Sunday, February 1, 2026

The Science Delusion: Freeing the Spirit of Inquiry | Rupert Sheldrake

The science delusion is the belief that science already understands the nature of reality in principle, leaving only the details to be filled in. This is a very widespread belief in our society; it is the belief system of people who say, "I don't believe in God, I believe in science." It is a belief system which has now been spread to the entire world. 

 » Why shouldn't the laws of nature themselves evolve? «
 
However, there is a conflict at the heart of science between science as a method of inquiry based on reason, evidence, hypothesis, and collective investigation, and science as a belief system or a worldview. Unfortunately, the worldview aspect of science has come to inhibit and constrict the free inquiry which is the very lifeblood of the scientific endeavor.

Since the late nineteenth century, science has been conducted under the aspect of a belief system or a worldview which is essentially that of materialism—philosophical materialism. The sciences are now wholly owned subsidiaries of the materialist worldview. Essentially, today, there are ten dogmas, which constitute the worldview of most educated people: 
 
Dogma one: Nature is mechanical or machine-like. The universe is like a machine, animals and plants are like machines, and we are like machines. In fact, we are machines; we are "lumbering robots," in Richard Dawkins’ vivid phrase, with brains that are genetically programmed computers. 
 
Dogma two: Matter is unconscious. The whole universe is made up of unconscious matter. There is no consciousness in stars, in galaxies, in planets, in animals, or in plants, and there ought not be in any of us either, if this theory is true. Consequently, a great deal of the philosophy of mind over the last hundred years has been trying to prove that we are not really conscious at all.

Dogma three: If matter is unconscious, then the laws of nature must be fixed. They are the same now as they were at the time of the Big Bang, and they will be the same forever. Not just the laws, but the constants of nature are fixed, which is why they are called constants. 
 
Dogma four: The total amount of matter and energy is always the same. It never changes in total quantity, except at the moment of the Big Bang when it all sprang into existence from nowhere in a single instant. 
 
Dogma five: Nature is purposeless. There are no purposes in all nature, and the evolutionary process has no purpose or direction. 
 
Dogma six: Biological heredity is material. Everything you inherit is in your genes, or in epigenetic modifications of the genes, or in cytoplasmic inheritance. It is material. 
 
Dogma seven: Memories are stored inside your brain as material traces. Somehow, everything you remember is in your brain in modified nerve endings or phosphorylated proteins; no one knows how it works, but nevertheless, almost everyone in the scientific world believes it must be in the brain.

Dogma eight: Your mind is inside your head. All your consciousness is the activity of your brain, and nothing more. 
 
Dogma nine: Psychic phenomena like telepathy are impossible. Your thoughts and intentions cannot have any effect at a distance because your mind is inside your head. Therefore, all the apparent evidence for telepathy and other psychic phenomena is illusory. People believe these things happen, but it is just because they do not know enough about statistics, they are deceived by coincidences, or it is wishful thinking. 
 
Dogma ten: Mechanistic medicine is the only kind that really works. That is why governments only fund research into mechanistic medicine and ignore complementary and alternative therapies. Those cannot possibly really work because they are not mechanistic. They may appear to work because people would have recovered anyway or because of the placebo effect, but the only kind that really works is mechanistic medicine.

This is the default worldview held by almost all educated people all over the world. It is the basis of the educational system, the national health service, the medical research council, and governments. But I think every one of these dogmas is very, very questionable, and when you look at them, they fall apart.
 
 » Give us one free miracle, and we'll explain the rest. «
 
Let's first look at the idea that the laws of nature are fixed (Dogma three). This is a hangover from an older worldview prior to the 1960s, before the Big Bang theory came in. People thought the whole universe was eternal, governed by eternal mathematical laws. When the Big Bang theory was accepted, that assumption continued, even though the Big Bang revealed a universe that is radically evolutionary—about fourteen billion years old, growing, developing, and evolving. It has been growing and cooling, with more structures and patterns appearing within it, yet the idea remains that all the laws of nature were completely fixed at the moment of the Big Bang like a cosmic Napoleonic Code. As my friend Terence McKenna used to say, modern science is based upon the principle, "Give us one free miracle, and we'll explain the rest." The one free miracle is the appearance of all the matter and energy in the universe and all the laws that govern it, from nothing, in a single instant.

