Russia Must Help Overthrow Europe's Dangerous Elites │ Sergey Karaganov

Any outcome of the Ukraine conflict framed as a ‘compromise’ would be celebrated in the West as a victory and perceived as a failure by Russia. This must be avoided at all costs.

» Western Europe must be sidelined from global decision-making. It has become the primary threat to itself and the world. 

True peace will only come when Western Europe’s backbone is broken once more, as it was after Russia’s victories over 

Napoleon and Hitler. The current elites must be replaced by a new generation capable of engaging in constructive dialogue. «

Sergey Karaganov, honorary chairman of Russia’s Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, 

dean of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs, and adviser to Vladimir Putin.

First, Russia must openly confront Western Europe’s historical culpability. It’s not the ‘garden’ its elites imagine but a field of fat weeds thriving on the blood of hundreds of millions it has enslaved, murdered, and robbed. Calling Western Europe out for its crimes – from colonialism to warmongering – legitimizes our potential use of nuclear deterrence as a justified response to aggression.

Second, Russia must emphasize the inevitability of nuclear escalation in any conflict between NATO and Russia. This message is essential not only to limit an arms race but also to underscore the futility of stockpiling conventional weapons that will be rendered irrelevant in a nuclear confrontation. NATO’s leaders must understand that they cannot avoid the consequences of their actions.

Third, we must continue advancing on the battlefield, destroying the enemy’s forces with relentless precision. However, it is equally critical to declare that Russia’s patience is finite. For every Russian soldier killed, we must make clear that a thousand Western Europeans will pay the price if their governments persist in waging war against us. The public over there must understand that their elites are preparing to sacrifice them, and nuclear weapons will not discriminate between soldiers and civilians. Western European capitals will be among the first targets of our retaliation.

Fourth, Russia must communicate to the Americans that their continued escalation of the Ukraine conflict will lead to catastrophic consequences. Should they persist, we will cross the nuclear Rubicon, targeting their allies and bases worldwide. Any non-nuclear response will provoke a nuclear strike on American soil. This clarity will force Washington to reconsider its reckless policies.

 2025 Yalta 2.0.

Fifth, we must strengthen our military capabilities while continuing to adjust our nuclear doctrine. If diplomacy fails, we must escalate decisively, demonstrating our readiness to use advanced weapons to defend Russia’s sovereignty and interests. While new technologies such as the Oreshnik missile system enhance our capabilities, they are no substitute for nuclear weapons, which remain the ultimate guarantor of our security.

Finally, Russia must offer the United States a dignified exit from its self-inflicted Ukrainian disaster. We have no desire to humiliate America but are prepared to help it extricate itself from this quagmire, provided it abandons its destructive policies. At the same time, Western Europe must be sidelined from global decision-making. It has become the primary threat to itself and the world.

If America withdraws, Ukraine’s defeat will follow swiftly. Russia will reclaim its rightful territories in the east and south, while a neutral, demilitarized state is established in central and western Ukraine. Those unwilling to live under Russian law will be free to relocate. Peace can only be achieved by removing Western Europe as a destabilizing force and addressing humanity’s broader challenges alongside the global majority.

True peace will only come when Western Europe’s backbone is broken once more, as it was after Russia’s victories over Napoleon and Hitler. The current elites must be replaced by a new generation capable of engaging in constructive dialogue. Only then can Europe rejoin the world as a responsible partner, not a source of perpetual conflict. 

 

The stakes are clear: This is not just a battle for Russia’s future, but for the survival of human civilization as we know it.

Quoted from:
RT (January 27, 2025) - Sergey Karaganov: Russia must help overthrow Western Europe’s dangerous political elites.

 

[ RT’s version of Karaganov's January 21st Profile essay is essentially completely rewritten 

including its title, although RT merely says it "was translated and edited by the RT team." ] 

 

See Karaganov's original version translated here:
Karl Sanchez (January 28, 2025) - Sergey Karaganov: Breaking Europe's Back: What Should Russia's Policy Towards the West Be. 

Do the Jews Control the US Government ? │ The Jerusalem Post

"Do the Jews control the US government?" asks The Jerusalem Post, and just like that, the question they’d rather not have raised lands front and center. Let's not kid ourselves: this isn't about transparency. 

 

 » Anyone who believes ‘The Donald’ will be calling the shots in his
upcoming administration has no idea how our political system works. «

It's about controlling the narrative, gaslighting dissenters, and preemptively dismissing critiques of Israeli influence in Washington. The image of the Israeli and American flags fluttering side by side? It's the perfect metaphor for what is the true nature of the "special relationship" - one where sovereignty takes a backseat to Tel Aviv's agenda.

 

 

» Gaza is a real mess. Clean out the whole thing! «

Warp Speed ZioCon MIGA  Don, January 26, 2025.

The US-Israeli relationship isn’t just cozy, it's symbiotic in a way that leaves America playing servant. From AIPAC's lobby machine to billions in military aid, Washington’s foreign policy isn’t just pro-Israel, it’s Israeli-first and always first. Every war in the Middle East, every veto at the UN, and every blank check to fund apartheid policies in Palestine underscores a system where US interests are sidelined for Tel Aviv's.

 Well, what can I say ... the guy is a NYC real estate shyster, who is very ... transactional.

This isn't a question of "control"—it's a demonstration of how the levers of influence work. Zionism’s grip on Washington is a textbook case of soft power gone unchecked, shaping narratives, wars, and diplomacy in a way that serves one master. 

 

 » Gaza could be a valuable waterfront property. «

 The Trumps, without their MAGA hats, at the Wailing Wall.

But as the world shifts to multipolarity, cracks in the façade are beginning to show. The Global South isn't buying the story anymore, and even within the US, the grip of the Zionist lobby is being questioned louder than ever. The question isn’t just who controls the US government, it's how much longer they'll be able to get away with it. 

The Islander, January 26, 2025.

Mexico's Strategic Position in the Maritime Silk Road of the Americas

While Trump and Washington focus on renaming the Gulf of Mexico, reclaiming the Panama Canal, 'purchasing' Greenland, toppling the governments of Mexico, Venezuela, Bolivia, Cuba, and Nicaragua, and militarizing and sabotaging global trade, Beijing is subtly reshaping the commercial landscape in the Americas. Enter the new Port of Manzanillo, Mexico's mega project on the Pacific, a crucial element in China’s strategic plan for the Maritime Silk Road of the Americas:

Second phase inauguration of the Manzanillo project, November 23, 2024.

 

Mexico is currently building the largest port in Latin America in Manzanillo, a flagship project in President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration that continues the legacy of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (2018-2024) to enhance the country’s infrastructure and establish Mexico as an economic superpower. 

 

 » That's just how they are. «

Situated in Cuyutlán Bay, Colima, the port’s expansion aims not only to increase Mexico’s capacity to handle international trade but also reflects the comprehensive vision of the left-wing government in improving key economic sectors: infrastructure, international trade, and energy. By 2030, with a budget of 63 billion pesos (3.4 billion US dollars), the project will expand the port from 450  to 1,880 hectares, allowing it to handle up to 10 million containers annually and establishing it among the 20 largest ports in the world.

 Mexico's new trade hub on the Pacific, bypassing the Panama Canal.

This expansion is part of a broader strategic initiative to amplify Mexico's global connectivity, which includes the construction of specialized terminals, advanced dredging systems, state-of-the-art cranes, and improvements to the railway and road infrastructure. These upgrades will allow the port to accommodate up to five mega-ships simultaneously and connect seamlessly with interoceanic logistical corridors and commercial routes in Asia, North America, and Latin America. The expansion will not only optimize the movement of goods but will significantly reduce transportation times and improve access for Mexican products in markets across the globe.

 By 2030, Puerto Manzanillo will rank among the 20 largest ports in the world.

Puerto Manzanillo will become a pivotal hub for international trade, facilitating direct links with Asia and bypassing the Panama Canal bottleneck. COSCO Shipping’s direct routes further bolster Manzanillo’s position as a central node in the Asia-Pacific supply chain, making it a strategic partner for Latin American markets.

 

Mexico is on track to become an economic superpower, driven by a growing population, an expanding middle

class, and a robust manufacturing sector, potentially surpassing the US in the second half of the 21st century.

 

This connection strengthens Mexico’s role in the global trade network, promoting exports like automobiles, agricultural goods, and steel, and secures it as a vital link between Latin America and Asia’s manufacturing powerhouse.

 

See also:
Mauricio Morales (Nov 25, 2024) - ¿Por qué México está construyendo el mega puerto más grande de América Latina? (video)

How Markets Move: The Natural Cycle of Range Change │ Larry Williams

Markets typically shift from small ranges to larger trend moves. When the market is in a large trend move, wait for it to settle into smaller ranges before getting involved. This gives more reliable setups when the market trends again. Market tops generally occur when the price closes well off its low, while market bottoms happen when the price closes near its low. Most traders get emotional during these times, buying at tops and selling at bottoms. Once you understand this, it becomes easier to make smarter trades.

Small Ranges Beget Large Ranges. Large Ranges Beget Small Ranges.

Markets move from congestion to creation (expansion), transitioning from small ranges to larger, more defined trend moves. A small range signals buildup, and a large range signals an impending trend. If I see a small net change from open to close, I know a large trend move is likely coming and am prepared to act on it. Here’s an example using the NASDAQ: Notice how volume fluctuates throughout the day: heavy volume in the morning, a dip in the middle, and a surge towards the end. 

"U" shaped intraday: Heavy volume in the morning, a dip in the middle, a surge at the end.

This pattern is consistent across markets. It’s like a freeway: traffic is heavy in the morning, dies down in the middle of the day, and picks up in the afternoon. Understanding this helps day traders identify opportunities in the morning and towards the end of the day, while avoiding the midday lull. Volume drives range, and large ranges happen at the start and end of the day. This is when short-term traders make money. We need volatility and large ranges to profit.

 There are three key cycles in market behavior: 

(1) small range/large range, (2) moving closes within ranges, and (3) closes opposite openings. 

All three cycles work equally well in any timeframe and market.

"Do yourself a big favor: Mark off all the large-range days [in the chart above], and then study the size of the ranges just

prior to explosive up-and-down days. See what I see? We are given ample warning of virtually every large-range day 

by the shrinkage of ranges a few days earlier."

The key takeaway for short-term traders is that not every day offers a high-probability trade. You need to identify days with potential for explosive moves and not expect large profits daily. It’s about finding that opportunity.

As for market tops, they usually occur when prices close near their highs, and bottoms happen when prices close near their lows. Focus on these closing patterns to determine when to buy and sell.

Trend is a function of time. The more time in a trade, the more opportunity for trend.

The most important insight in trading is that trends are the basis of all profits. Without a trend, there are no profits. But what causes trends? Trends are fundamentally a function of time—the more time you hold a trade, the more opportunity for a trend to develop. The challenge with day trading is that trends occur only about 15% of the time. Most of the time, prices are consolidating, making it difficult to catch a big trend move. Limiting yourself to a few hours of trading only targets that small window when trends are likely to occur.

 My Day Trade Secret: HTTC - Hold To The Close.

The day trader dilemma is that they have limited time to catch trends. Holding positions overnight allows you to capture longer trends and larger profits. A small bet with the potential for a big move is the key advantage of holding positions over time. 

 

 » How you know a large trend move is coming. «

 

Many day traders are afraid to hold positions overnight. However, if you do the math, you'll see that most market moves happen between the close of one day and the open of the next. Moves within the day are often smaller and less reliable. For short-term traders, the key to success is recognizing large range days and holding positions to the close. This is how you catch a big move during the day.

 

Reference:
Larry Williams (2022) - Trading Tactics and Indicators I Still Use. (video)

 

 » Hold To The Close. « 

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily bars).

 Narrow Range 4 & 7 Days and Inside Bar Narrow Range 4 & 7 Days.

 

» There are only two ways a short-term high or low is broken. «

NVIDIA (daily bars).

 Narrow Range 4 & 7 Days and Inside Bar Narrow Range 4 & 7 Days.

See also:

Larry Williams (2011) - Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading (2nd edition).

  Larry Williams (1999) - Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading (1st edition).

Larry Williams (2000) - Swing Points as Trend Change Indication.

Larry Williams (1999) - Three Bar Patterns: The Smallest Fractals of Market Structure.

 Toby Crabel (1990) - The Principle of Contraction/Expansion.

 Toby Crabel (1990) - Definition of Price Patterns.

Linda Bradford Raschke (1995) - Capturing Trend Days. 

The Toy2mt Barometer Signals Neutrality for 2025 │ Wayne Whaley

The S&P's performance from November 19 to January 19 has an interesting history of accurately predicting the direction of the S&P over the subsequent 12 months. I refer to this time frame as Toy2mt (Turn of the Year - Two months).  See November 23rd Post. 

