On the 4 hour chart, a bearish Break of Structure (BoS) confirms sellers remain in control, so the focus stays on short setups. Just below current price sits a key daily support level (equal lows), which also functions as a weekly external low—making it structurally critical.
» On the daily time frame, a fair value gap (FVG or imbalance) stands out as a critical zone for the coming week.
This gap has not yet been fully mitigated, leaving unfinished business in the market. «
S&P 500 (4 hour candles).
For next week, the primary setup is a rally into a daily Fair value Gap (FVG) that has not yet been mitigated. If price trades into this area—especially into premium above recent highs—the objective is to wait for a lower time frame Change of Character (CHoCH) before entering shorts. No confirmation, no trade.
» Price always moves from liquidity to inefficiency and vice versa, or from internal liquidity to external liquidity and vice versa. «
Longer term, a weekly close below the external low would signal acceptance and a higher timeframe shift. That opens the path toward a large unmitigated weekly imbalance, implying roughly a ~7% downside move (toward the 6,000 region).
This zone has never been retested and represents a magnet for price. Projecting into that imbalance suggests a
potential move of approximately 7% to the downside, bringing the S&P 500 toward just above the 6,000 level. «
S&P 500 (weekly candles).
In short: bearish structure, wait for a retrace into imbalance, confirm weakness, then target continuation lower.
Reference:
[obviously recorded before the March 20 market open.]
See also: