Monday, August 17, 2026

Three Forms of Violence and Their Responses | Antonino Drago

Johan Galtung gave his definitive formulation of the three forms of violence—direct, structural, and cultural—in 1990 with the publication of his essay "Cultural Violence" in the Journal of Peace ResearchDirect violence is what everyone readily understands: a slap, an insult, an act of aggression, a theft, or a physical assault. How can we respond positively? Calmly, with empathy, with a creative response that releases tension, etc. In short, everything taught in nonviolence training.

» Today, we encounter the violence of science. «
 
Structural violence is more difficult to identify: an unemployed person doesn't realize that in Strasbourg, unemployment is deliberately engineered to ensure that manufacturers always have an abundant workforce; someone who deposits money in a bank doesn't realize that their money will fuel a financial system that allows for speculation hundreds, even thousands, of times over the basic material goods of the poorest people in the world.
 
Those who join the army to find employment fail to realize that they become complicit in the panorama of death that surrounds us and which, along with nuclear deterrence, threatens humanity with suicide. We must therefore be careful not to forget what Shantidas always emphasized: structural sin, in the face of which individual sins lose their meaning. The only commandment he mentions is “Thou shalt not kill,” in order to call for conversion in the face of war, understood as the exemplary form of structural violence. Shantidas helped to unmask structural violence when, in the 1950s, he denounced the greatest structural violence of his time: the Two Blocs that dominated the world and were complementary (The Four Plagues, 1959, §§ 1-24)
 
How can we respond effectively to this? One can try to do so instinctively, but structures are precisely impervious to such reactions. For example, the programmers in Strasbourg have the police at their disposal to suppress protests. One can respond on an emotional level by speaking with the utmost empathy to a person in charge. But at best, the person in charge might change their mind, while the structure would persist.

Ordinary people are incapable of developing a social analysis suited to the situation created by the social structure; indeed, a structure dominates because people generally ignore the complexity of a social structure. It is through this superiority that structures defend themselves. So, to respond effectively to them, it is necessary to establish a clear and precise analysis of the situation. In conclusion, a response is needed that appeals not only to our humanity, but also to the intelligence capable of adapting our energies to the weaknesses of the situation; otherwise, we strike where there is no nail.
 
Finally, there is cultural violence, even more subtle and less perceptible, but no less disastrous than the other two. Here too, Galtung, in my humble opinion, was unclear when he defined it as the support that culture provides to structural violence. Of course, this violence exists: for example, the violence of consumerist propaganda, which supports commercial capitalism; or the scholastic violence that fails to denounce the existing power system. But there is more: autonomous cultural violence that claims to have no alternatives. Consider, for example, the ideological violence of the Church, which declared anyone who read the Gospel in the vernacular a heretic (see the Waldensians), or the violence of money, which assigns a value to everything according to its price. It is this violence that Les Nouvelles de l'Arche highlights when it devotes an issue to racism or patriarchy. This violence is pervasive.

Therefore, to detect it and ultimately avoid it, we must pay particular attention to it. Today, we encounter the violence of science: the idea that science imposes itself upon the mind as humanity's inevitable path. There is also the violence of technology, which invades our human world as an irreversible advance. As early as the 1950s, Lanza del Vasto made a significant contribution to the fight against this type of violence, denouncing it as the greatest violence of our time. In his era, this violence only affected the external world of human beings—radio, television, automobiles, etc.

Today, it has reached its full potential: artificial intelligence is capable of revolutionizing human civilization, to the point of inspiring transhumanism or raising fears of a hierarchy of robots dominating humanity. It will halve the number of available jobs in a short time, revolutionize the education system, create a state secret service a thousand times more powerful than James Bond, and fill all the gaps in the existing arsenal with new weapons. Today, anyone who has grown up with a smartphone has been connected to AI since childhood.
 
