Bitcoin April 2024 Halving - Target 150K+ by October 2025 | Peter L. Brandt

Bitcoin halvings are strongly associated with past bull market trends in Bitcoin. Also, a strong correlation exists between the halvings and the timing of the associated bull trends. More precisely, in the past the halvings have been right at the half-way point of major bull cycles. In other words, the lengths of bull trends following the halving dates have been about equal to the length of the bull trends prior to the halving dates [...]

 

The 2022 to 2025 Bull Cycle

We know what HAS BEEN in previous bull cycles. We have confidence in what we already know. But projecting past price behavior into the future is highly speculative. The next halving is April 22, 2024. Assuming that the low of the current bull cycle was in late November 2022. That low was 75 weekly bars before the April 2024 halving.
 

If the bull trend extends 75 weekly bars beyond the next halving, a price high would occur in early October 2025. If the pace of the bull trend after April 2024 is at similar pace to the bull trend since the November 2022 low, then the high in October 2025 could be around $150,000. 

 

However, the post-halving advances during previous bull cycles have been much steeper than the pre-halving advances.

 

 

 

Quoted from:
Peter L. Brandt (Feb 14, 2024) - The precocity of bull markets in Bitcoin as associated with halvings.

 

 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Feb 28, 2024) @ Twitter/X

 

 Bitcoin Fear And Greed Index (Mar 10, 2024)

ICT Market Maker Buy Model and Sell Model (MMXM) | Darya Filipenka

These six videos of the ICT Market Maker Buy Model (MMBM) and Sell Model (MMSM) series on @I_Am_The_ICT / YouTube Channel is all you need to understand the market:

 

 

1. ICT Charter Price Action Model 6 - Amplified Lesson

2. ICT Charter Price Action Model 6 - Algorithmic Theory

3. ICT Charter Price Action Model 6 - Universal Trading Model 

4. ICT Charter Price Action Model 6.2 - Amplified Lesson 

5. ICT Charter Price Action Model 6.3 - Supplementary Lesson

6. ICT Mentorship 2023 - Market Maker Models

 

 

 The ICT Market Maker Buy and Sell Model (MMXM) pairs very well with the ICT Advanced Market Structure.

 

Reference: 

Darya Filipenka @ Twitter/X

Darya Filipenka (2023) - Unlocking Success in ICT 2022 Mentorship: The Smart Money Guide to the Full ICT Day Trading Model.

Gold Breakout - Target 2,530 to 2,700 | Peter L. Brandt

This is a FOR REAL breakout in Gold. Goldfinger points to a target range of 2,530 to 2,700.

 

Peter L. Brandt @ Twitter/X (Mar 06, 2024)

 

June is typically the lowest month for Gold. 

The graph is based on the average prices; there are times when June tops rather than bottoms. 

Buy dips around monthly pivot levels. 

Friday’s Commitment of Traders (COT) Report from the CFTC had an interesting point about gold. The big money "commercial" traders responded to the rally in gold this week by posting the biggest jump in years in their collective net short position. This marks this week’s pop as at least a short term price top.

There has also been a big jump in total open interest lately. Usually such events mark a blowoff top in gold prices, although occasionally they are seen at a breakout point.

 Curiously, though, the small speculators in the "non-reportable" category were not chasing this week’s rally, and instead they reduced their net long position. They have not been net short as a group since 2016, so the analysis task consists in evaluating their relative net long position as a group. Having the small specs feel scared by this rally says it has some enduring legitimacy, once the short term overbought condition can get worked off. 

Tom McClellan @ Twitter/X (Mar 09, 2024)

Gaza Genocide preludes West's Final Battle against Islam | Alexander Dugin

What is your opinion on Israel's genocidal campaign in Gaza? How long can Israel continue this war?

 

I believe we are now on the verge of a major war in West Asia, a clash between American hegemony and Islamic civilization. I cannot say what will happen in the future, but I can say that the Zionists really want to blow up the Al-Aqsa Mosque. This is the apocalyptic project of Zionism to create a Greater Israel. The destruction and genocide of Gaza is a preparation for the creation of a Greater Israel, thus ignoring the two-state solution, an idea that the Zionists cynically reject.

 

 » Trump is anti-Islam, pro-Israel, pro-Zionist, anti-Chinese and anti-Iranian. «

  

I do not believe that Israel's actions can be stopped only by protesting, boycotting and opposing it. The only way to stop and destroy the Zionist regime is for the Muslim population and the Islamic world in general to openly confront Israel. Because if the Islamic civilization does not pay attention to such genocide and closes its eyes to the destruction of the Al Aqsa Mosque, I think that would mean that the Islamic world is powerless before the rest of the world. I believe that the tragic events and genocide facing Gaza is the prelude or the first stage of a much larger war between Islam and the West. Such a war can only be won if all Muslims participate in it.

