Mexico's Economic Rise Shifts Power from the US | Richard D. Wolff

Mexico, often viewed as dependent on the US, holds a significant edge in the global economy, with the US relying more on Mexico than most Americans realize. Beyond avocados and automobiles, Mexico is a vital hub for US supply chains in electronics, pharmaceuticals, automotive, aerospace, medical devices, textiles, consumer goods, and information/communications technology. As the US depends on Mexico, Mexico has strategically built leverage, shifting focus from politics to economics.

 

The Power Problem: Nearshoring and Mexico’s energy sector.

Mexico’s rise as an economic powerhouse challenges its subordinate image. Its leverage in trade, energy, and geopolitics makes it vital to the US. Rising labor and environmental demands could disrupt supply chains. The era of US dominance is fading, replaced by interdependence, and Mexico wields unprecedented influence. A fracture in this delicate relationship could swiftly impact the US. 

 

Mexico, once a trade partner, is now a force reshaping trade and energy policies, catching the US unprepared. The US has long focused on migration and border security, overlooking intricate economic ties. Mexico is a cornerstone of US production, driven by cost-effective labor and trade agreements like the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA, 2020).

 

Mexico’s Manufacturing Momentum: Many well-established industrial clusters.

 

This dependency stems from lower wages and proximity, but this corporate strategy has created vulnerabilities. US companies’ reliance on Mexico’s manufacturing gives Mexico significant leverage. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA,1994) boosted trade but moved US factories to Mexico for cheaper labor, eroding American jobs. USMCA preserved this structure. Mexico, no longer just a low-cost hub, has diversified into energy, consumer markets, and geopolitics, prioritizing labor rights and domestic growth, threatening the cheap labor model and US supply chains.

 

 Puerto Manzanillo, Mexico's new trade hub on the Pacific, bypassing the Panama Canal.

 

US policies, like subsidized agricultural exports, have displaced Mexican farmers, driving migration. US firms’ job relocation to Mexico exploits low-wage workers, creating an underclass on both sides of the border, with migration as a symptom of economic disparities.

Mexico, a key US oil supplier, is asserting control over its energy resources, nationalizing and tightening oversight, challenging US corporations. Its push into renewables diversifies its portfolio, enhancing global leverage. Prioritizing domestic energy could disrupt US imports, forcing a strategic shift.

 Mexico has surpassed China as the top US trade partner.

 » In fact, the most direct and simplest way for the US to reindustrialize would be to 

militarily occupy Mexico and use it as a substitute for China in its economic system. «  

Mexican labor movements demand better wages and conditions, undermining the cheap labor model, potentially raising US consumer prices. Environmental activists push for sustainable practices, challenging resource exploitation.

 

Amid the US-China trade war, Mexico is a nearshoring hub, benefiting from USMCA and proximity. China’s investments in Mexico create a trade triangulation, with Chinese components assembled in Mexico for US export, bypassing tariffs. Mexico negotiates favorable terms with both powers, gaining strategic autonomy.

Reference:
Richard D. Wolff (September 17, 2025) - Mexico Is About to Change Everything for the US. (video)

 

 

Richard D. Wolff, American Marxist economist known for works like "Democracy at Work,"

is teaching at the University of Massachusetts Amherst and The New School.

 

See also:
TPR (January 24, 2025) - Mexico's Strategic Position in China's Maritime Silk Road of the Americas.

TPR (September 12, 2024) - Failed US Regime Change Attempt in Mexico. 

TPR (August 18, 2024) - Mexico Pivoting Away From Washington’s Grip. 
Andrés Manuel López Obrador (May 8, 2024) - The US is in Decline and Desperate Need to Modernize.

Mexico's Strategic Position in China's Maritime Silk Road of the Americas

While Trump and Washington focus on renaming the Gulf of Mexico, reclaiming the Panama Canal, "purchasing" Greenland, toppling the governments of Mexico, Venezuela, Bolivia, Cuba, and Nicaragua, and militarizing and sabotaging global trade, Beijing subtly reshapes the commercial landscape in the Americas. The new Port of Manzanillo, Mexico's Pacific mega-project, is a crucial element in China’s strategic plan for the Maritime Silk Road of the Americas:

 

Second phase inauguration of the Manzanillo project, November 23, 2024.

 

Mexico is building Latin America's largest port in Manzanillo, a flagship project under President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration, continuing Andrés Manuel López Obrador's (2018-2024) legacy to strengthen infrastructure and position Mexico as an economic superpower.

 

 » That's just how they are. «

Situated in Cuyutlán Bay, Colima, the port’s expansion aims to boost Mexico’s international trade capacity and reflects the left-wing government’s vision to enhance key economic sectors: infrastructure, trade, and energy. By 2030, with a 63-billion-peso ($3.4 billion USD) budget, the port will grow from 450 to 1,880 hectares, handling up to 10 million containers annually, ranking among the world’s 20 largest ports.

