Price Performance vs. Zodiac Signs, Lunar Phase & Mercury Retrograde

S&P 500 (SPX) performance by color-shaded Zodiac Signs (2016–2026),

New Moon, Full Moon and rosa-shaded Mercury Retrograde periods. 

S&P 500 Strategy: Go long during bullish zodiac phases and short during bearish phases; hold through phase end with a 2% stop-loss (1% tighter stops improved results). Starting with $1,000, a 10 year walk-forward case study produced $5,410. The win rate exceeded RSI, Stochastic, and MFI, slightly outperforming Stochastic. Low-win-rate signs (e.g., Gemini at 39%) can be omitted. 

Augmented version: Enter long only when Stochastic (14,1,3) ≤20 during a bullish phase; enter short only when ≥80 during a bearish phase; hold through the full phase. Python backtest: $18,571.79 over two years with a 66.67% win rate. 

Using 10 years of S&P 500, Mercury retrograde periods frequently preceded major pivots, with post-retrograde directional flips.

Upcoming Events (dates and times for New York City):

Jul 29 (Wed), 2026 07:34 EDT — Full Moon (Buck Moon)

Aug 12 (Wed), 2026 12:11 EDT — New Moon

Aug 23 (Sun), 2026 00:19 EDT — enters Virgo (150 deg from 0 deg Aries = vernal equinox)

Aug 27 (Thu), 2026 19:18 EDT — Full Moon (Sturgeon Moon / Lunar Eclipse)

Sep 10 (Thu), 2026 21:12 EDT — New Moon

Sep 22 (Tue), 2026 16:05 EDT — enters Libra (180 deg) (Fall Equinox)

Sep 26 (Sat), 2026 05:49 EDT — Full Moon (Corn / Harvest Moon)
Oct 10 (Sat), 2026 08:51 EDT — New Moon

Oct 22 (Thu), 2026 23:00 EDT — enters Scorpio (210 deg)

Oct 24 (Sat), 2026 03:02 EDT — Mercury Retrograde Begins

Oct 25 (Sun), 2026 15:38 EDT — Full Moon (Hunter's Moon)
Nov 08 (Sun), 2026 23:02 EST — New Moon

Nov 13 (Fri), 2026 11:01 EST — Mercury Direct Resumes

Nov 21 (Sat), 2026 16:00 EST — enters Sagittarius (240 deg)

Nov 24 (Tue), 2026 00:53 EST — Full Moon (Beaver Moon)
Dec 08 (Tue), 2026 15:49 EST — New Moon

Dec 21 (Mon), 2026 10:50 EST — Capricorn (270 deg) (Winter Solstice)

Dec 23 (Wed), 2026 09:28 EST — Full Moon (Cold Moon)

 

Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX; 2016–2026) 

 

Bitcoin (BTCUSD; 2016–2026) 

Gold (XAUUSD; 2016–2026) 

Silver (XAGUSD; 2016–2026)

 

WTI Light Crude Oil (XTIUSD; 2016–2026)

 

Dollar Index (DXY; 2016–2026)

 

Reference:

Astrology Toolkit [SS] TradingView Indicator coded by Steversteves. 

 

Forecast Based on "Moon Synodic + Sun in Virgo" Model | Sergey Tarassov

 

 

 [HERE]

 

See also:
TPR (2024) - 24 Chinese Solar Terms in 2025. Winter Begins Today (立冬 - Lì Dōng).
Tianbao Zhou et al. (2021) - Chinese Stock Indices, Gann Time Theory and Solar Terms.
W.D. Gann (1950s) - How to Divide the Yearly Time Period.

COT: More Downside Ahead for DXY | Tom McClellan

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell last week following coordinated US–Japan intervention in the yen. The drop pushed DXY back below the 100.50 support/resistance level, marking the move above that level as a failed breakout. 

Commercial traders of Dollar Index futures responded this week (per COT report data) by increasing their collective net short position. Looking back at other price tops on this chart, you may notice that when commercials do this—adding shorts after a downturn—there is a lot more downturn yet to come for the DXY.

 

Reference:

Tom McClellan (August 8, 2026) - COT: More Downside Ahead for DXY.

 

There is a dominant 8-year cycle in the movements of the Dollar Index (as well as in gold).

And every other 8-year top tends to be more significant (fatter arrows). 

S&P 500 Update: 80-Day Cycle Peak by Late-July | Christopher Grafton

General outlook: US Dollar Small Down (->80D trough). Gold Down (->20D trough). Oil Up (->20D peak). Copper Up (-> 80D peak). USDJPY Small Down (->80D trough). EURUSD Down (-> 20D trough). SPX E-minis Up (-> 80D peak). Nikkei futures Up (20D trough). Bitcoin Up (-> 20D peak). US Treasury Notes Up (20D trough).

  

S&P 500 E–Minis (ES) heading towards the next nominal 80-day cycle peak around late-July. Up.

 

US Dollar (DXY) close to an 80-day cycle trough. Small Down.

 

DXY is closing in on the next 80-day cycle trough. Price has just been rejected at the 20-day VTL, which likely marks the last 20-day cycle peak. Expecting minor pullback to the 40-day VTL and then further price expansion.

Bitcoin looking for the next 20-day cycle trough. Small Down.

 

In Bitcoin, the new 20-week cycle upswing is broadly driving price higher. We are looking for a soft pullback into the next 20-day cycle trough. 

Reference:
Christopher Grafton (July 13, 2026) - The Macro Brief - 13 July 2026.

See also:

Christopher Grafton (July 6, 2026) - The Macro Brief - 6 July 2026. 

Christopher Grafton (2022) - J.M. Hurst's Valid Trendlines (VTLs).
Christopher Grafton (2022) - J.M. Hurst's Future Lines of Demarcation (FLDs). 

Nicholas D. Savino (June 30, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for July 2026. 

Wayne Whaley (June 29, 2026) - 25-0 S&P 500 Setup for June 26 to July 15. 

David Hickson (June 29, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, Gold, and Bitcoin. 
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 25, 2026) - July Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.

Silver Outlook 2026: 40-Week Cycle Low and $48–$49 Retest | Namzes

The August 2025 projection is pointing to a low forming around now, with the pink area representing the out-of-sample forecast. Concurrently, a 40-week cycle low is due now (see bottom panel), though it could result in a choppy bottom. Given the current dollar strength and its potential for a breakout, any upward move in precious metals might turn out to be a short-lived counter-rally. This setup could lead to new lows around October, where the next 20-week cycle low is scheduled to drop.

On the positive side, seasonality (middle panel) turns favorable next week, as July is historically a bullish month for the metals sector. 

 

Silver, Midterm Year Seasonal Pattern (1973-2024).

 

Silver is currently in an intermediate downtrend, with a likely retest of the $48–$49 former all-time high serving as the final destination.

On the hourly chart, price is basing. I want to see acceptance above 59, which could allow it to retrace toward 63 at the 200-hour moving average, and then eventually up to around 70 near the 200-day moving average. Ultimately, the 73–77 zone remains the golden pocket.

The dollar (DXY) is currently driving the metals complex, meaning a pullback would be highly constructive for precious metals. My main thesis for 2026 is that the dollar should put in an 18-month cycle low in Q1 and start a sharp rally lasting into early fall (see bottom panel). That low formed right on time on January 27, and we are now in the peaking phase of the second 80-day cycle. Following the next 80-day cycle low, I expect a powerful upward move into the fall toward the 105 area.

 

From a structural standpoint, the Wyckoff accumulation pattern suggests a consolidation and retest of the 100 area is ahead, acting as a Last Point of Support (LPS) before the next leg higher. Because persistent dollar strength has been a major headwind for metals, if the USD weakens over the next few weeks, it should trigger a solid counter-rally across the metals sector.

 

Namzes, June 28, 2026.