On August 5 (Wed), BofA's Hartnett Bull & Bear Indicator hit 9.7, up from 9.4 and its highest level since 2021—a strong contrarian sell signal for risk assets (banks, industrials, semis/tech).
The
indicator aggregates positioning (hedge funds and long-only managers),
equity/bond flows, global equity breadth, and tight credit spreads. Historically, readings over 8 have preceded modest average equity declines of 2-3% over 1-3 months (around 60% hit rate), with occasional larger drawdowns, prompting BofA to recommend rotating toward defensives (stable, less cyclical sectors like consumer staples and often utilities/healthcare).