Tuesday, September 2, 2025

Cosmic Cluster Days | September 2025

Heliocentric Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) and financial markets do not display a consistent polarity or directional bias. The 'noise channel' serves as a signal filter, with the upper and lower limits of the channel being empirically defined. That said, swing directions, along with swing highs and lows also within the 'noise channel,' may correlate with or coincide with short-term market trends and reversals.
 
 Cosmic Cluster Days  |   Composite Line  |  Noise Channel 
  = Full Moon | = New Moon |   = Lunar Declination max North and  = max South立春Solar Terms
 
Cosmic Cluster Days in September 2025: 
Aug 24 (Sun) | Sep 08 (Mon) | Sep 12 (Fri) | Sep 15 (Mon) | Sep 21 (Sun) | Sep 23 (Tue) | Sep 24 (Wed) | Oct 02 (Thu)
   
For previous CCDs, click [HERE]. For background on the author, the concept, and the calculation method, click [HERE].
 
 

Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Turning Points, click [HERE]. 
Sensitive Degrees of the Sun, click [HERE].
Planet Speed (Retrogradity), click [HERE].   
Planetary Declinations, click [HERE].
Lunation Cycle, click [HERE].  

The SoLunar Rhythm in September 2025.

Monday, September 1, 2025

Hybrid Warfare & Strategic Stalemate in China–US Competition | Jin Canrong

Structurally speaking, China–US relations are certainly not good. The logic is quite simple: the world is changing significantly, and China is the variable, while the US is the leader of the original order. Naturally, the US is not pleased. [...] Whether it's Biden or Trump, both consider China their only opponent. This is very critical. America’s power is still greater than ours.

Jin Canrong (金灿荣), leading scholar of China-US relations, American politics, and foreign policy;
CCP strategist; Professor and Associate Dean, School of International Studies, Renmin University of China.

[...] China–US relations entered full competition in late 2017, when the US began to wage a hybrid war against China. It is called a hybrid war because multiple tactics are employed: trade war; industrial war (denying chips and pushing Chinese companies to relocate industries); financial war (aggressive interest rate hikes to extract Chinese capital); legal battles; media campaigns (such as accusations of genocide in Xinjiang); and biological warfare allegations, including SARS and COVID-19 claims.

» Siding with the EU to split the West. «
The China-US Competition, Jin Canrong, August 19, 2025.

[...] There are also sovereignty issues concerning Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the East and South China Seas, as well as opposition to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) through new alliances, like AUKUS (US, UK, Australia) and the Quad (US, India, Australia, Japan).

[...] The first phase involved US offensives and China’s strategic defense; now, we have entered a strategic stalemate. The key to strategic alignment is domestic management. The US faces high debt, declining manufacturing, and internal challenges, while China confronts economic performance issues, social conflicts, and a rapidly falling birth rate. Addressing domestic challenges strengthens both nations’ positions abroad.

[...] The US strategy toward China involves territorial ambitions (Canada, Greenland, Panama Canal), aligning Russia, reorganizing allies (Europe, Japan, Canada), and increasing defense spending to ensure allies can act independently. China, meanwhile, has abandoned its low-profile policy, focusing on active defense and strategic deterrence.

[...] Since last year, China’s defense policy has changed. China has moved from passive strategy to assertive action. Strategic stalemate depends on addressing domestic issues first, then external threats. For external alignment, China should coordinate with the EU to balance the West, manage neighboring relations, and continue Belt and Road and BRICS initiatives. This roughly represents the current positions of both parties.
 

SCO Summit Ushers in New Global Security Order and Development Strategy

The Tianjin SCO Summit (August 31–September 1, 2025) brought together leaders from more than 20 nations and delegations from over 30 countries, representing half of humanity. Founded in 2001 from the “Shanghai Five” bloc, the SCO has since evolved into a platform of global significance, no longer limited to Eurasian security but increasingly positioned as a central force in world affairs.

Eurasia’s great powers 
align.
 
The summit adopted the "Tianjin Declaration" and updated the "SCO Development Strategy to 2035", mapping out collective approaches to global security, economic stability, technology gaps, and humanitarian issues. Around 20 agreements were signed covering regional security, economic cooperation, and cultural ties—showing the SCO’s increasingly comprehensive agenda.

The most striking diplomatic development was the warming of "China–India relations". Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi affirmed that their countries should act as partners, not rivals—“the dragon and the elephant dancing together.” China also declared readiness to cooperate with Belarus, strengthening its support for Russia. Azerbaijan’s potential membership was floated, adding complexity to regional dynamics.

Unlike Western alliances, the SCO emphasizes "non-interference, equality, and mutual respect", principles that resonate strongly with the Global South. Many members are also part of BRICS, reinforcing the alignment of emerging economies seeking independence from Western dominance. The summit thus showcased an alternative model of governance appealing to nations dissatisfied with US-led structures.

Indian Business Today depicts Trump's futile attempts
to stop the out-of-control Indian elephant.

The presence of leaders from Mongolia, Turkey, Egypt, and Indonesia underscored the SCO’s expanding gravitational pull. Ceremonies marking the 80th anniversary of the victory over Japan reminded participants of the historical depth of Russia–China ties and their shared resistance to Western hegemony. Symbolic gestures, such as Putin and Modi walking hand in hand, highlighted the summit’s theatrical but strategic diplomacy.
 
» The Dragon and the Elephant should dance together. «
Following Donald Trump's "unwise tariffs," former Global Times reporter
Yang Sheng says the policies pushed China and India to set aside differences. 
 
The summit signaled the "rise of a multipolar world order". By uniting Asia’s largest powers and fostering ties across the Global South, the SCO has moved closer to becoming a true counterweight to Western institutions. 
 
The West relegated to the rank of frustrated spectator.

Together with BRICS, it now represents a complementary pole of power. If China and India consolidate cooperation, analysts see the potential for a profound realignment of global governance away from Western dominance.
 
See also:

DJIA Squares Out in Price and Time for the First Time in History | @Fiorente2

For the first time in history, the DJIA has squared out in both price and time from its bear market low of September 24th, 1900, in 45,631 calendar days at a price level of $45,631. Considering the span of 125 years, this point marks a highly significant market hotspot.

In Gann terminology, "squaring price and time" refers to a balanced or harmonious relationship between 
the price and time dimensions, often indicating significant market reversals. Price and Time are interchangeable.

Last week, the DJIA reached the 45,631 level, which occurred two days before the expected square-out date on August 30, 2025, after 45,631 calendar days had elapsed. The square-out at 45,631 is significant because it is a prime number, emphasizing its importance on the 1x1 line, as it cannot be divided into smaller cycles that also “square” both price and time.

This does not necessarily mean that the bull market is over, as the 1x1 line continues on its path; however, this 1x1 line can represent significant resistance for some time to come. When broken, other past highs and lows may become more relevant, and we may see an even higher 1x1 timing line. On the chart above, I have included some relevant prices and future time dates, referencing past market highs and lows, as well as future dates.

 
» I do not expect a market shock to occur, similar to the one in March and April this year, 
which has been an echo of the 1987 decline, based on this 45-year Saturn-Uranus Cycle. « 
@Fiorente2, July 20, 2025.

The Mystery of the Maya Calendar | Martin Armstrong

Of all the calendars devised by man, there is truly nothing like the Maya investigation. They seem to be an ancient people who understood time. How, I am not sure. But their calculations are astonishing, and are not based upon the planets, but upon the cyclical forces of nature that they perceived. They certainly thought dynamically, rather than linearly, suggesting a more Asian foundation compared to European.

The Bearer of the Burden of Time: The Haab' calendar consists of 18 uinals (20-day periods) followed by
a 5-day period called wayeb, deemed unlucky as it disrupts the cycle, totaling 365.2422 solar days. 

The number 26 also shows up in the Maya calendar, which is quite remarkable. The calendar consists of a ritual cycle of 260 named days, and a 365-day year. Both are running in a complex, concurrent relationship. These components combine, creating a cycle of 18,980 days, constituting 52 years of 365 days, known as the "Calendar Round," where, at the end, a specific day designated in the 260-day cycle returns to the start, insofar as it recurs in the same position in the year. The 260-day cycle is formed by the combination of numerals 1 through 13, which mesh with a rotating wheel of 20 names in an ordered sequence. If we take 260 days and divide by 5, we end back at 52.

 
 
The Maya calendar is complex, shows dynamic thinking, and is far more intriguing from a mathematical perspective. The 365-year cycle was divided by 18 named months of 20 named days, with 5 days of mystic evil omen. The Maya named years based upon the first name of the day that appeared. However, the 365 days could be divided by 5, yielding 73 days (close to the 72-intensity cycle), and the number of named days being 20 was also divisible by 5, resulting in only 4 names combined with 13 numbers that could ever begin a year. These seem to be called "Year Bearers," and were assigned according to the 4 quarters of the world, and were given 4 specific colors. This becomes akin to the saying involving the 4 corners of the world and the 4 winds.