 Neutral Toy2mt Signal Performance since 1950 = Average 9.3% Annual Gain.

 

• When Toy2mt is greater than 3%, the following year is 36-2 for an average gain of 16.7%.
• When Toy2mt is negative, the following year is 7-11 for an average loss of 2.6%.
• The 2025 Toy2mt came in at 1.35%.  The above table shows the post-1950 performance, in which Toy2mt came in at 0-3%, which is considered the neutral signal range.

Neutral Toy signal performance is in line with historic norms, as 73.7% of post-1950 Toy years have been positive for an average gain of 9.3%. I have other Toy Barometers with similar forecasting acumen that are still works in progress, which I defer to when Toy2mt is inconclusive.

Wayne Whaley, January 18, 2025.

 

MAG 7 January 2025 Seasonality Charts. 

 

 See also:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (January 17, 2025) - Market Bounce After December Low Breach Encouraging. 

I'm Gonna MAGA You, Baby ! │ Pepe Escobar

It’s the greatest show on earth – unleashing a double bill of New Paradigm and Manifest Destiny on crack. We are the greatest. We will rock you – in every sense. We will crush you. We will take whatever we want, because we can. And if you wanna walk away from the US dollar, we will destroy you. BRICS, we’re coming to get ya. Trump 2.0 – a mix of professional wrestling and MMA played in a giant planetary cage – is in da house, starting next Monday.

 A larger-than-life PsyOp to change the narrative.

Trump 2.0 aims to be in the driving seat of the global financial system, in control of the world’s oil trade and LNG supply, and on strategic media platforms. Trump 2.0 is gearing up to be an extended exercise in the capacity to hurt The Other. Any Other. Hostile takeovers – and blood on the tracks. That’s how we “negotiate.” Under Trump 2.0, global tech infrastructure must run on US software, not just on the profit front, but also on the spy front. AI data chips must be American only. AI data centers must be controlled by America only. “Free trade” and “globalization”? That’s for losers. Welcome to neo-imperial, techno-feudal mercantilism – powered by US tech supremacy.

 

Trump’s National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, has named a few of the targets ahead: Greenland, Canada, assorted cartels, the Arctic, the Gulf of “America,” oil and gas, and rare earth minerals. All in the name of strengthening “national security.” A key plank: total control of the “Western Hemisphere.” Monroe Doctrine 2.0 – actually the Donroe Doctrine. America First, Last, and Always.

Why the Chessboard Needs to Be Rejigged

Well, let’s delve a bit into pesky material imperatives. The Empire of Chaos faces a humongous debt, owed to the usual suspect loan sharks, that may only be—partially—repaid through selected export surpluses. This would imply re-industrialization—a long, costly affair—and securing smooth military supply chains. Where will the resource base come from for this Sisyphean task? Washington simply cannot rely on Chinese exports and rare earths. The chessboard needs to be rejigged—with trade and tech unified under US unilateral, monopoly control.

 

Plan A, so far, was to simultaneously confront Russia and China: the two top BRICS and key vectors of Eurasia integration. China’s strategy, since the start of the millennium, has been to trade resources for infrastructure, developing Global South markets as China itself keeps developing. Russia’s strategy has been to help nations recover their sovereignty; actually helping nations to help themselves on the sustainable development front. Plan A against the concerted geoeconomic and geopolitical strategies of the Russia-China strategic partnership miserably failed. What has been attempted by the ghastly, exiting US administration has generated serial, massive blowbacks.

 

Next best option: Plunder the Chihuahuas.

So, it’s time for Plan B: Looting the allies. They are already dominated Chihuahuas anyway. The exploitation show must go on. And there are plenty of Chihuahuas available to be exploited. Canada has loads of fresh water, plus oil and mining wealth. The Canadian business class, in fact, has always dreamed of deep integration with the Empire of Chaos. Trump 2.0 and his team have been careful not to name names.

 

When it comes to the Arctic as a crucial, evolving battlefield, there may be a vague allusion to the Northwest Passage, but never a mention of what really matters: the Northern Sea Route—the Russian denomination; the Chinese call it the Arctic Silk Road. That’s one of the key connectivity corridors of the future. The Northern Sea Route encompasses at least 15% of the world’s unexplored oil and 30% of the world’s unexplored natural gas. Greenland is smack in the middle of this New Great Game—capable of supplying years of uranium, as much oil as Alaska (bought from Russia in 1867), plus rare earths—not to mention providing useful real estate for missile defense and offense. Washington has been trying to grab Greenland from Denmark since 1946. There’s a deal with Copenhagen in place guaranteeing military control—mostly naval. Now Greenland is being revamped as the ideal US entry point into the Arctic Great Game against Russia.

At the St. Petersburg forum last June, I had the privilege of following an exceptional roundtable on the Northern Sea Route: that’s an integral part of Russia’s 21st-century development project, focused on commercial navigation—“We need more icebreakers!”—and bound to surpass Suez and Gibraltar in the near future. Slightly over 50,000 Greenland residents—which already enjoy autonomy, especially vis-à-vis the EU—would more than accept a full Danish exit; Copenhagen actually abandoned them in 1951. Greenlanders will love to profit from vast US investments. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov went straight to the point: “The first step is to listen to the Greenlanders”—comparing it to how Russia listened to the residents of Crimea, Donbass, and Novorossiya vis-à-vis Kiev.

 The New Great Game and the Northern Sea Route.

What Trump 2.0 actually wants from Greenland is crystal clear: total militarization; privileged access to rare earths; and the commercial exclusion of Russia and Chinese companies. Chinese military expert Yu Chun noted that “soon, the long-desired ‘golden waterway’ of the Arctic Ocean is expected to open, allowing ships to traverse the Pacific Ocean and sail along the northern coasts of North America and Eurasia into the Atlantic Ocean.” As the Northern Sea Route is “a key element of Sino-Russian cooperation,” it’s inevitable that the US’s “strategic vision is to prevent the establishment of a ‘golden waterway’ between China, Russia, and Europe by controlling Greenland.”

Freak Out on the Chihuahua Front

On the wider Chihuahua front, activity is frantic. Assorted Davos/Deep State-linked elites across NATOstan—from Europe to Canada—are in the process of being replaced by new, Trump 2.0-affiliated elites. That’s indissociably linked to the Looting the Allies strategy: the further destruction of the vassal EU economy to strengthen the heart of the Empire. In Germany, the AfD’s Alice Weidel—pragmatic, intellectually capable—offers a quite intriguing perspective. She is stressing, on the record, that Germany needs to restart importing raw materials and cheap natural gas—let’s reopen Nord Stream—from Russia.

That opens the tantalizing possibility that Trump and his factotum Elon Musk fully realize that Germany is worthless to the US as a de-industrialized backwater—even under the overall framework of a hardcore neoliberal asset-stripping offensive. Of course, Trump 2.0 will extract a hefty price for Germans to get a revitalized nation back.

Trump 2.0 at least holds the—dubious—merit of a relatively realistic reading of the chessboard; Russia, India, China—the Primakov triangle—as well as Iran have become too powerful to be looted. So, the next best option is: Plunder the Chihuahuas. The blowing up of Nord Stream, as ordered by the Biden crime family—as detailed by Sy Hersh—was a gleaming starter.

The future of NATO in the Great America project is now up for grabs. Gotta pay up—or else: the contribution of each member nation should go up to 5% of GDP instead of the current 2%. Talk about a 150% price hike. Incidentally, Trump so far has not even muttered the nonsensical expression “Indo-Pacific.” For all practical purposes, Trump is telling NATO to take a hike. In the event of a double NATOstan annexation of Canada and Greenland, the US may even be able to match Russia’s resource base. Arguably, that’s the key rationale for unleashing this New Great Game. Forget “multipolarity.” BRICS, take note.

 

I’m gonna MAGA you, baby! 

Andrew Napolitano talks with Pepe Escobar, January 15, 2025.

The most intriguing side plot is, of course, Elon Musk. Trump badly needs Musk’s massive social media/propaganda digital megaphone. Simultaneously, on the Chihuahua front, the platinum sidekick wants to profit from a Europe capable of assessing enough energy, raw materials, and loads of consumers with solid purchasing power. The facts on the ground already spell out the “rules-based international order” being replaced in a flash by a no-rules international disorder. After all, international law has already been abolished by the Empire of Chaos itself (that’s bipartisan)—when it comes to illegal, unilateral sanctions, theft of financial assets, or legitimization of genocide and head-chopping “moderate rebels.”

