Smart Money Goes Extreme Long on Bitcoin Futures | Tom McClellan

Bitcoin futures were first included in the weekly COT Report in 2017, and were quiet early on. In most futures, the "commercial" traders are the smart money, but in Bitcoin few traders qualify as producing or using the subject commodity in their trade or business. 

 

 

So the large speculators in the non-commercial category take over the role as the smart money. These traders are net long now in a huge way. You can see in the chart what prior big net long positions have meant afterward for prices.

The red line on the chart shows the net short position of non-commercial traders (large speculators) in CME Bitcoin futures, drawn directly from the CFTC’s weekly Commitments of Traders report. It is calculated by taking the total number of short contracts held by those non-commercial traders and subtracting the total number of long contracts they hold. The resulting figure is positive when the group is net short and negative when it is net long—the deep negative readings visible on the chart therefore indicate an unusually large net-long stance. Spreading positions are reported separately in the COT data and are excluded from this net calculation. The underlying numbers reflect open interest as of each Tuesday and are released by the CFTC the following Friday.

Biggest Nasdaq Futures Short in History

Asset Managers and Hedge Funds have now built the largest Nasdaq Futures short position in history. According to the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders reports—the weekly breakdown of futures open interest by trader category released each Friday based on the prior Tuesday’s data—they stand at a record net short in Nasdaq 100 futures.
 

Positioning has dropped sharply into negative territory through 2026, reaching roughly –$18 billion to –$21 billion when combining the Asset Manager/Institutional and Leveraged Funds categories tracked in the Traders in Financial Futures reports. On the 2020–2026 chart the red positioning line has plunged to its lowest point while the black NDX index line continues to trade near record highs, underscoring a striking divergence after the substantial long positions these same groups held throughout 2025.

COT reports classify large futures traders mainly via the Legacy format into Commercials (hedgers managing business/physical risk), Non-Commercials (large profit-seeking speculators such as hedge funds and CTAs), and Non-Reportables (small traders below thresholds); the Disaggregated version further splits these into Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap Dealers, Managed Money, and Other Reportables for physical commodities, while the Traders in Financial Futures (TFF) report uses Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side), Asset Manager/Institutional (pensions, mutual funds), Leveraged Funds (hedge funds/CTAs), and Other Reportables for financial contracts.

In the context of the MacroCharts NDX chart above, the red line tracks combined net futures positioning of the TFF report’s Asset Manager/Institutional (pensions, mutual funds, insurers) and Leveraged Funds (hedge funds, CTAs) categories—precisely the “Asset Managers & Hedge Funds” group shown—where net position equals longs minus shorts (positive = net long, negative = net short). Extremes, especially a record net short while the black NDX price line sits near highs, are often read as crowded positioning that can act as a contrarian signal, raising the odds of short-covering rallies if the shorts are forced to unwind.

Margin Debt Hits Record Then Drops: Classic Late-Cycle Sign | Branimir Vojcic

Latest FINRA data published in mid-August show that US margin debt fell to $1.42T in July 2026 after reaching a record $1.50T in June, marking the first decline following a sustained period of increases.

The chart tracks US margin debt versus the S&P 500 from 1997–2026, highlighting historical peaks in leverage that preceded S&P 500 tops by 0–4 months (median around 3 months). That places September–October toward the later end of the historical window for a S&P 500 decline.

BofA Bull & Bear Indicator Hits 9.7—Extreme Greed Signals Sell

On August 5 (Wed), BofA's Hartnett Bull & Bear Indicator hit 9.7, up from 9.4 and its highest level since 2021—a strong contrarian sell signal for risk assets (banks, industrials, semis/tech). 

 

The indicator aggregates positioning (hedge funds and long-only managers), equity/bond flows, global equity breadth, and tight credit spreads. Historically, readings over 8 have preceded modest average equity declines of 2-3% over 1-3 months (around 60% hit rate), with occasional larger drawdowns, prompting BofA to recommend rotating toward defensives (stable, less cyclical sectors like consumer staples and often utilities/healthcare).

 

See also:

Namzes (August 8, 2026) - All Eyes on OpEx: Volatility Ready to Break Out.

TPR (August 6, 2026) - S&P 500 Hits New ATH as Smart Money Starts Bailing.

 

Goldman Sachs' Panic Index—a 2-year rolling percentile of equity-volatility metrics (VIX, skew, ATM IV, term structure)—collapsed from the 90th to 0th percentile in one week, reaching 1.03 in the 2024–26 chart. The plunge signals near-total exhaustion of downside-protection demand after early-2026 fear spikes, with options flows now call-heavy and rising volumes pointing to upside chasing rather than hedging. Yet extreme complacency has historically preceded both sustained rallies and abrupt volatility. Translation: There is no fear. 

Only the dotcom boom pushed US valuations higher.

 

There is a notable negative divergence between the NAAIM Index and the SPX,

similar to February 2025, which preceded a significant decline in the SPX.

Hedge Funds Dump Tech, While Retail Piles Into QQQ | Jason Goepfert

Hedge funds sold US tech stocks at the second-most aggressive pace in a decade (largest net selling since 2021), according to Goldman Sachs Prime Book data.

Everybody back in the pool: 21-day sum of daily fund flows in QQQ.

 

This institutional selling coincides with strong retail buying, as rolling 21-day QQQ fund flows hit the third-largest inflow in recent years—even as Nasdaq 100 prices rise. A classic smart money versus retail divergence. May 7 (Thu) is the scheduled ITD #5 peak (± 4 CD) in US stocks.

 

Reference:
Jason Goepfert (May 4, 2026) - Funds are selling while retail is buying.

Goldman Sachs Prime Book, as of April 30: Go with the flow.

The GS Prime Book reflects aggregated activity from Goldman's prime brokerage clients (a large but not complete slice of the hedge fund universe), so it's directional but not exhaustive. Similar insights sometimes come from JPMorgan or Morgan Stanley prime services reports. Goepfert specializes in sentiment indicators, including fund flows, options activity, positioning (e.g., hedge funds via prime broker data like Goldman Sachs), and retail vs. institutional behavior (e.g. Dump Money Confidence vs. Smart Money Confidence). Access requires a subscription, but he often shares highlights on X.

 

As of May 1, Dumb Money Confidence was very optimistic,

while Smart Money Confidence was neutral. 

See also:
Alex Krainer (April 27, 2026) - S&P 500 Dumb Money Confidence Enters Extreme Optimism. [May 3 update HERE] 

Richard D. Wyckoff (1931) - The Wyckoff Method of Trading in Stocks: Accumulation and Distribution Schematics.