 

If you could say one more thing to our audience, what would it be?

All the events of the modern world are connected with eschatology. It is clear that the Russian Orthodox world considers modern Western civilization to be the incarnation of the Antichrist. This is in line with Ayatollah Khomeini's idea about the historical mission of the Islamic Revolution in Iran. Furthermore, I believe that modern politics is a form of fossilized theology. Geopolitics is equally important. Only by bringing geopolitics and eschatology together can we understand the true meaning of current world events and changes. It is time to combine geopolitics with religion. 

 

This is exactly what contemporary Iranian ideology has been doing. I believe that we must stand together in this eschatological war. Russia and Iran, Russian Orthodox Christianity and Islam, share a similar geopolitical worldview where the West is identified with the Great Satan or the Dajjal, which represents a totally negative form of social and religious deviation. Putting all these elements together I believe that Russia and Iran are part of the same front and belong to the army of light that will fight against the army of darkness in the final battle.

 

Quoted from:
MEHR News Agency (Mar 05, 2024) - Alexander Dugin: Liberalism is an evil ideology.

 

 The Red Heifer, the destruction of the Al Aqsa Mosque, the Third Temple and Greater Israel.

Israeli Army Celebrates

Israeli Army celebrates the destruction of Gaza’s nonprofit Society for Deaf Children. 

These specimens do not even qualify to the sub-zoology realm.

S&P 500 vs Copper | J.C. Parets

 J.C. Parets @ Twitter/X - Mar 07, 2024

The relationship between the copper price and the S&P 500 Index is one of generally positive correlation, with divergent movements at times. The copper price is an economic bellwether due to its extensive industrial usage; the S&P represents general equity market sentiment. In the days of inflation driven AI craze the price of copper keeps declining.

ICT Daily and Intraday Bias | Darya Filipenka

Determining the daily bias in trading is not about establishing a preconceived bias before the market commences trading, as this approach can often prove to be inaccurate. Instead, it relies on experience and adherence to specific rules. For example, being bullish doesn't mean buying every day, and being bearish doesn't mean selling every day. Traders should wait for specific conditions to meet their expectations, such as discount arrays for bullish trades and premium arrays tor bearish trades, during specific times of the day. 

 

Furthermore, the economic calendar can be effectively employed alongside the daily chart to foresee potential manipulation linked to high-impact news catalysts. Ultimately, determining the daily bias demands the amalgamation of diverse insights acquired through mentorship and hands-on experience. One of the key factors in determining daily and intraday bias is the previous day's high and low. These levels act as reference points that help traders gauge the strength of the current trend and anticipate potential price movements.

To recognize bias, we must identify what order flow is currently being respected. In bullish markets, we expect discount arrays to support price, while in bearish markets we see resistance from premium arrays. Recognizing a change in the state of delivery of price will be important when timing reversals. 

 

It is vital to keep in mind that the daily bias is not a fixed concept. The market's bias can change over the course of the day due to factors like news events, economic data, or geopolitical influences. Traders must remain flexible and modify their strategies accordingly.

Reference:

Darya Filipenka @ Twitter/X.

Darya Filipenka (2023) - Unlocking Success in ICT 2022 Mentorship: The Smart Money Guide to the Full ICT Day Trading Model. 

Michael J. Huddleston (2018) - ICT Daily Bias. (video)

ICT Advanced Market Structure | Darya Filipenka

ICT market structure refers to the way the market behaves and shifts based on various factors such as institutional order flow, imbalances, and key levels. It is represented in a series of either higher lows and higher highs = bullish, or series of lower highs and lower lows = bearish, and the actual turning points that include highs and lows within it (intermediate highs and lows). 

 

The market trades in a generic pattern or rhythm and it is easy to read if one is aware of the basic structure price tends to move in.

1. Generally, the market trades from short term low (STL) to short term high (STH) back to a new short-term tow (STL). As these STL’s and STH's form, they will develop a 'market structure' of price action.
2. Any short term low (STL) that has higher short-term lows (STL) on both sides of it is considered an Intermediate term low (ITL).
3. Any short term high (STH) that has lower short-term highs (STH) on both sides of it is considered an intermediate term high (ITH).
4. Any Intermediate term low (ITL) that has higher intermediate term lows (ITL) on both sides of it is considered long term low (LTL).
5. Any Intermediate term high (ITH) that has lower intermediate term highs (ITH) on both sides of it is considered long term high (LTH).