According to the text of Revelation 13, the wisdom necessary for escape lies in the ability to name these things—first and foremost, modern science. And Shantidas has given this violence a name: the quest for the infinite, not the infinity of human relationships, but the infinity of the animal world, the infinite number of things to enjoy, the infinite number of social structures in which to participate, and finally, the infinite potential of human (and artificial) intelligence waiting to be discovered. The key to liberation is a "return to the obvious" of human nature in its simplicity and direct human relationships. In conclusion:
 
the nonviolent response to direct violence is creativity in human relationships;
the response to structural violence requires understanding the situation;
the nonviolent response to cultural violence requires being in the world without being of the world—that is, in the incessant and, through artificial intelligence, increasingly penetrating noise of modernity, turning back toward one's own soul and fighting every absolutism and every claim of irreversible progress.

Just as Gandhi and Shantidas did in their respective times.
 
Quoted from:
Antonino Drago (August 15, 2026) - The Three Forms of Violence and Their Responses.
Antonino Drago (b. 1938) is a professor at the University of Naples Federico II, Italy, and a member of the TRANSCEND Network. An ally of the Ark Community, he teaches at the TRANSCEND Peace University (TPU). He holds a master's degree in physics from the University of Pisa (1961) and is a follower of the Community of the Ark, founded by Gandhi's Italian disciple Lanza del Vasto. A conscientious objector, Drago participated in Italy's campaigns for conscientious objection (1964–1972) and for refusing to pay taxes used to finance military expenditure (1983–2000). Drawing on his extensive experience and writings on these subjects, he taught Nonviolent Popular Defense in the University of Pisa's "Science for Peace" curriculum (2001–2012), as well as Peacebuilding and Peacekeeping (2009–2013), and History and Techniques of Nonviolence in the University of Florence's "Operations of Peace" curriculum (2004–2010). In 2004–2005, Drago served as the first president of the Italian Ministerial Committee for Promoting Unarmed and Nonviolent Civil Defense.

Margin Debt Hits Record Then Drops: Classic Late-Cycle Sign | Branimir Vojcic

Latest FINRA data published in mid-August show that US margin debt fell to $1.42T in July 2026 after reaching a record $1.50T in June, marking the first decline following a sustained period of increases.


The
chart tracks US margin debt versus the S&P 500 from 1997–2026, highlighting historical peaks in leverage that preceded 
S&P 500 tops by 0–4 months (median around 3 months). That places September–October toward the later end of the historical window for a S&P 500 decline.

Sunday, August 16, 2026

Three-Bar Reversal (3BR+/-) and Effort vs. Result | Toby Crabel

The Three-Bar Reversal with Ease of Movement in bar three of the pattern is one of the better patterns I have seen in markets on all time frames.
Chart 1: Nasdaq 5-minute chart with the Three-Bar Reversal pattern (3BR+/-).
When 
there is a high reading of effort vs. result, it indicates that the market
moved 
an unusually large magnitude for the amount of volume utilized.
 
First, you would not want to go against ease of movement anyway, but when it also shows laboring on the middle bar (bar 2), it is an even stronger indication. If the first bar of the pattern has an effort vs. result reading lower than bar 3, it is even more convincing. If bar 1 is also laboring along with bar 2, and then bar 3 reverses both bars completely, that is the strongest possibility.

Generally, I don’t have to have a pattern to trade, but the convenience of a three-bar reversal is the risk management that is naturally provided with the pattern. In the case of a 3BR+ with ease of movement in bar 3, the stop can be placed below the low of the 3rd bar or below the low of the whole pattern, a more conservative stop. After a pattern like this, pullbacks should be used for long entries with stops at the crucial areas. If stopped out, you know there was a failure, and an exit is a good decision.
 
Chart 2: A close-up of the reversal at (D), showing bars 1 and 2
laboring before bar 3 reverses with ease of movement.
The 3BR is related to the two-bar reversal (2BR), the four-bar reversal (4BR), and the outside bar (OB), which is a form of all the above in most cases. But with an outside bar, you want to be sure you get a significant reading of ease of movement. They are all frequently developing in major reversal areas.

