VIX 80-Day Cycle Low Within Days & Volatility Ready to Break Out | Namzes

The VIX 80-day cycle low is expected within the next few days. August 5 marked day 68, which is slightly early but still within range. The 40-day cycle, shown in the bottom panel, reflects a 2:1 harmonic ratio relative to the 80-day cycle. August options expiration (OpEx, Friday, August 21) should be watched as a potential window for a volatility breakout. Volatility is likely to rise into October, where the next key low in the S&P 500 may form.

Top panel: VIX price + 80-day cycle. Middle: Seasonality/trend + dated cycle lows. Bottom: 40-day cycle oscillator.

The S&P 500's 20-week cycle low likely occurred on July 29 (Wed), with 7,313 now serving as a key daily pivot for any downside. As the VIX cycle approaches its low in the coming days, it is important to monitor the VIX term structure, which is currently reaching extreme contango levels, indicating that 30-day volatility is significantly lower than 3-month volatility. When this ratio approaches and clusters around 0.80, it signals market complacency and often precedes pullbacks in equities.

VIX/VIX3M ratio vs. S&P 500.

 

The VIX/VIX3M ratio, shown inverted in the lower panel for easier comparison against the S&P 500 (in gold), highlights these 0.80 readings. When combined with extreme dispersion and a rapidly declining put/call ratio this week, these conditions point to increasing volatility, which is expected to spike in the second half of August.

Reference:
Namzes (August 5 and 7) - Volatility Set to Ignite: Complacency Signals August Breakout.
 

See also:

Namzes (July 27, 2026) - 20-Week Hurst Cycle Low Due in SPX QQQ SOX SMH.
TPR (August 6, 2026) - S&P 500 Hits New ATH as Smart Money Starts Bailing.

DJIA Up in 77.3% of April OpEx Weeks Since 1982 | Jeff Hirsch

April's monthly option expiration is generally bullish across the board, with respectable gains on the last day of the week, the entire week, and the week after. Since 1982, DJIA has advanced 28 times in 44 years on monthly expiration day, with an average gain of 0.20%. 

 

DJIA has risen in 34 of the past 44 April options-expiration weeks (next week), with an average gain of 1.00%. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ also show strong seasonality, averaging weekly gains of 0.77% and 0.76%. Losses in 2022, 2024, and 2025 have tempered the longer-term averages. 

 DJIA Up in 77.3% of April OpEx Weeks since 1982.

 

 

S&P 500 Up in 65.9% of April OpEx Weeks since 1982.

S&P 500 has a similar record, also with 28 advances and an average advance of 0.15% on monthly expiration day. Monthly expiration day was trending solidly bullish after four or five declines from 2014 to 2018, but took hits in the 2022 bear market, 2024, and in 2025 due to Liberation Day tariff uncertainty.

NASDAQ Up in 63.6% of April OpEx Weeks since 1982.

 

Monthly expiration week also has a bullish track record over the past 44 years. Average weekly gains are +1.00% for DJIA, +0.77% for S&P 500, and +0.76% for NASDAQ. The bullish bias of April monthly expiration also persists during the week after, although average gains have not been as strong, with selling pressure rising (from 2018 to 2022). However, strength has returned since 2023. NASDAQ jumped 6.73% in the week after in 2025.

► April seasonality strong: 2nd-best month for DJIA and S&P; 4th for NASDAQ.
► April 2026 started solidly (+0.52% DJIA, +1.98% NASDAQ) despite geopolitical tension, rising energy costs, April 15 tax deadline.
► Historically, early April outperformed—since 1994, strength shifted to second half.
► Post–April 15 stronger (especially NASDAQ, Russell 2000).

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (April 10, 2026) - DJIA Up 77.3% of the Time During April Monthly Expiration Week since 1982.

 Jeffrey A. Hirsch (April 7, 2026) - Income Tax Deadline, Earnings Season & Iran War: Second Half of April Historically Better.

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 25, 2026) - April Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.