Well, in an evolutionary universe, why shouldn't the laws themselves evolve? After all, human laws do, and the idea of "laws of nature" is based on a metaphor with human laws. It is a very anthropocentric metaphor; only humans have laws—in fact, only civilized societies have laws. As C.S. Lewis once said, to say that a stone falls to earth because it is obeying a law makes it a man, and even a citizen. It is a metaphor we have become so used to that we have forgotten it is a metaphor. In an evolving universe, I think a much better idea is the idea of habits. I think the habits of nature evolve; the regularities of nature are essentially habitual. This was an idea put forward at the beginning of the twentieth century by the American philosopher C.S. Peirce; it is an idea which various other philosophers have entertained, and it is one which I myself have developed into a scientific hypothesis: the hypothesis of Morphic Resonance, which is the basis of these evolving habits.

» Everything depends on evolving habits, not on fixed laws. «
 
According to this hypothesis, everything in nature has a kind of collective memory; resonance occurs on the basis of similarity. As a young giraffe embryo grows in its mother’s womb, it tunes in to the morphic resonance of previous giraffes. It draws on that collective memory, grows like a giraffe, and behaves like a giraffe because it is drawing on this collective memory. It has to have the right genes to make the right proteins, but genes, in my view, are grossly overrated. They only account for the proteins that the organism can make, not the form, the shape, or the behavior. Every species has a kind of collective memory. Even crystals do. This theory predicts that if you make a new kind of crystal for the first time, it won't have an existing habit. But once it crystallizes, then the next time you make it, there will be an influence from the first crystals to the second ones, all over the world by morphic resonance; it will crystallize a bit easier. The third time, there will be an influence from the first and second crystals.

There is, in fact, good evidence that new compounds get easier to crystallize all around the world, just as this theory would predict. It also predicts that if you train animals to learn a new trick—for example, if rats learn a new trick in London—then all around the world, rats of the same breed should learn the same trick quicker just because the rats had learned it here. Surprisingly, there is already evidence that this actually happens. Anyway, that is my own hypothesis in a nutshell: morphic resonance. Everything depends on evolving habits, not on fixed laws.
 
 » These dogmas have held back science for so long. «

I want to spend a few moments on the constants of nature, because these are, again, assumed to be constant. Things like the gravitational constant or the speed of light are called the fundamental constants. Are they really constant? When I got interested in this question, I tried to find out. They are given in physics handbooks, which list the existing fundamental constants and tell you their value. But I wanted to see if they had changed, so I obtained old volumes of physical handbooks. I went to the Patent Office library here in London—the only place I could find that old volumes. Normally, people throw them away when the new volumes come out. When I did this, I found that the speed of light dropped between 1928 and 1945 by about twenty kilometers per second. It is a huge drop, especially since they are given with errors of only tiny fractions of a decimal point. Yet, all over the world, it dropped, and researchers were all getting very similar values to each other with tiny errors. Then, in 1948, it went up again, and people started getting very similar values once more.

I was very intrigued by this and could not make sense of it, so I went to see the Head of Metrology at the National Physical Laboratory in Teddington. Metrology is the science in which people measure constants. I asked him about this drop in the speed of light between 1928 and 1945. He said, "Oh dear, you've uncovered the most embarrassing episode in the history of our science." I asked, "Well, could the speed of light have actually dropped? That would have amazing implications if so." He replied, "No, no, of course it couldn't have actually dropped. It's a constant!" I said, "Oh, well then how do you explain the fact that everyone was finding it going much slower during that period? Is it because they were fudging their results to get what they thought other people should be getting, and the whole thing was just produced in the minds of physicists?" He said, "We don't like to use the word 'fudge'." I asked, "Well, so what do you prefer?" He said, "Well, we prefer to call it 'intellectual phase-locking'."

 » Of course it couldn't have actually dropped. It's a constant! «
 
I then asked, "Well, if it was going on then, how can you be so sure it's not going on today? And that the present values produced are not by intellectual phase-locking?" He said, "Oh, we know that's not the case." I asked, "How do we know?" He replied, "Well, we've solved the problem." I asked how, and he said, "Well, we fixed the speed of light by definition in 1972." I said, "But it might still change." He replied, "Yes, but we'd never know it, because we've defined the meter in terms of the speed of light, so the units would change with it!" He looked very pleased about that; they had fixed that problem.

But then I asked, "Well, what about Big G?" The gravitational constant, known in the trade as "Big G," Newton's universal gravitational constant. That has varied by more than 1.3% in recent years, and it seems to vary from place to place and from time to time. He said, "Oh well, those are just errors. And unfortunately, there are quite big errors with Big G." I suggested, "Well, what if it's really changing? I mean, perhaps it is really changing." When I looked at how they do it, I found that they measure it in different labs, get different values on different days, and then they average them. Other labs around the world do the same, usually coming out with a rather different average. Then the International Committee of Metrology meets every ten years or so and averages the results from labs all around the world to come up with the value of Big G.