Gold Bull 2027-2032, Monetary Reset & EU Breakup | Martin Armstrong

Martin Armstrong correctly forecast the recent six-month correction in Gold and Silver, with Gold falling roughly 30% from $5,600 to $3,900 and Silver about 55% from $121 to $55. Both have since rebounded—Gold near $4,500 and Silver above $66—but Armstrong sees this as potentially only an oversold bounce. 
 
» Gold and Silver bull market from Q1 2027 into 2032. «

He argues that precious metals hedge primarily against government, not inflation: Gold fell for 19 years from 1980–1999 despite rising government debt. The current correction reflects growing market complacency over Iran and Ukraine, while smarter money recognizes that neither conflict is likely to resolve cleanly. Armstrong expects the decisive structural turn in Q1 2027, launching a sustained metals bull market into roughly 2032, followed by a monetary resetmarking the peak of the current public-debt cycle and a systemic shift away from pure fiat structuresCentral banks lack effective tools against cost-push inflation from such shocks.
 
» This will lead to dramatic changes. «
 
The EU risks breakup by around 2029. Europe's trajectory increasingly resembles the systems Eastern Europeans fled. Governments act solely in their own interest; free-speech and media constraints (illustrated during COVID and through pressure on journalists) demonstrate the pattern. Energy attacks by Ukraine on Russian oil infrastructure are already creating shortages that force Russia toward imports and are expected to drive energy prices higher.

Lying to Oneself Means Losing Self-Respect | Esmaeil Baqaei

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei cited a passage from Dostoevsky's "The Brothers Karamazov" on X, saying it aptly describes how America’s extreme reliance on lies has corrupted its foreign policy toward Iran and the region to the point where it can no longer distinguish truth from falsehood.
This passage from Dostoevsky's "The Brothers Karamazov" aptly describes the situation in which the US system of governance and foreign policy regarding Iran and the region finds itself due to its extreme reliance on 'lies': 
» The man who lies to himself and listens to his own lie comes to such a pass that he cannot distinguish the truth within him, or around him, and so loses all respect for himself and for others. «

Wednesday, August 12, 2026

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | August–September 2026

Derived from M.A. Vukcevic's solar-activity formula linking heliocentric Jupiter–Saturn sidereal orbits to model the sunspot cycle, the concept applied below utilizes a proprietary harmonic to project S&P 500 market swings.


With no consistent polarity or directional bias, the blue Jupiter–Saturn curve inflects within a 1-to-12-day window; thus, swings exceeding seven days are bisected (blue squares) to optimize short-term S&P 500 correlation. Previous examples [HERE].

Tuesday, August 11, 2026

August 2026 Eclipses: Financial Markets & Monetary Regimes | Margo Amala

The August 2026 eclipse season is a potentially significant period for markets, monetary systems, geopolitical developments, and political leadership. The August 12 (Wed) total solar eclipse at 20° Leo centers sovereignty, executive authority, leadership, and public power. It belongs to Saros 126, historically associated with recessions, financial dislocations, geopolitical shocks, and leadership transitions. The August 28 (Fri) Pisces lunar eclipse completes the current Pisces series, marking the culmination of a decades-long Pisces cycle and a transition away from themes of uncertainty, ambiguity, and systemic fluidity.

Leo-Pisces / Saros 126 Eclipses and Major Events, 1836 to 2026. 

The Leo–Pisces axis and Saros 126 repeatedly coincide with major political and financial turning points. In 1971, a Leo–Pisces eclipse sequence preceded the August 15 Nixon Shock, which ended dollar convertibility into gold and transformed the international monetary system. In 1980, the cycle coincided with Reagan's defeat of Carter and a major silver-market peak. In 1990, a Saros 126 eclipse occurred shortly before Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. In 1998, the Leo–Pisces transition coincided with the final phase of the dot-com boom. In 2008, Saros 126 preceded the Lehman Brothers collapse by approximately 45 days. Earlier monetary precedents include the 1836 Specie Circular, the 1893 Silver Purchase Act, and the 1931 sterling crisis preceding Britain's abandonment of the gold standard.


