Showing posts with label Reversal Patterns. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Reversal Patterns. Show all posts

Saturday, August 22, 2026

Small Ranges Beget Large Ranges | Larry Williams

Let's have a look at the Key High-Low Reversal Pattern: A market is said to top when it makes a higher high and a higher low but closes down for the day or week. At a bottom, it makes a lower low and a lower high but closes up.
 
But does this "Textbook" Reversal Pattern actually work?
 
Most technical analysis books describe this as a "classic reversal pattern." But when you examine actual charts, it doesn't consistently work that way. 
 
This can be in fact a dangerous pattern to rely on.
 
Major tops and bottoms rarely produce a key reversal. Instead, markets often top by closing near the high and bottom by closing near the low. Key reversal signals are relatively rare, and many fail. So be careful with them. What happens after the reversal may be more useful, particularly when the reversal fails. So, what does work?

Small ranges often precede large, explosive moves.
 
Markets tend to cycle from small ranges to large ranges. When we see a series of small ranges, we know that a significant move may be developing. The important point is that small ranges tell us something is coming, but not necessarily which direction

What are we waiting for? Small ranges.

The Average True Range (ATR) provides a useful way to identify small and large ranges. When the ATR is low, the market is often preparing for an explosive move. We don't know whether that move will be up or down, but we know volatility may be about to expand. Conversely, very high ranges often occur near market lows. Markets frequently decline on larger ranges and rally on smaller ranges.

Markets tend to decline on larger ranges and rally on smaller ranges.

Very low ranges can signal that an explosive move is approaching, while very high ranges can occur near selling extremes.
Small ranges therefore provide a useful setup, not a complete trading signal. You still need to consider trend, overbought/oversold conditions, and other indicators to determine direction. This requires patience. Most short-term traders struggle to wait for the right conditions. Jesse Livermore put it well: "There are times to speculate and times not to speculate." Short-term traders often want to trade constantly, but patience is essential. As Livermore said, "I permitted impatience to outmaneuver good judgment." Think of trading like a card game: you have to wait for the right cards.

Sunday, August 16, 2026

Three-Bar Reversal (3BR+/-) and Effort vs. Result | Toby Crabel

The Three-Bar Reversal with Ease of Movement in bar three of the pattern is one of the better patterns I have seen in markets on all time frames.
Chart 1: Nasdaq 5-minute chart with the Three-Bar Reversal pattern (3BR+/-).
When 
there is a high reading of effort vs. result, it indicates that the market
moved 
an unusually large magnitude for the amount of volume utilized.
 
First, you would not want to go against ease of movement anyway, but when it also shows laboring on the middle bar (bar 2), it is an even stronger indication. If the first bar of the pattern has an effort vs. result reading lower than bar 3, it is even more convincing. If bar 1 is also laboring along with bar 2, and then bar 3 reverses both bars completely, that is the strongest possibility.

Generally, I don’t have to have a pattern to trade, but the convenience of a three-bar reversal is the risk management that is naturally provided with the pattern. In the case of a 3BR+ with ease of movement in bar 3, the stop can be placed below the low of the 3rd bar or below the low of the whole pattern, a more conservative stop. After a pattern like this, pullbacks should be used for long entries with stops at the crucial areas. If stopped out, you know there was a failure, and an exit is a good decision.
 
Chart 2: A close-up of the reversal at (D), showing bars 1 and 2
laboring before bar 3 reverses with ease of movement.
The 3BR is related to the two-bar reversal (2BR), the four-bar reversal (4BR), and the outside bar (OB), which is a form of all the above in most cases. But with an outside bar, you want to be sure you get a significant reading of ease of movement. They are all frequently developing in major reversal areas.