» This week, Big G was slightly up, the speed of light held steady. «
 
But what if G were actually fluctuating? What if the Earth, as it moves through the galactic environment, went through patches of dark matter or other environmental factors that could alter it? Maybe they all change together. What if these errors are going up and down together? For more than ten years, I have been trying to persuade metrologists to look at the raw data. In fact, I am now trying to persuade them to put it up online, on the internet, with the dates and the actual measurements, to see if they are correlated—to see if they are all up at one time and all down at another. If so, they might be fluctuating together, and that would tell us something very, very interesting. But no one has done this; they haven't done it because G is a constant, so there is no point looking for changes. Here is a very simple example of where a dogmatic assumption actually inhibits inquiry. I, myself, think that the constants may vary quite considerably, albeit within narrow limits. I think the day will come when scientific journals like Nature have a weekly report on the constants, like stock-market reports in the newspapers: "This week, Big G was slightly up, the charge on the electron was down, the speed of light held steady," and so on.

» What you are seeing is inside your mind, but not inside your head. «
 
That is one area where I think thinking dogmatically could open things up. One of the biggest areas, however, is the nature of the mind. This is the most unsolved problem; science simply cannot deal with the fact that we are conscious. It cannot deal with the fact that our thoughts do not seem to be inside our brains (Dogmas seven and eight). Our experiences do not all seem to be inside our brain. Your image of me now does not seem to be inside your brain, yet the official view is that there is a little Rupert somewhere inside your head, and everything else in this room is inside your head—your experience is inside your brain. I am suggesting, actually, that vision involves an outward projection of images; what you are seeing is inside your mind, but not inside your head. Our minds are extended beyond our brains in the simplest act of perception. 
 
I think that we project out the images we are seeing, and these images touch what we are looking at (Dogma nine). If I look at you from behind, you don't know I'm there—or do you? Could I affect you? Could you feel my gaze? There is a great deal of evidence that people can. The sense of being stared at is an extremely common experience, and recent experimental evidence actually suggests it is real. Animals seem to have it too. I think it probably evolved in the context of predator-prey relationships. Prey animals that could feel the gaze of a predator would survive better than those that could not. This would lead to a whole new way of thinking about ecological relationships between predators and prey, and also about the extent of our minds. If we look at distant stars, I think our minds reach out, in a sense, to touch those stars and literally extend out over astronomical distances. They are not just inside our heads. Now, it may seem astonishing that this is a topic of debate in the twenty-first century. We know so little about our own minds that where our images are located is a hot topic of debate within consciousness studies right now.

» Our minds extend over astronomical distances. «
 
I do not have time to deal with any more of these dogmas, but every single one of them is questionable. If one questions them, new forms of research and new possibilities open up. I think as we question these dogmas that have held back science for so long, science will undergo a reflowering, a renaissance. I am a total believer in the importance of science; I have spent my whole life and my whole career as a research scientist. And I think that as we break out of these dogmas, the sciences will be regenerated. 

Rupert Sheldrake (b. 1942) is a British biologist and author. He earned his Ph.D. in biochemistry from the University of Cambridge and conducted research in plant physiology at institutions including the University of Cambridge and the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics in India. Sheldrake is known for proposing the theory of morphic resonance, which suggests that natural systems inherit a collective memory through morphic fields. A practicing Anglican, he has authored several books, including "A New Science of Life" (1981) and "The Science Delusion" (2012/2020), and continues to lecture and write on topics in science and philosophy.

Friday, January 30, 2026

ICE and the Rise of Trump's Meta-Palantir-X Police State | Stew Peters

There are individuals claiming the mantle of patriots, freedom fighters, or "America First" advocates who are actively cheering for ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) and Border Patrol raids within the American interior—cities like Minneapolis, Minnesota. It is worth noting that these operations have demonstrably failed to usher in the promised mass deportations.

 » Testing ground for implementing new technologies. «

We recognized from the outset that these raids are not truly about mass deportations, nor are they designed to remove illegal invaders. If that were the objective, the military would be in charge of the operation. Instead, what we are witnessing is a federal law enforcement maneuver intended to habituate the American public to the presence of heavily armed state agents patrolling neighborhood streets. These operations serve as a testing ground for implementing new technologies—specifically Artificial Intelligence—designed to transform this country into a police state and a surveillance apparatus that would surpass the reach of the Soviet Union's secret police.

