War in Europe is Coming—The Living Shall Envy the Dead | George Galloway

The specter of NATO's war against Russia, expanding from Ukraine into the European Union, looms large, and the warnings couldn’t be more dire. While escalating tensions, particularly around Kaliningrad and in the Baltics, signal that a direct military confrontation outside of Ukraine is increasingly inevitable, Western leaders still believe they can defeat Russia. 

 

» 100% Chance of Nuclear War.«

Martin Armstrong, July 21, 2025. 

 

French President Emmanuel Macron continues to advocate deploying troops to Ukraine, seemingly under the illusion that NATO could swiftly overpower Russia and seize its estimated $75 trillion in natural resources—oil, gas, gold, diamonds, uranium, metals, rare earths, fertilizers, and timber—everything this globalist branch manager recently wrote off in Africa. Former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, now High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission, has even suggested breaking up Russia because it’s "too big." These ideas are not just impractical; they are insane.

 

» Collective West ready for nuclear war with Russia: Only question is, where will the new Hiroshima and Nagasaki happen? «
Following a 'highly provocative' spree of tweets from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, on August 1, 2025,

US President Trump ordered nuclear submarines with Trident missiles to target Russia.

 

» The US is a rogue state that can't be trusted. «

John Mearsheimer, August 3, 2025. 

 

Most chillingly, the shadow of nuclear war hangs over this crisis—a scenario so catastrophic that, as George Galloway unmistakably put it, the living shall envy the dead: "The war in Europe is coming. And we have no plan B and nowhere to go. In any case—in a nuclear war, which is how it would end—the living would envy the dead. Far better to perish in the first flash of the blast than to crawl through the ruins, dying slowly, in agony, a zombie in the aftermath. We have nowhere to go."

17-0 Turn-of-Year S&P 500 Setup with 7.1% Average Gain | Wayne Whaley

After the 20% pullback in the S&P 500 that occurred from February 19 to April 8, May, June, and July each posted positive returns of 6.2%, 5.0%, and 2.1%, respectively. In the 75 years following 1950, there have only been 17 instances in which the traditional "Sell in May and Go Away" period was marked by three consecutive positive months (May, June, and July): 

 From October 12 to October 27, the performance was 2 wins to 15 losses, with an average loss of 3.0%.

From October 27 to January 18, the record was 17-0, with an average gain of 7.1%.

 

Looking at the following 12 months, from August through July, the outcome was favorable, with a record of 14 wins and 3 losses in this setup. The average gain over this period was 12.6%, compared to a more typical yearly gain of 9.5%.

Interestingly, the only negative month during the following year was October. Specifically, from October 12 to October 27, the performance was 2 wins to 15 losses, with an average loss of 3.0%. However, from October 27 to January 18, the trend reversed dramatically, posting a perfect 17-0 record with an average gain of 7.1% over 11.7 weeks.

Wayne Whaley,
August 2, 2025.

See also:
Wayne Whaley (May 17, 2025)  - "Three Day Whaley" Predicting 20% Average Annual Return.

S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Update: Mid-August Low, Rally into September | Krasi

As expected, last week, the completion of minor Elliott Waves 4 and 5 led to a bearish weekly reversal, confirming the pattern on schedule and initiating a downward move. We are currently in week 17 of the 20-week cycle, with the cycle low expected within the next 1–3 weeks, likely mid-August, followed by an upward move into September.
 

Key upcoming milestones include a 40-week low in November or December 2025 and a 40-week high in February or March 2026. Market reversals typically occur gradually rather than with abrupt crashes. Thus, between now and February/March 2026, anticipate a series of highs and lows. After this period, the market is likely to experience a more pronounced decline. For historical parallels, examine the periods of January–August 2000, May–December 2007, and August 2021–March 2022. 

Reference:
Krasi (August 2, 2025)  - Practical Technical Analysis: Quick Update.

See also:
Krasi (July 28, 2025)  - S&P 500 Likely Topping 40-Week Hurst Cycle This Week.
David Hickson (July 28, 2025) - S&P 500 and NASDAQ Close to 40-Day Hurst Cycle Peak.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 25, 2025)  - August 2025 Post-Election Year Seasonality of US Stock Indexes.

The Thursday-Friday-Monday Pattern | Tom Hougaard

What happens when we start out trading on a Monday, and the previous Thursday’s high was higher than Friday’s high? Over the last 52 weeks, there were 21 instances where the price action on Friday was unable to trade above the highest point of the previous day, Thursday. I then looked at what happened on the following Monday. If there was a holiday on the Monday, I would view the price action on the Tuesday. Let me show you some examples:

When Thursday’s high was higher than Friday’s high, Monday traded below Friday's low.