Trump 2.0 will be nothing but enforcing a de facto phenomenon: a post-historical disorder. End of History—that was always for suckers. All of this incendiary chain of events is on a roll essentially because of one single reason: the Empire of Chaos lost the proxy war in Ukraine. What remains to be discussed is the modality of the surrender. So, it’s no wonder Trump had to come up with a seductive, but still fraught-with-danger, larger-than-life PsyOp to imperatively change the narrative.

Quoted from:
Pepe Escobar (January 14, 2025) - I'm Gonna MAGA You, Baby!

 

See also:
Simon Hunt (January 12, 2025) - Markets Amidst Trump 2.0: Geopolitics & Geoeconomics in 2025.
Lu QiYuan (December 8, 2024) - Scott Bessent's Covert MAGA Strategy for Trump 2.0.

 Dmitry Skvortsov (November 24, 2024) - Trump's Plan to Ruin China.

Hurst Cycles Forecast Bearish Q1 for S&P 500 & NASDAQ │ David Hickson

The first quarter of 2025 is expected to be bearish for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. Following the 40-day cycle trough observed in early December, the S&P 500 is expected to form a 80-day cycle trough around mid-January, i.e., this week.

 

 

 S&P 500 down into late March or early April.

A significant cycle trough in the first few months of 2025 is anticipated, likely around March or April. The price action as it exits the 80-day cycle trough will be crucial in determining the strength of the recovery or the continuation of the bearish trend.

 NASDAQ down into May.

The NASDAQ's 20-week cycle trough was formed in mid-December, and a significant 18-month cycle trough is expected around May 2025. A weak bounce from this week's low would indicate further bearish movement into May.

Reference:
David Hickson (January 13, 2025) - A Bearish Start to 2025 - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)

2025 Gold Forecast │ Namzes

Big picture: November 3, 2022, marked the 8-year cycle low in Gold, and we are currently in a secular bull market. The overall trend, which shows an upward bias from Q2 2025 onwards, is illustrated below:

The positioning of the current 4-year cycle low is challenging to determine, as the cycle is irregular and not as robust as in other markets. The average 4-year cycle, shown below, suggests a low occurring in spring 2025. However, as seen, this cycle exhibits significant variation. The best estimate is that, if it does occur, it will likely be in March 2025, featuring a rapid sell-off and recovery rather than a prolonged bottoming process:

The 18-month cycle also exhibits some variation, with two potential paths shown. The last low occurred in October 2023, meaning that either November 14 marked the low, OR the low is still ahead, potentially in spring 2025, which could coincide with the 4-year cycle low:

The shorter, tradable composite cycle is shown in red. The bottom panel displays statistics for the individual cycles. The 40-day cycle is expected to peak and then move downward into the January open, followed by an upward movement into the early February 20-week cycle peak. This period also marks the seasonal peak, when the topping window opens:

Seasonality is shown below with high-confidence zones. The topping window opens in early February, with the seasonal low occurring in the third week of March. Additionally, there is a high-confidence zone from July 26 to September 2, during which the market has risen in 85% of the past 26 years:

The most similar years (though based on a small sample size) experienced some consolidation followed by a move higher, with an 87% correlation:

Conclusion: Gold is in a secular bull market, and the most likely short-term path is as follows: consolidation for a week leading into the January 17 OpEx, followed by an upward move into early February. After that, the market is expected to decline into the third week of March. The 2,400-2,450 range provides strong technical support for any correction. From there, the market is likely to move higher, with the July 26 to September 2 period being a high-confidence zone. The next upside target is 3,000+ in the second half of 2025, with 2006 serving as the best proxy year (shown in purple):

 Consolidation into January 17 OpEx – up into early February – decline into third week of March

(2,400-2,450 strong support) – up into July 26 to September 2 top (3,000+ target) – steep decline in Q4 – up into mid 2026.

Reference:
Namzes, January 11, 2025.

 

See also: 

 Namzes (December 27, 2024) - 2025 Outlook on S&P 500, Cryptos, Currencies, Metals & Energy. 

Markets Amidst Trump 2.0: Geopolitics & Geoeconomics in 2025 | Simon Hunt

In recent years, I have analyzed several long-term cycles, including demographic, economic, weather, war, inflation, and interest rate cycles. To my surprise, they all appear to converge around 2028. While geopolitical tensions will likely remain tense in 2025, the ultimate crisis may emerge as these cycles align.

 Ron William, Development Director of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles (FSC), interviewed

Simon Hunt, CEO of Simon Hunt Strategic Services, on January 11, 2025.

