Friday, January 30, 2026

ICE and the Rise of Trump's Meta-Palantir-X Police State | Stew Peters

There are individuals claiming the mantle of patriots, freedom fighters, or "America First" advocates who are actively cheering for ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) and Border Patrol raids within the American interior—cities like Minneapolis, Minnesota. It is worth noting that these operations have demonstrably failed to usher in the promised mass deportations.

 » Testing ground for implementing new technologies. «

We recognized from the outset that these raids are not truly about mass deportations, nor are they designed to remove illegal invaders. If that were the objective, the military would be in charge of the operation. Instead, what we are witnessing is a federal law enforcement maneuver intended to habituate the American public to the presence of heavily armed state agents patrolling neighborhood streets. These operations serve as a testing ground for implementing new technologies—specifically Artificial Intelligence—designed to transform this country into a police state and a surveillance apparatus that would surpass the reach of the Soviet Union's secret police.

This surveillance state is being constructed to facilitate the tracking, policing, and even the extrajudicial killing of American citizens who find themselves in opposition to the government and its financial benefactors. We are now seeing video evidence that confirms our prior warnings. Recently, footage went viral showing Border Patrol agents in Illinois wearing Meta-produced AI glasses. Agents used these devices to photograph protesters, presumably to integrate their images into federal databases and populate their "Palantir" profiles.

» Weapons of choice against the American people. «
 
While Meta publicly claims these glasses lack facial recognition, college students have already modified the exact same hardware to scan the internet and identify individuals instantly. If twenty-year-olds can achieve this, the capabilities available to the engineers at Meta—and by extension, the Department of Homeland Security—are far more profound. Given Mark Zuckerberg’s newfound alignment with Donald Trump, the Meta Ray-Bans worn by federal agents clashing with protesters are capable of much more than simple photography. It appears that Meta, the federal government, and various "Big Tech" AI corporations—including Palantir and X—are utilizing domestic chaos to field-test the very technologies and implementation methods they intend to permanentize. Welcome to the AI surveillance state; it has already arrived.

[...] We are entering a new era because the public is, in many ways, inviting it. We are seeing the rise of federal "robo-cops" equipped with AI sunglasses and mobile devices linked to facial recognition networks, scanning cities as if participating in a simulated urban warfare environment. Their priority is not the deportation of undocumented immigrants—noting that only approximately 350,000 were removed in 2025—but rather the installation of a police state. By fostering a chaotic and dangerous environment, they encourage citizens to plead for more agents and more control. The concept of mass deportation is being used as a rhetorical device to gain public consent for constant surveillance.
 
We have recently learned from a source within Turning Point USA that members of Charlie Kirk’s security team were wearing AI glasses, similar to those used by the DHS, to scan crowds and coordinate with drone swarms and remote-viewing systems. This technology is being utilized to target and eliminate Americans, and the cases of Alex Pretti and Charlie Kirk are merely the beginning. We are witnessing the birth of a system where constant scanning and identification are the weapons of choice against the American people.
 
 
 
See also:

Can Penguins Go Insane? | Werner Herzog

These penguins are all heading to the open water, but one of them caught our eye: the one in the center. He would neither go toward the feeding grounds at the edge of the ice nor return to the colony. We saw him heading straight toward the mountains. But why?
 
Nihilist penguin?

» Could he just have had enough? «
 
Here he is, heading off into the interior of the vast continent. With 5,000 kilometers ahead of him, he is heading toward certain death. Could he have just gone crazy because he has had enough of his colony?
 
Reference: 

Thursday, January 29, 2026

2026 Market Forecast: S&P 500, Crude, Notes, Gold, and Bitcoin | Bill Sarubbi

US Stock Market Outlook and Q1 Correction
The equity markets appear to be nearing a significant peak, with a forecasted correction for the S&P 500 expected to intensify during the first week of February. Despite this initial volatility, the year-end target for the S&P remains 10% to 12% higher than current levels around 6,950. 
 