 

Considering the random nature of the markets on a day by day basis, there shouldn’t be a pattern, and if there is, I have found an edge to exploit. I was surprised to find that on 20 out of the 21 occurrences, the Dow traded lower on Monday, often lower than Friday’s low. 

 

Here is how to apply this strategy:
1) Switch to the daily time frame.
2) Confirm that Friday's high is lower than Thursday's high.
3) Mark the low of the Friday candle.
4) Move to a smaller time frame for entry.
5) Wait for the price to reach a bearish fair value gap.
6.) Enter a short position, expecting the price to hit Friday's low on Monday.
7) On Monday, monitor the regular New York trading session.

I am not in the business of deluding people, so here is an example where it did not work: 

 

It did not work: Monday did not get below the lows of Friday.  

 

And here is one I traded earlier in August 2019. I went home short over the weekend –always a very risky strategy – and I was rewarded for it (this time!):

I assume you notice that there are often gaps associated with the Thursday-Friday-Monday pattern. Gaps are an inevitable part of trading life. 

Quoted from:
Tom Hougaard (2019)  - What I Wish Someone Had Told Me 20 Years Ago. 

 

Examples of Tom Hougaard's Scenario Analysis:
If Monday so far is the highest traded point for the last 3 days, i.e. Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, 

then how often is Thursday going to trade below the low of Wednesday?
What happens to Monday if the previous Friday trades below the highs of Thursday?

See also:

Tom Hougaard's YouTube channel.  

Darya Filipenka (April 3, 2024)  - ICT Fair Value Gap.

Darya Filipenka (March 18, 2024)  - ICT Draw on Liquidity.

Cameron Benson (August 20, 2023)  - Three-Push Reversal Patterns. 

orderbloque (March 1, 2025)  - Market Logic Based on Liquidity, Volume, and Inefficiency.

Tom Hougaard (2022) - Best Loser Wins: Why Normal Thinking Never Wins the Trading Game.

oooo0O0oooo

 

But is that actually true: does Tom Hougaard's Thursday-Friday-Monday Pattern really have an edge? Here are the results of the respective 2003-2025 backtests for the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and Russell 2000:

 

S&P 500: 472 setups; 231 wins: 48.94% win rate: No edge.                            
Nasdaq: 449 setups; 249 wins: 55.46% win rate: Slight positive edge.              
DJIA: 458 setups; 223 wins: 48.69% win rate: No edge.                            
Russell 2000: 464 setups; 258 wins: 55.60% win rate: Slight positive edge.

 

 

                            

 

The Art of the $1.3 Trillion 'Screw You' Deal: EU Pays Up, US Gives Nothing

The $1.3 trillion US–EU trade agreement, reached after a tense 40-minute meeting held between US President Trump and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen at Trump’s Scottish golf course on July 27, avoids a full-blown trade war. 

 

Trump celebrates his "biggest trade deal" yet.

 

As expected, Brussels, the tribute-bound US vassal, folded under pressure, and the circus ringmaster turned European diplomacy into an intergalactic howler: The EU accepted a 15% US tariff on its exports—while the US kept zero tariffs in return. Europe agreed to invest $600 billion into the US economy, pledged to buy hundreds of billions' worth of overpriced American weapons, and committed to $750 billion in US LNG purchases—$250 billion over the next three years alone—because apparently that's better than cheap gas through Nord Stream. In exchange, the US gave... absolutely nothing.
 

Von der Leyen, "You're known as a tough negotiator and dealmaker." Trump, "But fair." 

Von der Leyen, "And fair." Trump adds, "That's less important." Room erupts in laughter.

 

This 'screw you' deal and EU bailout for the US is seen as an absolute geopolitical and geoeconomic win for Trump, reinforcing his strategy of tariff threats and pressure, echoed in recent deals with Japan, Vietnam, and others.  

 

Brussels' Barbie—Trump’s total contempt: incompetent, corrupt, compromised.

 

Marine Le Pen, a veteran right-wing politician from France, calls the deal a political, economic, and moral "fiasco", and "an outright surrender for French industry and for our energy and military sovereignty"; Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov predicts "it will accelerate Europe’s deindustrialization".

 

Reference:

The Duran (July 28, 2025)  - US-EU Trade Deal. Trump gets everything, Ursula gets nothing. (video) 

Lena Petrova (July 28, 2025) - $1.3 Trillion Pledge: EU Folds Under Pressure as Trump Celebrates the Biggest Trade Win Yet. (video)

 

It is difficult, indeed.

 

了解你的敌人
Know your Enemies. 

S&P 500 and NASDAQ Close to 40-Day Hurst Cycle Peak | David Hickson

S&P 500: The S&P 500 formed an 18-month cycle trough in early April 2025, followed by an 80-day cycle trough on June 23, and a recent 40-day cycle trough on July 16. A 20-week cycle trough is anticipated around mid-August, with the 20-week cycle FLD expected to provide support. 