This surveillance state is being constructed to facilitate the tracking, policing, and even the extrajudicial killing of American citizens who find themselves in opposition to the government and its financial benefactors. We are now seeing video evidence that confirms our prior warnings. Recently, footage went viral showing Border Patrol agents in Illinois wearing Meta-produced AI glasses. Agents used these devices to photograph protesters, presumably to integrate their images into federal databases and populate their "Palantir" profiles.

» Weapons of choice against the American people. «
 
While Meta publicly claims these glasses lack facial recognition, college students have already modified the exact same hardware to scan the internet and identify individuals instantly. If twenty-year-olds can achieve this, the capabilities available to the engineers at Meta—and by extension, the Department of Homeland Security—are far more profound. Given Mark Zuckerberg’s newfound alignment with Donald Trump, the Meta Ray-Bans worn by federal agents clashing with protesters are capable of much more than simple photography. It appears that Meta, the federal government, and various "Big Tech" AI corporations—including Palantir and X—are utilizing domestic chaos to field-test the very technologies and implementation methods they intend to permanentize. Welcome to the AI surveillance state; it has already arrived.

[...] We are entering a new era because the public is, in many ways, inviting it. We are seeing the rise of federal "robo-cops" equipped with AI sunglasses and mobile devices linked to facial recognition networks, scanning cities as if participating in a simulated urban warfare environment. Their priority is not the deportation of undocumented immigrants—noting that only approximately 350,000 were removed in 2025—but rather the installation of a police state. By fostering a chaotic and dangerous environment, they encourage citizens to plead for more agents and more control. The concept of mass deportation is being used as a rhetorical device to gain public consent for constant surveillance.
 
We have recently learned from a source within Turning Point USA that members of Charlie Kirk’s security team were wearing AI glasses, similar to those used by the DHS, to scan crowds and coordinate with drone swarms and remote-viewing systems. This technology is being utilized to target and eliminate Americans, and the cases of Alex Pretti and Charlie Kirk are merely the beginning. We are witnessing the birth of a system where constant scanning and identification are the weapons of choice against the American people.
 
 
 
See also:
Stew Peters (b. 1980) is a US former bounty hunter who hosts 'The Stew Peters Show,' a platform known for its anti-establishment rhetoric. A polarizing figure in alternative media, he gained prominence for his criticism of the 2020 US election and COVID-19 vaccines, most notably through his film 'Died Suddenly.' 

Can Penguins Go Insane? | Werner Herzog

These penguins are all heading to the open water, but one of them caught our eye: the one in the center. He would neither go toward the feeding grounds at the edge of the ice nor return to the colony. We saw him heading straight toward the mountains. But why?
 
Nihilist penguin?

» Could he just have had enough? «
 
Here he is, heading off into the interior of the vast continent. With 5,000 kilometers ahead of him, he is heading toward certain death. Could he have just gone crazy because he has had enough of his colony?
 
Reference: 

Thursday, January 29, 2026

2026 Market Forecast: S&P 500, Crude, Notes, Gold, and Bitcoin | Bill Sarubbi

US Stock Market Outlook and Q1 Correction
The equity markets appear to be nearing a significant peak, with a forecasted correction for the S&P 500 expected to intensify during the first week of February. Despite this initial volatility, the year-end target for the S&P remains 10% to 12% higher than current levels around 6,950. 
 
In November, the 15-month midterm election cycle will be the primary rally driver. 
 
Sarubbi's market summary indicates a Q1 correction in the S&P, with the S&P expected to rise by 10%-12% in 2026. This will be followed by a trading range in Q2 and Q3, and a rally in Q4. November marks the beginning of the 15-month mid-term election year cycle. Oil is anticipated to rally, and foreign markets are projected to extend their outperformance.
 
Regarding the US stock market, there is a short-term cycle that runs into the last week of January, which expires just as a weak short-term cycle begins in the first week of February. February and March are likely to be weak. There will be a Q1 correction, likely starting in February, with Q2 and Q3 forming a trading range. Q4 in any year has been bullish, and the 15 months beginning with the mid-term elections have been one of the most bullish time intervals.
 
On the topic of bubbles, Sarubbi notes that they usually do not occur in years ending in a 6. Most crises have occurred in the autumn of years ending in 7 or 8. For instance, on August 15, 1971, Nixon closed the gold window. On March 31, 1980, Carter signed the Monetary Control Act, which enabled the Fed to monetize any paper. With few limits on what can be monetized, the Fed could theoretically inflate the currency to infinity. Consequently, there is no limit to price increases.
 
Bill Sarubbi expects the S&P 500 in 2026 to unfold in three phases: a weak first quarter, a sideways trading range through the spring and summer, and a powerful rally in the fourth quarter driven by the historically potent 15-month midterm election cycle.
 