The highest time frame will act as a Long-Term Perspective. This time frame will show you Higher Time Frame (HTF) Levels which will offer Trade Setup Opportunities. Trade ideas will be built upon levels derived from the HTF.
 

The mid-level time frame will act as an Intermediate-Term Perspective. Following the Trade Setup Opportunity found on the HTF, the mid-level will give you more definition in terms of structure based on that HTF Level. Managing trades will be done via a mid-level time frame.
 

The lowest time frame will act as a Short-Term Perspective. Following the Trade Setup Opportunity found on the HTF and insights given with the mid-level. The Short-Term Perspective will give you even more definition in terms of structure. Timing trades with entries will be done via the lowest time frame.

 

ICT Advanced Market Structure pairs very well with the ICT Market Maker Buy Model and Sell Model.

 

(Source)

 

Reference:

Darya Filipenka @ Twitter/X.

Darya Filipenka (2023) - Unlocking Success in ICT 2022 Mentorship: The Smart Money Guide to the Full ICT Day Trading Model. 

Michael J. Huddleston (2019) - Essentials to ICT Market Structure. (video)

S&P 500 March 2024 Seasonality │ Jeff Hirsch

Over the recent 21 years March has been a decent performing month for the market. Average gains over the period range from a low of 0.78% by DJIA to a respectable 1.40% by NASDAQ. 

 

March typically opens positively but selling pressure and weakness tend to follow quickly thereafter with choppy trading until around mid-month. From here on the market generally rallied to finish out the month. End-of-Q1 portfolio adjustments have contributed to additional choppy trading during the last three or four trading days of March. Election year average performance is influenced by across-the-board double-digit losses in 2020, but March’s pattern is similar with weakness in the first half and modestly improved trading in the second half.

 

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Mar 5, 2024) @ Twitter/X

On Realism and War with China | John Mearsheimer

Lex Fridman: The communication gap between China and the United States seems to be much greater than that of what was the former Soviet Union and the United States.

 

Mearchiavelli, Machiavelli's revenant.

 

John Mearsheimer: It’s an interesting question. A lot of people describe the Cold War as an ideological competition above all else.

Communism versus liberal democracy or communism versus liberal capitalism, whatever. I actually don’t believe that. The Soviets were realists to the core. Stalin was a realist par excellence, and ideology did not matter much in Stalin’s foreign policy. And if you look at Soviet foreign policy after World War II, throughout the Cold War, they were realists to the core. And in those days the Americans were realists. Sure, a lot of liberal ideology floating around out there, but the Americans were realists. One of the reasons we avoided a shooting match between the United States and the Soviet Union from 1947 to 1989 was because both sides understood the basic balance of power logic.

 

The US-China competition is somewhat different. But first of all, the Chinese are realists to the core. I’ve spent a lot of time in China. I am basically a rock star in China. The Chinese are my kind of people. They are realists. They speak my language. It’s the United States that is no longer very realist. American leaders have a very powerful liberal bent and tend not to see the world in realist terms.

 

That’s fascinating. So the Chinese are pragmatic realists and think of the world as a competition of military powers?

 

Yeah, you are actually right. And I think we will avoid war. The problem with the Americans is, it’s not just their liberalism. It’s the possibility that we will pursue a rollback policy. During the Cold War the American grand strategy towards the Soviet Union was: containment, containment, containment. We now know from the historical record that the United States was not only pursuing containment. We were trying to rollback Soviet power to put it bluntly. We were trying to wreck the Soviet Union. And I would not be surprised moving forward with regard to China if the United States pursues a serious rollback policy.

 

So you’re saying throughout history the United States was always pursuing rollback policies? 

Look, you don’t respect the power of other nations. You fear the power of other nations.

 

Will there be a war with China in the 21st century?

 

I don’t know. But my argument is yes, there will be war with China. 

 

Quoted from:
Lex Fridman interviews John Mearsheimer - Nov 17, 2023. (transcript) (video)

 

 See also:
John Mearsheimer (2001) - The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. 

The Destruction of the United States as we know it | Martin Armstrong

I have studied many forms of government. I have found that Republics have always crumbled to dust because they are the most corrupt form of government one can create. Even a Dictatorship or Monarchy is never so corrupt, for they are not suspectable to bribery as Republics. The criticism of Democracy has come from the Greek philosophers who saw the people as too stupid to make decisions. Our representatives look down upon us the same way. 

 

 » If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, 

you will succumb in every battle. «
Sun Tzu, The Art of War.