 

S&P 500 (daily bars): Expect a 40-day cycle peak soon, and a mid-August 20-week cycle trough.

The market is currently in a bullish trend, forming a second 40-day cycle peak soon, after which it should decline into the 20-week trough. Shorter cycle FLDs (5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 40-day, 80-day) will be monitored for peak confirmation and to generate downside targets. The trough may form above the 20-week FLD due to the bullish trend.

NASDAQ: The NASDAQ also formed an 18-month cycle trough in the April, and an 80-day cycle trough in mid-June. A second 40-day cycle peak is expected soon, followed by a decline into a 20-week cycle trough in mid-August, with support at the 20-week FLD.

 

 NASDAQ (daily bars), same as in the S&P: 40-day cycle peak soon, 

and a rather shallow mid-August 20-week cycle trough.

Shorter cycle FLDs will be watched for peak confirmation. No significant changes have occurred since the last update, and both indices are expected to follow similar cycle paths.

 

Gold was potentially forming a significant cycle peak, possibly an 18-year cycle peak, around mid-April of 2025, but without confirmation, as its price moves in a contracting wedge and lacks the typical sharp, isolated peaks. 

 

Gold (weekly bars): 18-year peak likely still ahead (allow 1-2 years of leeway). 

Hence, doubts persist about the 18-year peak, with suggestions the April 22 high may be a 20-week or 40-week peak instead, the true 18-year peak likely still ahead due to cycle variation allowing a year or two of leeway. A 40-week cycle trough formed on May 15, and an 80-day cycle trough is expected in early August, with the price crossing below the 20-day FLD, targeting around $3,250, followed by a potential bounce. 

 

Bitcoin saw the 18-month cycle trough in August 2024 (the first in the current 54-month cycle), and a 40-week trough in April 2025, where the cycle FLD provided support. 

 

Bitcoin (weekly bars): next 18-month cycle trough by year-end

or early 2026 (the second in the current 54-month cycle).

 

Bitcoin (monthly bars): 18-month and 54-month cycle peaks and troughs.
 

A 20-week cycle trough is expected in mid-to-late August, with a peak possibly already formed or imminent, followed by a slight decline into the trough before an 18-month cycle trough anticipated by year-end or early next year.

Reference:
David Hickson (28 July, 2025)  - Finding The Cycle Peak - Hurst Cycles Market Update . (video) 

 

See also:

Krasi (July 28, 2025)  - S&P 500 Likely Topping 40-Week Hurst Cycle This Week.

Jeff Hirsch (July 25, 2025)  - August 2025 Post-Election Year Seasonality of US Stock Indexes.  

David Hickson (July 14, 2025)  - S&P 500 and NASDAQ Headed for August Cycle Troughs. 

David Hickson (July 14, 2025)  - Gold Nearing Its 54-Month Hurst Cycle Peak.
Branimir Vojcic (July 14, 2025)  - Bitcoin’s Elliott Wave: Peak 2025, Dip to 40K, Rise to 160K+.

S&P 500 Likely Topping 40-Week Hurst Cycle This Week | Krasi

The pattern is on track to complete this week at week 34, in line with the projected 40-week cycle high (typical range: 32–36 weeks). Market breadth is deteriorating, with persistent negative divergences confirming a sell bias.

An ideal impulsive structure in wave C or Y suggests that the market is nearing the end of a five-wave impulsive move

(waves 1 through 5) within either wave C of a corrective pattern (e.g., a zigzag or flat) or wave Y of a complex correction

(e.g., a triangle or double/triple three).

This likely marks a significant top—at minimum a 40-week high—with increased probability that it’s the 4-year cycle peak. Minor waves 4 and 5 remain to complete, potentially finalizing an ideal impulsive structure in wave C or Y, thus terminating the broader pattern.

Reference:
Krasi (July 28, 2025)  - Quick Update.

Every dip's a wave—until it’s not.

See also:

Jeff Hirsch (July 25, 2025)  - August 2025 Post-Election Year Seasonality of US Stock Indexes. 
David Hickson (July 14, 2025)  - S&P 500 and NASDAQ Headed for August Cycle Troughs.

August 2025 Post-Election Year Seasonality of US Stock Indexes | Jeff Hirsch

August was the best DJIA month from 1901–1951, driven by agriculture and farming. Since 1988, however, it has become the worst month for DJIA and Russell 2000, and the second worst for S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 1000, with average returns from +0.1% (NASDAQ) to –0.8% (DJIA). In August 2022, all major indexes fell over 4%; in 2023, losses exceeded 1.8%.