2026 Composite Cycle for the S&P 500.
 
Sarubbi's "Composite Cycle for the S&P 500 in 2026" begins at a high point in January 2026, followed by a general downward trend with minor oscillations through February and March. It experiences a modest recovery in April, and further undulations downward through late June. After a recovery into late-August early-September, a more pronounced decline occurs into a late-September early-October low of the year. From this trough, the US stock market ascends sharply through November and December 2026, continuing its upward trajectory into January 2027.
 

Above is the DJIA's expected return of all years ending in 6 that have also been 2 years past an election since 1885. Keep in mind that the 15-month period that follows the mid-term elections has been one of the most bullish time intervals. It appears logical to expect a Q1 correction followed by a trading range in the first 3 quarters of 2026.  
 
Long-Term Cycles and Inflationary Pressures
Current economic conditions mirror the 54-year cycle last seen in 1972, characterized by persistent price inflation, social unrest, and rising interest rates. This environment of "excess liquidity" is evidenced by record-breaking prices for collectibles and comic books. Furthermore, the removal of the gold window in 1971 and subsequent monetary acts have removed traditional limits on currency monetization, explaining gold’s ascent toward the $5,000 mark.

Sector Rotation and Technology Moderation
A primary theme for 2026 is the transition of leadership away from the "Magnificent Seven" and toward undervalued sectors. While technology will remain relevant, leadership is shifting to names like Intel and Micron rather than the overextended market leaders. 
 

Capital is expected to flow into healthcare, base materials, and emerging markets, the latter of which are breaking a 15-year relative downtrend against US equities.

Bullish Outlook for Energy and Oil
Oil presents a compelling "witches' brew" of bullish indicators: strong technical support between $50 and $55, extreme bearish sentiment, and favorable seasonal cycles. 
 
 Monthly Crude Oil Cycle.

A rally is anticipated through June, with stocks like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Schlumberger (SLB) showing classic technical breakout patterns. This sector stands to benefit most from the rotation of funds out of high-priced mega-cap tech.

Fixed Income, Gold, and Bitcoin
Fixed income remains unattractive, with the 10-year note facing strong seasonal headwinds in March. 
 
10-Year Notes monthly histogram.
 

US Notes are at the start of one of the most bearish weeks in any year. Over the last 43 years, price has fallen 81% of the time from the 19th through the 25th. See the daily histogram of expected return for December above. 
 
Gold.

Gold has exceeded recent objectives but is entering a seasonally weak period through March, with a projected short-term top near February 20. The gold cycle has peaked and the gold price has given an unmistakable signal. First, the rate of change became unsustainable. Then, in only 2 days, price has retraced 50% of its move from the October low. 
 
 
The gold cycle has peaked and the gold price has given an unmistakable signal. First, the rate of change became unsustainable. Then, in only 2 days, price has retraced 50% of its move from the October low. It must fall to $4050 to retrace 38.2% of its entire 2025 move. The peak occurs on a day when a new Fed chairman has been announced. The new Fed chief has indicated that he will not continue to inflate the currency. The monthly cycle does not show a meaningful low until July.  
 
 Bitcoin.

Conversely, Bitcoin continues to adhere closely to its cyclical data, suggesting a potential rally toward the $110,000 to $115,000 range by April.

 

See also: 
Bill Sarubbi (b. 1949), writing under the pen name Bill Meridian, is an American financial strategist, author, and software developer who pioneered the integration of mundane astrology into institutional investment. After earning both a BS in Banking and an MBA in Corporate Finance from New York University in 1972, he launched a dual career on Wall Street while beginning his formal astrological studies under Charles A. Jayne, Jr., one of the leading astrologers of the last century. Their teacher-student relationship and friendship lasted until Jayne’s death in 1985. Sarubbi transformed the field in 1983 by designing AstroAnalyst, the first software to apply computer processing to financial astrology. His technical innovations—including efficiency tests and composite cycles—remain foundational to modern platforms such as Timing Solution. Parallel to his financial pursuits, he spent seven years in New York City training as a bioenergetic therapist under Dr. John Pierrakos. From 1990 to 2004, Sarubbi was based in Abu Dhabi (UAE), where he served as a Technology Fund Manager and Strategist for the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA). During his tenure at the sovereign wealth fund, he also sat on its Currency Hedging Committee. Throughout this period, he maintained his pen identity as "Bill Meridian," advising legendary trader Frankie Joe and authoring the mundane and stocks column for Dell Horoscope for 30 years. A certified expert in Uranian and Vibrational Astrology (Hamburg School), Sarubbi has authored several definitive texts, including 'Planetary Stock Trading' and 'The Predictive Power of Eclipse Paths.' Since 2000, he has operated Cycles Research Investments from Vienna, Austria, providing market advisory and fund management services that blend rigorous economic cycle analysis with astrological forecasting. A member of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles (FSC) since 1972, he currently serves as a member of its board of directors.