In November, the 15-month midterm election cycle will be the primary rally driver. 
 
2026 Composite Cycle for the S&P 500.

The year is expected to unfold in three phases: a weak first quarter, a sideways trading range through the spring and summer, and a powerful rally in the fourth quarter driven by the historically potent 15-month midterm election cycle.

Long-Term Cycles and Inflationary Pressures
Current economic conditions mirror the 54-year cycle last seen in 1972, characterized by persistent price inflation, social unrest, and rising interest rates. This environment of "excess liquidity" is evidenced by record-breaking prices for collectibles and comic books. Furthermore, the removal of the gold window in 1971 and subsequent monetary acts have removed traditional limits on currency monetization, explaining gold’s ascent toward the $5,000 mark.

Sector Rotation and Technology Moderation
A primary theme for 2026 is the transition of leadership away from the "Magnificent Seven" and toward undervalued sectors. While technology will remain relevant, leadership is shifting to names like Intel and Micron rather than the overextended market leaders. 
 

Capital is expected to flow into healthcare, base materials, and emerging markets, the latter of which are breaking a 15-year relative downtrend against US equities.

Bullish Outlook for Energy and Oil
Oil presents a compelling "witches' brew" of bullish indicators: strong technical support between $50 and $55, extreme bearish sentiment, and favorable seasonal cycles. 
 
 Monthly Crude Oil Cycle.

A rally is anticipated through June, with stocks like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Schlumberger (SLB) showing classic technical breakout patterns. This sector stands to benefit most from the rotation of funds out of high-priced mega-cap tech.

Fixed Income, Gold, and Bitcoin
Fixed income remains unattractive, with the 10-year note facing strong seasonal headwinds in March. 
 
10-Year Notes monthly histogram.
 
Gold.

Gold has exceeded recent objectives but is entering a seasonally weak period through March, with a projected short-term top near February 20. 
 
 Bitcoin.

Conversely, Bitcoin continues to adhere closely to its cyclical data, suggesting a potential rally toward the $110,000 to $115,000 range by April.

Tuesday, January 27, 2026

February Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

According to the specific midterm data (1950–2022) indicated by the dotted lines on the chart below, the market typically begins with weakness, hitting an initial seasonal low on February 5 (Thu) (Trading Day 4) before attempting a choppy recovery.
 
 
This leads to a secondary dip around February 9 (Mon) just before a historical mid-month surge. This peak typically culminates on February 18 (Wed) (Presidents' Day February 16 (Mon), OpEx February 20 (Fri)). 
 
Following this peak, the "February Reversal" takes hold. In midterm years, the market typically enters a sideways trend, struggling to sustain gains. Conversely, the 21-year average shows a steadier decline that carries the market toward its final monthly low on February 27 (Fri).
 
Reference: 
  
DJIA eyes 9-month win streak: Historically, 2-month
follow-up gains are 100% certain, averaging +5.34%
 

Unraveling the Hurst Cycles Harmony of the US Stock Market | David Hickson

A Hurst cycles analysis essentially functions as a fairly complex puzzle in which every cycle must fit precisely into place, primarily because the cycle troughs must be synchronized whenever possible. If we were to position Hurst’s classic 9-year nominal cycle trough in 2020, we would produce a rather unbalanced cyclical analysis. Consequently, the 2018 placement is, in my opinion, a much more appropriate position for this nine-year cycle trough. We have had very regular nine-year cycles beating from the trough in 1998, continuing through the 2009 trough to the 2018 trough. Following this progression, the next nine-year cycle trough is expected to occur in approximately 2027.

S&P 500 (monthly candles), 1997-2039: 9-year (red) and 54-month (orange) cycles.
 
The classic 9-year model, tracking a recent average 10.1-year wavelength, identifies major troughs in 2002, 2009, and 2018; it dismisses the deeper March 2020 low as Fundamental Interaction to preserve the model's harmonic ratios. Currently, this model places the market in the bearish third of three 18-month cycles following an October 2022 trough, forecasting a significant decline into a synchronized 9-year nest of lows by mid-2027.
 
