Classic S&P 500 Smart Money vs Dumb Money Rebound Setup | Alex Krainer

A contrarian signal is flashing for the S&P 500 near 6,477. Smart Money Confidence (blue line) is climbing to 0.6 while Dumb Money Confidence (red line) drops to 0.4. This split occurs amid Extreme Fear, with the CNN Fear & Greed Index at 18, despite broader bearish technicals and geopolitical volatility.

» Smart money confidence is growing while dumb money confidence falls. Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index has hit
Extreme Fear. Yes, the setups across the board look ugly, but chasing shorts here is riskier than remaining patient. «

 

Historically, this exact divergence—rising institutional confidence against falling retail optimism—has preceded S&P 500 rebounds roughly 70% of the time, per SentimenTrader backtests. It suggests the current sell-off may be exhausted, offering a high-probability upside reversal once fear peaks.

Reference:
Alex Krainer, March 26, 2026.

 

March 27, 2026 Update: This level of Extreme Fear (10) has been seen at previous bottoms, including those that preceded bear market rallies in 2022. The shortest bounce before lower lows occurred in 2025. A bullish divergence is now appearing, which validates the thesis. 

See also:
Branimir Vojcic (March 23, 2026) - S&P 500 Outlook: Late March Low, May Peak, October Low.

 

 

May God’s Vengeance Rest in Iran's Mighty Hands: One Vengeance for All

 One Vengeance for All.

 

 As the US flees Iraq like a thief in the night, 
a twenty-three-year occupation is over.

 

May God's vengeance for the children of Gaza, the victims of 

Epstein Island, and the Minab school rest in Iran’s mighty hands.

 

April Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

Over the past 21 years (solid lines in the chart below), April has exhibited a pattern of steady gains starting around April 7 (Tue)(Trading Day 5) and continuing through the end of the month, with only minor fluctuations along the way. Overall, it has generally finished positive across the board.

 

Midterm election years since 1950 (dashed lines) show strength from April 7 (Tue) through mid-April only, followed by choppy trading that typically ends the month flat or in negative territory.

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 25, 2026) - April Weaker in Midterm Election Years.

 

S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern, 1949-2024.

  

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices. 

Nicholas D. Savino (April 1, 2026) - April 2026 S&P 500 Forecast.

"No Longer an Eye for an Eye, but an Eye for a Head, Hand, and Foot" | IRGC

"If Trump hits Iran’s infrastructure, it will no longer be an eye for an eye, but an eye for a head, hand, and foot. America will be paralyzed." Mohsen Rezaee, a former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and top military adviser to  Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, warned that any Trump-led strikes on Iranian infrastructure would trigger asymmetric retaliation, escalating beyond a proportional response. His remarks, aired on Iranian television today, followed the reported US postponement of attacks on Iranian power facilities.

 »  America will be paralyzed. «

 

Rezaee announced on Saturday that the war will continue until the US completely withdraws from the Persian Gulf and West Asia. He further declared that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to all vessels affiliated with the US, I$raHell, NATO, and G7 nations. Iran's blockade targets only those hostile countries, while vessels from China, Russia, Pakistan, India, Spain, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Japan, North Korea, South Africa, Thailand, Oman, Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, Kenya, and dozens of other friendly nations can pass through the strait. However, the strait’s closure to enemy states following the onset of U$raHell's airstrikes against Iran on February 28 has triggered what the International Energy Agency describes as the "largest oil supply crisis on record."

 »  For the war to end, the US must withdraw from the Gulf region. «

 

» There will be no ceasefire this time. The fate Hitler met in the snows
of Russia will await the Americans when they face our determination. «

 

Never stop your enemy from making mistakes.

 
The projected scale of radioactive contamination from the destruction of Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant—as threatened by Trump—is severe. Bushehr, a Russian-built facility remains operational; however, the recent impact of a missile within 350 meters of the reactor compartment, indicates that the destruction is contemplated by U$raHell. A breach of the reactor’s containment would result in a nuclear catastrophe of exceptional scale and hazard.

