S&P 500 in Wyckoff Markdown Phase | Major Low in July

In Wyckoff's Distribution Schematic, the S&P 500 (ES) has completed the Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) and the Test of Upthrust (TOU) sequence near the upper boundary of the trading range (Phase D). 

 The blue circle marks the current location of the S&P 500.

 

Following the Last Point of Supply (LPSY – Return to ICE) and the Major Sign of Weakness (MSOW), the S&P transitioned into clear Failure to Improve and Markdown type price action (Phase E) outside the trading range (Phases A to D). The decline is characterized by repeated failures to reclaim prior support levels, expanding supply, and the absence of sustained demand sponsorship. 

 

The Eternal Recurrence of the Same Wyckoff Cycle.

Any rally and retracement in April will likely be choppy and shallow and reflect Re-Distribution within the current Markdown Phase, which is expected to resume into July or even October. Measured from the April 2025 low to the January 2026 high, the absolute minimum downside target for the ES markdown is the 50% retracement near 5,940; however, in 2026 a deeper decline of 20%+ to around 5,350 or 4,830 is far more likely.

 

See also:

Alex Krainer (March 27, 2026) - Classic S&P 500 Smart Money vs Dumb Money Rebound Setup. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 25, 2026) - April Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years. 

Branimir Vojcic (March 23, 2026) - S&P 500 Outlook: Late March Low, May Peak, October Low.

TPR (March 19, 2026) - 20-Week Cycle Low in the S&P 500 and US Stock Indexes | Major Low in July.

S&P 500 – Bearish Structure and 7% Downside Setup | Justin Bennett

On the 4 hour chart, a bearish Break of Structure (BoS) confirms sellers remain in control, so the focus stays on short setups. Just below current price sits a key daily support level (equal lows), which also functions as a weekly external low—making it structurally critical.

 » On the daily time frame, a fair value gap (FVG or imbalance) stands out as a critical zone for the coming week. 

This gap has not yet been fully mitigated, leaving unfinished business in the market. «

S&P 500 (4 hour candles).

For next week, the primary setup is a rally into a daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) that has not yet been mitigated. If price trades into this area—especially into premium above recent highs—the objective is to wait for a lower time frame Change of Character (CHoCH) before entering shorts. No confirmation, no trade.

 » Price always moves from liquidity to inefficiency and vice versa, or from internal liquidity to external liquidity and vice versa. «

Longer term, a weekly close below the external low would signal acceptance and a higher timeframe shift. That opens the path toward a large unmitigated weekly imbalance, implying roughly a ~7% downside move (toward the 6,000 region).

 

» The next logical target is a large unmitigated weekly imbalance left behind by a strong displacement candle. 

This zone has never been retested and represents a magnet for price. Projecting into that imbalance suggests a

potential move of approximately 7% to the downside, bringing the S&P 500 toward just above the 6,000 level. «

S&P 500 (weekly candles).

  

In short: bearish structure, wait for a retrace into imbalance, confirm weakness, then target continuation lower.

 

Reference:

Justin Bennett (March 20, 2026) - S&P 500: This Is Only The Beginning (7% Drop). (video). 

[obviously recorded before the March 20 market open.] 

 

S&P 500 (4-hour candles; March 20 market close): bearish 4-hour FVGs and Premium/Discount levels.

Nasdaq (4-hour candles; March 20 market close): bearish 4-hour FVGs and Premium/Discount levels.

 

 

    

See also:

 JadeCap (2026) - All Five ICT Entry Models Explained. 

orderbloque (2025) - Market Logic Based on Liquidity, Volume, and Inefficiency.

Michael J. Huddleston (2023) - ICT Liquidity - The Financial Market's Zero Sum Game. 

WadeFX (2021) - Market Structure and Powerful Setups.

Richard D. Wyckoff (1931) - Accumulation and Distribution Schematics.

Price Action Patterns & Entries at High and Low of the Day | Cameron Benson

Our focus is on price action trading at key levels: daily high and low, and the previous day's extremes. We examine how price reaches these levels — through Stair-Stepping or Ramping — and its subsequent behavior. The price action patterns include M's, W's, Double Tops/Bottoms, and Pin Hammers at daily highs and lows. 

 

 Stair-Stepping and M Patterns: These indicate potential reversals at daily highs or lows, 

with detailed entries and exits often managed through lower time frames.

Ramping is characterized by parabolic price movements and often leads to swift reversals. Observing tight candle patterns with minimal overlap helps identify strong trends and potential breakouts. We also look for specific patterns like Stair-Stepping and Three Pushes, with Peak Formations signaling possible reversals.

 

 Ramping Behavior: Recognized by tight, parabolic moves followed by rapid reversals. 

The ramp into extremes usually signals significant price shifts.

The following 5 minute charts of the NASDAQ are from last week (September  9-13, 2024). They show Entry and Exit Strategies, using Pin Hammers and Engulfments for Entries, and managing stops based on price action, with adjustments for larger, more volatile bars.

Monday, September  9 (Day 1 of 3 Day Cycle):

 

 Identified an M pattern at the high of the day with a pin hammer and engulfment, suggesting a strong short entry.

Tuesday, September  10 (Day 2):

 

Despite a promising setup, a large entry bar resulted in a stop-out. 

Emphasis on avoiding large entry bars and managing risk.

 

Wednesday, September 11 (Day 3/1): 

 

 Similar to previous days with M patterns and engulfments, also highlighting entry points and risk management.

Thursday (Day 2) and Friday (Day 3), September 12-13:

 

 Charts show patterns like descending triangles and W formations, 

with a focus on understanding price behavior relative to session timings.

 

Successful short-term trading relies on recognizing and acting upon the above presented price action patterns, managing entries and exits based on contextual behavior, and adapting strategies according to the specific market conditions within the 3 Day Cycle.

 

Reference:
Cameron Benson (September 14, 2024) - Price Action High And Low Of The Day (Day Trading Entries)(video) 
Cameron Benson (September 14, 2024) - Price Action High And Low Of The Day (Day Trading Entries)(pdf)
Cameron Benson (June 16, 2024) - The Complete 3 Day Cycle Short-Term Trading System.

Stacey Burke (December 5, 2023) - The Three Day Cycle & Parabolic Trade Setups.
Cameron Benson (August 20, 2023) - Three-Push Reversal Patterns.

 Richard D. Wyckoff (August 30, 2024) - Re-Accumulation & Re-Distribution Range Patterns.

Richard D. Wyckoff (December 21, 2022) - Accumulation & Distribution Schematics.  

Re-Accumulation and Re-Distribution Range Patterns | Richard D. Wyckoff

The Re-Accumulation process is exactly identical to the Accumulation process. The only difference between the two is the way the structure begins to develop. While the Accumulation range begins by stopping a bearish movement, the Re-Accumulation range begins after the stop of an upward movement. Re-accumulation and re-distribution generally unfold in four distinct continuation range patterns.

 

 Anatomy of a Trading Range, Jim Forte, 1994.

 

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (4 hour bars - August 15-30, 2024) — Distribution or Re-Accumulation?

Distribution Schematic #3 in Phase C or Re-Accumulation with Spring Action in Phase D ?

 

 

 The Eternal Recurrence of the Same.

 

   The 4 Phases of Richard D. Wyckoff's Market Cycle:

(1.) Accumulation, (2.) Mark Up, (3.) Distribution, (4.) Mark Down.

To put it another way: A Re-Accumulation occurs during a longer-term up trend, which will continue in the future. The main street is finally on the right side as well. Inside a Wyckoff Re-Accumulation schematic, buyers are closing parts of their long positions and sellers are joining the market. With the incoming selling positions, market makers can fill new long positions again.

 4 Types of Re-Accumulation Ranges a.k.a. Continuation Patterns a.k.a. Trend Continuation:

(1.) Re-Accumulation after a Decline.
(2.) Re-Accumulation with Spring Action.
(3.) Re-Accumulation after a Shakeout.
(4.) Re-Accumulation with an Uprising Structure.

The 4 Re-Distribution types are simply the opposite (lower 4 schematics):

(1.) Re-Distribution after a Rally.
(2.) Re-Distribution with Spring Action.
(3.) Re-Distribution after a Shakeout.
(4.) Re-Distribution with a Declining Structure.

 Examples of different types of Re-Accumulation Patterns in the Apple (AAPL) Weekly Chart.

 

The events and phases are still the same (see the Accumulation and Distributions Schematics - the last 4 charts). Only the beginning of the Re-Accumulation cycle is different and equals the start of a distribution cycle. Take a look at the Wyckoff distribution schematics below for the occurring events. The main events that differ from an accumulation or distribution cycle are the occurrences of the Creek. The Creek is a small trend over time and can equal a smaller consolidation. The Creek builds liquidity on both sides of the market and misleads market participants. The Jump Across the Creek (JAC) is the event that causes the SoS. The Jump Across the Creek does take out previous resistance lines with a strong up move. The Jump Across the Creek can also occur inside the trading range of the accumulation. The Creek can be the horizontal resistance defined by Phases A and B or an internal trend line that formed inside Phase B.

• After the spring and test events, there is a bullish price move with momentum. This is called the Jump Across the Creek. Price continues with a bullish Phase E.
• Usually, any shakeout and/or decline action before Re-Accumulation will have a local smaller distribution pattern (cause and effect).
• The Initial Shakeout/Decline is less pronounced during Re-Accumulation than before Accumulation.
• Volume: Re-Accumulation usually has less supply than Accumulation.
• The maximum swing of trading range (highest to lowest point): Re-Accumulation trading range is usually tighter compared with an Accumulation trading range.

 (1.) Re-Accumulation after a Decline

 

• Weakest among the Re-Accumulation types.
• Decline usually starts from a small local distribution pattern.
• It can have different variations of the trading range (see the structure of the next 3 formations).

(2.) Re-Accumulation with Spring Action

 

• Flat or sloping down formation.
• It can potentially have a few lower lows with a spring being the lowest point of the trading range.
• Leading stocks can exhibit short-term weakness after strength in this formation.

(3.) Re-Accumulation after a Shakeout

 

• Absorption of supply happens in the trading range without violation of support.
• Usually and depending on a position of the market, this pattern exhibits strength.

(4.) Re-Accumulation with an Uprising Structure 

 

• Re-Accumulation with an Uprise is the strongest Re-Accumulation type.
• This structure will exhibit higher highs / higher lows.
• Sometimes can be confused with a topping trading range (Distribution).

 

 

 Accumulation Schematic #1: Phases A and B.

 Accumulation Schematic #1: Phases C, D and E.

 

 Distribution Schematic #3: Phases A, B, C, D and E = the Inversion of the  Accumulation Schematic #1

 

The Re-Distribution occurs inside a markdown cycle and stops a down-trend for a longer period. After bigger price moves even Main Street joins the trend. Now it is time for the market makers to bring the price into a consolidation phase to scare sellers and bring in new buyers. That ensures new liquidity for the institution’s to place new short orders. The start of a Wyckoff Re-Distribution schematic is the same as an Accumulation cycle. A Creek inside the trading range creates liquidity on both sides of the market, which gets taken by a UTAD. Many people will see this as a break-out to join bullish price action, but don’t get fooled. With a Jump across the Creek, the price is not only returning into the trading range but going to continue the downtrend from before.

 

 

  Distribution Schematic #2: Phases A and B.

 

 Distribution Schematic #2: Phases C, D and E.

 

Many believe that simply labeling the events is sufficient for detecting Wyckoff cycles. Don't forget that a supposed Distribution can become a Re-Accumulation or an Accumulation a Re-Distribution. Therefore, it is essential to presuppose a fundamental market analysis and confirm a Wyckoff cycle with COT data, Seasonality, or other longer-term confirmations. Don't make the mistake of looking for Accumulations and Distributions in lower time frames. It is easy to draw a supposed accumulation on a 5-minute chart, but a real Accumulation takes place in higher time frames. Since a Wyckoff cycle takes time to unfold, wait for the events to occur and be fully validated. Otherwise, one quickly get s distracted by the noise within the actual moves and makes bad trading decisions in the worst case. 

 

Wyckoff Theory Simplified (by JeaFx).  

 

Bruce Fraser (January 30, 2020) - Distribution or Re-Accumulation? 

Reference:

Richard D. Wyckoff (December 21, 2022) - Accumulation & Distribution Schematics. 

 Rubén Villahermosa Chaves (2019)  - The Wyckoff Methodology in Depth. How to trade financial markets logically.

Jim Forte (1994) - Anatomy of a Trading Range.
Hank Pruden & Max Lichtenstein (2006) - Wyckoff Schematics - Visual Templates for Market Timing Decisions.

WyckoffAnalytics.com (2022) - Richard D. Wyckoff - His Method and Story.

Matt LeTrader (2022) - Composite Man: A Journey through the Trading Range. 

Roman Bogomazov (2022) - Wyckoff Method Trading and Education.

Quarterly Theory - London and New York AM & PM Setups | Darya Filipenka

 

A 90 minute cycle either plays out as an AMD-X or as a X-AMD pattern:

A = Accumulation/Consolidation (required for a cycle to occur)
M = Manipulation/Expansion
D = Distribution/Expansion
X = Reversal or Continuation

 

Q1 dictates Q2, Q3 and Q4.

If Q1 accumulates (A), Q2 expands (M).

If Q2 accumulates (A), Q4 expands (D).
If Q1 expands, Q2 accumulates, Q3 expands and Q4 accumulates.
If Q2 expands, Q3 accumulates.
If Q2 expands, Q3 accumulates.
If Asia expands, skip London, trade NY and skip the PM session.
If Asia consolidates, trade London, skip NY, then trade the PM Session.
London is more prone to make the high/low of the day whenever Asia consolidates. 

Anticipate price to run the high if you are bearish or the low if you are bullish.
Tuesday is more prone to make the high/low of the week whenever Monday consolidates.
Best trading days will have consolidation during the Asian Session. 

 

 Quarterly Phase Transitions and Trading Session Strategies.

 

Possible Quarterly Phase Transitions:

• Accumulation → Expansion: The initial phase A often begins with Accumulation, where price movement remains within a narrow range. This will transition into an expansion phase M.
• Expansion → Retracement or Reversal: Within the expansion phase, the market can either experience a retracement, where prices pull back temporarily before continuing in the same direction, or a reversal, where the trend changes direction entirely.
• Retracement → Expansion or Reversal: A retracement, which involves a temporary pullback in prices, can be followed by either an expansion phase or a reversal, depending on how traders react to the retracement.
• Reversal → Expansion or Retracement: Following a reversal, where the trend direction changes, the market can enter either an expansion phase or a retracement, as traders adapt to the new direction.
• Expansion → Retracement → Another Leg Up/Down: After an expansion phase, a retracement may occur, followed by another price movement in the same direction, often resulting in another leg up or down in the overall trend.
• Expansion → Reversal: In the expansion phase, a trend reversal can occur, leading to a shift in price direction.

 

Impossible Quarterly Phase Transitions:

• Accumulation → Reversal: A direct transition from Accumulation to reversal is not likely, as Accumulation represents a phase of price stabilization, whereas reversal involves a significant change in trend direction.
• Accumulation → Retracement: Similarly, a direct transition from Accumulation to retracement is unlikely, as Accumulation involves a range-bound price movement, while retracement implies a temporary pullback in an existing trend.
• Accumulation → Expansion → Accumulation: After an expansion phase, transitioning directly back into another Accumulation is not a common occurrence. The expansion phase typically leads to further price movement or potential retracement/reversal.
• Retracement → Reversal: Transitioning directly from a retracement to a reversal without an intermediate expansion phase is improbable, as retracement represents a temporary pause within a trend, whereas reversal involves a fundamental shift in trend direction.

  

Reference:

 Darya Filipenka a.k.a. LumiTraders (2023) - The Quarterly Theory.

Daye (2023) - The Quarterly Theory.

Funded Teacher (Jan 15, 2024) - Quarterly Theory. (video)

Richard D. Wyckoff (1931) - The Wyckoff Method of Trading in Stocks.