Don't Mess with Iran | Seyed Mohammad Marandi

Let's assume that the United States strikes Iran. The United States has bases all across the Persian Gulf. The Iranians will hit out at those bases. And then they will punish those countries that host those bases. What will happen? The price of oil and gas would go through the roof. If they do actually carry out an attack, Iran will respond immediately. Iran has a very powerful missile defense and extremely effective drone capability, and US bases across the region are vulnerable. 

 

The attacks that are taking place in Syria and Iraq show this. But the real reason right now, why the Americans are occupying Iraq and Syria? They say it's to contain Iran and to limit Iran's influence. But in reality, it's about taking away the sovereignty of countries and to strengthen the Israeli regime.

 »If the United States attacks Iran, we will see the demise of the American empire

take place much more rapidly than we're seeing right now.«

Therefore, their critical infrastructure, especially their oil and gas facilities, would be fair game. And that would lead to a global crisis. So that is why I don't think the Americans will actually move in that direction. But if they do, the consequences will be very severe. And the United States will definitely not win in such a conflict. It's more likely that the Americans will strike Iraq and Syria again, and they will claim some sort of victory over terrorists and that sort of nonsense, which they usually say. But it will be like in Yemen. They will have very little impact because the resistance to the US occupation, the illegal occupation in Iraq and Syria, is very well hidden. Their assets are underground. 

 

The Americans escalated in Yemen when the Yemeni armed forces and Saudi Arabia blockaded Israeli ports because of the ongoing genocide. Instead of pushing the Israeli regime to end the genocide, the Americans tried to facilitate the genocide by escalating with Yemen. They launched many missiles, wasted a lot of money, but they were incapable of changing the balance of power. Yemen continues to easily strike ships, and the Americans failed again. They made Ansar Allah or what the West likes to call the Houthis very popular across the region and across the world. And they'll only do the same in Iraq and Syria. 

 

The United States, by pursuing a policy of violence, a policy of hegemony, of imposing its hegemony and occupation, is only making things more difficult for itself. The Iraqi parliament passed a law saying that the Americans must leave, but they won't leave. What do they do instead? They keep the oil money in US bank accounts. And whenever the Iraqi government insists that the US must leave, they start putting pressure on Iraq through withholding their own money. And whenever anyone carries out resistance, they go and bomb Iraqi military bases. That is the arrogance that the United States shows towards the Iraqi people, and that is exactly why the people of Iraq and the people of the region are so hostile towards the United States. 

 

 » Since when has the United States won a war? Has the United States won in Iraq? Has it won in Afghanistan? 

Did it win in Libya or in Syria?  Did it win in the genocide that it supported in Yemen? Did it win in Ukraine? 

The United States is only capable of ruining lives and murdering millions. And they don't care. «

The United States has many bases across Syria. The resistance can kill lots of Americans, but at the moment they don't want to escalate. What they're doing is putting pressure on Americans so that they would end the genocide in Gaza. And they want the Americans to leave their country. The United States occupied one third of Syria, they're selling its oil, and they're stealing Syrian grain. They've sanctioned the Syrian people and they're stealing their oil and grain because they want to make the Syrian people suffer as much as possible in the hope that they will rise up and that the Syrian government would collapse. The brutality of the regimes in Washington and Europe, their terrorists and their military is unbelievable. In Gaza we're seeing their genocide right in front of our eyes. Watching people in Syria suffer because of the Americans stealing their oil and wheat is not so easy to put in a picture or in a small video clip. But it's just as destructive, as inhumane and barbaric. 

 

 38 million people have been displaced by the United States' post-9/11 wars

in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen, Somalia and the Philippines; 4.5 - 4.7 million have been killed.

All of US calculations across West Asia and North Africa are based upon the interests of the Israeli regime. The people across West Asia, North Africa, and now across the whole world, are disgusted about what they see in Gaza. The Americans and the Europeans destroyed their reputation through their unconditional support for the Israeli regime. 

 

Reference:
Seyed Mohammad Marandi (Feb 02, 2024) - US-Iran Showdown. (video)

Syria Warns the US: "Stop the Oil and Gas Robbery! Get Out Immediately!"

The United States tries to overthrow Syrian governments through different proxies like Israel and the Muslim Brotherhood since the 1970ies, and since 2011 through al-Qaeda, Jabhat al-Nusra, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, more radical Jihadi terrorists and militias as well as through substantial US military forces inside of Syria. As a consequence more than half of Syria's population of 23 million is displaced from their homes, 5.5 million fled the country, and estimates of the total number of deaths, in what is framed as 'the Syrian civil war' by the West, vary between 603,064 and about 620,000 as of August 2023. 