Continuing US Economic Decline and Stock Market Crash by September 2025

The US economy is weaker than portrayed. Employment data, revised down for the first quarter, shows a likely weak second quarter, with retail sales, adjusted for inflation, declining last year. Big US companies will be laying off thousands. The Biden administration has inflated economic indicators, but the reality is far bleaker.

 S&P 500 Bull-Trap Reversal, Rotation Fragility, and Cycle Risk in 2025.

I anticipate a sharp stock market drop by September 2025, with the S&P 500, the NASDAQ and tech stocks (Mag 7) falling by 20% to 40%, respectively. By Q4, Trump’s policies—tax cuts, deregulation—will take effect, and governments will likely respond with fiscal and monetary stimulus. Over the next few years, equity, base metal, and precious metal markets may surge. This will be highly inflationary, possibly mirroring the 1980s, when US CPI surpassed 13% and global inflation hit 15%. The key question will be the impact on long-term bond yields. Bond vigilantes will likely push 10-year US Treasury yields into double digits, with similar trends globally (excluding China), leading to a crash in asset prices, especially in an already highly leveraged system with a 360% debt-to-GDP ratio. 

 

The primary drivers of inflation are excess liquidity and rising wages, along with a trend where a larger share of wages is being allocated to capital on corporate balance sheets. I expect US CPI to remain elevated, with the official CPI possibly reaching 13%, mirroring 1980 levels. However, John Williams of Shadow Government Stats estimates the real CPI averaged 10.8% last year. This persistent inflation will push long-term interest rates into double digits, likely triggering a crash in the debt-laden global system. Comparing current inflation to the 1970s, we see a pattern of volatility, with asset prices potentially deflating before structural inflation resurges, driving CPI to double digits.

Empire Cycle, Risks of War, BRICS, and the Emergence of a Multipolar World Order

Today we have two major powers—one established (US), the other emerging (China)—each with conflicting goals. One seeks to maintain global dominance, while the other rejects that vision. The only resolution could be through a significant crisis, possibly war. Afterward, we might see the emergence of a multipolar world, but this will likely take place in the early to mid-2030s, once we’ve gone through the crisis. The empire cycle, as outlined by voices like Ray Dalio, typically culminates in revolutions, internal conflicts, and proxy wars, followed by political and debt restructuring before a new world order emerges.
 

 Geopolitical tensions will continue to simmer through 2027,
with open conflict likely not breaking out until 2028.

The current geopolitical and geoeconomic picture is shaped by several major cycles: Since 1991, and potentially as far back as 1946, the US has sought to weaken Russia in order to control its vast natural resources. Simultaneously, China has emerged as America’s primary competitor, and to maintain hegemony, the US must constrain its rise. A related theme is Washington’s growing concern over the BRICS nations, which, if they mature into a serious rival, could undermine US dominance, particularly over the dollar. The war in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East fit into this broader geopolitical strategy. Israel has long served as America’s foothold in the Persian Gulf, and a key aim of Trump’s foreign policy could be to disrupt the China-Russia alliance while isolating Iran, given their strong ties. The US has already made progress in Brazil, where key ministries are anti-BRICS and pro-Washington, with President Lula aware of the risks of opposing the US. Despite potential challenges for BRICS under Brazil’s leadership, the group’s recent expansion with Indonesia’s full membership is a significant shift, especially in South Asia.

Geopolitical concerns are at the forefront for many investors, and they’re my primary worry. It’s not a matter of if war will happen, but when. Geopolitical tensions will continue to simmer through 2027, with open conflict likely not breaking out until 2028, though this is my best-case scenario. In the worst-case scenario, Israel, after defeating Hamas and Hezbollah, may decide to attack Iran. In response, Iran would retaliate with overwhelming force, using advanced missile technology, including hypersonic missiles, capable of bypassing Israeli and US defense systems. While the risk of war is high before 2028, I believe open conflict will likely occur no sooner than then.
 

Weather Cycles, Severe Drought in the US in 2025, and Global Food Supply Shortages by 2026

However, one cycle that remains largely unaddressed but could disrupt Trump’s domestic agenda is the weather cycle. This cycle, particularly the Gleissberg cycle, a 90-year pattern, is aligning with US drought cycles for the first time since the 1930s. This could mirror the impact of the Dust Bowl. As the cycle begins to take effect this year, reports from areas like Pennsylvania indicate food shortages—beef and chicken in particular—which could drive soaring food prices by 2026. This will pose significant challenges for Trump’s efforts to regenerate America, especially considering the global nature of this issue, as the US is a major food exporter.