Measuring time since the day of the creation of the universe,
4 Ahau 8 Cumku (August 11, 3114 BCE), is known as the Maya Long Count.
 
The manner in which the Maya recorded dates shows a highly tuned style of dynamic thinking rather than linear. To specify a date in the "Calendar Round," they used the designated day by its numeral and name distinction, and added the current month by prefixing the number of days that had passed with the corresponding number for that month, using 0–19 rather than 1–20. A date written in this curious manner would occur only once in every Calendar Round, resulting in intervals of 52 years.

Yet the Maya were still concerned about reflecting time in a much longer space dimension. They showed a dynamic thinking process for time, and a keen sense of history that they needed to be able to reflect. The Maya devised the "Long Count," which was based upon a system of a count of 20; they strangely used 18 as the multiplier (18 × 4 = 72). Therefore, the dates were written as: kin (day); uinal (20 days); tun (18 uinals or 360 days); katun (20 tuns or 7,200 days); baktun (20 katuns or 144,000 days). Why the Maya used 18 as the multiplier is unknown. Perhaps they noticed the volatility of history, perhaps instigated by nature. 
 
Temple of Kukulkán, the feathered serpent, at Chichén Itzá, Mexico.

The "Long Count" was a means of anchoring time in a continuous time-space dimension, which they could see unfold as such: 1 kin = 1 day, 20 kin = 1 uinal, 18 uinals = 1 tun, 20 tuns = 1 katun, 20 katuns = 1 baktun. The Long Count was not just a calendar alone; the Maya conceived time as a dimension through which history is formed, but also as a cyclical event of self-organizing structure. The basic elements of the Mayan calendar have little to do with astronomy. The Maya seem to have placed great significance on cycles. There is the curious 819-day cycle (13 × 9 × 7 = 819), which also shockingly produces 2.24 years! The hidden order exists—it is not chaos!
 
 
 
The interesting aspect of the Maya calendar is its concurrent and dynamic structure of time, which is closer to what I have described from independent observations, having nothing to do with planetary movements. The use of both the 72 and 26 units of time is striking. The Aztec calendar followed the Maya in many respects, but incorporated a 584-day cycle from the planet Venus, and two 52-year cycles were considered "One Old Age," when the day cycle, the year, and the period of Venus all came together. These were also noted by the Maya, but were more important to the Aztec. All Meso-Americans believed in the cyclical destruction and re-creation of the world in these great sweeping periods of time.

The core of the Maya calendar is that the world is destroyed and reborn time and time again. While they saw the end of this world on December 21st, 2012, that would erupt from earthquakes, that is a separate issue. Lacking the data of the previous cycle from which the Maya started their calendar, there is no way to project forward to even test the theory. Like most religion, this falls into the area of faith, not math.

Calendars based upon the moon cycle of 19 years, known as the Metonic Cycle (named after Meton of Athens in 432 BC), or the solar cycle of 365.25 days, or the 28-year cycle when the same day repeats with the same number under the Julian Calendar, have created interesting math calculations. The Julian calendar cycle = 7,980 years, produced by 19 × 28 × 15. The last 15-year cycle is the Roman tax and census cycle of Indiction. There are calendars based upon Jupiter and its 12-year cycle. But all are cyclical-based.


 
See also:

The 8.6-Month or 37.33-Week Cycle | Martin Armstrong

There are 37.33 weeks within an 8.6-month cycle. Looking at the 8.6-month turning points within the 8.6-year wave structure, we have the following dates:
 

Note, we have 6 waves within each half of the 8.6-year wave. This is caused by the parallel wave that groups 12 waves of 6 into the 72-interval wave. We can see that the difference between 2008.57 and 2009.29 is again 0.72% of a year. Once more, we see the interjection of the number 72.

 
The interaction between this 8.6-month cycle within the 8.6-year cycle is critical to comprehending how the natural cyclical forces function in all aspects of our physical world. On the 8.6-year wave, the first reaction low after the major high at 2007.15 is 2008.225, corresponding to March 23, 2008. 
 
You will notice that this date does not appear on the list of dates above. This turning point was the low for the AMEX Oil Index, from which a rally moved into May 21, 2008, just afterwards. Many commodities reached turning points ±1 week from that March 23rd target, such as cattle, sugar, coffee, cotton, wheat, and soybean oil, just to mention a few. 
 