Tuesday, January 27, 2026

February Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

According to the specific midterm data (1950–2022) indicated by the dotted lines on the chart below, the market typically begins with weakness, hitting an initial seasonal low on February 5 (Thu) (Trading Day 4) before attempting a choppy recovery.
 
 
This leads to a secondary dip around February 9 (Mon) just before a historical mid-month surge. This peak typically culminates on February 18 (Wed) (Presidents' Day February 16 (Mon), OpEx February 20 (Fri)). 
 
Following this peak, the "February Reversal" takes hold. In midterm years, the market typically enters a sideways trend, struggling to sustain gains. Conversely, the 21-year average shows a steadier decline that carries the market toward its final monthly low on February 27 (Fri).
 
Reference: 
  
DJIA eyes 9-month win streak: Historically, 2-month
follow-up gains are 100% certain, averaging +5.34%
 

Unraveling the Hurst Cycles Harmony of the US Stock Market | David Hickson

A Hurst cycles analysis essentially functions as a fairly complex puzzle in which every cycle must fit precisely into place, primarily because the cycle troughs must be synchronized whenever possible. If we were to position Hurst’s classic 9-year nominal cycle trough in 2020, we would produce a rather unbalanced cyclical analysis. Consequently, the 2018 placement is, in my opinion, a much more appropriate position for this nine-year cycle trough. We have had very regular nine-year cycles beating from the trough in 1998, continuing through the 2009 trough to the 2018 trough. Following this progression, the next nine-year cycle trough is expected to occur in approximately 2027.

S&P 500 (monthly candles), 1997-2039: 9-year (red) and 54-month (orange) cycles.
 
The classic 9-year model, tracking a recent average 10.1-year wavelength, identifies major troughs in 2002, 2009, and 2018; it dismisses the deeper March 2020 low as Fundamental Interaction to preserve the model's harmonic ratios. Currently, this model places the market in the bearish third of three 18-month cycles following an October 2022 trough, forecasting a significant decline into a synchronized 9-year nest of lows by mid-2027.
 
S&P 500 (daily candles), November 2025 to September 2026: The orange dashed 
Composite Model Line (CML) is a summation of all underlying cycles of the 9-year model:
Current nominal 20-week cycle = 16.9 weeks; 80-day cycle = 57 days; 40-day cycle = 31 days; 20-day cycle = 15.4 days. 

Conversely, the 7-year model utilizes a 14-year/7-year rhythm visible in the 2002, 2009, 2016, and 2022 troughs. By phasing the October 2022 low as a major 14-year trough, this model explains recent persistent strength and suggests the market is in the first of three 18-month cycles, implying a more bullish structural backdrop. Despite these long-term differences, both models converge on a near-term projection: an early 2026 peak followed by a corrective move into an 18-month cycle trough around June or July 2026. 
 
S&P 500 (daily candles), April 2025 to September 2026: The orange dashed Composite 
Model Line (CML) is a summation of all underlying cycles of the 7-year model:
Current nominal 20-week cycle = 13.6 weeks; 80-day cycle = 56.5 days; 40-day cycle = 28 days; 20-day cycle = 13.8 days. 

S&P 500 (daily candles), December 2025 to February 2026, and orange dashed 7-year model CML.
 
 Nominal 9-Year Cycle vs Actual 7-Year Cycle.
 
Both models recognize a 40-week cycle trough on November 21, 2025, and the 80-day cycle trough on January 21. A peak is expected in late-Q1 early-Q2, to be followed by a significant mid-year correction into June-July.
 
 
See also:

China, Russia Must Manage 'Orderly' US Decline | Huang J. and S. Karaganov

The year 2026 opened with a series of maneuvers by the United States that continue to unsettle the global landscape. Beneath the surface of international diplomacy, powerful undercurrents are surging. Even as the aftershocks of the military strike on Venezuela linger, Donald Trump has turned his sights toward Greenland, alternating between economic buyouts and martial threats.