Thursday, February 19, 2026

One Trading Strategy for Life: The "Daily Sweep" | JadeCap

The 'Daily Sweep' strategy changed my life forever, powering me to a world-record $2.5 million payout from Apex Trader Funding in April 2024. Before mastering this methodology, I was caught in the cycle of 'strategy hopping,' constantly jumping from one system to the next. That ended here. This approach is the last one I will ever need, and my goal today is to teach it to you in full. By the end of this, you’ll have a clear, mechanical system to help you escape the noise and finally achieve consistent profitability.
 
» Mark all hourly swing points that haven't yet been traded to from yesterday leading up to 8AM.
If we are trading beyond yesterday's price action, use the next most recent day. «
 
Step One: Identifying Hourly Swing Points
Step one is deceptively simple, yet its precise execution is mandatory for the rest of the system to work. Every morning at 8:00 a.m. EST—ninety minutes before the US equity open—I sit down to map out the field. I meticulously mark every hourly swing point from the previous day leading up to the current session. If price action has moved beyond yesterday's range, simply pull data from the next most recent day. This pre-market routine ensures that by 9:30 a.m., I have a crystal-clear map of where liquidity is resting.  

» By 9:30 a.m., I have a crystal-clear map of where liquidity is resting. «  
Higher highs and higher lows or lower highs and lower lows?
 
It is critical to perform this analysis exclusively on the one-hour timeframe. While intraday trading involves lower timeframes, we require the one-hour chart to serve as our higher timeframe anchor to guide our decision-making. In the context of the Daily Sweep model, the hourly chart provides the necessary indication of when we can begin hunting for specific setups. We do not descend into lower timeframes until we receive high-level confirmation on the hourly chart.

To understand this step, one must first master the technical definition of a swing point. A swing low is defined by a three-candle pattern where a specific candle’s low is flanked by two candles with higher lows. Once the third candle in the sequence closes at the top of the hour, the central low is officially validated as a bullish swing point. Conversely, a swing high occurs when a central candle is flanked by two candles with lower highs. Again, we must wait for the closure of the third hourly candle before that peak is confirmed as a bearish swing point.

These swing points are vital because they allow us to identify market structure. When the market creates higher highs and higher lows, it is objectively bullish; lower highs and lower lows indicate a bearish trend. In a trending market, opposing swing points will often fail as the trend continues. However, the market rarely moves in a linear fashion, and we frequently see short-term "runs" on these swing points—where the market raids a low to gather liquidity before continuing higher. As traders, we are not seeking 100% certainty; rather, we are making a high-probability educated guess, ideally with a 60% to 70% success rate, to align ourselves with the higher timeframe trend.

Step Two: The Swing Failure Pattern (SFP)
Once you have identified your major swing points, you must integrate the concept of the Swing Failure Pattern (SFP). Without this secondary layer, the identified swing points are merely arbitrary lines on a chart. An SFP occurs when the price briefly breaches a significant swing high or low but reverses rapidly, failing to sustain momentum and closing back within the previous range. This phenomenon indicates a liquidity grab or a potential trend reversal.

Bullish and Bearish Swing Failure Patterns: When price briefly breaks a significant swing high or low but quickly reverses, 
failing to sustain the move and closing back within the previous range, indicating a potential trend reversal or liquidity grab. 
Why do they work? Instead of trying to anticipate the reversal, this provides confirmation that it is actually happening. 

In the marketplace, liquidity often clusters around these swing points. Traders entering "long" positions typically place their protective stop-loss orders just below a swing low, while "short" sellers place theirs above a swing high. The SFP allows us to capitalize on the moment these stop-losses are triggered. We are looking for the market to run through a swing point and then show a definitive rejection in the opposite direction.

A key distinction must be made: the mere breach of a level is not an SFP. We require a strong closure back within the range for confirmation. For instance, if the market raids a swing low, we do not simply buy the moment the level is touched; we wait for a bullish hourly candle to close back above that previous low. This provides confirmation that the "Smart Money" has entered the market, allowing us to ride their coattails rather than attempting to front-run the move.
 
"In professional trading, you do not want to be the first person rushing through the door. Those who rush in first are often the ones who get shot. Waiting for confirmation allows you to capture the 'meat' of the move rather than obsessing over 'top-ticking' or 'bottom-ticking' the market."