 

Down from August 4 (Mon) into August 19 (Tue), mid- to late-month sideways to down, up into month end.

Since 1950, in post-election years (dashed lines in chart above), August typically starts strong with average gains in the first two trading days, then declines until shortly after mid-month. A rebound of varying size and length usually follows, before major indexes end the month in choppy or sideways trading.

 

S&P 500 Post-Election Year Seasonal Pattern 1949-2023:

The S&P 500 rises steadily through July (blue STA Aggregate Cycle), 
peaks in early August, and pulls back into late August.
 

In post-election years, August has been even weaker: it’s the worst month for DJIA and Russell 1000, second worst for S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000. Average losses range from –0.5% (Russell 2000) to –1.5% (DJIA), with more down Augusts than up across all indexes.

  

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 28, 2025)  - Typical August Trading – Better Open in Post-Election Years but Still Historically Weak.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 25, 2025)  - August has been even weaker in post-election years. 

 

 

Bank of America (BoA) analyst Paul Ciana highlights a historical S&P 500 trend since 1928, where the average trend tended to be frontloaded in July, peaking by the end of August and correcting lower in September. However, since 2015 a similar pattern with a mid-August peak developed while the median trend sees a late September peak.

The summer doldrums (late June to early September) typically see 20-40% lower trading volumes and variable volatility due to reduced market participation. Equities, bonds, commodities, and forex show subdued activity, with occasional volatility spikes due to low liquidity, and, in August 2025, possibly from more US tariffs craze and geopolitical events. 

 

Namzes, July 26, 2025.

  

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report (see above) reveals extreme positioning in VIX futures, with dealers (= banks, broker-dealers, intermediaries managing risk from client trades, not speculating) holding substantial long positions and CTAs (= hedge funds, who are on the other side of the trade, typically as speculators) showing their largest short exposure since November–December 2021—a pattern that has frequently preceded spikes in the VIX. This unusual market setup suggests potential volatility in early August 2025 and aligns with Namze's forecast of an 80-day cycle low in the VIX during that period. However, the resolution may be delayed due to the scale of the positioning. 

Namzes' 2025 S&P 500 Roadmap, December 27, 2024. 

According to BofA Global Research, the average US Presidential Cycle Year 1

(1928-2024) peaks in July and falls around 8% by year-end.

 

A seasonal cycle analysis by Ned Davis Research on the 2025 S&P 500 composite—blending the standard seasonal, 4-year Presidential, and 10-year decennial cycles—projects a current peak, choppy action through October, a late-year drawdown,

and a strong Q4 rally. August and September appear as potential weak spots.

 Bitcoin Seasonal Pattern 2018-2024 vs 2025.

 

See also:

 David Hickson (July 14, 2025)  - S&P 500 and NASDAQ Headed for August Hurst Cycle Troughs.

TPR (February 4, 2025)  - The Most Consistent Seasonal Patterns in the S&P 500 | With Statistics.

 Robert Miner (January 8, 2025)  - S&P 500 Post-Election Year Patterns by Political Party.

Namzes (April 16, 2025)  - S&P 500 1965 vs 2025 Analogue = 89% Correlation.

Namzes (December 27, 2024) - 2025 Outlook on S&P 500, Cryptos, Currencies, Metals & Energy.

Cosmic Cluster Days | August 2025

Heliocentric Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) and financial markets do not display a consistent polarity or directional bias. The 'noise channel' serves as a signal filter, with the upper and lower limits of the channel being empirically defined. That said, swing directions, along with swing highs and lows also within the 'noise channel,' may correlate with or coincide with short-term market trends and reversals.

 

Cosmic Cluster Days  |   Composite Line  |  Noise Channel 

 ○ = Full Moon | ● = New Moon | ▴  = Lunar Declination max North and ▾ = max South |  立春 =  Solar Terms

 

Cosmic Cluster Days in August 2025:

 Jul 30 (Wed) | Aug 13 (Wed) | Aug 18 (Mon) | Aug 24 (Sun) | Sep 08 (Mon)

  

For previous CCDs, click [HERE]. For background on the author, the concept, and the calculation method, click [HERE].

 

Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Turning Points, click [HERE]. 

Sensitive Degrees of the Sun, click [HERE].

Planet Speed (Retrogradity), click [HERE].   

Planetary Declinations, click [HERE].

Lunation Cycle, click [HERE].  

The SoLunar Rhythm in August 2025.

 

Mercury at Inferior Conjunction on Thursday, July 31, 2025 at 19:36 EDT.

Mercury at Greatest Elongation on Tuesday, August 19, 2025 at 5:59 EDT.

Mercury at Perihelion on Wednesday, August 27, 2025 at 08:23 EDT.

Total Lunar Eclipse on Sunday, September 7, 2025 at 14:11 EDT.