 

On September 10, 2023 the Syrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs sent a letter to the Secretary-General of the United Nations Antonio Guterres and the President of the Security Council Ferit Hoxha, demanding that they put an end to aggressive practices and violations of the principles of international law and the provisions of the UN Charter, which are being committed by the United States of America and its military forces that are illegally present on one third of the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic - on more than sixty thousand square kilometers - in the northeast and in the Al-Tanf region in the southeast of the country (yellowish and light green on the map below). 

 

While the United Nations so far does not even recognize the illegal US presence and occupation in Syria as a fact,
the rate of theft was around 100-130 thousand barrels per day and recently reached 150 thousand barrels per
day in addition to 59.9 million cubic meters of natural gas and 413 thousand tons of domestic gas.

The Ministry pointed out that the United States of America and its tools continue to violate sovereignty and plunder the country’s wealth and strategic resources, with the aim of exacerbating the effects of illegal unilateral coercive measures and depriving Syrians of the capabilities of their homeland and increasing their suffering. The Ministry added that the value of the damage caused to the Syrian oil and mineral wealth sector as a result of acts of aggression, looting and sabotage committed by the US forces and their terrorist tools amounted to a total of $ 115.2 billion during the period from 2011 until the end of the first half of the year 2023. The Ministry stated that the latest statistics and estimates of the losses of the oil sector in Syria show that the value of direct losses amounted to $ 27.5 billion, resulting from the following: The theft, waste and burning of extracted oil quantities estimated at 341 million barrels. The rate of theft was around 100-130 thousand barrels per day and recently reached 150 thousand barrels per day in addition to 59.9 million cubic meters of natural gas and 413 thousand tons of domestic gas. The value is $21.4 billion. Vandalism and theft of facilities, resulting in damages amounting to $ 3.2 billion. 

 

Dana Stroul, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East, US-Department of Defense, October 2019:
"The US now owns one third of Syria, all of the hidrocarbons, and the country's food basket. The rest is rubble."

The so-called ‘international coalition’ bombed oil and gas facilities in Syria, with the amount of damage amounting to $2.9 billion. The Ministry continued that the indirect losses amount to $87.7 billion, which represents the value of the lost benefits (from crude oil, natural gas, and domestic gas) as a result of a decrease in production below the planned rates under normal working conditions. Syria demanded that American officials be held accountable for these thefts and that the American administration be forced to compensate for them, end the illegal presence of American forces, and return the lands it occupies, oil and gas fields and other natural resources to the Syrian state to ensure improving the humanitarian and living conditions of the Syrians.

Reference:
SANA (Sep 10, 2023) - Syria: Washington and its terrorist tools continue to plunder Syrian strategic resources.

Map of Syrian Civil War - Syria news and incidents today (live map)
Kevork Almassian (Sep 15, 2023) - Syria's Warning to America: Get Out Immediately and Cease Oil Robbery! (video)

South Front Analysis & Intelligence (2023) - Updates on the Military Situation in Syria.
Wikipedia (2023) - Casualties of the Syrian civil war.

MFA of the People's Republic of China (2023) - US Hegemony and Its Perils.

On the Price of Russian Oil | Igor Sechin

The EU will no longer set prices for Russia’s flagship Urals oil blend, now that Asia is the largest consumer of western-sanctioned Russian crude, the head of the country’s oil major Rosneft, Igor Sechin, said on Monday.

An EU embargo on seaborne exports of crude accompanied by price caps on oil and petroleum products originating from Russia has triggered a reshuffle in global oil supply. In a matter of months, Moscow rerouted most of its oil flows that used to go to Europe, to Asian markets. The country has ramped up its seaborne oil shipments to China, India and Türkiye at the expense of Western nations.

 

Oil exports to India alone jumped 33 times in December, with Russia now the country’s largest supplier, replacing Iraq. About 70% of Urals cargoes loaded last month went to New Delhi, according to Reuters calculations.

“If Russian oil does not enter the European market, then there is no reference price. Reference prices will be formed where oil volumes actually go,” Sechin pointed out, speaking at the India Energy Week forum.

The Russian government is now discussing how to calculate Russia's taxable oil price following the import ban and price caps set by the EU and G7 countries. Currently, for tax purposes, the average price for Urals on the world market is used, in particular in the ports of Augusta (Italy) and Rotterdam (Netherlands). But due to sanctions, Russian oil is practically not supplied there. Sechin also suggested that “futures contracts, futures settlements” should be abandoned at the first stage in order to regulate market indicators. To stress his point, the head of Russia’s oil giant even quoted from the Bible. “As it is written in Ecclesiastes, "What is crooked cannot be made straight. And what is lacking cannot be counted.”