S&P 500 (daily candles), November 2025 to September 2026: The orange dashed 
Composite Model Line (CML) is a summation of all underlying cycles of the 9-year model:
Current nominal 20-week cycle = 16.9 weeks; 80-day cycle = 57 days; 40-day cycle = 31 days; 20-day cycle = 15.4 days. 

Conversely, the 7-year model utilizes a 14-year/7-year rhythm visible in the 2002, 2009, 2016, and 2022 troughs. By phasing the October 2022 low as a major 14-year trough, this model explains recent persistent strength and suggests the market is in the first of three 18-month cycles, implying a more bullish structural backdrop. Despite these long-term differences, both models converge on a near-term projection: an early 2026 peak followed by a corrective move into an 18-month cycle trough around June or July 2026. 
 
S&P 500 (daily candles), April 2025 to September 2026: The orange dashed Composite 
Model Line (CML) is a summation of all underlying cycles of the 7-year model:
Current nominal 20-week cycle = 13.6 weeks; 80-day cycle = 56.5 days; 40-day cycle = 28 days; 20-day cycle = 13.8 days. 

S&P 500 (daily candles), December 2025 to February 2026, and orange dashed 7-year model CML.
 
 Nominal 9-Year Cycle vs Actual 7-Year Cycle.
 
Both models recognize a 40-week cycle trough on November 21, 2025, and the 80-day cycle trough on January 21. A peak is expected in late-Q1 early-Q2, to be followed by a significant mid-year correction into June-July.
 
 
See also:

China, Russia Must Manage 'Orderly' US Decline | Huang J. and S. Karaganov

The year 2026 opened with a series of maneuvers by the United States that continue to unsettle the global landscape. Beneath the surface of international diplomacy, powerful undercurrents are surging. Even as the aftershocks of the military strike on Venezuela linger, Donald Trump has turned his sights toward Greenland, alternating between economic buyouts and martial threats.

» The Americans are withdrawing to the Western Hemisphere.  They are transitioning into a "normal" regional power. «               1941 political cartoon by Theodor Seuss Geisel (Dr. Seuss) satirizing "America First" isolationism. An elderly woman in an "America First" sweater reads "Adolf the Wolf" to two horrified children, remarking: "...and the Wolf chewed up the children and spit out their bones... but those were foreign children, and it didn't really matter."
 » The Americans are withdrawing to the Western Hemisphere. 
They are transitioning into a "normal" regional power. « 
1941 political cartoon by Theodor Seuss Geisel (Dr. Seuss) satirizing "America First" isolationism. An elderly woman in an "America First" sweater reads "Adolf the Wolf" to two horrified children, remarking: "...and the Wolf chewed up the children and spit out their bones... but those were foreign children, and it didn't really matter."
This predatory posture—where even allies are not spared—raises a fundamental question: Is this the brute assertion of a military hegemon, or the final, desperate thrashings of a superpower in decline? As the rift between the US and Europe widens over the Greenland dispute, and the very foundations of the NATO alliance tremble, what kind of shockwaves will the global order sustain?

Huang Jing: Regarding the abduction of Venezuelan President Maduro and the First Lady—an act of blatant violent aggression—how do you foresee its impact?

Sergey Karaganov: To be clear, we are still operating without full transparency regarding the facts; the abduction is peculiar, appearing almost like a choreographed performance. While clearly the work of US security apparatuses, their local facilitators remain in the shadowsHowever, the trend is undeniable: Trump and the US are attempting to pivot back to the Western Hemisphere as they retreat from global leadership. This process began 15 to 17 years ago, though it went largely unremarked by the masses. 

Huang: We only truly grasped it about 15 years ago.