»  Radioactive dispersion could extend to Oman and, across the Arabian Sea, reach southern India, with 

possible impacts on Sri Lanka and further spread toward Indonesia, Malaysia, and southern Thailand. « 

 
The reactor core contains approximately 72 tons of nuclear fuel, with more than 200 tons of spent fuel stored in adjacent pools. Destruction of the cooling systems would lead to core meltdown and a substantial release of radionuclides, including cesium-137, iodine-131, and strontium-90. While the containment structure is designed to localize part of such a release, prevailing winds would likely carry the radioactive plume southeast—directly toward the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
 

March 21, 2026: Retaliation for U$raHell's strike on Bushehr. Chaos erupts in Arad—home to
Dimona-linked nuclear personnel. Even Israeli sources admit that about 20 buildings were
destroyed, hundreds were killed and injured, and bodies are still buried under the rubble.

 

Epstein's boyfriend was absolutely duped by I$raHell and

his handler, Jared Kushner. Utter intelligence failure by the US.

 

» Israel needs to cease to exist. It is literally the cancer on the planet. «

Scott Ritter, March 22, 2026. 

 

» The world is witnessing an asymmetrical confrontation between two opposing sides, which has displayed the peak

of brutality as well as desperation on one side, and innocence along with heroic resistance on the other side. «
Qasem Soleimani, 2020.

 

» I say frankly to the American statesmen, who are now managing the genocide in Palestine: You will not be spared from this fire. The entire Palestine, from the sea to the river, belongs only to original Palestinians, including Christians, Jews and Muslims. «  

Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, 2023.  

 

In desert conditions, where there is minimal precipitation to wash contaminants from the soil and no significant river systems to transport suspended particles, cesium-137 would accumulate in salt flats and coastal zones with long-term persistence. For the UAE, the consequences would extend beyond economic disruption to potentially existential impacts. Subsequently, radioactive dispersion could extend to Oman and, across the Arabian Sea, reach southern India, with possible impacts on Sri Lanka and further spread toward Indonesia, Malaysia, and southern Thailand.

S&P 500 Outlook: Late March Low, May Peak, October Low | Branimir Vojcic

The S&P 500 cycle composite of the dominant 339, 185, 124, and 79-day cycles forecasts a reversal by late March. This move is expected to manifest as a "dead cat bounce," peaking near 6,500 in late May before a projected decline into October.

 

 

Bill Sarubbi notes that post-OPEX weeks in March are traditionally bearish, projecting a low for the S&P 500 and US stocks between March 26 (Thu) and April 7 (Tue).

 

Sarubbi's S&P 500 cycle composite forecast for 2026 started at a January peak, followed by a choppy decline through June, punctuated by a brief April recovery. After a late-summer bounce, the market hits its annual low in late September/early October. The year concludes with a sharp rally through December, carrying bullish momentum into 2027. 

 

Reference:

Branimir Vojcic (March 22, 2026) - S&P 500 Cycles Update.

Bill Sarubbi (March 20, 2026) - Post-OPEX weeks in March.

 

The best timed trade of 2026.

Gold and Silver: Final Repricing Before Breakout | Dieter Lüscher

Dieter Lüscher of Premium Strategy Partners AG, one of Switzerland’s most recognized wealth managers, has issued a stark and timely warning on gold and silver. Known for managing ultra-high-net-worth portfolios and repeatedly ranked among the best in conservative risk strategies, Lüscher argues that the current price weakness is not what it appears. In his latest interview, he outlines a scenario that suggests the market may be approaching a turning point.

 

Silver’s multi-decade breakout above $50 is the linchpin. Holding this level confirms the long-term bullish thesis.

 

» In Gold the sell-off that started from 5,598 levels is correcting the last parabolic phase of the uptrend. Previous resistance at 4,550 levels becomes the new support. Long-term uptrend is intact. In the short-term we are seeing consolidation and a drop in volatility. A risk off environment in Global Markets can result in a correction in Gold given its liquidity and appreciation over the past couple of months. It can be used as a source of cash. « 

Aksel Kibar, March 21, 2026.

Lüscher’s core message is that the current weakness may be a structurally driven dislocation rather than a reflection of deteriorating fundamentals. If his assessment holds, the present environment could represent a transitional phase before stronger upward momentum resumes, potentially alongside a longer-term shift in global pricing influence.

