Friday, July 25, 2025

Cosmic Cluster Days | August 2025

Heliocentric Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) and financial markets do not display a consistent polarity or directional bias. The 'noise channel' serves as a signal filter, with the upper and lower limits of the channel being empirically defined. That said, swing directions, along with swing highs and lows also within the 'noise channel,' may correlate with or coincide with short-term market trends and reversals.
 
Cosmic Cluster Days
  |   Composite Line  |  Noise Channel 
  = Full Moon | = New Moon |   = Lunar Declination max North and  = max South立春Solar Terms
 
Cosmic Cluster Days in August 2025:
 Jul 30 (Wed) | Aug 13 (Wed) | Aug 18 (Mon) | Aug 24 (Sun) | Sep 08 (Mon)
  
For previous CCDs, click [HERE]. For background on the author, the concept, and the calculation method, click [HERE].
 
Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Turning Points, click [HERE]. 
Sensitive Degrees of the Sun, click [HERE].
Planet Speed (Retrogradity), click [HERE].   
Planetary Declinations, click [HERE].
Lunation Cycle, click [HERE].  

The
So
Lunar Rhythm in August 2025.
 
Mercury at Inferior Conjunction on Thursday, July 31, 2025 at 19:36 EDT.
Mercury at Greatest Elongation on Tuesday, August 19, 2025 at 5:59 EDT.
Mercury at Perihelion on Wednesday, August 27, 2025 at 08:23 EDT.
Total Lunar Eclipse on Sunday, September 7, 2025 at 14:11 EDT.

89 Seconds to Midnight on the Doomsday Clock | Jeffrey Sachs

There are nine countries known to possess nuclear weapons. Perhaps more do, but nine are confirmed. Most of these countries are in geopolitical or diplomatic conflict with at least one other nuclear power. In the case of the United States and Russia, they are in open conflict—specifically in Ukraine—which is in fact a war between the US and Russia, and an extremely dangerous one. 

The world is sick of the US, Zionism, and I$raHell.


We must understand the global scene clearly in order to avoid terrible, potentially catastrophic mistakes. The US seems unable to accept a world in which it is no longer the sole superpower. But that era is over. The future is multipolar. The sooner Washington accepts this, the safer we will all be.
 
I often refer to the Doomsday Clock created by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists—a US publication founded in 1947 after the US atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. [...] When the clock was first introduced, it was set at 7 minutes to midnight. [...] Today, the clock stands at just 89 seconds to midnight.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described Gaza’s residents as "vicious animals." 
When asked whether he would call for a ceasefire, Rubio replied, "I will not do that."
21st-century Nazism or plain and simple Zionism?
 
The US sees every conflict as a zero-sum game—one side must win, and the other must lose. There is no room for compromise, coexistence, or mutual respect. But the world doesn’t work that way. In our deeply interconnected and nuclear-armed world, we must find ways to cooperate—even with rivals.

The US needs to abandon its imperial mindset and embrace a new paradigm: one based on multipolarity, mutual respect, and the rule of international law. That is the only path to peace—not just in Ukraine or the Middle East, but globally. And I believe China has an important role to play in this transformation.
 
China has consistently advocated for a multipolar world, a peaceful international order, and respect for sovereignty. These are not just slogans; they are the foundation for a workable global system in the 21st century. China’s own development since 1980 has shown that economic progress does not require military aggression. Instead, China has focused on infrastructure, education, trade, technology, and long-term planning.


The Belt and Road Initiative, launched over a decade ago, has helped dozens of countries—especially in the Global South—gain access to much-needed infrastructure. Rather than exporting war, China is exporting railways, highways, ports, and power grids. That is a model the world needs. But unfortunately, the United States sees China’s rise not as a positive development, but as a threat.

Washington policymakers talk about “decoupling,” “containment,” and even “strategic rivalry.” They send warships through the Taiwan Strait and arms to Taipei. They push military alliances in the Pacific and increase military budgets, all in the name of “competition.” But what does that competition really mean? If it’s about innovation, education, clean energy, and development—then fine. Let’s compete to build a better world. But if it’s about military encirclement, economic warfare, and ideological confrontation—then we are heading toward disaster. 

Monday, July 21, 2025

100% Chance of Nuclear War as Early as August │ Martin Armstrong

Six weeks ago, financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong was signaling a major turn toward war. Now, Armstrong says, "The chances of war with a nuclear exchange are at 100%. Plan on it—this is coming."