Karaganov: Exactly. Circa 2006 or 2007. It was an internal discussion then, but the trajectory was visible. Notably, when Obama took office, his instinct was an "America First" strategy, but he was constrained by the globalist factions surrounding him. 
The kidnapping of Maduro and the "piracy" of seizing oil tankers are criminal acts. Yet, there is a "silver lining": the Americans are withdrawing to the Western Hemisphere. They are transitioning into a "normal" regional power rather than a global hegemon, shedding the pretense of world leadership. It is a double-edged sword. While we must condemn the incredible crime of abducting an elected leader, we are seeing a strategic retreat. For years, I have argued that we must create the conditions to help the US exit its global role—without triggering a world war.
 
» US decline isn't the problem; the "disorder" of that decline is the catastrophe. « Aggression as a symptom of decay: POTUS claiming US used classified "Disruptor"  weapon to paralyze Venezuelan defense systems in order to hijack Nicolás Maduro.
» US decline isn't the problem; the "disorder" of that decline is the catastrophe. «
Aggression as a symptom of decay: POTUS claiming US used classified "Disruptor" 
weapon to paralyze Venezuelan defense systems in order to hijack Nicolás Maduro.
 
Huang: Agreed. I recall your work on "Disorder," suggesting that a chaotic US decline is a threat to us all. This hegemonic fatigue began because the US simply could not sustain the post-1991 international system. You cite 2006; I would argue the definitive cracks appeared by 2008.

Karaganov: The decline of Western hegemony actually dates back to the 1960s. The signs were there, but ignored. When the USSR achieved nuclear parity, the foundation of a 500-year-old Western dominance began to crumble. After the Soviet collapse, the West—and the US specifically—fell into a state of "euphoria," believing they had reversed the tide of history. This lasted barely 15 years before Russia began to reconstitute its position and China emerged as a titan. Blinded by their "victory," the American elite made massive strategic blunders. They essentially subsidized China's rise, naively believing that capitalism would inevitably lead to a "democracy" that would act as a US satellite. When reality failed to meet their visions, they doubled down on failed invasions—Afghanistan, Iraq. By 2008, the internal decision to begin a long-term withdrawal had already taken root.
 
» Russia and China should work together to facilitate an orderly decline for the United States. This is in everyone's interest, including Washington's. «   August 2021, managing 'disordered' collapse: US troops at Kabul Airport use rifles to deter Afghan civilians attempting to flee during the withdrawal.
» Russia and China should work together to facilitate an orderly decline for
the United States. This is in everyone's interest, including Washington's. « 
 August 2021, managing 'disordered' collapse: US troops at Kabul Airport use
rifles to deter Afghan civilians attempting to flee during the withdrawal.
 
Huang: I agree, though I’d add a nuance: China’s rise wasn't merely a gift from the US. It was the result of correct internal policies and a desire to integrate into the global system to reform it from within. The US "vision" of a peaceful evolution into a Western-style state was indeed a profound miscalculation.

Karaganov: I don't disagree, but consider this: China’s development was facilitated by the Soviet/Russian security umbrella. Even when China was militarily weaker, the US never dared a direct strike. Furthermore, the US committed the ultimate strategic error. Through their actions, they pushed Russia and China—natural neighbors—into an unbreakable de facto alliance. Over the last 15 years, this "quasi-alliance" has effectively doubled the strategic weight of both nations. It is an monumental failure by Western competitors.
 
» The US will never come to the rescue of Europe. « 
 
Huang: From a historical perspective, we remember how the USSR helped build China’s industrial base. Yet the USSR also suffered from overexpansion—Afghanistan being the fatal error—which led to the fragile US-China cooperation of the 1980s to contain Moscow.

Karaganov: Indeed. But it wasn't just overexpansion; it was arrogance. Khrushchev’s arrogance toward Mao in the 50s and the refusal to aid China’s nuclear program were grave miscalculations.

Huang: Yet China succeeded regardless.

