As July approaches, attention turns to NASDAQ’s 12-Day Midyear Rally, a seasonal pattern running from the close of the fourth-to-last trading day of June (Thursday, June 25) through the ninth trading day of July (Tuesday, July 14).
Since 1985, the rally has averaged a 2.5% gain (2.9% median) and finished higher in 32 of 41 years, a 78% success rate. Its strongest performances include gains of 10.4% in 1999, 10.0% in 2000, and 9.6% in 2016, while recent advances reached 4.7% in 2020, 4.1% in 2023, 3.8% in 2024, and 3.3% last year.
The pattern has persisted through bull and bear markets, recessions, and recoveries, likely reflecting quarter-end rebalancing, new-quarter capital inflows, and improving sentiment ahead of earnings season. Although it has failed nine times since 1985, its four-decade record makes it one of NASDAQ’s most durable and reliable seasonal tendencies.
Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 22, 2026) - NASDAQ's Midyear Rally: A Seasonal Opportunity Approaches.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 22, 2026) - NASDAQ's Midyear Rally: A Seasonal Opportunity Approaches.
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