf-mem-aleph) produces the number taf = 400, mem = 40, and aleph = 1 added together 441 = 9.
It was argued that God created the world based upon truth, which is the number 9. If you take any number greater
than 9, add the individual numbers, and subtract the original, we end up with a number divisible by 9.

 
Whether 26 is the "God Cycle" is interesting. Hipparchus of Rhodes observed around 150 BC that the equinoxes moved with time. This is where the Sun's path crosses the celestial equator. He realized that these were not fixed in time and space but traveled in a cyclical manner. The movement was extremely slow in a westerly direction. This amounted to but less than 2° in about 150 years. This slow movement is known as the "Precession of the Equinoxes" and requires generations to even observe. It is less than 2° movement every 150 years, bringing this also to a virtual number of close to 26,000 years to complete one cycle.

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

The Fractal Design of Time | Martin A. Armstrong

 
 
The Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is a computer model that analyzes the global economy by tracking capital flows and concentration, providing a macro long-term perspective of when shifts in confidence are possible that could lead to notable economic events as demonstrated over the course of history.
  • The model consists of cycle waves that vary in length, from shorter to longer, and build up over time; for example, 8.6 to 51.6 to 309.6 years.
  • It examines these cycle waves to discover when they are set to culminate, reflecting a possible shift in market confidence at that point in time.
  • This shift in confidence is reflected by capital flows and concentration.
  • The longer the cycle wave, the greater the magnitude of the shift in confidence.
  • The dates in the model that reflect possible shifts are referred to as ECM turning points.
The ECM does not track or forecast individual financial instruments, securities, or markets.

Thursday, March 15, 2012

The 8.6 Year Global Business Cycle 2002 - 2028 | Martin A. Armstrong

We have now crossed that peak in the current wave — 2007.15 (February 27th, 2007). We can see that the Economic Confidence Model projects out beyond my life expectancy and it will function long after I am gone as it did long before I was born. These 8.6 year waves that reflect the Business Cycle are calculated by taking the per cent of 365 days for that year. For example, 2015.75 produces (.75 x 365) that is 273.75 days into that year = October 1st, 2015. The low for this current economic debacle should be 2011.45 = June 13th, 2011.
 

The minor mid wave turning points break down as the first leg being 2.15 years or a quarter of the 8.6 year wave. The next quarter wave is typically broken into half again creating two 1.075 year weaves. We can see that in the current wave, the mid-wave turning points were 1908.225 (March 23, 2008) and 2009.3 (March 19th, 2009). Typically, these waves do not produce specific turning points to the day as is the case at the major turning points. This is due to the fact that internally there is yet another layer of activity, the 8.6 month cycle that constitute 6 weeks within each leg of the 8.6 year cycle. Again we see the structure following groupings of 6 units. This 8.6 month level of activity constitutes 37.33 weeks. There is yet another layer beneath this calculated in 8.6 week intervals, followed by still another 8.6 days, hours, minutes and believe it or not seconds.
 

2002.850  =  2000-Nov-06 (Mon)  =  Major Low
2005.000  =  2005-Jan-01 (Sat)  =  High
2006.075  =  2006-Jan-28 (Sat)  =  Low
2007.150  =  2007-Feb-24 (Sat)  =  Major High
2008.225  =  2008-Mar-23 (Sun)  =  Low
2009.300  =  2009-Apr-20 (Mon)  =  High
2011.450  =  2011-Jun-14 (Tue)  =  Major Low
2013.600  =  2013-Aug-08 (Thu)  =  High
2014.675  =  2014-Sep-04 (Thu)  =  Low
2015.750  =  2015-Oct-01 (Thu)  =  Major High
2016.825  =  2016-Oct-28 (Fri)  =  Low
2017.900  =  2017-Nov-25 (Sat)  =  High
2020.050  =  2020-Jan-19 (Sun)  =  Major Low
2022.200  =  2022-Mar-15 (Tue)  =  High
2023.275  =  2023-Apr-11 (Tue)  =  Low
2024.350  =  2024-May-07 (Tue)  =  Major High
2025.425  =  2025-Jun-05 (Thu)  =  Low
2026.500  =  2026-Jul-02 (Thu)  =  High
2028.650  =  2028-Aug-25 (Fri)  =  Major Low