» The chances of a war involving a nuclear exchange are at 100%. 
Plan for it—this is coming. Starting in August, this whole situation is going to escalate.  «
 
Can the world avoid nuclear war with President Trump’s 50-day deadline given to Russia to make peace in Ukraine? Armstrong says, "You do not threaten your adversary, who is at your same level, publicly. If you want to say something like that, you do it privately in a phone call. Now, what will happen is Putin cannot possibly sign a peace deal. What—are you crazy—to do this in 50 days? We have staff in Germany, and I was told by my staff that a 60-year-old friend was told to report for duty. 
 
»
There is a 100% chance that NATO will trigger a total nuclear war within the next year. «
Martin Armstrong, July 23, 2025.
 
I had a friend who was at the NATO 'Summit on Peace in Ukraine' in Switzerland, and he called me when it was over and said, ‘Holy crap, this has nothing to do with peace anymore. This is all about preparing for war. Everybody should start getting ready for drafts, to start going that way.’ They want war. They are not backing off."

 » They want war. They are not backing off. «
 
Armstrong’s computer, Socrates, is signaling war as early as next month. Armstrong says, "Starting in August, this whole thing is going to be escalating up. Our computer has what we call a ‘Panic Cycle’ within our war cycles for 2026. That is not good. I don’t know what the hell Trump is smoking. My computer has been projecting war, and it is projecting war going into 2026. This is not looking good, and Europe will lose. It is as simple as that."

Saturday, July 19, 2025

"Bull Hook" Toby Crabel Price Pattern in the S&P 500

The Toby Crabel Bull Hook pattern, present on July 18 (Fri), in the S&P 500 Cash Index, implies a potential short-term upward move for trading starting July 21, 2025. 
 
A Bull Hook happens when a bar has a lower range than the previous one, with its opening price
higher than the previous bar’s high and its closing price lower than the previous bar’s close.
 
Price action created the narrowest range of the last 8 days with a lower daily close. The daily bar has a "hook" shape (a bull flag on lower timeframes), hinting at a potential reversal to the upside due to consolidation and a shift in sentiment. The Bull Hook pattern is generally bullish, opening above the previous day's high and closing lower with a narrowing range. It's often followed by upward price moves in the days after. 
 
A recent analysis by Ali Casey provides additional insights. The Bull Hook pattern has limitations, including its better performance in trending or volatile markets, the potential for false signals and losses in some cases, and its reliance on precise execution, which can be influenced by news or macroeconomic events.
 

Friday, July 18, 2025

Simple ICT Day Trading Strategy That Works Every Day │ JadeCap

This trading strategy focuses on entering positions based on significant daily highs and lows, utilizing ICT's "Power of Three" framework—accumulation, manipulation, and distribution. With this approach, I earned $4.5 million and I’m here to show you how simple it can be: 
 
» Do not trade if the market has already hit the target high/low. «
 
The Key is to target historical levels beyond just the last 24 hours and to use the New York midnight open for optimal entry points. By staying committed to the market direction from the previous day and timing your trades around key sessions like New York or London (ICT Kill Zones), you can capture manipulation moves for more favorable risk-to-reward ratios. 
 
» I’m here to show you how simple it can be. « 
 
Now, I'll walk you through the three-step process I use to achieve results every day:

1.) Identify Key LevelsDetermine the previous daily high or low as the target based on bullish or bearish conviction from prior day’s close.
2.) Assess Market Context: Confirm the market is trading below the previous daily high (for bullish trades) or above the previous daily low (for bearish trades) to avoid chasing price.
3.) Apply Power of Three:
Accumulation: Identify a range (e.g., Asian or London session) where orders build up.
Manipulation: Look for a temporary move against the expected direction (e.g., bearish move in a bullish setup) to trap traders.
Distribution: Enter trades as the market moves toward the target high/low, ideally near the midnight open for better risk-to-reward.


Entry and Risk Management
:
  • Enter trades on lower time frames (e.g., hourly) using setups like fair value gaps, order blocks, or liquidity raids that align with the high time frame direction.
  • Place stop losses logically (e.g., at 50% of a Fair Value Gap or below a key level).
  • Exit trades based on time (e.g., end of a 4-hour candle) or when the target is reached, avoiding overnight holds for futures.
Avoid Common Pitfalls:
  • Do not trade if the market has already hit the target high/low.
  • Avoid setups misaligned with the high time frame direction.
  • Trade smaller or not at all if the market has expanded in your direction before entry.
Reference:
 


See
 also:

Thursday, July 17, 2025

ICT Intraday Liquidity & Volatility Trading Playbook │ JadeCap

This strategy focuses on how price reacts to liquidity and volatility during the trading day. Liquidity refers to the areas on a chart where other traders have placed stop-loss orders, usually just above recent highs or just below recent lows. The market often moves into these areas to trigger those stops, and then either reverses sharply or continues strongly in the same direction.