Saros 126 has a reported historical correlation of approximately 75% with recessions occurring within two months of the eclipse. Equity-market behavior tends to show a two-stage pattern: relatively positive short-term performance followed by slower deterioration over subsequent months, consistent with a rolling recession or delayed structural repricing rather than an immediate collapse. Individual equities can experience corresponding leadership and valuation inflection points; Tesla, for example, is currently associated with a breakdown around a 20-week cycle low.


Precious metals occupy a central position in the historical pattern because major Leo–Pisces and Saros 126 periods repeatedly coincide with monetary-system transitions. The 1971 Nixon Shock is the principal precedent: the eclipse sequence coincided with a fundamental redefinition of money, monetary convertibility, and control of the global monetary system. Comparable historical episodes include the 1836, 1893, and 1931 monetary disruptions. Gold and silver are currently approaching or experiencing a 20-week cycle low, creating a technical timing point within the broader monetary-cycle pattern. The key issue is therefore not merely metal-price volatility but a potential reassessment of currency, monetary authority, and the role of hard assets.

August 12, 2026 Solar Eclipse Map of Path on earth.
 
Historical backtesting of Saros Series 126 and the 19-year Metonic cycle reveals a sharp decoupling between equity markets and underlying macroeconomic conditions:
Recession Risks: Dating back to 1828, 75% of total eclipses in Saros Series 126 (8 of 12) preceded an economic recession within two months. This aligns with the Lunar Nodes shifting into the Aquarius-Leo axis—a movement historically correlated with business cycle troughs.
Equity Trajectory: Following Metonic cycle eclipses, short-term equity performance is overwhelmingly bullish, boasting positive market returns 87.5% of the time at 1 month and 75% at 3 months. However, returns decay steadily to 50% at 6 months and 37.5% at 12 months, signaling a gradual market roll-off rather than an immediate crash.

The geopolitical expression
is concentrated around sovereignty, resources, territorial control, and strategic chokepoints. Astrocartographic emphasis includes Greenland, associated with resources and energy; Spain, associated with immigration and political leadership; and the Strait of Hormuz, associated with Saturnian restriction, strategic blockage, and constrained movement. Mars in Cancer reinforces protectionism, defensive nationalism, territorial concerns, and emotionally charged public reactions.
 
The central historical analogy is 1971, when a Leo–Pisces eclipse sequence coincided with a fundamental monetary-regime change and a structural transformation in precious metals. August 2026 combines the same eclipse-axis symbolism with a Saros 126 recession signal, a 20-week precious-metals cycle low, heightened geopolitical constraints, and visible questions surrounding political and monetary authority. 
The principal risk is therefore a synchronized transition across equities, precious metals, currencies, leadership structures, and geopolitical power rather than an isolated eclipse-driven market move.
Reference:

Gold Has Bottomed? What the Cycles Say | Branimir Vojcic

Shorter-term cycles indicate that Gold has formed an interim bottom. 
 
 
The composite line of the five dominant short- and medium-to-longer-term cycles (32, 79, 118, 194 and 1,181 trading days or 46.4, 114.5, 171 and 281 calendar days) projects an upcoming medium-term peak on September 11 (Fri), followed by the next trough on November 16 (Mon). 


However, the composite line of the two dominant long-term cycles (1,181 trading days or 4.687 years and 1,832 trading days or 7.27 years) suggests that Gold's correction will continue through late October 2028, followed by a rally extending into the end of November 2030.  