  

The Quarter-End Dynamic

According to Lüscher, commercial banks and short-position holders continue to carry substantial exposure in the futures and options markets, with a significant expiry window just days away. The incentive structure is straightforward: downward pressure into expiry maximizes the likelihood that these options expire out of the money, allowing institutions to retain premium income. While this pattern has repeated for over a decade, Lüscher suggests the current setup may represent a late-stage iteration rather than a routine cycle.

 

The latest CFTC COT report details an increase of 3,779 gold short contracts by non-commercial traders (hedge funds), representing 377,900 ounces or approximately $1.55 billion in new downside exposure. This positioning coincided with a 72-hour gold price decline from $4,520 to $4,100. Total hedge fund short exposure currently stands at 56,092 contracts (5.61 million ounces), valued at $23 billion. Market structure remains heavily leveraged, with large speculators holding 215,961 long positions against 284,832 commercial short positions. This data suggests price volatility is driven by technical positioning and liquidity pressure rather than fundamental shifts.

A Potential Near-Term Bottom

Lüscher indicates that the market could be nearing a short-term bottom within days. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, he emphasizes that recent price action appears largely technical, driven more by derivatives positioning than by fundamental demand. Once the expiry window closes, he expects underlying demand dynamics to reassert themselves, potentially leading to a sharp reversal.

Shifting Pricing Power Toward Asia

Structural changes in global pricing mechanisms are also accelerating. India is moving toward pricing gold and silver ETFs based on domestic spot benchmarks rather than traditional London references, while China continues to promote yuan-denominated gold pricing in global markets. At the same time, inventory trends highlight divergence: Western exchange stocks have been declining, while Asian market dynamics are becoming increasingly influential.

»  Physical metal carries zero counterparty risk—exactly what investors and nations now demand. Wars
and exploding debt force massive new money printing that only gold and silver can truly absorb. «

 »  Expect a low in Gold at the end of April near $3,600-3,700. «

Bill Sarubbi, March 20, 2026. 

 

Focus on price action, patterns, and cycles. 

The Physical Market Tightens

On the supply side, Lüscher points to increasing fragmentation in silver distribution, with more output moving directly from mines to industrial users, bypassing traditional exchanges. This reflects a broader shift toward physical ownership, where counterparty risk is minimized—an increasingly important consideration amid rising geopolitical and financial uncertainty. Expanding fiscal deficits and monetary pressures further reinforce the role of precious metals as absorbers of excess liquidity.

 

Reference:

Dieter Lüscher (March 20, 2026) - This is why gold is at its bottom now. (DESHALB ist Gold JETZT am Tiefpunkt.) (video)

Crude Oil Long-Term Cycles Signal 2026 and 2028 Peaks Near $225–235

Branimir Vojcic identifies four dominant weekly cycles (103, 144, 181, and 289 weeks) in crude oil futures (CL), projecting major peaks in October 2026 and June 2028, and troughs in July 2027 and October 2029 aligning with Martin Armstrong’s warning of prices surging into 2028 due to geopolitical risks. 

 

The dominant 174 day cycle on the daily CL chart shows a cycle trough at the end of June.

 

 Four dominant weekly cycles indicate CL peaks in October 2026

and June 2028, with troughs expected in July 2027 and October 2029.

 

 

Yearly timing arrays for NY Crude Oil Futures.

Martin Armstrong’s cycle-based forecast for NY crude oil futures shows multiple volatility and panic cycle convergences in 2028 that could drive prices to $200–240 per barrel from current levels around $90. Drawing from his Socrates AI and Economic Confidence Model, which identify 8.6-year global turning points, Armstrong's timing array chart above overlays empirical, long-term, and direction-change cycles to pinpoint heightened risk periods for oil disruptions. 

 

» Wars rarely end on political will alone, and this conflict is constrained by a dense web
of strategic, economic and security pressures that neither side can easily escape. «

Socrates Update: Oil $225 to $235 into 2028.

 

Amid the ongoing US–Israeli war with Iran, which has already reduced regional output by over 6 million barrels per day and spiked prices by 9%, Armstrong’s prediction aligns with analysts’ upward revisions for sustained supply risks.

