S&P 500 Cycle Analysis - Time and Price Projections | Steve Miller

SPX (monthly bars)

SPY (weekly bars)

SPY (daily bars)

SPX (daily bars): ideal 21 Trading Day cycle trough November 6 (Wed) ± 3 days.

VIX (daily bars)

Looking at weekly, daily, and intraday charts, our proprietary indicators indicate a strong bullish sentiment, with the SPY, and QQQ showing very bullish trends. While corrections are often anticipated, the market conditions do not suggest a need to short at this time. The S&P weekly chart remains strong, showing no signs of a peak yet. Although historical valuations are high, there is currently no indication of an impending downturn.

However, we also need to consider potential downside projections. While the market is currently strong, indicators and cycles suggest that we should be cautious as we approach the election period. We anticipate a pullback of approximately 6-10%, with the potential to reach new highs afterward. While cyclical patterns indicate possible declines in Q3 or Q4, our analysis suggests that major corrections might be more pronounced in November or December.

We are experiencing an elevated VIX during a strong market, likely due to geopolitical tensions and the upcoming elections. Historically, such an elevated VIX during bullish trends raises questions about potential market peaks and whether investors are hedging against upcoming volatility. The cycles suggest that implied volatilities might rise sharply post-election, possibly reaching the mid-30s or higher.

Reference:

Steve Miller (October 19, 2024) - US Stock Market - S&P 500 SPY | Price Projections & Timing | Cycle and Chart Analysis. (video)

S&P Performance After Back-to-Back Double-Digit Years │ Wayne Whaley

The S&P was up 24.23% in 2023 and, as of October 19th, is up 22.95% in 2024. Barring a 10% correction in the last two months of this year, the S&P is positioned to post back-to-back double-digit years for the 25th time since 1930, which is the starting point of my S&P database.

 

Since 1930, the S&P has had 65 winning years out of 95 (68.4%), with an average annual gain of 7.9%. After back-to-back double-digit years, it has recorded 13 wins and 11 losses, with an average annual gain of 2.9%. Notably, since 1950, January results have been 7-12, with the last four being negative. The nine prior cases highlighted in yellow represent post-election years, where the S&P was 4-5, with an average gain of 1.5%.

There have been three occasions of at least four consecutive double-digit years: 1942-1945, 1949-1952, and five consecutive years during the early phase of the technology revolution from 1995-1999. This does not include the eight consecutive positive years in the 1980s, of which six were double-digit gains. Therefore, there is precedent for the rally to continue, especially if one believes we are in the second chapter of the technology revolution, driven by advances in AI.

Wayne Whaley — October 19, 2024.  

Esoteric Trumpism │ Constantin von Hoffmeister

For his supporters, Donald Trump is a bulwark of traditionalism and a champion of ‘America First’. For his detractors, he is a disruptive, deceitful agent of chaos. But a more philosophical approach frames him as a key figure in an eldritch struggle with deep-seated forces of decay. Esoteric Trumpism is a profound, almost mystical interpretation of Donald Trump’s political journey, situating him not merely within the framework of contemporary politics but as a figure of cosmic and world-historical significance. This interpretation posits that Trump’s rise and continued influence reflect deeper metaphysical catalysts at play in the twilight of Western civilization, as predicted by the historiographer Oswald Spengler in the 1920s and 1930s.

» Trump’s significance lies not in the man but in the archetype he embodies. « 

According to Spengler’s cyclical theory of history, every great culture passes through stages of growth, flowering, and decline, ultimately transforming into a civilization. A civilization, in Spengler’s view, is the final, ossified stage of a culture – marked by materialism, a dystopian government apparatus, and stagnation – where the original creative spirit has faded. In this phase, democratic institutions begin to decay, leading to the rise of autocratic leaders, or Caesars, who assert their will as the last defenders of the civilization’s final flickers of vitality. Trump, in this narrative, appears as a Caesar of the West, struggling against the forces of chaos and entropy that threaten to engulf the remnants of the culture’s achievements. 

The Swamp, in the context of Esoteric Trumpism, eclipses its conventional political metaphor as a term for entrenched, secretive, and subversive agencies. Instead, it takes on a life of its own, representing a primordial, chthonic entity whose tentacles have reached into the heart of American power. This is no mere political quagmire – it is an ancient force, predating the Republic itself, fueled by what can only be described as eldritch energies. Trump’s wrestle against this dark presence is painted in Lovecraftian tones, where the stakes are not just electoral victories or policy changes but the very soul of the nation. His presidency becomes a metaphysical battle, with Trump cast as a modern hero who, like Spengler’s envisioned Caesars, refuses to capitulate to the rot that envelops his civilization. Each executive order, every political maneuver, is understood as an audacious attempt to dismantle this machinery of the Great Old Ones that has operated unseen for centuries. Trump’s defiance is portrayed as a courageous, almost tragic stand against the inevitable. He fights not for personal gain but to stave off the encroaching darkness that looms over the West.

» Regardless of financial strength, political power and knowledge of previous history life cycles, 

no empire leader has ever been able to prevent its supremacy from collapsing. «

[...] Trump’s economic nationalism and policies aimed at restoring American autarky – through tariffs, immigration controls, and the reduction of global dependencies – are emblematic of a dying civilization’s last effort to preserve itself. Spengler wrote that as civilizations enter their final stages, the state becomes primarily an economic object, with the competition for resources and sovereignty taking precedence over other concerns. Trump’s trade wars with China and his efforts to revive American industry are therefore not merely political strategies but the actions of a Caesar seeking to preserve his people’s material and cultural autonomy in the face of an encroaching global order. These actions reflect the Spenglerian picture of a civilization striving to maintain its vitality, even as it approaches its unstoppable downfall.

[...] Trump’s significance lies not in the man but in the archetype he embodies. The rise of such Caesarian leaders does not promise material success; their triumph is symbolic, not in policies but in their rebellion against a senile and rabid world order. Trumpism, even as Trump’s personal influence fades, will persist as a movement that channels the existential fears of a civilization in freefall, longing for a return to integrity and self-expression. The power of the archetype lies in its resonance with a people alienated by the deep state – Trump articulates their despair, even as his achievements remain modest. His role is to act as the last expression of Western vitality, not to reverse the downward spiral but to embody the final brave spirit of a people grasping for survival in a world disintegrating into frenzied insanity. 

 

Quoted from:

Constantin von Hoffmeister (October 19, 2024) - Why Donald Trump is a mystical figure of historic proportions. 

 

See also:
Constantin von Hoffmeister interviews Alexander Wolfheze (October 11, 2024) - Globus Horribilis. (video)

Strong NYSE Breadth Indicates Liquidity is Abundant | Tom McClellan

Strong NYSE breadth says liquidity is plentiful.

A higher number of advancing stocks suggests bullish sentiment, 

more declining stocks bearish sentiment.

Tom McClellan — October 16, 2024.  

"No need to fear S&P 500 new all-time highs … until they cease."

Jeff Hirsch — October 17, 2024.

A doomed empire in the grips of morons and criminals.

Unconfirmed Uptrend According to Dow Theory | Stephen Suttmeier

The current position of Dow Theory is an unconfirmed uptrend, or bull market, with new highs for the Industrials (DJIA) and a lack of new highs for the Transports (DJT). 

Until the Transports confirm the highs on the Industrials, this bearish non-confirmation signal for Dow Theory is a market risk.

Stephen Suttmeier — October 17, 2024.

S&P 500 Weekly High Expected October 21-22 | Robert Miner

E-mini S&P 500 weekly high probable by next week, ideally around October 21-22 (Mon-Tue). Followed by a 2-3 week correction. And Election Year Fall to Year End net bullish trend.

Robert Miner — October 16, 2024. 

 

On Monday, October 14, the net percentage of S&P 500 members hitting 52-week highs reached the highest level (22%) since March. Forward returns for the S&P 500 have consistently been positive after strong readings in net new highs.

 

 Bespoke — October 16, 2024.