 Mexico's new trade hub on the Pacific, bypassing the Panama Canal.

This expansion, part of a strategic initiative to boost Mexico’s global connectivity, includes specialized terminals, advanced dredging systems, state-of-the-art cranes, and enhanced railway and road infrastructure. These upgrades will enable the port to handle five mega-ships simultaneously, connect seamlessly with interoceanic logistical corridors and commercial routes in Asia, North America, and Latin America, optimize goods movement, significantly reduce transportation times, and improve access for Mexican products in global markets. 

 By 2030, Puerto Manzanillo will rank among the 20 largest ports in the world.

Puerto Manzanillo will become a pivotal hub for international trade, facilitating direct links with Asia and bypassing the Panama Canal bottleneck. COSCO Shipping’s direct routes further strengthen Manzanillo’s role as a central node in the Asia-Pacific supply chain, positioning it as a strategic partner for Latin American markets.
 

Mexico is on track to become an economic superpower, driven by a growing population, an expanding middle

class, and a robust manufacturing sector, potentially surpassing the US in the second half of the 21st century.

 

This connection strengthens Mexico’s role in the global trade network, promoting exports like automobiles, agricultural goods, and steel, and secures its position as a vital link between Latin America and Asia’s manufacturing powerhouse.

 

See also:
Mauricio Morales (Nov 25, 2024) - ¿Por qué México está construyendo el mega puerto más grande de América Latina? (video)

Failed US Regime Change Attempt in Mexico

The adoption of a constitutional reform in Mexico ended in riots. Demonstrators seized the Mexican Senate building and tried to disperse lawmakers. But unsuccessfully, two thirds of the senators managed to vote in favor. The reform will affect the Supreme Court of Mexico - its members will now be directly elected. This has become a priority for Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. After all, the judges blocked many of his initiatives in every possible way. López Obrador's successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, won the recent elections, and his Morena party won two-thirds of the seats. Now they are going to change the judges.

 

 USAID financed demonstrators storm the upper house and enter the chamber.

 —  September 11, 2024.

At the moment, the courts are increasingly involved in politics, and all over the world - from the USA and Brazil to Poland and Israel. Therefore, the struggle for control over the judicial system is intensifying everywhere. In Mexico, López Obrador's reforms are causing acute dissatisfaction with Washington. The American ambassador even called them "the erosion of democracy." Well, through USAID and funds from the United States, the activities of opposition NGOs are sponsored, whose participants just stormed the Senate building on September 11. And, unlike the storming of the US Capitol on January 6, 2021 this did not cause any criticism from Democrats in the United States. 

 

Mexico has already curtailed military cooperation with Washington and refuses GMO grain from the United States. During the López Obrador era, Mexico began to drift towards China. The pro-American candidates in the recent elections have flown by. So López Obrador has to rock the boat through the riots - and at the same time the US writes Mexico off the "list of democracies." López Obrador in response refuses to help with the migration crisis, which is already destabilizing the United States itself.

 US Coup d'État in Chile —  September 11, 1973.

 

Reference:

Aljazeera (September 11, 2024) - Mexico’s Senate passes judicial reform after protesters break into chamber.

The New York Times (August 27, 2024) - Mexico Pauses Relations With U.S. Embassy Amid Clash Over Judicial Overhaul.
Mexico Pivoting Away From Washington’s Grip —  August 18, 2024.

Andrés Manuel López Obrador (May 8, 2024) - The US is in Decline and Desperate Need to Modernize.

Mexico Pivoting Away From Washington’s Grip

In Mexico City, Washington is accused of sponsoring opposition NGOs such as Mexicans Against Corruption and Impunity (MCCI) through USAID programs and various private foundations, including Ford, Rockefeller, and Soros. The US government has sent nearly $5 million to MCCI since 2018, according to Mexico’s Financial Crimes Unit (UIF). Outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, also known as AMLO, whose term ends on September 30, 2024, has publicly condemned these actions, stating that his Foreign Ministry has sent a diplomatic notice to the US and that he will write directly to President Joe Biden about it. 

 Outgoing Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador
and President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, in the shadow behind him - August 16, 2024.

This accusation is part of a broader pattern of strained relations between the US and Mexico under López Obrador's presidency. Mexico has curtailed military cooperation with the United States, closing its airspace to American military aircrafts and reconnaissance drones. Last year, López Obrador accused the US Department of Defense of spying and vowed to restrict military information after Mexican-related intelligence documents were leaked. 

 

 » [...] if a foreign enemy would dare to profane Your ground with their sole, think,
Oh beloved Fatherland!, that Heaven has given a soldier in every son. War, war! With no mercy  [...] «
Mexican National Anthem

The current row is part of a general pivot away from the US, driven by López Obrador and his left-wing populist MORENA political party, which has repeatedly asserted that Mexico will not be subservient to the US.

■  Last year, López Obrador rebuked “irresponsible” calls from some US lawmakers advocating military action against drug cartels. “We are not going to permit any foreign government to intervene in our territory,” he said.
■  López Obrador conditioned helping Biden with his southern border migrant crisis on lifting sanctions from Cuba and Venezuela – both of which are Mexican trading partners.
■  Mexico slashed imports of genetically-modified US corn in favor of boosting local production, sparking a trade dispute.
■  Mexico joined other major Latin American countries in pushing back on efforts by the US and EU to diplomatically isolate President Nicolás Maduro after the Venezuelan president was reelected to a third term in office.
■  Mexico has refused to support NATO’s proxy war in Ukraine and declined to impose economic sanctions on Russia.
■  Trade volume between Russia and Mexico increased by 9.8% in the first four months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, amounting to $759.99 million.

 

  De-Dollarization: 159 out of the 195 Countries Set to Adopt BRICS New Payment System

while Mexico remains chained by treaties to the sinking dollar-ship.

 

Mexico dethroned China to become the top exporter of goods to the US in 2023.

 

In the broader geopolitical context, Mexico is increasingly engaging with BRICS+ to diversify its global alliances and reduce reliance on the United States. This strategic shift includes substantial investments in the Mexican economy and strengthening ties with China, which offers significant trade and investment opportunities. Mexico's collaboration with BRICS+ presents huge potentials for growth in technology, energy, and agriculture. 

 

In 2024 IMF and World Bank rank Mexico 14th globally in terms of nominal GDP,  and 9th in terms of PPP.

The US attempts to influence the outcome of Mexican elections through its NGOs have been unsuccessful, and President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, who received 60% of the vote in the June 2, 2024 elections, is expected to continue López Obrador’s policies. Should Donald Trump win the next US presidential election, the relationship between the two countries could deteriorate further, with heightened conflicts related to trade, migration, weapons- and drug-trafficking, potentially bringing the two nations to the brink of direct military conflict. Balancing the BRICS+ alliances with existing commitments will be crucial for Mexico's strategic and economic goals.

The US is in Decline and Desperate Need to Modernize | President of Mexico

After a report from the US State Department about the allegedly “poor” human rights situation in Mexico, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) launched a counterattack. He warned Washington that there was no government in the world that had the right to interfere in the politics of another nation. Only the US has repeatedly claimed such special rights in the past. AMLO pronounced: "Mexico will not tolerate such interference. Mexico will never be a protectorate or a colony of another country. Mexico is a free, independent and sovereign country."

  » That's just how they are. They are stagnant and ossified in decadence.

They are in decline and desperately need to modernize. 

The US must change their arrogant interventionist foreign policy.  «

 Andrés Manuel López Obrador, President of Mexico - April 24, 2024.

AMLO condemned US funding of so-called NGOs - such as terrorist groups and drug cartels - that attack Mexico's legitimate government and its courts. It is above all the US that should not lean too far out of the window when it comes to human rights: "Imagine if we would announce that the US are violating human rights, political rights and freedoms, that the Statue of Liberty would be an empty symbol just because they have a presidential candidate who is constantly being dragged into court. How they want to talk about human rights when they are pouring billions of dollars into wars that result in the deaths of innocent people around the world? Why don't they release Assange? Where is the freedom? "

"United States governments are meddling in the internal politics of other countries for at least two centuries. And it is not only giving opinions of good conduct as if they were the judge of the world. They are also intervening militarily in countries with governments not subject to the interests of the United States. That's the story. They used to appoint and remove presidents as they pleased. That is the history of the people of Latin America. Well, in our history they invaded us twice. The first time they forced the Mexican government to sign the Guadalupe Hidalgo Treaty, that is: we lost half of our territory and nine of the fifty US federal states belonged to Mexico. We have not forgotten US Invasions. We have insisted a lot and we will continue to do so: The US must change their arrogant interventionist foreign policy."

 

» Cancel NAFTA/USMCA. Ditch the dollar. Reintroduce the Mexican gold peso. Join the BRICS. «

For now, these topics remain official diplomatic taboos. However, chained to a sinking ship, the US's biggest trading partner is becoming increasingly fed up with the inflation-dollar fraud, the drug-war-plandemic-genocide economy, and the insane migration industry of its northern neighbor.

"How come they allocate so much money to war? Why they do not allocate funds to care for their young people who are suffering from drug use; unfortunately, 100,000 young people die every year from fentanyl use. But that's just how they are. And we shouldn't be surprised. That is how it has been historically. That indicates that they are stagnant, and ossified in decadence. They are in decline and desperately need to modernize."

Quoted from: 

Andrés Manuel López Obrador (April 24, 2024) - México nunca será una colonia. No hemos olvidado las invasiones de EE.UU.