Showing posts with label Imbalance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Imbalance. Show all posts

Monday, December 1, 2025

Engulfing Bar Strategy | JadeCap

This one pattern helped me make over $4 million in the last three years and even break the world-record payout at Apex. Let me show you exactly how it works:
 
» For a true engulfing pattern, the new candle must break the previous candle’s low and the previous candle’s high. «
 
What Is an Engulfing Bar? We’re simply looking for two candles—along with proper context—to define the pattern: Imagine we have a down candle with its open, high, low, and close. The next candle is what determines whether we have an engulfing bar. For a true engulfing pattern, the new candle must break the previous candle’s low and the previous candle’s high. It completely “engulfs” the previous range (aka Outside Bar/Candle).
 
So picture the first down candle closing. The next candle runs below that low, takes it out, reverses, pushes above the prior high, and closes somewhere near the top half of its range. That two-candle formation gives us a tremendous amount of information about where the next candle—or even the next several candles—may go.
 
Understanding the Context: Inside a higher-timeframe candle (4-Hour or daily), there are dozens of smaller candles—1-minute, 5-minute, 15-minute—that form all the micro-structure. Within that lower-timeframe structure, the engulfing pattern represents:
 
Market Maker Buy Model (for bullish engulfing)

So although it's only two candles on a higher timeframe, those two candles often reflect an entire lower-timeframe reversal model.

The key is the closure. Many beginners think a candle will close as an engulfing bar, only for it to close weakly or back inside the prior range. That invalidates the pattern. A proper engulfing bar should close with a strong, decisive body—typically in the upper 50% for bullish setups, or the lower 50% for bearish setups.

Bullish vs. Bearish ExamplesFor a bullish engulfing bar, the second candle runs below the prior low, reverses, and breaks the prior high (Outside Candle). For a bearish engulfing bar, it runs above the prior high, reverses, and breaks the prior low. Both reflect a higher-timeframe representation of a lower-timeframe Market Maker Model.
 
» Every setup has a failure rate. «
 
What Most Traders Don’t RealizeEvery setup—Engulfing Bars, Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), Market Maker Models—has a failure rate. I learned this the hard way after blowing dozens of accounts trying to trade every engulfing bar I saw. Two things matter:
  1. Every setup fails sometimes. If you backtest these candles, you'll see some of them lose. Your job is not to find the magical 100%-win-rate setup. It doesn’t exist. You may find these patterns work 60% of the time. Your winners must be managed well enough to pay for the losers.
  2. Location matters. A lot. When I was new, I took every engulfing bar. That was a huge mistake.
    If you're bullish, you want the engulfing bar to form at a swing low, ideally after taking out sell-side liquidity.
    If it forms after taking out buy-side liquidity—at a high—it's often a sign of exhaustion and more likely to fail.
    The reverse is true for bearish setups.
Avoid:
Bullish engulfing bars printed at or after taking out buy-side liquidity.
Bearish engulfing bars printed at or after taking out sell-side liquidity.
 
These filters alone drastically improve your win rate.
 
The $98,000 ExampleLet’s walk through the trade from last week. We printed a large bullish engulfing candle immediately after FOMC. The candle swept sell-side liquidity, reversed, broke the prior high, and closed strongly—exactly what we want at a swing low. We were also inside a daily Fair Value Gap (FVG), adding even more confluence.
 
Bullish Engulfing Bar Setup in the NZDUSD (4-Hour candles). 

My first target was buy-side liquidity above the highs. Since the market was near all-time highs, I was also looking for a move toward the psychological 25,000 level. As soon as the futures market reopened at 6 p.m., I entered with a 20-lot position. My stop was below the weekly open. I was looking for roughly a 1:3 risk-to-reward.
 
On the lower timeframes, the price action continued to confirm the model—bullish FVGs forming on the way up, continuation structure holding. Meanwhile, bearish engulfing candles printed at swing lows failed, exactly like we want to see.
 
I showed the live account login on the video: real balance, real fills, floating around $93,000 at one point. But the dollar amount doesn’t matter. If your account is small, making $200 or $400 using the same rules is identical—it’s just a matter of position size. Years ago, I was risking $500–$1,000. As my net worth grew, I increased my risk proportionally. Eventually, price hit my target and I closed the trade for roughly $98,000.
 
Final ThoughtsEngulfing bars are easy to spot—but only powerful when combined with
 
    Proper context
    Liquidity understanding
    Market structure
    Higher-timeframe narrative
    Disciplined trade management
 
Your homework is to backtest and forward-test these exact setups: where the engulfing bar forms, where the liquidity sits, where your stop should go, and how to trail it as price moves in your favor. Scaling in, adjusting stops, and managing the trade all revolve around that one pattern.

With this engulfing bar strategy and the rules I just shared, you now have everything you need to start identifying high-probability opportunities. Remember: profitable trading isn’t about talent or luck—it’s about discipline, patience, and following your rules every single time.

Reference:
 
 
See also:

Thursday, March 9, 2023

Trading Inside or Outside the Daily and Weekly Range | Stacey Burke

When a market opens outside of the previous day's range and then auctions around the open, one's first impression is that there is no directional conviction present. In reality, the mere fact that the opening is beyond the previous day's range suggests that new other time frame activity has caused price to seek a higher or lower level. Given that the market has opened out of balance, there is a greater chance that directional conviction will develop than if the market had opened and auctioned within the range. An Open-Auction outside of range has the potential to be a big day, while an Open-Auction within value usually lacks conviction.
 
There are only three things price can do:
1. Breakout from a Range and Trend.
2. Breakout from a Range and Reverse.
3. Trading Range between Highs and Lows.

[...] In the large majority of cases, activity during any given day has direct and measurable implications on the following day. It is only on the relatively rare occasion when a market moves extremely out of balance that there is no correlation between two consecutive days. Understanding these implications enables a trader to more successfully visualize developing market activity.

The salient concept here is market balance. The relationship of the open to the previous day's value area and range gives valuable clues to the market's state of balance and what kind of risk/opportunity relationship to expect on a given trading day. In short, the greatest risk and opportunity arise when a market opens outside of the previous day's range. This indicates that the market is out of balance.

When a market opens out of balance, the potential for a dynamic move in either direction is high. Conversely, a market that opens and is accepted (auctions for at least one hour) within the previous day's value area embodies lower risk, but also less opportunity. The acceptance of price within the previous day's value area indicates balance, and therefore reduces the potential for a dynamic move.

Quoted from:
 
[The Value Area is a range where approximately 70% of the prior days volume traded. 
The range is derived from one standard deviation on either side of the mean which is roughly 70%.]
 
 
See also:

Sunday, February 19, 2023

Point & Line | Charles Drummond

And, with succinct regularity, it became obvious that all of the input for several days, weeks and months gave birth to each day's high/low/close in a constant manner and this expression when analyzed, signaled the story in relation to its past history - the mathematical dot, and the movement of prices around it.  
 
 
S&P 500 (weekly candles; upper left), S&P 500 (daily candles; upper right), 
S&P 500 (4-hour candles; lower left), S&P 500 (1-hour candles; lower left).
 
Gracious me, there were constants all over the place:
  • prices each day moved a maximum of "x" mm away from the ‘dot' line.
  • prices each day, moved a maximum of "x" cents up or down from the dot itself.
  • prices eventually stop moving above the main line in an up market into an area or channel just under the line, and in an up moving market, prices are topping.
  • the dots started to move closer and closer together in an upmarket and the market was topping.
  • dots swung off the main dot line - bells ringing left and right - market is topping.
  • the dot is swinging more, it's falling under or above. The dot didn't swing under or above. And since it didn't, and not doing what it's supposed to do, the opposite is happening.
  • instead of the dot going up exactly in a straight line, or down in a straight line, they are "snaking" very close to each other, horizontally - we're in a congestion.
Often I can tell, two days into a congestion that we're into a congestion.

Quoted from:
Charles Drummond (1979) - How to make Money in the Futures Market ... and lots of it.
 
 
 
See also:
Ted Hearne (2022) - Drummond Geometry: Uncover Hidden Market Structure.
Ted Hearne (2007) - Drummond Geometry: Picking Yearly Highs and Lows in Interbank Forex Trading.  
In: David Keller (2007) - Breakthroughs in Technical Analysis.