S&P 500 Cup-and-Handle Breakout Targets 5,930 & 6,180 | Stephen Suttmeier

The S&P 500 has experienced a bullish breakout from a cup-and-handle formation that formed between July and September, indicating potential upside targets of 5,930 and 6,180. 

Seasonal trends for the fourth quarter further support these targets. Last week’s tactical breakout appears strong, with support near the 5,775-5,745 range. Importantly, the cup-and-handle pattern remains intact as long as the S&P 500 stays above the 5,600s.

Stephen Suttmeier — October 15, 2024.  

Hurst Cycles Update for S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold, and Bitcoin | David Hickson

Reference:
David Hickson (October 14, 2024) - Early Cycle Troughs - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)

October Highs Are a 90% Bullish Indicator for 5% Q4 Gains | Ryan Detrick

Bulls smile when new highs are made in October, as the fourth quarter has historically seen gains 90% of the time, averaging a 5% return since 1950.

Ryan Detrick — October 10, 2024. 

 

Extended cash targets into Oct 16-17th are 5844-60 at least and then pullback may be brief and only hit 5800. The uppermost target is 5970-6009. We cannot negate that possibility yet but the later in the month it gets beyond Oct 21st or so the lesser the chances of it happening. NQ 100 looks like it will retest the July high in October which is 20971 on the continuation chart for futures with upper resistance at 21200. First resistance is at 20514 and then at 20771 and then 20800. We are keeping 21230 in our back pocket for later in the month, it seems less likely right away and Megacaps seem rather stretched out although they inched through key highs of the week.

 

Barry Rosen — October 9, 2024.

Budget Deficit Bullish for S&P 500 and Gold | Tom McClellan

The final stats are in for fiscal year 2024, and the federal debt in the U.S. grew by $2.297 trillion versus a year earlier, and as of September 30, 2024, the total debt stood at $35.465 trillion. 

 

[...] A rising debt load is a horrible thing, but it is a bullish thing. And trying to pay down the debt is a bearish thing. [...] And deficits are also really bullish for gold too.

 

Reference:

Tom McClellan (October 04, 2024) - Deficits Are Horrible, But They Are Bullish.

FEMA Funding Crisis Amid Hurricane Milton Threats: Why? | Lena Petrova

North Carolina is grappling with the devastating consequences of recent Hurricane Helene, while Florida now braces for Hurricane Milton, a 'Category 5' storm with winds reaching 180 miles per hour and potential storm surges of up to 15 feet. Milton is projected to make landfall early Thursday morning. Arguably the worst part about what is just hours away is that the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is running low on funds. 

 

Who. What. When. Where. How. Why.

Many Americans are questioning the allocation of federal resources, particularly as the government continues to send substantial aid to foreign allies, such as $18 billion to Israel and $175 billion to Ukraine, while domestic disaster response funding remains precarious. With back-to-back hurricanes testing FEMA's resources, a former deputy administrator warns of severe strain on the agency's capabilities.

Alejandro Mayorkas, Secretary of Homeland Security, 

overseeing immigration, disaster response, and national security efforts.

As Milton approaches, questions arise regarding FEMA's readiness to handle immediate and long-term recovery needs. The uncertainty surrounding available funds is compounded by predictions that Milton could cause unprecedented reinsurance losses, particularly if it strikes major urban areas like Tampa. 

» FEMA is a front for the Deep State Cartel to funnel money toward immigrants and wars. « 

None dare call it conspiracy.

This could result in extensive federal budget requirements to support displaced residents and rebuild critical infrastructure. The pressure on FEMA to respond effectively is mounting, with concerns about its capacity to manage the aftermath of this powerful storm.

Reference:
Lena Petrova (October 8, 2024) - REALITY CHECK: US Emergency Agency Is LOW ON CASH 

As Cat. 5 Hurricane Approaches Florida. (video)

Washington Is the Theater, and AIPAC Is Its Master Director | Gerry Nolan

Washington is the theater, and AIPAC is its master director. The Jewish lobby isn’t just influencing the stage, it’s commanding it. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian lobby, once a star under the blinding lights of a farcical “fight for democracy,” has been pushed backstage, outshone and outplayed. This is AIPAC steamrolling the competition, reminding everyone who’s boss in D.C. Zelenskyy, once the Biden-Harris golden boy, must now watch in dismay as his wartime PR campaign gets overshadowed by Netanyahu's. Why? Because in Washington, who pays, plays and AIPAC pays the most.