Meanwhile, Asian buyers have ramped up imports of a wide variety of Russian crude oil, including lesser-known Arctic grades. Two other popular blends, ESPO and Sokol, have been trading above the Western price ceiling of $60 a barrel, at $66 and $71 per barrel respectively, as of Tuesday.

 

Quoted from:

RT.com (Feb 07, 2023) - EU no longer dictates price for Russian oil – Rosneft CEO.

 

See also:

Rosneft.com (Feb 06, 2023) - Rosneft Board of Directors. 

Igor Sechin (2018) - Greater Eurasia: Russia’s New Energy Gamble.

 

Youth Bulge Options - A Demographic Theory of War | Gunnar Heinsohn

Today approximately 44 percent of the world’s 7.2 billion people are under 24 years old - and 26 percent are under 14. A staggering 82 percent live in less developed regions of the world – primarily sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. Currently, the global median age is 29.2 years, a sharp contrast to Europe, for example, where the median age is 41. Of the 20 states with the lowest median ages worldwide, 18 are in sub-Saharan Africa. The UN predicts that the median age will rise to 42 years by the century’s end, and with it the world’s population will increase to 10.9 billion people. Developing and least developed countries have the highest fertility rates and many are expected to triple in population by 2100. The populations of Burkina Faso, Malawi, Niger, Mali, Somalia, Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia are predicted to increase by 500%. In these countries demographic pressure is already responsible for food scarcity, water scarcity, malnutrition, and disease. 

The Youth Bulge Theory attempts to explain and to predict social conflict, migration, conquest and war, and was first introduced by the CIA in 1995 (The Demographic Backdrop to Ethnic Conflict: A Geographic Overview). Youth bulge specifically refers to a disproportionate percentage of a state population being between the ages of 15 and 24 years old. But the main point of the Youth Bulge Theory is that an excess in especially young adult male population predictably leads to social unrest, war and terrorism, as the third and fourth sons that find no prestigious positions in their existing societies rationalize their impetus to compete by religion or political ideology. 

In his study Söhne und Weltmacht (Sons and World Power: Terror in the Rise and Fall of Nations; 2003) German genocide expert Gunnar Heinsohn investigated family size in various societies in relation to the frequency of violent conflict since 1500 A.D. He concluded, that the presence of large numbers of young men in nations that have experienced population explosions — all searching for respect, work, sex and meaning — tend to turn into violent countries and become involved in wars. Heinsohn’s demographic materialism is not concerned with the absolute size of populations, but rather with the share of teenagers and young men. If the population under the age of 20 becomes 40% or more compared to the total, society is facing a youth bulge. Serious problems start when families begin to produce three, four or more sons.  Faced with limited resources, the surplus sons' competition for power and prestige does only leave six options: #1 Violent Crime, #2 Civil War, #3 Revolution, #4 Emigration, #5 Genocide, and #6 War of Conquest or Colonization.  
  

This is a man's world:
Somali surplus sons warming up for option #2.

Youth bulge can be seen as one factor among many in explaining social unrest and uprisings in society. But Heinsohn essentially claims that most historical periods of social unrest are lacking external triggers (such as rapid climatic changes or other catastrophic changes of the environment). Even most genocides can be readily explained as a result of a built-up youth bulge, including European colonialism, 20th-century fascism, the rise of Communism during the Cold War, the Arab Spring, and ongoing conflicts such as in Somalia, South Sudan, Central African Republic or in Mali. Since more than a decade Heinsohn keeps warning Western politicians about the too many angry young men outside the Euro-American world today — above all, too many Muslim young men in the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa. He considers them one of the principal threats to the West in the first quarter of the 21st century, and illustrates this also in the recent examples of Afghanistan and Iraq: Since 1950, Iraqi fathers of all ethnic and religious groups have sired, on the average, three to four sons. They produced a youth bulge. Saddam Hussein canalized this youth bulge in the options #4 to #6 (genocide, war of conquest, numerous Iraqis went into exile). Following Saddam's removal from power the competition for positions of power was transformed into a civil war (option #2) that is being driven by a massive wave of sons. It may not be easy to recognize the current violence as a civil war, because the Americans and their allies are fighting on one of the sides. But the fact that this was a civil war would become clear through its continuation once the US at her allies withdraw. The same phenomenon could be seen — according to Heinsohn — in Afghanistan (see video clip HERE) where the enormous surplus of sons could never be absorbed, in spite of the recruitment of large numbers of police and military personnel. War would therefore inevitably continue in one way or another even after the withdrawal of Western troops.