Trade Example - NQ Short (1-H Chart)
 
The goal of this strategy is to spot those liquidity grabs, wait for a clear reaction, and then enter with confidence—either to trade the reversal or the continuation. The method is built for traders who prefer to focus on one trading day at a time, using clear logic, session structure, and precise timing.
 
On this episode of Chart Fanatics we are joined by Kyle Ng (AKA Jadecap). Regarded as ICT's best student and recently achieved a world record payout with Apex. Kyle reveals his complete ICT playbook that allowed him to generate millions from the markets. In this episode you'll learn how to manage open exposure and lock in profits, how to predict the next daily candle and the psychology behind avoiding greed in a trade. Riz Iqbal, May 15, 2025.

Each trade begins with a daily bias: a simple outlook on whether price is likely to move up or down today. Then the trader watches for session liquidity raids (like the Asian or London session highs/lows being taken out), and enters only after confirmation appears through a fair value gap, market structure shift, or divergence between markets. This model works well for intraday trades but can also be used for swing trades when the higher time frame aligns with the setup.

To take a trade using this model, the following must be true:

Clear Daily Bias: Decide if you’re bullish or bearish for the day using the daily chart.
Consider recent highs, lows, inefficiencies, and where the price is likely to go next.
Session Liquidity Zones Marked: These are common stop zones and entry traps:
Previous Day’s High and Low
Asian Session High/Low
London Session High/Low
Wait for a Liquidity Raid: A key session level must be taken out during the New York session — this is your signal
that stop orders have been hit and a potential move is beginning.
Confirmation on Lower Time Frame (15m / 5m). After the liquidity raid, wait for one of these confirmations:
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
Market Structure Shift (MSS)
Turtle Soup (false breakout and reversal)
Breaker Block
Ideal Time Window
Trade setups should form between 9:30 and 11:30 AM EST/EDT.
 
Key Differences Between Internal and External Liquidity.

Target & ExitYour target depends on the setup type. Intraday Targets: Opposite session liquidity, fair value gaps, or  equal highs/
lows. If the trade slows near midday, consider exiting  even before the full target is reached.
Swing Targets: Use higher time frame liquidity zones (daily/weekly highs or lows), imbalances, or major structure. 
Swing trades can be held for multiple days as long as the bias and structure support it. Use time-of-day awareness, price behavior, and your risk profile to decide whether to hold or exit early.

Pros & Cons of the Strategy
This model is designed to deliver high quality, repeatable setups — but like any trading method, there are key things to understand before using it. Note: The cons listed here aren’t disadvantages. They are things to be aware of — important characteristics that require patience, discipline, and proper management to make the model work effectively.
 

Trade Example - NQ Short (15-Min Chart)

Reference:
ooooOoooo
 
If markets continually trend higher, any run on short-term highs should only be seen as short term liquidity being taken. Any retracement lower should be framed as a return to internal range liquidity prior to continuation.This keeps you on the RIGHT side of the market and you stop anticipating major reversals. Never try to pick tops and bottoms. Leave that to the big boys. We only want to ride their coattails. JadeCap's Trading Room, July 16, 2025.
 
Looking for Tuesdays highs on ES. JadeCap's Trading Room, July 17, 2025, 9:03.
 
I stopped adding new concepts and tools and just focused on properly executing what I've already learned. A few lines, context, and ironclad risk management. Stop focusing on the P&L and the size of your trades. If you can trade 1 micro you can trade 10 minis. But you can't do that at scale without a solid PROCESS. JadeCap's Trading Room, July 17, 2025, 14:47

Gold's Bullish Breakout from Symmetrical Triangle Could Target $3,700

 XAU/USD (daily bars), July 17, 2025.
 
 XAU/USD (daily bars), July 17, 2025.
 
XAU/USD - Elliott Wave Analysis: The price action in XAU/USD shows a clear upward impulse forming Wave 3, characterized by a distinct 5-wave pattern. Following this, a triangle correction labeled A-B-C-D-E has developed, taking the form of a Symmetrical Triangle—typical for a fourth wave in Elliott Wave theory. A breakout and daily close above the B-D trendline AND the July 16 high would confirm the pattern and suggest the beginning of Wave 5. Wave 5 is forecasted to target the ~3,700 level, supported by strong impulse potential. However, if the price breaks down from the triangle instead of breaking out upward, this scenario would be invalidated.
 

Trump’s GENIUS Act Sets the Stage for US CBDC | Martin Armstrong

While the world was distracted by the Epstein debacle, legislators introduced the GENUIS Act that would permit the US government to regulate stablecoins. The GENUIS (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act), primarily sponsored by Senator Bill Hagerty (R-Tennessee), permits the government to oversee, regulate, and define the $250 billion stablecoin market.