My mentors at a major Chicago trading firm emphasized that this filter saves significant capital. In my earlier years, I lost thousands of dollars attempting to trade "Turtle Soups" or liquidity raids by entering as soon as a level was breached. I would often watch the price drift slightly further, trigger my stop loss, and only then move in my intended direction. By waiting for the hourly SFP closure, we ensure that the lows or highs we are trading against are protected by confirmed institutional activity.

Intraday Execution and Case Studies
Once an SFP is confirmed on the one-hour chart, you can transition to lower timeframes—such as the one-minute, five-minute, or fifteen-minute charts—to refine your entry. The goal is to anticipate that the next several hourly candles will trade in the direction indicated by the SFP.

 NASDAQ (hourly charts): Setups and Trading Examples.

Looking at the NASDAQ (NQ) as an example (charts above), we can observe this pattern nearly every day. On a typical morning, if we identify a swing low and witness an SFP at the 8:00 a.m. candle closure, we can anticipate a bullish expansion during the New York session. In one specific instance, an SFP provided a move with a 3R (three times the risk) return on the hourly chart alone. If a trader were to refine that entry on a five-minute chart with a tighter stop-loss, the reward-to-risk ratio could be significantly higher.

All Five ICT Entry Models
: Premium/Discount, Liquidity Raids, 
Fair Value Gaps, Order Blocks, and Breaker Blocks. 
 
It is important to note certain market conditions, such as holiday gaps. For example, during the period surrounding Thanksgiving and Black Friday, the lack of overnight data can make SFPs "sketchy" or unreliable. In such cases, it is often prudent to wait for the market to return to normal volume. However, on standard trading days, the pattern is remarkably consistent. Whether the market is trending or ranging, plotting the previous day's swing points and waiting for a session-open SFP—during either the London or New York sessions—provides a crystal-clear roadmap.  
 

ooo00O00ooo
 
I encourage you to perform your own "homework" by backtesting this on your charts. Plot your hourly swing points, identify the swing failure patterns, and observe how the subsequent hourly candles behave. This is the exact strategy I utilized to generate millions of dollars. While many traders have access to profitable strategies, they often fail due to a lack of discipline. I struggled for ten years before I was able to make this work, but by sticking to this one clear system, you can finally overcome the cycle of inconsistency.

Monday, January 20, 2025

How Markets Move: The Natural Cycle of Range Change │ Larry Williams

Markets typically shift from small ranges to larger trend moves. When the market is in a large trend move, wait for it to settle into smaller ranges before getting involved. This gives more reliable setups when the market trends again. Market tops generally occur when the price closes well off its low, while market bottoms happen when the price closes near its low. Most traders get emotional during these times, buying at tops and selling at bottoms. Once you understand this, it becomes easier to make smarter trades.

Small Ranges Beget Large Ranges. Large Ranges Beget Small Ranges.


Markets move from congestion to creation (expansion), transitioning from small ranges to larger, more defined trend moves. A small range signals buildup, and a large range signals an impending trend. If I see a small net change from open to close, I know a large trend move is likely coming and am prepared to act on it. Here’s an example using the NASDAQ: Notice how volume fluctuates throughout the day: heavy volume in the morning, a dip in the middle, and a surge towards the end. 

"U" shaped intraday: Heavy volume in the morning, a dip in the middle, a surge at the end.

This pattern is consistent across markets. It’s like a freeway: traffic is heavy in the morning, dies down in the middle of the day, and picks up in the afternoon. Understanding this helps day traders identify opportunities in the morning and towards the end of the day, while avoiding the midday lull. Volume drives range, and large ranges happen at the start and end of the day. This is when short-term traders make money. We need volatility and large ranges to profit.

