Federal Funds Rates & Solar Activity: Projection through 2031 | Vladimir Belkin

The present study compares the serial years of the average solar cycle with the arithmetic mean values of the effective US Federal Funds Rate for the period 1955–2025. 

Serial Numbers of Solar Cycle years (1 to 13) and Federal Funds Rates (%) projected through 2031. 

 

[...] The correlation between the serial number of solar cycle years and average Fed rates is extremely strong, with coefficients reaching -0.999 during years 5–7 and 0.994 during years 1–5. The serial number for the year 2026 in the current Solar Cycle 25 is 7. [...] Consequently, the forecasted Fed rate for 2026 is [...] 3.052%. The forecasted Fed rate for 2027 is [...] 3.558%. 

 

[According to Belkin's methodology, the Fed rate should rise and peak in 2029 at around 5.5%.]

Reference:
Vladimir A. Belkin (January 1, 2026) -  Federal Funds Rates and Solar Activity (1955–2025): Evidence of a Very High Correlation.
[СТАВКИ ПО ФЕДЕРАЛЬНЫМ ФОНДАМ И СОЛНЕЧНАЯ АКТИВНОСТЬ (1955-2025): ДОКАЗАТЕЛЬСТВО ОЧЕНЬ ВЫСОКОЙ КОРРЕЛЯЦИИ.] 

[Note: As of May 1, 2026, the Federal Reserve has set the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%., with the most recent daily effective federal funds rate (EFFR) recorded at 3.64%.]

Federal Funds Rate versus US Treasury 2-Year Yield: Does the Fed follow market rates—or lead them? 

See also:
 Vladimir A. Belkin (2014) - "Cosmic Cycles of Global Conjuncture" and Outlook into 2035. 

Vladimir A. Belkin (2024) - 2025-2027 Oil Price Decline Linked to Solar Cycle Activity.

Vladimir A. Belkin (2024) - Strong Inverse Correlation between Ap Index and Gold Price.

Aleksander Valkov (2025) - Helioeconomics: Solar Cycles as the Hidden Pacemaker of Global Economic Fluctuations.

Leonty Miroshnichenko (2023) - Kondratiev Waves Aligned with Solar Cycles.

"Does the Son of the Dust Know Anything More Beautiful?" | Einar Ben

Following the intense Northern Lights displays triggered by a G4 geomagnetic storm on January 19, 2026, forecasts now predict a Kp index of 4 for January 21. These auroras are currently visible across Iceland, Greenland, and the northern parts of Scandinavia, Russia, Canada and Alaska.

 

 Iceland, January 20, 2026.

 

» Does the son of the dust know anything more beautiful
than the palace of gods in electronic flames?
By the universe bosom everything is fire
and decoration of slithering northern lights.
From the seventh heaven to the ocean’s horizon... «

 
Norðurljós ("Northern Lights") by Einar Ben (1864–1940).

  

NOAA SWPC daily maximum expected global geomagnetic conditions (Kp) for the coming 27 days.

 

See also:

Financial Markets and Solar Activity.

Helioeconomics.

Ap Index of Geomagnetic Activity and S&P 500 Returns | Lifang Peng et al.

Existing research provides strong evidence that geomagnetic activity impacts stock investment decisions by influencing human health, mood, and behavior. Using monthly geomagnetic indices and US stock market indices from the past 20 years, we found compelling evidence supporting a causal relationship between geomagnetic activity and stock market returns.

 

High AP Index, low stock market performance—really?

Sunspot Number and Ap Index 2018 into 2032 (NASA, updated December 5, 2024).

 

The results were robust, indicating that higher geomagnetic activity, which often corresponds with intense solar activity, is inversely related to stock market performance. In other words, when geomagnetic activity was higher, the stock market tended to perform worse.

Reference:
Lifang Peng, Ning Li, Jingwen Pan (2019) - Effect of Ap Index of Geomagnetic Activity on S&P 500 Stock Market Return.

 

S&P 500 (daily candles) vs Ap Index. 

 The semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity is linked to the interaction between the solar wind and Earth's tilted magnetic field, which typically causes increased geomagnetic disturbances around the equinoxes and lower activity around the solstices.

 

See also:
Vladimir Belkin (2024) - Strong Inverse Correlation between Ap Index and Gold Price. 

Vladimir Belkin (2024) - 2025-2027 Oil Price Decline Linked to Solar Cycle Activity. 

Bojan S. Dimitrijević et al. (2016) - Sunspots and Stock Markets: Evidence of their Interdependence in Transition Countries.

Mikhail Gorbanev (2012) - Sunspots, Unemployment, and Recessions: Can the Solar Activity Cycle shape the Business Cycle?

Robert R. Prechter and Peter Kendall (2011) - The Sunspot Cycle and Stocks.

Anna Krivelyova and Cesare Robotti (2003) - Playing the Field: Geomagnetic Storms and the Stock Market.

Strong Inverse Correlation between Ap Index and Gold Price | Vladimir Belkin

A strong inverse correlation (coefficient -0.7879) between the geomagnetic Ap Index and the gold price, with a one-year lag, is observed over 57 years of data.

 

 Strong inverse correlation, with a one-year lag—seriously?

 

Based on the results of his study, the author predicts a significant decline in the price of gold in 2024.

 

Reference: 

Vladimir Belkin (January 2024) - Geomagnetic Ap Index (1966-2022) and the Price of Gold with a Lag of 1 Year (1967-2023): Evidence of a Strong Inverse Correlation. 

Ap Index 2018 into 2032 (NASA, updated December 5, 2024).

 

 Gold (weekly bars) – January 1 to December 17, 2024: +28%.

S&P 500 vs Solar Activity (10.7 cm Radio Flux, Sunspots, and Ap Index)

SPX vs Solar Activity | 10.7 cm Flux | Sunspots | Ap Index

SPX vs Solar Activity | Sunspots | 10.7 cm Flux | Ap Index

Raj Times and Cycles forecasted the next short term Low for October 10 (Mon) +/-1 TD (HERE)

The Presidential, Decennial, and Annual Cycles all point to a low in US-stocks on Monday, October 10 (HERE).

SPX vs Solar Activity