» The Jewish lobby isn’t just influencing the stage, it’s commanding it.  «

Biden-Harris having just fast-tracked an emergency bill for Israel, $14.3 billion in military aid - even as Ukraine's coffers dry up. It’s not just about the dollars, though. It’s about military presence, about visible backing. Israel gets U.S. boots on the ground, aircraft carriers parked in the Mediterranean, entire squadrons ready to act. Ukraine gets weapons, but never direct intervention, because risking nuclear-escalation with Russia might even be too suicidal for DC. AIPAC ensures there’s no doubt where American loyalties lie: it's the only lobby that can keep both Democrats and Republicans in lockstep, wrapped tightly around its finger, ready to finance Tel Aviv’s every whim.

'Bomb Iran' apprentice Trump without MAGA hat

at Schneerson tumb — October 7, 2024.

» Who pays, plays and AIPAC pays the most. «

This isn’t 2006 or 2014, this is a new era where the Axis of Resistance grows stronger while Western influence wanes. Ukraine’s war was sold as the defense of “Western democratic values”… but Israel’s wars, fueled by Western impunity and support, reveal the hypocrisy. Tel Aviv doesn't even listen to Washington's whisper; Netanyahu acts rogue, defying any American suggestion to hold back, bombing Gaza and Lebanon without a blink. Compare that to Kiev, which obediently follows U.S. cues, hoping to keep its dwindling support.

» And yet, AIPAC is untouchable. «

And yet, AIPAC is untouchable. It plays Congress like a well-rehearsed script. The Senators who fall in line are rewarded, their campaigns bankrolled, their loyalty cemented. For the Ukrainian lobby, there’s no place left at the table, there’s only room for one empire-backed war at a time, and AIPAC has made damn sure it’s their game, their rules, their profits. Zelenskyy might have once dreamed of the golden treatment Israel gets, but Washington is clear: the golden ticket belongs to AIPAC.

» Reminding everyone who’s boss in D.C. «

 

The Global Majority is watching this farce. The days when the empire could finance endless wars without consequences are coming to an end.

Why Netanyahu thinks America is stupid.

The façade is crumbling, what’s left is the stark, cold truth: AIPAC bought the show, and the Ukrainian lobby is left outside, knocking at a door that won’t open. When Washington is nothing more than a puppet stage, those who pull the strings decide the script. And for Zelenskyy, it looks like the curtain is falling fast.

Gerry Nolan — October 6, 2024.

October 27: Key Date for the Year-End Rally | Wayne Whaley

We examined the S&P's performance during the first nine months of 2024. The index finished September with an impressive 20.8% increase, having only faced one losing month in April, which saw a decline of 4.2%. Notably, all seven rolling quarters during this period were positive, comprising the months from January to March, February to April, and so on. This remarkable performance places 2024 among only 15 years since 1930 that experienced both a gain of over 10% in the first nine months and no negative rolling quarter within that same timeframe. It's significant to note that all instances occurred after 1950.

A closer look at the historical data from the previous 14 cases reveals a pattern: while there tends to be some weakness in the second week of October, this is often followed by an "End of Year" rally starting around October 27. In fact, 13 out of the 14 instances recorded were positive from that date through the end of the year, with only a minor fractional loss occurring in 1964. Worth noting, four of the last five years have also seen positive performances during the period from October 7 to 15.

Wayne Whaley — October 6, 2024.

When the SPX is up through 3Q in an election year, 4Q is up 89% of the time 

w/avg return of 4.98% (4.26% median), which equates to SPX 6,000 into yearend.

See also:

 Jeffrey A. Hirsch (October 1, 2024) - October Volatility After Big Gain First Three Quarters.