Monday, August 10, 2026

De-Dollarized Payment Rails For African Continental Free Trade Area

On July 20, 2026, the governors of the Central Bank of Egypt and the Central Bank of Eswatini met in Cairo to discuss expanding banking cooperation, Egypt's experience with the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS), and the Pan-African Gold Bank initiative already underway with African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank, Cairo, Egypt).
PAPSS enables instant cross-border payments in local currencies through three core processes: instant payment, pre-funding and net settlement. Instant payments eliminate the need to convert into hard currencies and route funds outside Africa, while performing compliance, legal and sanctions checks in real time. This will save African nations an estimated $5 billion annually in Western bank transaction fees.
PAPSS, operated by Afreximbank together with the African Union (AU) and the AfCFTA Secretariat, had by then linked banks across a growing network. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which entered into force on May 30, 2019, and by mid-2026 had been ratified by 49 of 54 signatory states, is the continent-wide free-trade area covering a market of more than 1.4 billion people; PAPSS was developed specifically to support payments and settlement under it. 
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is the flagship project of the African Union's Agenda 2063. It creates a single market of more than 1.4 billion people across the 55 AU member states by liberalizing trade in goods and services, investment, intellectual property, competition, digital trade, and women and youth participation.
In July 2026 the Bank of Central African States joined PAPSS, bringing in the six CEMAC CFA-franc countries and raising the total to 28 nations served by more than 190 commercial banks and fintechs through 16 switches. 
Customer  payments move in local currencies: a payer instructs a bank,  PAPSS performs real-time validation, compliance, and sanctions checks,  and the beneficiary’s bank credits the recipient, typically in about  seven seconds against a 120-second design maximum. Because the credits  are irrevocable, direct participants pre-fund clearing accounts through  their national Real-Time Gross Settlement Systems (RTGS) while indirect  participants obtain liquidity through sponsorship. At 11:00 UTC each  day, PAPSS calculates the multilateral net position of every  participating central bank, settles the local-currency leg through the  central banks' RTGS systems, and sends any residual imbalance as a  hard-currency instruction to Afreximbank, which acts as settlement  agent. The residual step still uses dollars or other convertible  currencies, yet the front end largely bypasses external correspondent  chains and sharply reduces the volume of hard-currency settlement  required.
Separately, on December 29–30, 2025, the Central Bank of Egypt and Afreximbank signed a memorandum of understanding to establish a pan-African gold-bank program intended to formalize gold value chains, strengthen central-bank reserves, and reduce reliance on foreign refining and trading hubs. 
 
A feasibility study for an internationally accredited gold refinery, secure vaulting, and related financial services—potentially located in an Egyptian free-trade zone—was commissioned with McKinsey; by mid-2026 Afreximbank had signaled a $50–100 million commitment toward the refinery, with construction targeted for the end of 2026 and operations in 2027–28. The project remains at the planning stage.
 
From 2012–2022, industrial and semi-industrial gold mining operated in 26+ African countries, with output rising in most. Production nearly doubled in Mali and Burkina Faso and increased fivefold in Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast), while declining elsewhere—most notably in South Africa (180 tons in 2011 to 84 tons in 2022). In 2022, Ghana led with 95.8 tons, followed by South Africa (84), Mali (66.2), and Burkina Faso (57.7).
Parallel developments are linking Africa more closely to Chinese and Hong Kong infrastructure. Afreximbank became a direct participant of China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and Standard Bank the first African commercial bank to join the system; in June 2026, Standard Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) were authorized as the Renminbi Clearing Bank of Africa, covering 19 countries. 
 
Hong Kong's Christopher Hui advanced gold-market memoranda with Laos and exploratory discussions with Ghana, while the Hong Kong Gold Exchange partnered with Alibaba-backed AGTech on a digital trading and clearing platform. Chinese gold imports reached roughly 163 tons in May and 173 tons in June 2026, against official People's Bank of China (PBOC) purchases of about 10 and 15 tons respectively; the difference is absorbed by commercial banks and private demand.

See also:

Iran Appoints Ex-IRGC Commander Mohsen Rezaei to Head Security Council

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has appointed former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Mohsen Rezaei as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council on August 9, according to Iranian state media. Rezaei replaces Mohammad Bagher Zolqadr, who has been named an advisor to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
 
» Full compensation from the US for all damages
and the US withdrawing from the Persian Gulf. «
Iran goes hardline: offence, not defence.
 
Mohsen Rezaei, who commanded the IRGC for more than a decade, is a veteran military and political figure. His appointment places an experienced security official in a key role as Tehran manages its confrontation with Washington.
 
Ali Larijani held Rezaei's post until he was killed in an Israeli strike
 during the US-Israeli attacks on Iran earlier on March 16, 2026.  