Reference:
Branimir Vojcic (March 22, 2026) - Crude Oil (CL) Long-Term Cycles.
Martin Armstrong (March 22, 2026) - Yearly Timing Arrays for NY Crude Oil Futures.

S&P 500 – Bearish Structure and 7% Downside Setup | Justin Bennett

On the 4 hour chart, a bearish Break of Structure (BoS) confirms sellers remain in control, so the focus stays on short setups. Just below current price sits a key daily support level (equal lows), which also functions as a weekly external low—making it structurally critical.

 » On the daily time frame, a fair value gap (FVG or imbalance) stands out as a critical zone for the coming week. 

This gap has not yet been fully mitigated, leaving unfinished business in the market. «

S&P 500 (4 hour candles).

For next week, the primary setup is a rally into a daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) that has not yet been mitigated. If price trades into this area—especially into premium above recent highs—the objective is to wait for a lower time frame Change of Character (CHoCH) before entering shorts. No confirmation, no trade.

 » Price always moves from liquidity to inefficiency and vice versa, or from internal liquidity to external liquidity and vice versa. «

Longer term, a weekly close below the external low would signal acceptance and a higher timeframe shift. That opens the path toward a large unmitigated weekly imbalance, implying roughly a ~7% downside move (toward the 6,000 region).

 

» The next logical target is a large unmitigated weekly imbalance left behind by a strong displacement candle. 

This zone has never been retested and represents a magnet for price. Projecting into that imbalance suggests a

potential move of approximately 7% to the downside, bringing the S&P 500 toward just above the 6,000 level. «

S&P 500 (weekly candles).

  

In short: bearish structure, wait for a retrace into imbalance, confirm weakness, then target continuation lower.

 

Reference:

Justin Bennett (March 20, 2026) - S&P 500: This Is Only The Beginning (7% Drop). (video). 

[obviously recorded before the March 20 market open.] 

 

S&P 500 (4-hour candles; March 20 market close): bearish 4-hour FVGs and Premium/Discount levels.

Nasdaq (4-hour candles; March 20 market close): bearish 4-hour FVGs and Premium/Discount levels.

 

 

    

See also:

 JadeCap (2026) - All Five ICT Entry Models Explained. 

orderbloque (2025) - Market Logic Based on Liquidity, Volume, and Inefficiency.

Michael J. Huddleston (2023) - ICT Liquidity - The Financial Market's Zero Sum Game. 

WadeFX (2021) - Market Structure and Powerful Setups.

Richard D. Wyckoff (1931) - Accumulation and Distribution Schematics.

US Stock Indexes Trigger Rare March-December Low Indicator | Jeff Hirsch

Originated by Lucien Hooper, a Forbes columnist and Wall Street analyst in the 1970s, the December Low Indicator is based on the Dow closing below its December closing low in the first quarter of the New Year. DJIA’s December closing low was 47,289.33 on 12/1/2025.

  

See the Historical Analogue 1966 vs. 2026
in @Fiorente2's "The 60-Year Cycle in US Stock Indexes Revisited."

 

The indicator also applies to the S&P 500, which closed below its December closing low of 6,721.43 (set on 12/17/2025). Historically, years when the S&P 500’s December Low Indicator was breached alongside a down January Barometer were weaker years. When the January Barometer was positive and the December Low was crossed, years tended to be stronger — which is the situation we find ourselves in today.

 

When the market has closed below its December closing low in the first quarter of the year, the market has dropped, on average, another 13.5% on the S&P 500 and 10.9% for the DJIA from the trigger point. Now that the December Low Indicator has been triggered on both the DJIA and S&P 500, some caution is in order.

 

Why This March Trigger Is Rare

Of the 36 December Low Indicator triggers on the S&P 500, this is only the fourth to occur in March, and the sixth among the 39 DJIA triggers. We’ve broken out the S&P DLI triggers by month in the accompanying tables above.

 

It’s not surprising that most January and February triggers were accompanied by a down January Barometer. Whereas all four March DLI triggers — including yesterday’s — came in years when the January Barometer was positive.

Here’s how the three trigger months compare historically:

• January triggers (24 occurrences): Average further decline of 12.92%; full year up 14 of 24 times, average gain of 1.30%
• February triggers (8 occurrences): The worst group — average further decline of 17.26%; down 6 of 8 full years, average loss of 8.13%
• March triggers (3 previous occurrences): The mildest — average further decline of 8.12%; one year up, two down, average full-year loss of 3.70%

The historical data suggests March triggers carry less downside risk than those in January or February — a meaningful distinction given today’s trigger.

 

The January Barometer Still Points Higher

When the S&P 500 January Barometer is positive — as it was this year — the full year is up 41 of 46 years (89.1% of the time) for an average gain of 16.95%. The next 11 months are up 87.0% of the time for an average gain of 12.24%.

 

When it’s down, the year is up only 50% of the time with an average loss of 1.75%, and the next 11 months average a paltry 2.07% gain.

 

Bottom Line

While the current situation suggests the market is likely to go lower in the near term, the positive January Barometer and the broader fundamental and macro backdrop remain supportive. When the indexes and your spirits are down and contrary sentiment indicators reach extreme bearish levels — a VIX above 40, Investors Intelligence Bearish % exceeding Bullish % — that’s historically the point at which the market turns higher again. Stay cautious in the near term, but keep the longer-term odds in perspective.

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 13, 2026) - Iran Conflict Triggers a Rare March December Low Indicator.

 

What happens once the SPY closes down four weeks in a row.

 

What happens once the weekly RSI(2) closes at 5 or below. 

See also:

@Fiorente2 (March 16, 2026) - Historical Analogue: 1966 vs. 2026. In: The 60-Year Cycle in US Stock Indexes Revisited.

20-Week Cycle Low in the S&P 500 and US Stock Indexes | Major Low in July

The projected 20-week cycle low arrived today, Thursday, March 19, at 9:35 AM, 118.12 days after the 40-week cycle low on Friday, November 21, 2025, at 10:30—in the expected price zone. 

 

 SPY (daily candles): 20-week cycle from November 21, 2025 into March 17-19, 2026.

[Projection as of February 22, 2026.] 

 

  SPY (daily bars): 20-week cycle from November 21, 2025 into March 19, 2026.

 

The final nominal 5-day cycle low within the nominal 20-week cycle was projected from the S&P futures low at the open on Sunday, March 15 at 5:00 p.m. (EDT) into the nested 20-week cycle low on Thursday, March 19 at 9:35 a.m. All projected times and dates of highs and lows in the thick blue summation lines, also shown in the charts below, are derived from current cycle periods and are—within the cyclic composite model—mathematically precise to eight decimal places. Cycle periods during the most recent 20-week cycle have been exceptionally stable and reliable; however, they may contract or expand by fractional harmonic offsets (IBPs and ITWs in Delta-lingo).

Tomorrow, March 20, 2026, at 10:46 a.m. EDT, Mercury stations direct precisely at the spring equinox as the Sun enters 0° Aries, with the New Moon conjunct Saturn and Neptune in early Aries.  

 

This creates a strong geocosmic reversal zone. Cycle lows or significant momentum shifts are likely in stocks, metals, grains, and interest-rate markets. 

 

Schematic trajectory of the current 40-week cycle from November 21, 2025 into the 18-month cycle low in mid-July (±).

At the same time, March triple witching and options expiration may drive higher volume and support a bullish turn in the US stock market into the next 10-week cycle, with an early April lower high. Lower highs and lower lows are expected into a major low of at least 18-month cycle magnitude by July 2026.

 

The upcoming 10-week cycle (80-day cycle).

 

Reference:

TPR (February 22, 2026) - S&P 500 Hurst Analysis: Projection into Mid-March 20-Week Cycle Low. 

TPR (2025) - Insights into J.M. Hurst's 40-Week Cycle AKA the 9-Month Cycle.

 

The principle of harmonic nesting and the synchronicity of lows:

Hurst Method Nominal Market Cycle Chart by Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters, 1985.

See also:

@Fiorente2 (March 16, 2026) - The 60-Year Cycle in US Stock Indexes Revisited.
TPR (March 16, 2026) - Louise McWhirter’s Forecasting Theory: The US Stock Market Through 2028. 
Larry Williams (February 19, 2026) - 2026 Market Update: Crude, NatGas, Metals, Stocks, Cocoa.

TPR (2012) - The Delta Phenomenon.