When we compare the 8.6-month cycle (37.33 weeks), we see the target of July 27, 2008. Here, we find again turning points generally ±1 week or so. The Australian dollar reached a high on July 15, 2008, for the year. The Mexican peso peaked August 4. The Euro peaked on July 15. Now, if we look at the Swiss franc, the high was March 17, 2008; the high in the Japanese yen was also March 17, 2008. Let us now turn to the British pound; here, the high is November 9, 2007, and the Canadian dollar peaked November 7, 2007. Looking at the above list of 8.6-month dates, we see November 10, 2007.

See also:

Friday, August 29, 2025

Who Invented BRICS | Yuliana Titaeva

Many people believe that the idea of this strategic alliance was proposed in 2001 by Goldman Sachs analyst Jim O’Neill. In fact, he only came up with a successful name—BRIC (“brick”), formed from the first letters of the countries. The point was that these four economies would be the engines of global growth in the 21st century.
 
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit from August 31 to September 1 in Tianjin.
 
But in reality, the idea of an alliance between Russia, India, and China was first voiced by… Vladimir Ilyich Lenin. In 1920, Lenin wrote a “Letter to the Indian Revolutionary Association in which he directly addressed the Indian people, called for liberation from British colonialism, and emphasized that India’s struggle was part of the world revolution. For Lenin, Russia had to be the natural ally of India and China in this struggle.

» The spiral of history. «  
Vladimir Ilyich Lenin, 1920. 
 
Of course, Lenin thought in terms of revolutions and class struggle, not trade blocs. But still, this was the first articulation of the "Russia–India–China" connection as a historical and political project. He was the first to see in these three civilizational giants natural allies against Western hegemony.

SCO Unites to Crush NATO’s Pressure, Pepe Escobar, August 29, 2025.
 
Seventy-eight years later, in 1998, the foreign minister of the new Russia, Yevgeny Maksimovich Primakov, formalized the idea of the strategic triangle RIC (Russia–India–China) as a foreign policy concept. In 2006, the tropical giant Brazil joined the "triangle," and the four countries turned the abbreviation into a real international club. Today, before our very eyes, BRICS is beginning to perceive itself as an alliance against Western hegemony. The spiral of history.

 
 
See also:

Thursday, August 28, 2025

Europe's Debt Ponzi Scheme 2.0—Default or Forced Loan | Martin Armstrong

During the Panic of 1893, which became a global contagion, Italy couldn't roll over its short-term debt, as it was unable to sell new bonds to pay off maturing ones. When faced with circumstances similar to what we see today, Italy did not officially default in the classic sense of failing to pay. Still, it executed a coercive debt restructuring that is widely considered a selective default or soft default in 1893–1894. This is what we refer to as a forced loan.

» We are living in a perpetual Ponzi scheme. « 
 
Italy was facing a run on its short-term debt and unable to roll over the maturing paper because there were no buyers. The Italian government, led by Prime Minister Francesco Crispi, did not formally declare a default. Instead, it passed a law (Legge 11 luglio 1894, n. 386) that forcibly converted the short-term Buoni del Tesoro into a new long-term bond. The law mandated that holders of the short-term Treasury notes could not be repaid in cash upon maturity. Instead, they were forced to exchange their maturing short-term paper for a new long-term government bond, called the “Rendita Italiana 5%” (5% Italian Annuity).

Where inmates run the asylum, insanity rules.

This new bond had a 5% coupon but was issued at a price below par (effectively giving a higher yield to compensate, somewhat, for the forced nature of the deal. Crucially, it was a perpetual bond, meaning it had no final maturity date.

The Italian government unilaterally changed the terms of its debt. Investors lent money for 30 days, expecting to be repaid in cash at the end of that term. The government broke that promise. Investors had no choice. They could not get their cash back; their only option was to accept the new long-term instrument. While they received a new security, it was illiquid (perpetual), and its value was uncertain. This action caused significant financial losses for many Italian banks and citizens who held the paper.

I would expect that Europe will do this when it can no longer issue new debt to pay off its old debt. We are living in a perpetual Ponzi scheme. There is only one way this ends, and that is a default or a forced loan. 
 
 
»
Europe needs war as a distraction, and stablecoins are, in fact, war bonds. « 
 

See also:

Monday, August 25, 2025

20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin | David Hickson

The S&P 500 suggests a Hurst 20-week cycle trough has formed on August 1, but the NASDAQ and Bitcoin point to a trough that still lies ahead. This divergence underscores the need for cross-market confirmation before drawing firm conclusions.