S&P 500 seasonal pattern for October of the election year 2024 in line with the decennial cycle — September 29, 2024.

Stephen Suttmeier (July 1, 2024) - S&P 500 seasonality: first ten sessions and last ten sessions of the month since 1928.

Jack Gillen (2009) - Year-End Rally, January Influence & Trend for the Year.

Touring the Destroyed Suburbs of Beirut | Laith Marouf & Mohammad Marandi

Dahieh, Beirut, Lebanon — October 3, 2024: Hezbollah's Media Relations Office organized a tour of Beirut's southern suburb, Dahieh, for all international journalists to give the world a glimpse of the mass destruction of civilian infrastructure as a result of the Zionist regime's indiscriminate bombardment of the area. We look at the destruction, the war crimes, and the purposeful targeting of civilians and civilian homes. The day after the first strikes, the Israelis targeted the south and east of Beirut and slaughtered 500 people. It's amazing how barbaric and brutal these people are. This is Western civilization. People across the world despise the West because of what they do.

They knew exactly that there were no military targets in these buildings. They wanted to humiliate our people and break our will, especially our warrior men. But Sayyidna Ali says: 'Hayhat aminna dulla; woe to us if we accept humiliation.' God willing, we will all meet in a free Palestine very soon. I am optimistic. Victory is nearing—a victory also for Jews. Those who are anti-Zionists will see the benefits of the collapse of the Zionist regime. Humanity will benefit from it. These elites in the West will lose, but everyone else will win. Inshallah.

A few hours ago, the leader of France, Macron, issued a statement saying that France is deploying all its military assets in the region to defend the Zionist colony. Brits and Americans are practically saying the same thing, indicating that these colonial powers, will actually participate in attacks on Iran.

Russians Show No Sign of Sanction Fatigue | The Hill

Absolutely stunning article in The Hill - about how "Russians must suffer but they live better than in the EU":

» Two and a half years into their nation’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russians seem to be less affected by the war than they were in 2022. Neither Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region nor the most recent Western sanctions seem to be igniting discontent among “ordinary” citizens or the affluent populations of Russia’s largest cities. This comes as a surprise to many Western policymakers and the Russian dissidents who invested some hope in Muscovites and Petersburgers becoming disgruntled with the “war economy,” as such luxuries as Western boutiques, unlimited internet use and even easy weekend trips to European capitals vanish.

The Hill's main audience are lawmakers, policymakers, and influential 

digital consumers, particularly in and around Washington, D.C.

[...] The Western sanctions imposed in 2022 caused a sharp fall in Russia’s capital exports. Almost all the money that would have previously been channeled into luxury European real estate instead started to flow into Moscow, St. Petersburg and their suburbs. Since 2021, the average dollar price of an apartment in Moscow has risen by a staggering 43 percent, and the city government has invested huge efforts into expanding transportation facilities and stimulating private businesses in the service sector to meet growing demand. [...] In the last ten years, 78 new stations of the Moscow underground were built — more than in the previous four decades —  and the commuter network was integrated into a broader railway system, now resembling the Paris Métro-RER network. The city now has the largest fleet of locally made all-electric buses in Europe, while river electric trams are bolstering Moscow’s transit infrastructure.

[...] Although Visa and MasterCard suspended their operations in Russia, Russians continue to use Central Bank’s Instantaneous Payments System, which allows the transfer of any amount of money using one’s mobile phone number as an identifier, immediately and without commission. Russia’s capital cities are now ahead of European metropolises in using QR-code payments and facial recognition in financial transactions, and mobile data in Russia remains the cheapest and fastest in Europe. Grocery shops feature the same assortment of goods as before the war, including French wine and Italian confectionary. On the top of that, doorstep delivery of food and goods by autonomous bots is commonplace. 

 

[...] Meanwhile, booming demand is driving up local wages. Moreover, the job offers have been so enticing in recent months that many Russians who left the country at the beginning of the war, are now returning after failing to integrate into European societies. Even Western celebrities like the developmental economist Jeffrey Sachs are starring in glamorous international events like the recent BRICS Urban Future Forum which attracted dozens of mayors of major cities across Asia, Africa and the Middle East. [...] This economic progress, partially caused by the West’s confrontational policy, has undermined the anti-Putin sentiments in the country much more than any other factor. 

The West’s attempt to undermine Russia economically since 2022 has thus produced an opposite result — at least so far. «

Quoted from:

The Hill (September 30, 2024) - Why do Russians appear so satisfied despite the war in Ukraine?

Europe’s Catastrophic Russian Problem | Wang Xiangsui

Europe is becoming the biggest loser in the Ukraine conflict, despite having fostered closer ties with Russia following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Europe is now actively cutting these ties in an effort to align with the US policies aimed at punishing Russia. 

 

But the price is dear. The largest economy prior to the Ukraine war, Europe is now facing the prospect of political divisions and security threats. Its insensible actions are not only compromising Europe's autonomy and increasing its military reliance on the US, but also disrupting its energy supply chains, in which Russia played an important part. So what does the US stand to gain from this situation? 

 

 China called the Nord Stream pipeline blast of September 26, 2022 an 

'act of international terrorism' and an 'act of war against Germany and Russia'.

Quite a lot. In a scenario where Europe is on friendly terms with Russia and economically, militarily, and politically strengthened, Europe poses too significant a challenge for the US to handle. Hence, the estrangement between Europe and Russia is one of the US's most crucial strategic goals. As anticipated, Europe is now gripped by fear of Russian expansion and Russia fears NATO's eastward movement. And this prisoner's dilemma is further exacerbated by US intervention. 

 

It is evident that the European leaders struggle to discern who their allies and rivals truly are. It is their crucial mistake to view Russia, a potential provider of economic strength and security assurances, as a threat, and the US, a saboteur of the Euro and Europe's regional stability, as a friend. The rationale behind Europe's alignment with the US stems from their belief that Europe holds a prominent position within the US-led uni-polar world.

But time and again, the US disregarded and even intentionally harmed European interests. Europe's political stage is now occupied by liberal leftists whose obstinacy to ideology and blind loyalty to the US have deprived them of strategic foresight. If Europe fails to awaken to the reality, more losses will inevitably befall the European people. Acting as a suicide bomber in the Ukraine conflict will achieve nothing but harm Europe itself. Europe's tragedy is rooted in its failure to recognize the significance of the Ukraine conflict. What we are witnessing is merely the precursor to a brand new world order, an order of multi-polarity which neither the US nor Europe can prevent.  

 

If the current situation continues, Ukraine's status as an independent country will be called into question. At first glance, the US appears to be the biggest winner. To avoid instability, numerous European financial assets and capital are now being redirected to the US, bolstering its pandemic-stricken economy and positioning it as the best-performing developed country. Additionally, Europe is once again brought under the American security umbrella, abandoning its pursuit of strategic independence. Furthermore, the US has profited during the war by selling its own energy at high prices to Europe through sanctions on Russia's energy exports. However, when considering the bigger picture in the long run, the Russia-Ukraine conflict significantly weakens the US-dominated world order and damages the credibility of the US. To many countries, the war exposed the unreliability of the US and the precariousness of the uni-polar world order it perpetuates. 

 

Russia, on the other hand, is making leaps and bounces despite its losses. It has already achieved the initial goals outlined at the beginning of the special military operation. By deepening cooperation with China, India, and the global south, Russia's economy was able to withstand the blow after decoupling from the West. Two years into the war and nearly 20,000 sanctions from 48 countries, Russia maintains relative political and social stability, even experiencing a 3.6% GDP growth in 2023. And most importantly, through this war, Russia is reshaping its image and status as a formidable major power in the emerging multi-polar order. Therefore, in the long run, Russia may emerge as the real long-term winner of this conflict; a conflict that draws the curtains on the hegemonic uni-polar world order dictated by the US.

Quoted from:
Wang Xiangsui (February 29, 2024) - Europe’s Catastrophic Russian Problem.

 

Military strategist Professor Wang Xiangsui is a retired senior colonel in the People's Liberation Army. Wang's 1999 book 

'Unrestricted Warfare' reportedly shifted the views of former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon regarding China.

The US-China Competition in Southeast Asia | Jin Canrong

The US-China competition is going to be a long-term rivalry, and one shouldn't expect immediate outcomes. It consists of domestic competition, in which both countries will try to improve the competitiveness of their economies and the efficiency of their governance. It also consists of relationship-informed competition, where both countries will try to win favor with other nations during this process.

 Jin Canrong, Professor and Associate Dean of School of 

International Studies at Renmin University of China.

To me, the highlight of this competition will occur in Southeast Asia. The American strategy tends to create conflict and tension around China, fostering unrest and stirring up trouble, motivating countries like the Philippines and India to escalate tensions with China. Additionally, the US will use many NGOs to incite color revolutions in the area, including Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Central Asia. Even if these NGOs do not succeed in overthrowing governments, they can still create disturbances and interrupt China's rise. This is a favored geopolitical strategy of the US. In addition, the new $1.6 billion congressional bill passed to support the media demonization of China—what I would call "dog food for social media"—is a well-known tactic that the US has been continuously using against its geopolitical rivals.

 » Southeast Asian countries need industry to boost their growth, and China will be their biggest investor. 

These countries also require infrastructure development, which China can provide. China's financial capabilities 

are well above those of its Western counterparts when it comes to foreign investments. «

It's all part of the grand competition, and we are accustomed to it. The Chinese government cares greatly about Southeast Asia. We often express our desire to establish a community of shared future with Southeast Asian countries. The economic relationship with Southeast Asia has been quite positive in recent years, and the political relationship is also generally healthy, aside from the situation with the Philippines. Almost all Southeast Asian countries were originally colonies of the West, so the cultural and historical influence of Western powers over the region still exists today. There was an organization called the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO), founded back in 1954. Its primary goal was to prevent the spread of communism during the Cold War. This can also be seen as part of a broader coalition against China led by the United States. Thus, the US has some advantages over Southeast Asian countries, at least due to recent history, particularly because China was too weak to project any significant power in the past.

Of course, I believe China's influence is catching up to that of the US in the region. To begin with, we are their neighbors, while the United States is far away. Secondly, our economic ties with the region are much stronger than those of the US. Finally, I think the majority of Southeast Asian countries agree with the Chinese style of non-interventionist foreign policy. In recent months, research and polls conducted by organizations in Singapore and Australia have shown that China's influence over the region is improving and has surpassed that of the United States in some countries. The magazine "Foreign Affairs" has also expressed concern that the US is losing its influence in the region. 

» The US economy is not prepared for global war. We are broke. «  

— Peter Schiff, October 2, 2024.

From my point of view, I believe the current situation is a deadlock—50-50. It's hard to say who is really leading in the region: China or the US. Again, the polls can sometimes be deceiving; they might not provide an accurate picture of what's really going on and can change quickly due to ongoing events. Nonetheless, I believe China is going to overtake the US in terms of influence over Southeast Asian countries in the near future. I believe this is a trend that is difficult to reverse. China has a large and expanding industrial sector, which often carries a spillover effect. Many Southeast Asian countries need industry to boost their growth, and China will be their biggest investor. These countries also require infrastructure development, which China can provide. Additionally, China's financial capabilities are well above those of its Western counterparts when it comes to foreign investments. 

I still see the US as the sole superpower on this planet, but what we are witnessing is that many regional powers are on the rise. In fact, I find it amusing that the majority of Chinese scholars today still consider the US to be the sole superpower. However, many of my foreign colleagues disagree with me. When I traveled to Africa recently, many people there told me that there are currently two superpowers in the world: China and the US. Within the Chinese intellectual community, we do not yet see China as a superpower. That being said, I believe we are entering a bipolar world, particularly in Asia and Southeast Asia, although it is important to note that there are also other strong regional powers. If I refer to it as merely bipolar, our friends in India might take issue with that description.

Quoted from:

Jin Canrong (October 1, 2024) - US-China Competition in Southeast Asia. (video)