» The Americans are withdrawing to the Western Hemisphere.  They are transitioning into a "normal" regional power. «               1941 political cartoon by Theodor Seuss Geisel (Dr. Seuss) satirizing "America First" isolationism. An elderly woman in an "America First" sweater reads "Adolf the Wolf" to two horrified children, remarking: "...and the Wolf chewed up the children and spit out their bones... but those were foreign children, and it didn't really matter."
 » The Americans are withdrawing to the Western Hemisphere. 
They are transitioning into a "normal" regional power. « 
1941 political cartoon by Theodor Seuss Geisel (Dr. Seuss) satirizing "America First" isolationism. An elderly woman in an "America First" sweater reads "Adolf the Wolf" to two horrified children, remarking: "...and the Wolf chewed up the children and spit out their bones... but those were foreign children, and it didn't really matter."
This predatory posture—where even allies are not spared—raises a fundamental question: Is this the brute assertion of a military hegemon, or the final, desperate thrashings of a superpower in decline? As the rift between the US and Europe widens over the Greenland dispute, and the very foundations of the NATO alliance tremble, what kind of shockwaves will the global order sustain?

Huang Jing: Regarding the abduction of Venezuelan President Maduro and the First Lady—an act of blatant violent aggression—how do you foresee its impact?

Sergey Karaganov: To be clear, we are still operating without full transparency regarding the facts; the abduction is peculiar, appearing almost like a choreographed performance. While clearly the work of US security apparatuses, their local facilitators remain in the shadowsHowever, the trend is undeniable: Trump and the US are attempting to pivot back to the Western Hemisphere as they retreat from global leadership. This process began 15 to 17 years ago, though it went largely unremarked by the masses. 

Huang: We only truly grasped it about 15 years ago.

Karaganov: Exactly. Circa 2006 or 2007. It was an internal discussion then, but the trajectory was visible. Notably, when Obama took office, his instinct was an "America First" strategy, but he was constrained by the globalist factions surrounding him. 
The kidnapping of Maduro and the "piracy" of seizing oil tankers are criminal acts. Yet, there is a "silver lining": the Americans are withdrawing to the Western Hemisphere. They are transitioning into a "normal" regional power rather than a global hegemon, shedding the pretense of world leadership. It is a double-edged sword. While we must condemn the incredible crime of abducting an elected leader, we are seeing a strategic retreat. For years, I have argued that we must create the conditions to help the US exit its global role—without triggering a world war.
 
» US decline isn't the problem; the "disorder" of that decline is the catastrophe. « Aggression as a symptom of decay: POTUS claiming US used classified "Disruptor"  weapon to paralyze Venezuelan defense systems in order to hijack Nicolás Maduro.
» US decline isn't the problem; the "disorder" of that decline is the catastrophe. «
Aggression as a symptom of decay: POTUS claiming US used classified "Disruptor" 
weapon to paralyze Venezuelan defense systems in order to hijack Nicolás Maduro.
 
Huang: Agreed. I recall your work on "Disorder," suggesting that a chaotic US decline is a threat to us all. This hegemonic fatigue began because the US simply could not sustain the post-1991 international system. You cite 2006; I would argue the definitive cracks appeared by 2008.

Karaganov: The decline of Western hegemony actually dates back to the 1960s. The signs were there, but ignored. When the USSR achieved nuclear parity, the foundation of a 500-year-old Western dominance began to crumble. After the Soviet collapse, the West—and the US specifically—fell into a state of "euphoria," believing they had reversed the tide of history. This lasted barely 15 years before Russia began to reconstitute its position and China emerged as a titan. Blinded by their "victory," the American elite made massive strategic blunders. They essentially subsidized China's rise, naively believing that capitalism would inevitably lead to a "democracy" that would act as a US satellite. When reality failed to meet their visions, they doubled down on failed invasions—Afghanistan, Iraq. By 2008, the internal decision to begin a long-term withdrawal had already taken root.
 
» Russia and China should work together to facilitate an orderly decline for the United States. This is in everyone's interest, including Washington's. «   August 2021, managing 'disordered' collapse: US troops at Kabul Airport use rifles to deter Afghan civilians attempting to flee during the withdrawal.
» Russia and China should work together to facilitate an orderly decline for
the United States. This is in everyone's interest, including Washington's. « 
 August 2021, managing 'disordered' collapse: US troops at Kabul Airport use
rifles to deter Afghan civilians attempting to flee during the withdrawal.
 
Huang: I agree, though I’d add a nuance: China’s rise wasn't merely a gift from the US. It was the result of correct internal policies and a desire to integrate into the global system to reform it from within. The US "vision" of a peaceful evolution into a Western-style state was indeed a profound miscalculation.

