Unraveling the Hurst Cycles Harmony of the US Stock Market | David Hickson

A Hurst cycles analysis essentially functions as a fairly complex puzzle in which every cycle must fit precisely into place, primarily because the cycle troughs must be synchronized whenever possible. The harmonic ratios of the cycles within Hurst's nominal model are related to one another by a simple factor of two-to-one, and only the 54-year and 54-month cycles maintain a relationship of three-to-one. 

S&P 500 (monthly candles), 1997-2039: 9-year (red) and 54-month (orange) cycles.

If we were to position Hurst’s classic 9-year nominal cycle trough in 2020, we would produce a rather unbalanced cyclical analysis. Consequently, the 2018 placement is, in my opinion, a much more appropriate position for this nine-year cycle trough. We have had very regular nine-year cycles beating from the trough in 1998, continuing through the 2009 trough to the 2018 trough. Following this progression, the next nine-year cycle trough is expected to occur in approximately 2027.

 

The classic 9-year model, tracking a recent average 10.1-year wavelength, identifies major troughs in 2002, 2009, and 2018; it dismisses the deeper March 2020 low as Fundamental Interaction to preserve the model's harmonic ratios. Currently, this model places the market in the bearish third of three 18-month cycles following an October 2022 trough, forecasting a significant decline into a synchronized 9-year nest of lows by mid-2027.

 

S&P 500 (daily candles), November 2025 to September 2026: The orange dashed 

Composite Model Line (CML) is a summation of all underlying cycles of the 9-year model:

Current nominal 20-week cycle = 16.9 weeks; 80-day cycle = 57 days; 40-day cycle = 31 days; 20-day cycle = 15.4 days. 

Conversely, the 7-year model utilizes a 14-year/7-year rhythm visible in the 2002, 2009, 2016, and 2022 troughs. By phasing the October 2022 low as a major 14-year trough, this model explains recent persistent strength and suggests the market is in the first of three 18-month cycles, implying a more bullish structural backdrop. Despite these long-term differences, both models converge on a near-term projection: an early 2026 peak followed by a corrective move into an 18-month cycle trough around June or July 2026. 

 

S&P 500 (daily candles), April 2025 to September 2026: The orange dashed Composite 

Model Line (CML) is a summation of all underlying cycles of the 7-year model:

Current nominal 20-week cycle = 13.6 weeks; 80-day cycle = 56.5 days; 40-day cycle = 28 days; 20-day cycle = 13.8 days. 

S&P 500 (daily candles), December 2025 to February 2026, and orange dashed 7-year model CML.

 

 Nominal 9-Year Cycle vs Actual 7-Year Cycle.

Tactically, both models recognize a 40-week cycle trough on November 21, 2025, and the 80-day cycle trough on January 21. A peak is expected in late-Q1 early-Q2, to be followed by a significant mid-year correction into June-July.

 

 Reference:
David Hickson (January 26, 2026) - Deep Cycle Dive: SPX - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)

 

Structure of Hurst's original nominal 20- and 40-day cycles and CMLs.

See also:

J.M. Hurst's Principles of Commonality and Variation. 

Namzes (January 5, 2026) - 2026 Hurst Cycles Playbook for the S&P 500. 

Nicholas D. Savino (January 1, 2026) - January 2026 S&P 500 Forecast. 

NDR (December 31, 2025) - 2026 S&P 500 Composite: Seasonal, Presidential, and Decennial Cycles. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices.