Hedge Funds Dump Tech, While Retail Piles Into QQQ | Jason Goepfert

Hedge funds sold US tech stocks at the second-most aggressive pace in a decade (largest net selling since 2021), according to Goldman Sachs Prime Book data.

Everybody back in the pool: 21-day sum of daily fund flows in QQQ.

 

This institutional selling coincides with strong retail buying, as rolling 21-day QQQ fund flows hit the third-largest inflow in recent years—even as Nasdaq 100 prices rise. A classic smart money versus retail divergence. May 7 (Thu) is the scheduled ITD #5 peak (± 4 CD) in US stocks.

 

Reference:
Jason Goepfert (May 4, 2026) - Funds are selling while retail is buying.

Goldman Sachs Prime Book, as of April 30: Go with the flow.

The GS Prime Book reflects aggregated activity from Goldman's prime brokerage clients (a large but not complete slice of the hedge fund universe), so it's directional but not exhaustive. Similar insights sometimes come from JPMorgan or Morgan Stanley prime services reports. Goepfert specializes in sentiment indicators, including fund flows, options activity, positioning (e.g., hedge funds via prime broker data like Goldman Sachs), and retail vs. institutional behavior (e.g. Dump Money Confidence vs. Smart Money Confidence). Access requires a subscription, but he often shares highlights on X.

 

As of May 1, Dumb Money Confidence was very optimistic,

while Smart Money Confidence was neutral. 

See also:
Alex Krainer (April 27, 2026) - S&P 500 Dumb Money Confidence Enters Extreme Optimism. [May 3 update HERE] 

Richard D. Wyckoff (1931) - The Wyckoff Method of Trading in Stocks: Accumulation and Distribution Schematics. 

S&P 500 Dumb Money Confidence Enters Extreme Optimism | Alex Krainer

S&P 500 Dump Money Confidence (red line) has risen above 70%, signaling extreme optimism historically linked to consolidations or pullbacks. Meanwhile, the CNN Fear & Greed Index sits at 67 (Greed), and Smart Money Confidence (blue line) stays perfectly neutral at 50% ahead of this week's major news, rates, and earnings.

 

This is not a bearish crash call but a contrarian warning. Dumb Money Confidence above 70% often marks trend exhaustion—leading to sideways trading, 5–10% pullbacks, or simply pauses before quarterly earnings. These sentiment indicators are statistically reliable over decades but can't time exact market tops. 

 

Reference:
Alex Krainer, April 27, 2026.

See also:

Alex Krainer (March 27, 2026) - Classic S&P 500 Smart Money vs Dumb Money Rebound Setup.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 25, 2026) - April Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years. 

Nicholas D. Savino (April 1, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for April 2026.

Classic S&P 500 Smart Money vs Dumb Money Rebound Setup | Alex Krainer

A contrarian signal is flashing for the S&P 500 near 6,477. Smart Money Confidence (blue line) is climbing to 0.6 while Dumb Money Confidence (red line) drops to 0.4. This split occurs amid Extreme Fear, with the CNN Fear & Greed Index at 18, despite broader bearish technicals and geopolitical volatility.

» Smart money confidence is growing while dumb money confidence falls. Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index has hit
Extreme Fear. Yes, the setups across the board look ugly, but chasing shorts here is riskier than remaining patient. «

 

Historically, this exact divergence—rising institutional confidence against falling retail optimism—has preceded S&P 500 rebounds roughly 70% of the time, per SentimenTrader backtests. It suggests the current sell-off may be exhausted, offering a high-probability upside reversal once fear peaks.

Reference:
Alex Krainer, March 26, 2026.

 

March 27, 2026 Update: This level of Extreme Fear (10) has been seen at previous bottoms, including those that preceded bear market rallies in 2022. The shortest bounce before lower lows occurred in 2025. A bullish divergence is now appearing, which validates the thesis. 

See also:
Branimir Vojcic (March 23, 2026) - S&P 500 Outlook: Late March Low, May Peak, October Low.