Karaganov: Yes, and that autonomous development secured China’s strategic autonomy for decades. Had we helped then, the rapprochement with Nixon might never have been necessary. History would be unrecognizable. But today, the US is committing the greatest error of the modern era. Post-1991, they mistook their moment for permanent "Globalist" dominion. They tried to export "universal values" through Color Revolutions and the Arab Spring—all of which failed. Now, they are retreating into the Western Hemisphere because they must, not because they want to. 
  
Huang: As you famously said: US decline isn't the problem; the "disorder" of that decline is the catastrophe. Does the invasion of Venezuela reflect a managed exit or a chaotic one?

Karaganov: Let’s put it this way: Russia and China should work together to facilitate an orderly decline for the United States. This is in everyone's interest, including Washington's. The US was an "accidental" global hegemon. Before WWII, they were an economic powerhouse but a geopolitical non-factor. They became the world leader with very little capital investment because Europe collapsed and the USSR was exhausted.

Now, as the "Global South" and China rise, the West realizes it can no longer control the very system of free trade and international law it created. So, they have begun to sabotage their own system—using sanctions and breaking trade rules—because they can no longer win by the old rules. In Ukraine, the Biden administration initially thought they could isolate Russia from Europe. They succeeded in creating a rift, but now that they see Russia is willing to escalate—even to the nuclear level—they are looking for the exit. Trump is vocal about withdrawal, but Biden started the process. I saw it myself: Biden's 2022 New York Times piece, where he set "red lines" for the US (no direct entry, no regime change), was the first signal of the American retreat.
 
» The source of all ills and evil in the history of humanity. «  Zelensky, Starmer, Macron, and Merz, December 8, 2025.
 » The source of all ills and evil in the history of humanity. «

 Zelensky, Starmer, Macron, and Merz, December 8, 2025.

Huang: You warned the Americans in 2012: "You are pushing us into a corner, and you will end up in one yourselves." In 2020, you argued that the goal wasn't just defeating Ukraine, but dismantling the Western international system itself—a system used as a tool for hypocritical hegemony. Do you still stand by that?

Karaganov: Absolutely. And we are succeeding. By raising the stakes, we have essentially pushed the US out of the war. We made them realize that Russia would risk nuclear conflict over Europe. Biden never explicitly promised to fight for Europe if it were attacked; he only spoke of "support." Now, Russia’s objective is to break the will of the European elites. Europe has historically been the source of the world's greatest troubles—colonialism, racism, world wars. They are currently drifting toward a Third World War. Our strategic long-term goal should be to push Europe to the periphery of the global stage, creating systemic conditions where their current "sinister" elites are rendered obsolete.

Huang: On that point, you and Trump seem to be in total agreement.

Karaganov: (Laughs) I said it first.
 
[Continue from 27:00 in the video above—highly insightful and well worth the watch.] 
 
[中俄应该携手合作,帮助美国实现“有序衰落.”]
 
"How can you discuss anything with Kaja Kallas? Neither we will ever discuss anything with her,  nor will the Americans, and this is obvious. We can only wait until she leaves," Peskov said.
"How can you discuss anything with Kaja Kallas? Neither we will ever discuss anything with her, 
nor will the Americans, and this is obvious. We can only wait until she leaves," Peskov said.

Huang Jing is a Distinguished Professor at Shanghai International Studies University and a globally recognized authority on Chinese politics and US-Asia relations. Formerly a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and Director at the National University of Singapore, he specializes in the US-China-Russia strategic triangle. He is a prolific author and advisor known for his realist analysis of great power competition and global governance.
Sergey Karaganov is the Honorary Chairman of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy and a presidential advisor to both Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin. He currently serves as the Academic Supervisor of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics. A primary architect of the "Greater Eurasia" concept, he is a leading realist thinker on Russian grand strategy and the transformation of the global order.

Monday, January 26, 2026

Silver Squeeze Blasts-Out Last Short Funds—Watch Grains | Oscar Carboni

I started in the silver pits as an 18-year-old kid back in 1982. For decades, Silver was stuck in a range between $7.50 and $21, even while other metals soared. While Gold moved from $265 to $4,000, and Copper and Palladium saw massive gains, Silver remained artificially suppressed.