Karaganov: I don't disagree, but consider this: China’s development was facilitated by the Soviet/Russian security umbrella. Even when China was militarily weaker, the US never dared a direct strike. Furthermore, the US committed the ultimate strategic error. Through their actions, they pushed Russia and China—natural neighbors—into an unbreakable de facto alliance. Over the last 15 years, this "quasi-alliance" has effectively doubled the strategic weight of both nations. It is an monumental failure by Western competitors.
 
» The US will never come to the rescue of Europe. « 
 
Huang: From a historical perspective, we remember how the USSR helped build China’s industrial base. Yet the USSR also suffered from overexpansion—Afghanistan being the fatal error—which led to the fragile US-China cooperation of the 1980s to contain Moscow.

Karaganov: Indeed. But it wasn't just overexpansion; it was arrogance. Khrushchev’s arrogance toward Mao in the 50s and the refusal to aid China’s nuclear program were grave miscalculations.

Huang: Yet China succeeded regardless.

Karaganov: Yes, and that autonomous development secured China’s strategic autonomy for decades. Had we helped then, the rapprochement with Nixon might never have been necessary. History would be unrecognizable. But today, the US is committing the greatest error of the modern era. Post-1991, they mistook their moment for permanent "Globalist" dominion. They tried to export "universal values" through Color Revolutions and the Arab Spring—all of which failed. Now, they are retreating into the Western Hemisphere because they must, not because they want to. 
  
Huang: As you famously said: US decline isn't the problem; the "disorder" of that decline is the catastrophe. Does the invasion of Venezuela reflect a managed exit or a chaotic one?

Karaganov: Let’s put it this way: Russia and China should work together to facilitate an orderly decline for the United States. This is in everyone's interest, including Washington's. The US was an "accidental" global hegemon. Before WWII, they were an economic powerhouse but a geopolitical non-factor. They became the world leader with very little capital investment because Europe collapsed and the USSR was exhausted.

Now, as the "Global South" and China rise, the West realizes it can no longer control the very system of free trade and international law it created. So, they have begun to sabotage their own system—using sanctions and breaking trade rules—because they can no longer win by the old rules. In Ukraine, the Biden administration initially thought they could isolate Russia from Europe. They succeeded in creating a rift, but now that they see Russia is willing to escalate—even to the nuclear level—they are looking for the exit. Trump is vocal about withdrawal, but Biden started the process. I saw it myself: Biden's 2022 New York Times piece, where he set "red lines" for the US (no direct entry, no regime change), was the first signal of the American retreat.
 
» The source of all ills and evil in the history of humanity. «  Zelensky, Starmer, Macron, and Merz, December 8, 2025.
 » The source of all ills and evil in the history of humanity. «

 Zelensky, Starmer, Macron, and Merz, December 8, 2025.

Huang: You warned the Americans in 2012: "You are pushing us into a corner, and you will end up in one yourselves." In 2020, you argued that the goal wasn't just defeating Ukraine, but dismantling the Western international system itself—a system used as a tool for hypocritical hegemony. Do you still stand by that?

Karaganov: Absolutely. And we are succeeding. By raising the stakes, we have essentially pushed the US out of the war. We made them realize that Russia would risk nuclear conflict over Europe. Biden never explicitly promised to fight for Europe if it were attacked; he only spoke of "support." Now, Russia’s objective is to break the will of the European elites. Europe has historically been the source of the world's greatest troubles—colonialism, racism, world wars. They are currently drifting toward a Third World War. Our strategic long-term goal should be to push Europe to the periphery of the global stage, creating systemic conditions where their current "sinister" elites are rendered obsolete.

Huang: On that point, you and Trump seem to be in total agreement.

Karaganov: (Laughs) I said it first.
 
[Continue from 27:00 in the video above—highly insightful and well worth the watch.] 
 
[中俄应该携手合作,帮助美国实现“有序衰落.”]
 
"How can you discuss anything with Kaja Kallas? Neither we will ever discuss anything with her,  nor will the Americans, and this is obvious. We can only wait until she leaves," Peskov said.
"How can you discuss anything with Kaja Kallas? Neither we will ever discuss anything with her, 
nor will the Americans, and this is obvious. We can only wait until she leaves," Peskov said.

Huang Jing is a Distinguished Professor at Shanghai International Studies University and a globally recognized authority on Chinese politics and US-Asia relations. Formerly a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and Director at the National University of Singapore, he specializes in the US-China-Russia strategic triangle. He is a prolific author and advisor known for his realist analysis of great power competition and global governance.
Sergey Karaganov is the Honorary Chairman of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy and a presidential advisor to both Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin. He currently serves as the Academic Supervisor of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics. A primary architect of the "Greater Eurasia" concept, he is a leading realist thinker on Russian grand strategy and the transformation of the global order.