The August 2025 projection is pointing to a low forming around now, with the pink area representing the out-of-sample forecast. Concurrently, a
40-week cycle low is due now (see bottom panel), though it could result
in a choppy bottom. Given the current dollar strength and its potential
for a breakout, any upward move in precious metals might turn out to be a
short-lived counter-rally. This setup could lead to new lows around
October, where the next 20-week cycle low is scheduled to drop.
On the positive side, seasonality (middle panel) turns favorable next week, as July is historically a bullish month for the metals sector.
Silver, Midterm Year Seasonal Pattern (1973-2024).
Silver is currently in an intermediate downtrend, with a likely retest of the $48–$49 former all-time high serving as the final destination.
On the hourly chart, price is basing. I want to see acceptance above 59, which could allow it to retrace toward 63 at the 200-hour moving average, and then eventually up to around 70 near the 200-day moving average. Ultimately, the 73–77 zone remains the golden pocket.
The dollar (DXY) is
currently driving the metals complex, meaning a pullback would be highly constructive for precious metals. My main thesis for
2026 is that the dollar should put in an 18-month cycle low in Q1 and
start a sharp rally lasting into early fall (see bottom panel). That low
formed right on time on January 27, and we are now in the peaking phase
of the second 80-day cycle. Following the next 80-day cycle low, I
expect a powerful upward move into the fall toward the 105 area.
From a structural standpoint, the Wyckoff accumulation pattern suggests a consolidation and retest of the 100 area is ahead, acting as a Last Point of Support (LPS) before the next leg higher. Because persistent dollar strength has been a major headwind for metals, if the USD weakens over the next few weeks, it should trigger a solid counter-rally across the metals sector.
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