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Sunday, August 17, 2025

The "Iron Law of Oligarchy" and the Delusion of Democracy | Neema Parvini

One of the primary issues with democracy is the "Iron Law of Oligarchy," as described by Robert Michels. Although democracy promises equality and freedom, an elite class inevitably holds power. Whether Professor Peabody, Sally Strawberry, or Pedro Orange is in office, an elite class persists. Even when one elite group is replaced by another, such as a shift from peas to strawberries, the system remains fundamentally unchanged.

Chuan Jianguo (特朗同志), Comrade Build the Nation, a.k.a.

MAGA Traitor (MAGA 叛徒) and Genocide Don (种族灭绝唐).

Michels' "Iron Law of Oligarchy" argues that the egalitarianism democracy promises is an illusion. Elites always emerge; even if the masses overthrow one, they soon create another. James Burnham, in "The Machiavellians," expands on this, asserting that any realistic political analysis must accept elites' inevitable dominance. This elite dominance reflects the Pareto principle, suggesting a natural 80/20 split between elites and society.

» The oligarchy is a layer separated from the people. Sustained by privilege, wealth, speculation, and control of bureaucracy, it lacks a vital bond with the community. The elite directs the people's energy toward a common goal, takes risks alongside them, while the oligarchy does not. The oligarchy lives off the people's resources, manipulates them to maintain its position, and shields itself from any demand for responsibility it always avoids. Thus, the notion that the big fish eats the small one is unjust and mistaken, because the elite is the principle of life for a people, while the oligarchy is the principle of their decay. «

Francisco José Fernández-Cruz Sequera, 2025.

Plato ("The Republic," Book VI) and Aristotle ("Politics," Book IV) warned against direct majority rule, fearing tyranny of the majority and mob rule. In his "Discourses on Livy," Niccolò Machiavelli shared this view, citing the Gracchi brothers, Tiberius and Gaius, in 2nd-century BC Rome. Their land reforms to redistribute wealth from the aristocracy to the poor led to bloodshed and civil war. Machiavelli argued that the Gracchi erred in assuming the poor were less self-interested than the wealthy. By seeking the masses' approval, they fueled hatred between plebeians and the Senate, ultimately destroying the Roman Republic.

Gaetano Mosca and Vilfredo Pareto:

The Intractable Problem of Democracy.

» The heirs began to degenerate from their ancestors, and, abandoning virtuous deeds, thought that princes had nothing to do but surpass others in luxury, lasciviousness, and every other kind of pleasure. Thus, the prince, becoming hated, and fearing because of this hatred, turned to tyranny, and many of those who helped establish it became its enemies.

These, conspiring together, brought about its ruin. And so the cycle continues. «
Discourses on Livy, Book I, Chapter 2, Niccolò Machiavelli, 1531.

Machiavelli described a cyclical pattern where democracy transitions to tyranny. A wise and just ruler, the "prince," leads initially, but his successor often indulges in luxury, resulting in tyranny. An aristocratic class overthrows this tyranny, establishing a new government, but these aristocrats also become corrupt, ushering in anarchy and renewed tyranny. Machiavelli proposed a mixed government—a republic—where monarchy, aristocracy, and democracy are institutionally represented. This form is more stable and enduring than pure democracies or oligarchies, as exemplified by the Spartan Republic, which lasted 800 years compared to shorter cycles elsewhere.

» A hundred men acting uniformly in concert, with a common understanding, will triumph

over a thousand men who are not in accord and can therefore be dealt with one by one. «
Gaetano Mosca, 1896.

Despite this mixed government, challenges persist. In the 18th century, David Hume identified factionalism as a major democratic flaw. He argued that people naturally form factions based on personal interests, often undermining the common good. Even trivial differences, as seen in ancient Greek factions or recent civil wars, can spark factionalism. Modern democracies still face factions driven by religion, politics, or personal rivalries.

» The more the Devil has, the more he wants to have. «

Engraving by Jacques Lagniet, 1657.

James Madison, in his "Federalist Paper No. 10," addressed factions, proposing two solutions: removing their causes or controlling their effects. Eliminating causes requires abolishing liberty, which is impractical and undesirable. Controlling effects is more feasible. Madison argued that large republics dilute factional harm through diverse interests, making domination by one faction harder and offering voters more choices, thus reducing corrupt candidates' influence. However, Madison's vision did not anticipate political parties, now central to modern politics, nor the impact of communication tools like radio, television, and the internet, which amplify factional organization and influence.

» Oligarchy always rests upon force and fraud. «
George Orwell, 1946.

Mancur Olson, in "The Logic of Collective Action," identified another issue: large groups with shared interests struggle to organize due to high costs, while smaller, organized special interest groups effectively influence policy, even against the majority's interests. These groups often secure their goals, disregarding the public’s benefit.

» Sovereign is he who decides on the exception. «
Political Theology, Carl Schmitt, 1922.

For example, candidates Sunny Strawberry and Lucy Lemon, running for office, receive offers from special interest groups like the Peas, Aubergines, and Pears, seeking government funding or tax breaks. To win, Sunny might pledge favors to these groups, even if the broader population gains nothing. If she refuses, the groups may support Lucy, who offers similar deals. This system ensures special interest groups dominate policy, leaving the general population underrepresented.

