Mexico's Economic Rise Shifts Power from the US | Richard D. Wolff

Mexico, often viewed as dependent on the US, holds a significant edge in the global economy, with the US relying more on Mexico than most Americans realize. Beyond avocados and automobiles, Mexico is a vital hub for US supply chains in electronics, pharmaceuticals, automotive, aerospace, medical devices, textiles, consumer goods, and information/communications technology. As the US depends on Mexico, Mexico has strategically built leverage, shifting focus from politics to economics.

 

The Power Problem: Nearshoring and Mexico’s energy sector.

Mexico’s rise as an economic powerhouse challenges its subordinate image. Its leverage in trade, energy, and geopolitics makes it vital to the US. Rising labor and environmental demands could disrupt supply chains. The era of US dominance is fading, replaced by interdependence, and Mexico wields unprecedented influence. A fracture in this delicate relationship could swiftly impact the US. 

 

Mexico, once a trade partner, is now a force reshaping trade and energy policies, catching the US unprepared. The US has long focused on migration and border security, overlooking intricate economic ties. Mexico is a cornerstone of US production, driven by cost-effective labor and trade agreements like the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA, 2020).

 

Mexico’s Manufacturing Momentum: Many well-established industrial clusters.

 

This dependency stems from lower wages and proximity, but this corporate strategy has created vulnerabilities. US companies’ reliance on Mexico’s manufacturing gives Mexico significant leverage. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA,1994) boosted trade but moved US factories to Mexico for cheaper labor, eroding American jobs. USMCA preserved this structure. Mexico, no longer just a low-cost hub, has diversified into energy, consumer markets, and geopolitics, prioritizing labor rights and domestic growth, threatening the cheap labor model and US supply chains.

 

 Puerto Manzanillo, Mexico's new trade hub on the Pacific, bypassing the Panama Canal.

 

US policies, like subsidized agricultural exports, have displaced Mexican farmers, driving migration. US firms’ job relocation to Mexico exploits low-wage workers, creating an underclass on both sides of the border, with migration as a symptom of economic disparities.

Mexico, a key US oil supplier, is asserting control over its energy resources, nationalizing and tightening oversight, challenging US corporations. Its push into renewables diversifies its portfolio, enhancing global leverage. Prioritizing domestic energy could disrupt US imports, forcing a strategic shift.

 Mexico has surpassed China as the top US trade partner.

 » In fact, the most direct and simplest way for the US to reindustrialize would be to 

militarily occupy Mexico and use it as a substitute for China in its economic system. «  

Mexican labor movements demand better wages and conditions, undermining the cheap labor model, potentially raising US consumer prices. Environmental activists push for sustainable practices, challenging resource exploitation.

 

Amid the US-China trade war, Mexico is a nearshoring hub, benefiting from USMCA and proximity. China’s investments in Mexico create a trade triangulation, with Chinese components assembled in Mexico for US export, bypassing tariffs. Mexico negotiates favorable terms with both powers, gaining strategic autonomy.

Reference:
Richard D. Wolff (September 17, 2025) - Mexico Is About to Change Everything for the US. (video)

 

 

Richard D. Wolff, American Marxist economist known for works like "Democracy at Work,"

is teaching at the University of Massachusetts Amherst and The New School.

 

See also:
TPR (January 24, 2025) - Mexico's Strategic Position in China's Maritime Silk Road of the Americas.

TPR (September 12, 2024) - Failed US Regime Change Attempt in Mexico. 

TPR (August 18, 2024) - Mexico Pivoting Away From Washington’s Grip. 
Andrés Manuel López Obrador (May 8, 2024) - The US is in Decline and Desperate Need to Modernize.

How America Became a Financialized Rentier Economy | Jiang Xueqin

From 1950 to 1980, America’s economy was mainly focused on manufacturing. Manufacturing made up 40% of GDP, generated 40% of profits, and employed 30% of the workforce. If you were a factory worker between 1950 and 1980, life was good. You worked 40 hours a week, had health insurance, could buy a home, and your wife didn’t have to work. Families raised three to four kids, owned two cars, took vacations every year, dined out weekly, and retired with solid pensions. 