Shawn Hackett on weather cycles, their relationship to price action in agricultural commodities,
and the potential for a major drought in the US in 2025 based on the 89-year Gleissberg cycle. (see also [HERE])

The weather disruptions are linked to a shift in the Atlantic Ocean’s cycle, transitioning from a 40-year warming phase to a cooling phase starting in 2025. Historical parallels show that this cooling period could cause extreme weather, including shorter growing seasons and disrupted food production. Additionally, the Sun’s quiet phase, along with the 60-year Yoshimura planetary temperature cycle and the 90-year Gleissberg cycle, will likely exacerbate these effects, creating a pattern of climate instability not seen since the early 1600s. This emerging cycle, largely overlooked, could lead to global food supply shortages and soaring food prices, impacting markets, debt, and interest rates.

Two-Year Commodity Boom: Rising Food, Crude Oil, Copper, and Gold Prices

Food prices are expected to rise sharply, and by 2026, oil prices are likely to increase despite efforts by President Trump. Disruptions, such as sanctions on Iran, could lead to China sourcing oil from Russia instead. By 2028, oil prices could surpass $150. Once inflation cycles begin, they often become self-perpetuating as people hedge by buying in advance and companies stockpile goods. For example, copper prices could double from $7,000 to $14,000 by late 2027, reflecting the inflationary dynamics at play.

 

While commodities are underperforming equities, they are relatively cheap and primed for a rebound, especially with inflationary pressures. Precious metals have already shown strength, and sectors like energy and food may follow, particularly if weather disruptions occur. Although we won't enter a supercycle until the early 2030s, we could see a two-year commodity boom. This period will set the stage for a return to 4% global GDP growth, marking the true supercycle.

 Although we won't enter a Commodity Supercycle until the early 2030s, 

we could see a two-year commodity boom.

Gold had a remarkable 40% rise last year, signaling inflation concerns and currency instability. Central banks are diversifying into tangible assets like gold, and both China and Russia hold significant, underreported gold reserves. If China’s currency faces pressure, it could announce gold backing, possibly from its 25,000 tons of gold. Russia holds about 12,000 tons. The BRICS nations may also introduce a gold-backed currency in the next five years, further driving gold's upward trajectory over the next decade.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Decline to 0.90 by the End of 2025, and as Low as 0.65 by 2028

The dollar, often referred to as the "king of currencies," is expected to peak around 110 on the dollar index in the coming months before beginning a decline. By the end of 2025, it may hover closer to 0.90, and by 2026, closer to 0.80. By 2028, the dollar could fall as low as 0.65, marking a substantial decline ahead. Policies such as trade tariffs could impact the dollar, with some close to the Trump camp suggesting he may favor a weaker dollar to boost exports. However, the broader trend is clear: increasing trade among BRICS nations, excluding the dollar, will reduce demand for the currency.

China's Economic Recovery in 2025 and Bull Market into 2028

Despite recent challenges, the Chinese equity market has surged, suggesting potential for an inflection point. A key shift in China is the transition to collective decision-making, moving away from President Xi’s sole influence, likely driving fiscal and monetary expansion. I expect a sharp recovery in China’s economy in the latter half of 2025, boosting global performance. The Shanghai Composite will likely mirror global market trends—approaching a peak, followed by a correction, and then a bull market into 2028. Despite negative narratives, China’s consumer spending is up 10%, and the property market appears to be bottoming out. Consumption patterns are shifting, but not necessarily unfavorably.

 

Reference:
Ron William (January 11, 2025) - Simon Hunt: Markets Amidst Trump 2.0. (video)

 

See also: 

Robert Miner (January 8, 2025) - S&P 500 Post-Election Year Patterns by Political Parties.

Namzes (December 27, 2024) - 2025 Outlook on S&P 500, Cryptos, Currencies, Metals & Energy.

Larry Williams (December 24, 2024) - 2025 US Stock Market Outlook.

Martin Armstrong (December 23, 2024) - Outlook for 2025: Depression, Debt, Default & Destruction. 

Leonty Miroshnichenko (2023) - Kondratiev Waves Aligned with Solar Cycles.