» You must be careful not to "plow in" at these levels«
Silver (daily chart).

For 40 years, major funds and big banks have held Silver down by selling it short and selling calls against it to collect premiums. They did this successfully for four decades until Silver finally got noticed by the broader public. What you are witnessing today is a massive, forced short squeeze. The funds that held short positions for 40 years finally got caught and are being forced to exit.
 
Caution in the Metals Sector
While the rally is exciting, you must be careful not to "plow in" at these levels. If you missed the initial move, you missed it. At $117, the volatility is extreme. Every $1 move in Silver represents a $5,000 gain or loss on a single lot. This looks like capitulation—the final "blow-off" top where the last remaining shorts are blasted out.

Gold (daily chart).
 
 Platinum (daily chart).
 
Copper (daily chart). 
 
Looking at the broader sector, Gold continues to trend within its reliable channels, and Platinum and Palladium are also moving higher. Copper had a fantastic rally today as well, moving at $250 per point.
 
The Next Opportunity: Grains
With Indices, Currencies, and Metals already having gone to the moon, I am looking for what is left. The answer is the Grain Market. Soybeans, Wheat, Corn, and Oats haven't moved yet. As spring planting approaches and other commodities become too expensive, watch for fund managers to rotate their capital into the grain sector.

 
Silver (XAGUSD, monthly closes, log scale): Long-term Cup and Handle breakouts with 10x price targets, 1800-2025.
 
See also:

The Return of Great Spaces | Pierre-Antoine Plaquevent

One century ago, the continentalist school of geopolitics proposed a world-system organized into pan-regions (Haushofer): an international order divided into large, autonomous continental spaces (Carl Schmitt), each polarized around a core power. This third way—between the nation-state nationalism rendered obsolete after the First World War and the globalism of the League of Nations—is once again presenting itself today as an updated alternative to a declining globalism.

One's utopia is the other's dystopia: A world divided among five superstates.
Austro-Japanese aristocrat Richard von Coudenhove-Kalergi's 1923 world map.
 
Regional imperialisms that restrain one another, rather than a hypocritical, monopolar planetary imperialism. Logically, if the United States were truly to accept a division of the world into autonomous great spaces, it would have to leave eastern Ukraine to Russia and Taiwan to China, in exchange for the abandonment of Sino-Russian influence in Latin America. Above all, it would have to restrain Israel in its posture towards Iran.

China, Russia, and Iran are the strategic powers that dominate the Eurasian heartland. A stabilized world order is possible only if the United States recognizes the respective spheres of influence of the Eurasian powers. This is the logical corollary of the updated Monroe Doctrine to which the Trump administration refers. Yet the history of the previous century shows that a thalassocracy of inherently globalist character does not accept a US retreat to the Western Hemisphere alone. The near future will tell us whether what is currently unfolding in Latin America marks a genuine US acceptance of a new post-globalist division of the world or the prologue to a broader conflagration.

» "Great North"—Russia, the United States, and Europe, forming a common sociocultural space. «
Vladislav Surkov, 2023.
 
The realistic scenario would thus be a division of the world into longitudinal corridors of influence among the powers of the “Global North” (Surkov), coupled with the construction of a multipolar world order of great powers that would definitively replace the faltering project of global governance. The pessimistic scenario, by contrast, would be that the move against Venezuela foreshadows an attack on Iran, after having seized control of the principal ally of political Eurasia in the southern part of the Western Hemisphere.

 
» The logic of great spaces does not have a universalist scope. The paradigm is no longer national, but spatial.  « Carl Schmitt, 1941.
 
See also:
Pierre-Antoine Plaquevent (born 1976) is a French geopolitical analyst, specializing on the intersection of infowarfare and the evolution of political philosophy. He is the founder of Strategika, a think tank and editorial platform that provides prospective analysis on international security and metapolitics.