» The US economy has shifted from production to speculation. «

 

After 1980 came the Reagan Revolution and the rise of neoliberalism, an economic philosophy centered on free markets and deregulation. Since then, the US economy has been financialized. Today, financial services account for 22% of GDP, while manufacturing has fallen from 40% to just 10%. Financial services now generate 40% of all corporate profits but employ only 5% of the workforce.

These numbers reflect a radical transformation of American society. From 1950 to 1980, workers had political power. As a confident middle class, they joined unions and participated in politics. Today, most of that power has shifted to Wall Street and to the professional-managerial elite—highly educated, coastal, Ivy-League graduates clustered in New York, Washington, Boston, and San Francisco. This elite, multicultural and financially dominant, has become the most powerful political bloc in America. As a result, government policy increasingly favors them at the expense of workers. That’s the first major shift: political influence moving from labor to finance.

Education reflects this change. In the 1950s and 1960s, graduates of top schools often aspired to be professors, scientists, entrepreneurs, or corporate executives. Today, nearly all want to go to one place: Wall Street. Why? Because that’s where the money is. The brightest PhDs in statistics and artificial intelligence—who might otherwise be developing breakthrough technologies at IBM—are instead running hedge-fund algorithms, speculating with other people’s money.

The US economy has shifted from production to speculation. Financial services don’t create goods; they move money around to make more money. It’s not productive—it’s speculative. And America’s smartest minds are devoted to it. This shift has made the economy far more unstable. In 2001 came the dot-com crash. In 2008, the subprime mortgage crisis. More recently, multiple banks collapsed in a single week.

Why? Bubbles. Housing, stocks, and other assets are all overpriced. People gamble on the assumption prices will always rise. When bubbles burst, the result is volatility, instability, and uncertainty. That’s bad for the economy. Inequality has also surged. The top 1% now capture a vastly greater share of wealth, and the gap keeps widening.

In short, financialization has been destructive. It has made politics more divisive, the economy more volatile, and redirected the nation’s best talent into speculation rather than innovation. Young people today struggle to own homes. Many rent indefinitely, with little hope of upward mobility. This is the rentier economy: when ownership is out of reach, people are locked out of building wealth. Instead of producing, many speculate—buying Bitcoin or chasing bubbles.

Reference:

Jiang Xueqin (September 24, 2025) - Why Young Americans Can’t Buy Homes Anymore. (video)

"If I Were Iran, I’d Wipe Israel Out Preemptively" | Col. Lawrence Wilkerson

If I were in charge of Iran’s military right now, I would destroy Israel. It could be done in forty-eight hours. Iran would have considerable leverage if Israel were a smoking ruin. Fait accompli. Then I would announce to the United States: "You want to fight? We’ve got lots of capabilities left, but we don’t want to fight you."

 

 » More than a million and a half Jews have already left Israel. «

If Israel were burning, falling apart, and collapsing — and God forbid they were to use nuclear weapons — I would then say to the United States: “Let’s stop. We’ve gotten rid of the enemy. You can rush to help them fix themselves, but you’re not going to be fortunate because we really destroyed them. If you want to fight further, we will, but we’d prefer not to." 

 

I would say: “We’ve taken care of the enemy. The enemy was running rampant; it was killing Palestinians at an unfathomable rate. It was committing genocide. We did what the International Court of Justice should have done. We did what the UN should have done. We did what you should have done. Now, we don’t want to fight you over it. So let’s stop."

 

Quoted from:
Col. (ret.) Lawrence Wilkerson (October 5, 2025) - Iran War Is Now Imminent: The Point of No Return. (video)

Civilization End: The Decline and Fall of the American Empire | Jiang Xueqin

Americans want to feel virtuous. But as America becomes poorer and more desperate, this virtue will fade away, and the raw, brutal power of America will express itself throughout the world.

Jiang Xueqin, a Yale graduate with a B.A. in English Literature, is a Beijing-based former Deputy Principal at Tsinghua University High School, and education reformer. Today, he independently teaches anthropology, philosophy, history, and geopolitics to Beijing high school students and runs an English YouTube channel on "Predictive History," using historical patterns, game theory, and geopolitics to forecast global events.

This will eventually lead to the final conflict — the war between Iran and the United States. Iran has been preparing for this for a long time, and ever since 1979, America has been preparing too. This conflict will be World War III, and I cannot overstate how brutal this conflict will be. 

 

It will bring fundamental changes to the world, and our lives will never be the same again. Everything we have known in the past will be gone forever, and we must prepare for a new future. I know this is depressing. This last year we have gone into the heart of darkness of humanity, and the world looks more and more terrible. But remember this — and this is my final message to you: 

 

The greatest minds of humanity — Homer, Dante, Immanuel Kant — have all told us the same thing. They have all revealed one secret of the universe, one message: imagination is the animating force of the universe, and love is the unifying force of the universe.

What this means is this: in the darkest times, when all hope seems lost and there is only despair, any of us can rise up, stand up, and be the light to lead us forward. That is the task ahead of us if we are to save us. So remember this: we all have the capacity to imagine, and we all have the capacity to love. That is what makes us human. In the worst times, we must defend our own humanity.

Quoted from:
Jiang Xueqin (June 12, 2025) - Civilization End: The Decline and Fall of the American Empire. (video) 

  

The Messianic Callings of Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Ali Khamenei:

What's inside the minds of the chosen ones. 

 

See also:
Jiang Xueqin (October 3, 2025) - America is an Anti-Civilization. (video)

Gold and Silver: Medium- and Long-Term Cycles | Branimir Vojcic

Everyone’s talking about Gold and Silver. They have had stellar moves, but which one is really set to shine next? 

Gold is about to take the lead over Silver in the coming 3 months, based on the powerful 36-week cycle. But here’s the catch: focusing on just one cycle can sometimes leave you blindsided. Multiple cycles sometimes tell a different story.

Gold may be forming a blow-off top, but it still holds some near-term potential. Long-term Hurst cycle analysis predicts a multi-year cycle trough around 2030.

Silver — often referred to as "poor man's gold" — has been on the rise, but long-term Hurst cycles suggest a multi-year trough in late 2029, give or take.

Reference:
Branimir Vojcic (October 4, 2025) - Everyone’s talking about Gold and Silver.

Branimir Vojcic (September 24, 2025) - Gold and Silver Cycles: Exploring Near-Term Potential and Long-Term Troughs. (video)

Unlocking the "Years-Ending-in-5" Market Signal | Jake Bernstein

One of the most reliable patterns I’ve observed in markets appears in years ending in the number five. It is simple: take the January high of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. If the market records two consecutive monthly closes above that high, history shows a strong rally often follows into early December or even year-end. This is a purely mechanical setup; without the two closes, the pattern remains dormant.

Detrended Weekly Seasonal Composite Future chart for the S&P 500 from 1942 to 2024.

Looking back, the results are striking. In 1995, the trigger led to a more than twenty percent advance. 1985 produced roughly fifteen percent, 1975 seven to ten percent, and even 1965, after a brief pullback, ended higher by about five percent. Earlier examples include 1955 with fifteen percent, and 1935 and 1945 each with nearly thirty percent rallies. Not every “five” year triggers the setup—as in 2005 and 2015—but when it does, the outcome has consistently favored the bulls.

 Dow Jones (monthly bars), 2025.

» If the market records two consecutive monthly closes above the January high, history shows a strong rally often follows into year-end. This is a purely mechanical setup; without the two closes, the pattern remains dormant. « 

In 2025, we already have one monthly close above the January high [¿?]. If October confirms with a second [¿? would be the third], the trigger will be set. With only November and December remaining, history suggests that these final months could deliver substantial gains, just as in previous “five” years.

Not every “5” year produces a trigger (e.g., 2015, 2005),

but when it does, the outcome has often been significant.

 

The pattern is neither perfect nor guaranteed, but the Dow’s record demonstrates that when it occurs, the probabilities strongly favor a significant year-end advance.

Reference:
Jake Bernstein (October 2, 2025) - Unlocking the Years-Ending-in-5 Market Signal. (video)

Detrended Weekly Seasonal Composite for the S&P 500 from 2001 to 2025.

See also:

Jake Bernstein (2025) - seasonaltrader.com
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (October 2, 2025) - S&P 500 Year-End Outlook: Strong Seasonal Setup Targets 7100.

Wayne Whaley (September 27, 2025) - S&P After 10%+ First Three Quarters and Positive September.  

Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.

 David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin.

S&P 500 Year-End Outlook: Strong Seasonal Setup Targets 7100 | Jeff Hirsch

The S&P 500 heads into Q4 with strong momentum after setting September all-time highs, a rare event that has almost always preceded year-end rallies. 

 

Post-Election Year most bullish in 4-Year Presidential Cycle since 1985.

The post-election year is historically the most bullish phase of the four-year cycle, and 2025’s unusually strong May–October stretch strengthens the case for further gains.

September new all-time highs historically bullish for Q4.

 

S&P 500 performance after top 20 greatest Worst Six Months (May-October):

No losses in Q4 and up >5% since 1950.

 

Q4 Market Magic. 

  

October’s volatility often marks a final shakeout before the market’s “Best Six Months” (November–April) and the NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” (November–June). These periods, long captured by tactical switching strategies, have consistently outperformed and now align with a market already in record territory.

 

2026 Outlook: Midterm Bottom Picker's Paradise.

50% Profit Possible from 2026 Low to 2027 High.

 

Recent pullbacks tied to AI earnings and fiscal risks have been shallow, leaving breadth and trend intact. With growth solid, inflation contained, and policy bias shifting toward support, the seasonal and macro backdrop favors continuation of the bull run. We project the S&P 500 to reach 7,100 by year-end, a gain of roughly 20 percent.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (September 30, 2025) - S&P 7100 By Yearend! Your Roadmap to a Monster Q4 Rally. (video)

 

See also:

Jeff Hirsch (September 25, 2025) - October Seasonality of US Stock Indexes in Post-Election Years. 

Wayne Whaley (September 27, 2025) - S&P After 10%+ First Three Quarters and Positive September. 

Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.

 David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin.

Cosmic Cluster Days | October 2025

Heliocentric Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) and financial markets do not display a consistent polarity or directional bias. The 'noise channel' serves as a signal filter, with the upper and lower limits of the channel being empirically defined. That said, swing directions, along with swing highs and lows also within the 'noise channel,' may correlate with or coincide with short-term market trends and reversals.

 

Cosmic Cluster Days  |   Composite Line  |  Noise Channel 

 ○ = Full Moon | ● = New Moon | ▴  = Lunar Declination max North and ▾ = max South |  立春 =  Solar Terms

 

Cosmic Cluster Days in October 2025: 

Sep 24 (Wed) | Oct 02 (Thu) | Oct 20 (Mon) | Oct 21 (Tue) | Oct 26 (Sun) | Oct 28 (Tue) | Nov 07 (Fri)

   

For previous CCDs, click [HERE]. For background on the author, the concept, and the calculation method, click [HERE].

 

Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Turning Points in Q4, 2025.

 Oct 02 (Thu) = helio (L) | Oct 05 (Sun) = helio (H) | Oct 08 (Wed) = geo (L) | Oct 15 (Wed) = helio (L) | Oct 24 (Fri) = helio (H) | 

Oct 28 (Tue) = geo (H) | Oct 29 (Wed) = helio (L) | 2025 Oct 30 (Thu) = helio (H) | Nov 02 (Sun) = helio (L) 

 

Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Turning Points in 2025, click [HERE]. 

Sensitive Degrees of the Sun, click [HERE].

Planet Speed (Retrogradity), click [HERE].   

Planetary Declinations, click [HERE].

Lunation Cycle, click [HERE].  

The SoLunar Rhythm  in October 2025.

 

See also:

Malcolm Bucholtz (September 20, 2025) - Heliocentric Planetary Events and Financial Markets.

S&P After 10%+ First Three Quarters and Positive September | Wayne Whaley

Since 1950, whenever the S&P 500 gained 10% or more in the first three quarters and September was positive, the fourth quarter has historically been positive 80% of the time (16 out of 20 years). The average gain for the fourth quarter during these years is 4.42%. The best performance observed was +11.36%, while the worst was a loss of -1.26%.

Looking at 2025, as of September 27, with only two trading days left in the month, the first three quarters of the year have seen a total gain of 12.96%, with 2.84% of that gain coming from September alone.

 

October: The market has been negative in October 55% of the time (9 years up, 11 down) with an average loss of -0.44%. The best performance was +4.46%, while the worst was -6.86%.

October 20–27: During this specific period, the market has been down 80% of the time (4 years up, 16 down), with an average decline of -1.29%. The best performance was +1.22%, and the worst was -8.23%.

November: In contrast, November has been positive 80% of the time (16 years up, 4 down), with an average gain of +3.41%. The best was a gain of +10.24%, while the worst was a decline of -1.89%.

December: December has been positive 75% of the time (15 years up, 5 down), with an average gain of +1.47%. The best performance was +5.25%, and the worst was -3.39%.

Combining November and December, the performance has been positive 90% of the time (18 years up, 2 down), with an average gain of 4.81%. The best combined performance was +13.57%, while the worst was a modest -0.45%.

The average absolute drawdown in the fourth quarter was -2.66%. The worst was -8.64%, though the period also saw potential upside gains of up to +12.00%.

  

Reference:

Wayne Whaley, September 27, 2025.

 

 

 

See also:

Jeff Hirsch (September 25, 2025) - October Seasonality of US Stock Indexes in Post-Election Years.
Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.

 David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin.  

October Seasonality of US Stock Indexes in Post-Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

October has typically opened on a soft note, with mixed results on its first trading day. The second day has tended to be weak—except for the Russell 2000—before a rebound on day three. 

 

That strength often gives way to further declines through the seventh or eighth trading day, where the market has historically found support and begun a rally lasting into mid-month and beyond. In post-election years since 1950, October has been stronger from the outset, with gains extending through the 15th or 16th trading day before fading into month-end.

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (September 25, 2025) - Typical October Performance: Choppy Recent Years but Stronger in Post-Election Years.

The S&P 500 is bullishly defying bearish expectations, setting five or more new all-time highs in historically bearish September. With our best-case 2025 forecast firmly in play and the Super AI-Tech Boom accelerating, the index could surge to 7,100 within the next three months.

 Detrended Seasonality Charts.

 

See also:
Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.

US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025 | Larry Williams

Current market cycles suggest near-term weakness across the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones. The same pattern that accurately forecasted last April’s rally now points to a pullback. 

 

» Expect weakness in Bitcoin, gold, and stocks in the near term. Not a bear market yet, 

but caution is warranted. Cycles and fundamentals together suggest a pullback is ahead. «

 

The 255-day S&P cycle, which has consistently identified past buy and sell points, indicates we are in a weak phase lasting into spring 2026, with the next major buying opportunity around the turn of the year.

 

 » The S&P has a 255-day cycle. Historically, it has nailed buy and sell points 

remarkably well. Right now, we are in the weak part of that cycle. «

This weakness is not expected to trigger a crash, but rather a corrective phase after a strong run, followed by a probable year-end rally. The 2025 forecast of a bullish trend and March buying opportunity proved accurate; the 2026 outlook projects early weakness, then a recovery.

Fundamentally, stocks are overvalued relative to bonds and gold, historically a precursor to declines. This reinforces caution, even without technical confirmation. 

 

» Yes, maybe some weakness—but nothing like 1929 or 1970. 

So, I wouldn’t jump to Dalio’s conclusions. «

Ray Dalio has warned of an 80-year cycle implying severe turmoil. However, analysis of past instances (1863, 1946) shows mostly sideways markets rather than major collapses. The cycle may suggest weakness but not systemic crisis.

In summary: expect a corrective phase in equities, with parallel declines in gold and Bitcoin, but no imminent bear market. Year-end rally potential remains, and cycles continue to provide reliable foresight.

Reference:
Larry Williams (September 24, 2025)  - Old Dogs, New Tricks: Bitcoin and Gold, and what's next for stocks. (video)

 17:19 - NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow Jones  

20:33 - Stocks Overvalued and 80 Year Cycle?

 

The 13-Week Cycle in Stocks.
 

See also:

Larry Williams (December 24, 2024) - 2025 US Stock Market Outlook: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly.

 Ray Dalio (April 7, 2025) - Don't Make the Mistake of Thinking That What's Now Happening is Mostly About Tariffs.