» You great star! What would your happiness be had you not those for whom you shine! «
Thus Spoke Zarathustra, Friedrich Nietzsche, 1883.

The general public, lacking special interests, struggles to organize and advocate for their agenda. Consequently, their needs are often overlooked in favor of well-resourced lobbies. Madison's republic and modern democracies face significant challenges. Representatives often prioritize electoral success over the common good, and their policies may fail without consequence. These systemic issues pose serious problems for modern democracies, and while solutions are elusive, recognizing and addressing these flaws is crucial.

Reference:

Neema Parvini (2019) - Elite Theory: Gaetano Mosca and Vilfredo Pareto. (video)
Neema Parvini (2018) - The Intractable Problem of Democracy. (video)

Tuesday, February 18, 2025

The Sidonius Apollinaris Syndrome | Markku Siira

If people don't want to witness the growth of certain crisis phenomena, the 21st century is relentlessly sweeping over them. Russian historian Andrei Fursov has coined the term "Sidonius Apollinaris Syndrome" to describe this. He draws inspiration from Sidonius Apollinaris, a Christian bishop, writer, and poet in ancient Rome. A significant collection of letters he wrote to friends and family has survived, offering an essential look at 4th-century history. In one of these letters, Sidonius describes the world as a peaceful and tranquil place. He writes: ”We are living in magnificent times, peace and tranquility reign everywhere; I sit by the pool at my villa, a dragonfly hovers over the water, the world is beautiful”. However, not long after, the Roman Empire collapsed. Fursov points to this historical blindness, noting that it is "partly due to ignorance and partly simply a reluctance to see and understand."

» We are living in magnificent times, peace and tranquility reign everywhere;

I sit by the pool at my villa, a dragonfly hovers over the water, the world is beautiful. «
Gaius Sollius Modestus Sidonius Apollinaris: Aristocrat, Poet, Diplomat, Senator, Prefect of Rome, Consul,

Bishop of Clermont, Torchbearer of Faith, Father of the Church, Saint of the Roman Universal Church; 450 AD.

Today, we live in an era of political and economic stagnation, marked by an increasing number of global conflicts. The situation seems to worsen with every passing day. Fursov argues that we are witnessing the "quantitative accumulation of negative trends," and at some point, "quantity turns into quality." In other words, these trends may reach a tipping point, leading to a dramatic change. Historical events can unfold quickly and unexpectedly. Fursov recalls a friend's grandmother commenting on the collapse of the Soviet Union, saying, "You can’t imagine how fast it happened. Before lunch, all the shops were still open, but by lunchtime, everything had already shut down." This sudden shift demonstrates how societal structures can unravel at a startling pace.

Fursov believes that old structures and institutions are beginning to falter in the modern world. He underscores that such periods of transformation often lead to the renewal or collapse of social and political systems. The European Union, for example, could face collapse due to internal contradictions and external pressures. Could we be witnessing the disintegration of a new "Eurostate" that would dramatically reshape Europe’s political landscape?

In 451 AD, Attila the Hun, leader of the Huns, invaded the Western Roman Empire, specifically Gaul

(modern-day France), marking a significant military campaign against the weakened Roman state.

Similarly, the political polarization within the United States, Trump’s foreign policy stance, and the rise of Russia and China may weaken NATO’s influence in the West. This could result in a series of power-political upheavals, where traditional alliances fall apart, leading to new global power structures.

» Characteristic of dark times in history. «

Fursov advises that in order to survive under harsh conditions, it’s crucial to analyze and understand current trends. But it’s equally important to be physically prepared for scarcity. "The entire 21st century will be filled with battles on all levels," he warns—within the elite, between the elite and the middle class, and between the lower classes and the elite. This kind of turmoil is characteristic of dark times in history. Additionally, the massive influx of migrants contributes to the chaos, creating a situation resembling the Brownian movement. In this environment, Fursov argues, one must be ready to seize opportunities as they arise. Over the next 20-30 years, he believes, people will be united by a common desire to preserve their place in history as bearers of a particular civilization and cultural code. However, this tradition, which is over a thousand years old, is now under threat.

Unfortunately, the current trajectory offers little reason for optimism. Globalization, technological revolution, and the erosion of cultural identity seem to be intensifying. If we fail to stop and assess where we are headed, we risk ending up in a world where the past is forgotten, and the future is severed from its roots.

Quoted from:
Markku Siira (February 3, 2025) - Andrei Fursov ja seuraava suuri kriisi.

了解你的敌人
Know your Enemies.

Sunday, June 7, 2015

“Wealth will not help a pilot to navigate his ship.”

“Out of Oligarchy arises Democracy”

Plato's Republic (Book VIII - 380 B.C.E.):

[...] What manner of government do you term oligarchy?
A government resting on a valuation of property, in which the rich have power and the poor man is deprived of it. [...] Oligarchy is more or less exclusive; and they allow no one whose property falls below the amount fixed to have any share in the government. These changes in the constitution they effect by force of arms, if intimidation has not already done their work.

[...] How does the change from oligarchy into democracy arise?
Democracy comes into being after the poor have conquered their opponents, slaughtering some and banishing some, while to the remainder they give an equal share of freedom and power. [...] That is the nature of democracy, whether the revolution has been effected by arms, or whether fear has caused the opposite party to withdraw. [...] The people, consisting of those who work with their own hands, when assembled, is the largest and most powerful class in a democracy.

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