The Supreme National Security Council plays a central role in coordinating Iran's national security policy and operates under the authority of the supreme leader. 
» The American presence in the Persian Gulf has been the primary cause of insecurity over the past 50 years. We will consider ending the war only after, first, we have received full compensation from the US for all damages. Second, we must obtain a 100% guarantee for the future, which is not possible without the US withdrawing from the Persian Gulf. «
Mohsen Rezaei, March 16, 2026.

Hamidreza Rajabzadeh was an Iranian religious singer who was kidnapped and had his heart ripped out of his chest while still alive. He was dismembered and parts of his body were sent to his family and workplace—the work of the U$raHell perverts who scream free Iran.

Saturday, August 8, 2026

BofA Bull & Bear Indicator Hits 9.7—Extreme Greed Signals Sell

On August 5 (Wed), BofA's Hartnett Bull & Bear Indicator hit 9.7, up from 9.4 and its highest level since 2021—a strong contrarian sell signal for risk assets (banks, industrials, semis/tech). 

 
The indicator aggregates positioning (hedge funds and long-only managers), equity/bond flows, global equity breadth, and tight credit spreads. Historically, readings over 8 have preceded modest average equity declines of 2-3% over 1-3 months (around 60% hit rate), with occasional larger drawdowns, prompting BofA to recommend rotating toward defensives (stable, less cyclical sectors like consumer staples and often utilities/healthcare).
 

See also:
 
Goldman Sachs' Panic Index—a 2-year rolling percentile of equity-volatility metrics (VIX, skew, ATM IV, term structure)—collapsed from the 90th to 0th percentile in one week, reaching 1.03 in the 2024–26 chart. The plunge signals near-total exhaustion of downside-protection demand after early-2026 fear spikes, with options flows now call-heavy and rising volumes pointing to upside chasing rather than hedging. Yet extreme complacency has historically preceded both sustained rallies and abrupt volatility. Translation: There is no fear. 
Only the dotcom boom pushed US valuations higher.
 
There is a notable negative divergence between the NAAIM Index and the SPX,
similar to February 2025, which preceded a significant decline in the SPX.

COT: More Downside Ahead for DXY | Tom McClellan

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell last week following coordinated US–Japan intervention in the yen. The drop pushed DXY back below the 100.50 support/resistance level, marking the move above that level as a failed breakout. 


Commercial traders of Dollar Index futures responded this week (per COT report data) by increasing their collective net short position. Looking back at other price tops on this chart, you may notice that when commercials do this—adding shorts after a downturn—there is a lot more downturn yet to come for the DXY.
 
Reference:
 
And every other 8-year top tends to be more significant (fatter arrows). 

VIX 80-Day Cycle Low Within Days & Volatility Ready to Break Out | Namzes

The VIX 80-day cycle low is expected within the next few days. August 5 marked day 68, which is slightly early but still within range. The 40-day cycle, shown in the bottom panel, reflects a 2:1 harmonic ratio relative to the 80-day cycle. August options expiration (OpEx, Friday, August 21) should be watched as a potential window for a volatility breakout. Volatility is likely to rise into October, where the next key low in the S&P 500 may form.

Top panel: VIX price + 80-day cycle. Middle: Seasonality/trend + dated cycle lows. Bottom: 40-day cycle oscillator.

The S&P 500's 20-week cycle low likely occurred on July 29 (Wed), with 7,313 now serving as a key daily pivot for any downside. As the VIX cycle approaches its low in the coming days, it is important to monitor the VIX term structure, which is currently reaching extreme contango levels, indicating that 30-day volatility is significantly lower than 3-month volatility. When this ratio approaches and clusters around 0.80, it signals market complacency and often precedes pullbacks in equities.

VIX/VIX3M ratio vs. S&P 500.
 
The VIX/VIX3M ratio, shown inverted in the lower panel for easier comparison against the S&P 500 (in gold), highlights these 0.80 readings. When combined with extreme dispersion and a rapidly declining put/call ratio this week, these conditions point to increasing volatility, which is expected to spike in the second half of August.


See also: