In the prior update, we assessed whether the 80-day cycle trough formed early in mid-May or on schedule in early June. Most instruments pointed to a first-week-of-June trough. The key was a decisive test using Hurst’s Future Line of Demarcation (FLD), which now provides the evidence reviewed here.
S&P 500: Analysis continues to use a shortened nominal cycle model due to persistently compressed cycle lengths in US equities, particularly the SPX, while acknowledging the possibility that true Hurst wavelengths still govern. Under this framework, a potential 18-month trough was inferred on March 31 based on proximity to a 20-week trough, and an 80-day trough was projected for mid-May.
S&P 500: Analysis continues to use a shortened nominal cycle model due to persistently compressed cycle lengths in US equities, particularly the SPX, while acknowledging the possibility that true Hurst wavelengths still govern. Under this framework, a potential 18-month trough was inferred on March 31 based on proximity to a 20-week trough, and an 80-day trough was projected for mid-May.
[current average cycle periods in stacked, color-coded boxes at bottom right.]
Nasdaq: Expectation was likewise that the 80-day trough remained ahead unless price held above the FLD. Friday’s clean break below confirmed the trough was still pending and invalidated the early-trough scenario.
The 18-month trough placement remains uncertain, though Sentient Trader identifies it at the end of March; if correct, the structure is bullish, as the market would be in the second 80-day cycle rather than the final one.
Australian ASX: Initial price action—an A-category move above the FLD combined with a nest of lows—suggested the trough had formed early.
Australian ASX: Initial price action—an A-category move above the FLD combined with a nest of lows—suggested the trough had formed early.
German DAX: Break below the FLD confirmed the 80-day trough had not yet formed. A nest of lows suggests it likely formed recently, and price has since moved back above the FLD in an A-category interaction.
Indian NIFTY-50: Price crossed above the 20-day FLD on Friday, confirming the 20-week trough formed earlier in the week and marking the start of a bullish phase.
Gold: Repeated failures at the FLD formed a GH interaction pair, confirming the 80-day trough had not yet formed at that time. It likely completed shortly after, around Thursday, June 11.
While the near-term outlook is upward, an 18-month trough still lies ahead, implying potential future downside pressure.
Bitcoin: 20-week trough formed in the first week of June. FLD behavior showed a GH interaction followed by an A-category breakout, confirming the trough. Although the composite structure is somewhat atypical, the short-term bias remains bullish.
Bitcoin: 20-week trough formed in the first week of June. FLD behavior showed a GH interaction followed by an A-category breakout, confirming the trough. Although the composite structure is somewhat atypical, the short-term bias remains bullish.
