Beginning on April 1 (Wed) (Trading Day 1), the US stock market historically follows two distinct paths. Over the recent 21-year period (solid lines in the chart below), April has been nearly perfect, with gains steadily building from the first trading day to the last and only the occasional and minor blip along the way. April generally finishes positive across major indices.
strong to mid-April, then second-half weakness marking presidential cycle “Weak Spot” onset.
In contrast, Midterm Election years since 1950 (dotted lines) show significantly greater historical strength from April 7 (Tue) (TD 5) until around mid-April, after which the market becomes noticeably weaker in the second half. This is when the "Weak Spot" of the 4-year presidential election cycle has historically begun. This cycle generates a rally in which the DJIA often outperforms, with strength persisting until April 22 (Wed) (TD 15). Thereafter, indices lose momentum and close the month with choppy trading in slight negative territory.
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