S&P 500: In previous updates we noted that the 20-week cycle trough likely formed on September 2, consistent with similar lows across global equity markets within a few days of that date. We
discussed the probability that a minor low on September 25
represented the 20-day cycle trough.
S&P 500 (daily bars) from late August to December 2025:
Rebounding from 40-day trough, likely forming a 40- or 80-day peak —possibly at a marginal new high—before turning lower toward 80-day trough in November (Oct 10 + 37.2 CD = Nov 16 (Sun) ±). Market now in bearish phase into early Jan 2026.
Bitcoin formed a 20-week cycle trough on September 1, but its subsequent structure has been bearish. The October 17 low — possibly a 40-day trough — occurred below the 20-day FLD, signaling weakness, and any near-term bounce is likely temporary.
18-month cycle points toward major trough in early 2026.
The larger 18-month cycle points to a major trough in early 2026, keeping Bitcoin structurally soft into the broader decline.
Gold has been moving sharply higher, and is now approaching the peak of this move. In the monthly chart below, the upper panel displays cycles synchronized at peaks. Gold and other commodities often synchronize at peaks, and when markets accelerate sharply—as gold has—troughs are hard to identify, making peak-based analysis the most practical approach.
Gold (monthly bars) from 1998 to 2025:
Now approaching the peak of this move.
Looking back to 1998, the analysis identifies 9-year cycle peaks around 2002, 2011, and 2020. The 2002 peak is somewhat uncertain due to gold’s persistent uptrend, while the 2011 and 2020 peaks are well-defined. Markets with synchronized peaks typically form W-shaped structures rather than M-shapes, consistent with gold’s 2011–2020 behavior. The 54-month cycle peak in 2016 also aligns neatly.
9-year, 54-month, and 18-month cycle peaks.
Since the 2020 9-year peak, 18-month cycle peaks have occurred in early 2022 and late 2023. Accelerating momentum has made these shorter-term peaks harder to pinpoint, creating some uncertainty around the exact timing of the late-2023 peak. Accordingly, the projected next 18-month cycle peak (indicated by a “circle and whiskers”) should be interpreted with caution. The same applies to the 54-month cycle peak, whose projection relies on historical averages and may have stretched over time.
The weekly chart below shows a “nest of highs,” where the 54-month, 18-month, 40-week, and 20-week cycles overlap. This cluster has shifted slightly later than projected, reflecting an expansion of the longer cycles rather than a flaw in the analysis.
Gold (weekly bars) from October 2024 to October 2025.
Potential 54-month peak by mid-October 2025: Gold remains in a strong uptrend, approaching
a major multi-year peak as the 20-week, 54-month, and possibly 9-year cycles converge.
Hurst noted that gold’s cycles generally run longer than stock market cycles, and the current data supports this. If cycles continue to extend, the next 20-week cycle peak should occur roughly 175 days after April, landing in mid-October 2025, suggesting a major 54-month peak may be forming now.
Gold (daily bars) from September to October 20, 2025.
Peak confirmed once price breaks key VTLs and FLDs.
Price targets are derived from FLD interactions, but all upward FLD targets have already been reached. We can, however, use the 9-year FLD for context: in 2015, price tracked this line before breaking above it, an interaction resembling a BC-category event in Hurst’s framework. This suggests the 2015 low may have been a very high-magnitude trough, potentially corresponding to a 36- or 54-year cycle low.
Gold (monthly bars) from 1998 to 2025.
All upward FLD targets have already been reached. On a log scale, the $250→$2,000 (~5×) move
from 2001 to 2011 projects a proportional long-term target from ~$1,000 in 2016 to around $5,000.
Projecting forward on a logarithmic scale, the initial major move from roughly $250 in 2001 to $2,000 in 2011 represented a 5× gain. Applying the same proportional advance from around $1,000 points in December 2015 (36-year or 54-year low) to a long-term target near $5,000.
Reference:
David Hickson (October 20, 2025) - How Far Will Gold Go? - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)
David Hickson (October 20, 2025) - How Far Will Gold Go? - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)
Gold remains in a long-term mean reversion channel. Currently near the upper resistance (~$4,300/oz), gold appears overextended and may revert toward the mean ($2,500–$3,500/oz) before resuming its secular bull trend. The channel’s higher highs and lows reinforce the broader projection toward ~$10,000/oz as inflation, currency debasement, and safe-haven demand sustain the long-term uptrend.
Subu Trade notes gold’s rare 9-week winning streak ending October 17, 2025 — with no prior 10-week runs since records began in 1970. On average, 9-week winning streaks yield a 0% positive outcome beyond the next day and precede average declines of 13% within two months.
Oct 21, 08:25 EDT
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