S&P 500: The April 7 trough of 18-month or larger magnitude underpins the ongoing bullish bias. Sentient Trader Hurst cycle analysis software places the 20-week trough in early August, but the FLD (Future Line of Demarcation) interaction rating is weak (~30%), leaving doubt about whether it was the 20-week low. Price has shown some support at the 20-day FLD, but evidence remains mixed.
 
The April 7 trough of 18-month or larger magnitude underpins the ongoing bullish bias. 
 
If the early-August low was indeed the 20-week trough, the S&P 500 could break above its mid-August highs and extend higher into autumn. If not, the index still has a decline due, possibly into late August, before resuming its primary uptrend. Traders should await confirmation through clearer FLD interaction.

Schematic 18-Month Cycle Projection for the S&P 500.

 
David Hickson's cycle analysis software, Sentient Trader, calculates the current average wavelength of the nominal 40-week cycle or 9-month cycle in the S&P 500 as only 32.4 weeks (the colored boxes on the price scale at the bottom right of Sentient Trader charts show the average lengths of cycles), whereas the above schematic projection of the 18-month cycle uses Hurst's original average wavelength of 38.97 weeks or 272 days. This represents a difference of 46 days, or 6.6 weeks (Hurst's Principle of Variation). David F. recently calculated the average wavelength of the 40-week cycle over the last 15 iterations since February 2015 to be 259 days, or 37 weeks. Sentient Trader's 20-week cycle currently measures only 16.8 weeks and favored the August 1 low as the 20-week cycle trough. In contrast, Hurst's original value of 19.48 weeks aligned exactly with the recent W formation or double bottom in the S&P 500 on August 20-22.
 
 
 
Hurst's original approach identifies harmonic cycle lengths between lows, and in any composite or summation of a set of cycles with 2:1 ratios of length and amplitude, the crests of individual cycles actually become troughs in the summation line (thick black line). Hurst analysis can also be used to identify cycles between highs, as illustrated by the gold example below.

Schematic composite cycle projection for the S&P 500 during the 
bullish 9-month cycle phase of the current 18-Month Cycle.

Assuming the S&P 500 is in the first bullish half of the third and last 18-month cycle within the current 54-month cycle (which allegedly began in October 2022), and there is no uplifting and dominant influence of the 9-year, 18-year, or 54-year cycles, the upcoming 40-week cycle peak, anticipated around late September to early October, would be a long-term market top. Downward pressure would then lead the S&P 500 through a series of major lower lows and lower highs into the 54-month cycle trough projected into the third quarter of 2026. The same should be true for the NASDAQ
 
NASDAQ: Like the S&P 500, the April 18-month and June 80-day troughs are confirmed, but the early August price action points more convincingly to a 40-day trough, not a 20-week low. The FLD sequence is highly rated (~54%), with clean breakdowns below the 20-day FLD, suggesting the 20-week trough still lies ahead. This cycle evidence looks stronger than in the S&P 500.
 
 In the NASDAQ, Sentient Trader's nominal 20-week cycle currently uses an average wavelength of 20.9 weeks,
and therefore anticipates the 20-week cycle trough in late August or early September (thick dashed orange line).

The NASDAQ is likely to weaken into late August as it completes the 20-week cycle trough. Once that trough forms, the structure points to a strong rebound into a 40-week cycle high around late September, consistent with the dominant 18-month cycle uptrend. Until then, resistance at the 20-day FLD should cap the price.

Gold: Remains rangebound beneath a potential 12-year cycle peak on April 22, but its phasing is uncertain. A recent 20-day cycle trough has been confirmed, providing short-term support. Price is currently trapped in a wedge, with both 40-day and 80-day VTLs (Valid Trend Lines) acting as boundaries.
 
A breakout above the wedge would lead to a potential 12-year cycle peak before a larger decline.
 
The immediate bias is for a short-term rise as the 20-day cycle exerts upward pressure. A breakout above the wedge or VTL resistance would open the door to new highs before the larger decline sets in. Failure to break higher could prolong sideways action.
 
 

Bitcoin: Cycle structure is very clear and highly rated (~69%). The 20-week trough has not yet formed; instead, price is in decline following a textbook F-category interaction at the 20-day FLD. Early August marked only a 40-day trough, not the larger low.
 
In Bitcoin, Sentient Trader averages the nominal wavelength of the 20-week cycle as 20.5 weeks,
and projects the cycle trough into the first week of September.
 

Price is expected to continue falling into the 20-week trough, likely completing within weeks. A rebound should follow once the trough is established, though risks remain of a bearish asymmetry if the cycle phasing proves misaligned. The short-term bias for Bitcoin remains downward.