2026 S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Patterns by Political Party | Robert Miner

The Midterm Election Year typically performs the worst in the four-year election cycle. The chart below illustrates the average Midterm Election Year performance of the S&P 500 since 1950, categorized by first-term political party (1st Term Democrats, 1st Term Republicans):

Winter High – Summer Low –  Bull into Year-End.
First week of January: Major high (around +0.5%)
Second week of February: Major low (around -4%)
Mid-April: Major high (around +3%)
First week of August: Major low (around -6%)
Last week of 2026: Major high (around +8%)

Net Long-term Average of Midterm Election Year Performance under 1st-Term Republicans: +3%.

 

Reference:

Robert C. Miner (January 31, 2024) - The Definitive Guide to the U.S. Election Cycle and Stock Market Trends: 

Profit from the most consistent cycle in the U.S. economy.

 

See also:
Robert Miner (January 8, 2025)  - S&P 500 Post-Election Year Patterns by Political Party.