 There are three key cycles in market behavior: 
(1) small range/large range, (2) moving closes within ranges, and (3) closes opposite openings. 
All three cycles work equally well in any timeframe and market.
"Do yourself a big favor: Mark off all the large-range days [in the chart above], and then study the size of the ranges just
prior to explosive up-and-down days. See what I see? We are given ample warning of virtually every large-range day 
by the shrinkage of ranges a few days earlier."

The key takeaway for short-term traders is that not every day offers a high-probability trade. You need to identify days with potential for explosive moves and not expect large profits daily. It’s about finding that opportunity.

As for market tops, they usually occur when prices close near their highs, and bottoms happen when prices close near their lows. Focus on these closing patterns to determine when to buy and sell.

Trend is a function of time. The more time in a trade, the more opportunity for trend.

The most important insight in trading is that trends are the basis of all profits. Without a trend, there are no profits. But what causes trends? Trends are fundamentally a function of time—the more time you hold a trade, the more opportunity for a trend to develop. The challenge with day trading is that trends occur only about 15% of the time. Most of the time, prices are consolidating, making it difficult to catch a big trend move. Limiting yourself to a few hours of trading only targets that small window when trends are likely to occur.

 My Day Trade Secret: HTTC - Hold To The Close.

The day trader dilemma is that they have limited time to catch trends. Holding positions overnight allows you to capture longer trends and larger profits. A small bet with the potential for a big move is the key advantage of holding positions over time. 
 
 » How you know a large trend move is coming. «
 
Many day traders are afraid to hold positions overnight. However, if you do the math, you'll see that most market moves happen between the close of one day and the open of the next. Moves within the day are often smaller and less reliable. For short-term traders, the key to success is recognizing large range days and holding positions to the close. This is how you catch a big move during the day.
 
 
 » Hold To The Close. « 
S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily bars).
 Narrow Range 4 & 7 Days and Inside Bar Narrow Range 4 & 7 Days.

 Narrow Range 4 & 7 Days and Inside Bar Narrow Range 4 & 7 Days.

See also:

Saturday, September 14, 2024

Price Action Patterns & Entries at High and Low of the Day | Cameron Benson

Our focus is on price action trading at key levels: daily high and low, and the previous day's extremes. We examine how price reaches these levels — through Stair-Stepping or Ramping — and its subsequent behavior. The price action patterns include M's, W's, Double Tops/Bottoms, and Pin Hammers at daily highs and lows. 
 
 Stair-Stepping and M Patterns: These indicate potential reversals at daily highs or lows, 
with detailed entries and exits often managed through lower time frames.

Ramping is characterized by parabolic price movements and often leads to swift reversals. Observing tight candle patterns with minimal overlap helps identify strong trends and potential breakouts. We also look for specific patterns like Stair-Stepping and Three Pushes, with Peak Formations signaling possible reversals.

 
 Ramping Behavior: Recognized by tight, parabolic moves followed by rapid reversals. 
The ramp into extremes usually signals significant price shifts.


The following 5 minute charts of the NASDAQ are from last week
(September  9-13, 2024). They show Entry and Exit Strategies, using Pin Hammers and Engulfments for Entries, and managing stops based on price action, with adjustments for larger, more volatile bars.

Monday, September  9 (Day 1 of 3 Day Cycle):
 
 Identified an M pattern at the high of the day with a pin hammer and engulfment, suggesting a strong short entry.

Tuesday, September  10 (Day 2):

 
Despite a promising setup, a large entry bar resulted in a stop-out. 
Emphasis on avoiding large entry bars and managing risk.
 
Wednesday, September 11 (Day 3/1)
 
 Similar to previous days with M patterns and engulfments, also highlighting entry points and risk management.

Thursday (Day 2) and Friday (Day 3), September 12-13:
 
 Charts show patterns like descending triangles and W formations, 
with a focus on understanding price behavior relative to session timings.
 
Successful short-term trading relies on recognizing and acting upon the above presented price action patterns, managing entries and exits based on contextual behavior, and adapting strategies according to the specific market conditions within the 3 Day Cycle.