Now, stablecoins differ from cryptocurrencies as they are pegged to a stable asset such as a fiat currency or commodity. Cryptocurrencies are allegedly allowed to freely operate on the market based on supply and demand. The GENIUS Act will peg stablecoins to the US dollar and require issuers to maintain a 1:1 reserve ratio in short-term treasuries or cash.

»
I just voted NO on the Rule for the GENIUS Act because it does not include a ban on Central Bank Digital Currency and because Speaker Johnson did not allow us to submit amendments to the GENIUS Act. Americans do not want a government-controlled
 
Issuers holding over $10 billion in outstanding stablecoins will be subject to federal regulation under a newly created oversight agency. These issuers will now be deemed financial institutions and required to meet the traditional banking regulations as well. Stablecoins can no longer pay interest or act as an alternative to bonds. Perhaps most notably, issuers must not meet anti-money-laundering (AML) regulations, which are set to provide the government with unlimited access to payments.
 
So essentially, the government is turning the stablecoin into a digital dollar of sorts. The concern here is that this could delve into digitizing all currency and creating a CBDC. The act specifically provides the government with the authority to “block, freeze, and reject specific or impermissible transactions.” “A permitted payment stablecoin issuer shall be treated as a financial institution [and]…shall be subject to all Federal laws applicable to a financial institution located in the United States including…policies and procedures to block, freeze, and reject specific or impermissible transactions that violate Federal or State laws, rules, or regulations…”

»
 In 1971, we left the gold standard. Today, the groundwork is being laid for a cashless society controlled by digital currency.
You won’t control your money. The government will. This would end freedom altogether. «
Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, July 17, 2024.
 
This provision is not intended to protect the world against drug smugglers and thieves. This provision is intended to grant government unlimited control over how people spend stablecoins. The government could have easily frozen the accounts of those who refused the COVID-19 vaccination, for example, and the Biden Administration admittedly weaponized existing financial institutions to spy on Conservative Americans through their payment histories.
 
“Stablecoins are the bait and switch for direct-issued government CBDCs,” Bitcoin Magazine editor Mark Goodwin said, “Stablecoins can be programmed. Exactly like how we fear CBDCs will be programmed. They’re exactly the same tokenized mechanism… They can be taken out of your wallet. Your wallet can be blacklisted. A lot of the things that we fear about CBDCs are totally available within the tool set of Stablecoins.”
 
The GENIUS Act has received bipartisan support. Although Republican Hagerty championed the bill, he had bipartisan co-sponsors, including Senators Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD), Tim Scott (R-SC), and Cynthia Lummis (R-WY).
 
I warned that governments would NEVER allow any cryptocurrency or stablecoin to compete with their own currency. I long warned that government was merely tolerating these alternative currencies in the past as they posed no real threat. But now the government needs the ability to tax everything to support its perpetual spending. Every digital transaction is traceable. Every digital currency is controllable—the ultimate power grab.
 
One of Donald Trump’s main campaign promises was the prevention of CBDC. The headlines are enraged over his failure to release the Epstein files, but the GENUIS Act is a far deeper betrayal of the American people that has the ability to usher in a new monetary system.
 
 
See also: 
 
了解你的敌人
Know your Enemies.
 

Tuesday, July 15, 2025

S&P 500 Rally Returns to Midpoint of Long-Term Channel | Deutsche Bank

The S&P 500 has rallied about 25% in 3 months to hit record highs, which seems impressive. But it is only 2% above the February peak; i.e., over the last 5 months, it is up 5% at an annualized rate. And year-to-date, it is up 6.5%, or 12.5% at an annualized rate. In historical context, these numbers do not stand out.

The S&P 500 has just caught back up to the middle of its post Global Financial Crisis channel, 
and price gain so far this year is in line with the long-run median outside of recessions.
 
The median annual gain for the S&P 500 over the last 100 years is about 11.5%. And if one were to look only at years without recessions, it is 13%; for those with positive returns, the median is a whopping 19.5%. Indeed, the S&P 500 trends upward over time with occasional selloffs, and over the last 15 years—i.e., since the Global Financial Crisis (2007–2009)—it has been in a strong but wide channel rising at an annual rate of 12.5%. The rally has just taken it back to the middle of this channel, where it was at the February peak. 
 
 
  » Volatility is the toll we pay to invest. «
 
Since 1980 the median annual drawdown of the S&P 500 is 11% for all years,
and it's the same for election years (red boxes). 
 
»
US stock market is among the three most overvalued in 100 years. « 
 
 Dow Industrials Four-Year Presidential Cycle 2024-2027, Ned Davis Research, 2024.