Many wanted to believe that the Roman Republic was a democracy. Yet, this democracy was a total facade, for it was always under aristocratic rule – not the common people. We too live in a facade where they tell us who is the enemy and we are expected to fight and die who their pleasure. We have no right to vote should we go to war against Russia or China. Rome was the same way. The people had no real rights in this regard.

Assuming they do not take up Alexander Soros’ bold implicate to assassinate Trump so he can flood the United States with his Open Society that disregards culture, religion, and ethics, the computer is forecasting a tumultuous post-2024 election in 2025. History repeats for human nature never changes. What we will see post-2024 is the destruction of the United States as we know it.

Quoted from:
Martin Armstrong (Mar 05, 2024) - The 2024 Election – Will Your Vote Even Matter? 

 

See also:

L. David Linsky (2023) - War and Regime Change soon in the US?

The Psychology of Modern Leftism | Theodore Kaczynski

59. We divide human drives into three groups: (1) those drives that can be satisfied with minimal effort; (2) those that can be satisfied but only at the cost of serious effort; (3) those that cannot be adequately satisfied no matter how much effort one makes. The power process is the process of satisfying the drives of the second group. The more drives there are in the third group, the more there is frustration, anger, eventually defeatism, depression, etc.

 Assistant professor Kaczynski at UC Berkeley in 1968.

60. In modern industrial society natural human drives tend to be pushed into the first and third groups, and the second group tends to consist increasingly of artificially created drives.

Quoted from:
Theodore Kaczynski (1995) - Industrial Society and Its Future, 

also known as the Unabomber Manifesto.

 

 » The truth is superior to provability. « 

Kurt Gödel, 1930.

See also:

 Lutz Dammbeck (2003) - The Net: The Unabomber, LSD and the Internet. (video)

ICT Seasonality | Michael J. Huddleston

 

 

We are in the quiet part of the year still.
Spring is coming to the markets very soon.

The year, if viewed as a single range ... we are in the Accumulation phase still.
Don't blow your equity before the salad days return.

January to April is the yearly Accumulation.
April to May is the Manipulation.
May to November is the Distribution.
December resets the yearly range.

Power of 3

Now go lose sleep over it in your charts.

You won't appreciate this until you pour
over all markets and asset classes and then your ass will hit the floor.
 

 Michael J. Huddleston

 

 Michael J. Huddleston (2017) - ICT Private Mentorship Core Content 

- Month 05 - Ideal Seasonal Tendencies. (video)

 

Time is more important than Price.

 

 

Accumulation - Manipulation - Distribution

 

 

There are two sets of instructions that the algorithm follows:  

AMD-X and X-AMD

 

A = Accumulation (required for a cycle to occur)
M = Manipulation
D = Distribution
X = Reversal or Continuation

Cosmic Cluster Days | March - April 2024

 Cosmic Cluster Day  |   Composite Line  |  Cosmic Noise Channel

○ = Full Moon | ● = New Moon

 

The fundamental premise of financial astrology posits that the myriad movements, angles, and forces among celestial bodies—such as suns, planets, moons, and nodes—are linked to human experiences and to trends and reversals in financial markets. The phrase "As above, so below" encapsulates this belief. The blue summation or composite line depicted in the chart is calculated exclusively from heliocentric planetary longitudes, specifically drawing on 36 heliocentric planetary cycles. While the correlation between this composite line and, for example, U.S. stock markets can sometimes appear striking, it is essential to recognize that this remains a reductionist model and an astrological exercise. Nevertheless, it undoubtedly ranks among the most effective forecasting models developed by financial astrologers to date.

 

The ingredients and the methodology were developed and disclosed by an extraordinary man named Larry Berg ("I discovered the Astro Method on November 19, 1980. At 1:45 p.m., to be exact."). The calculation of the composite line can be done of course manually and graphically with a Nautical Almanac and less complicated, much faster and more exact with software like e.g. an Excel Ephemeris, Alcyone Ephemeris or Timing Solution. Time and date in the chart refer to New York City (EST/EDT).  

 

Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) and financial markets do not exhibit a consistent polarity or directional bias. However, swing directions, along with their highs and lows—also within the 'noise channel'—may correlate with or coincide with market movements and reversals. The mid-March values are the highest in 2024. Upcoming 'cluster days' are: 

 

Feb 25 (Sun)
Feb 29 (Thu)
Mar 02 (Sat) - Mar 03 (Sun) - Mar 04 (Mon)
Mar 07 (Thu)
Mar 09 (Sat) - Mar 10 (Sun) - Mar 11 (Mon) - Mar 12 (Tue) = peak - Mar 13 (Wed) - Mar 14 (Thu) - Mar 15 (Fri) - Mar 16 (Sat)
Mar 19 (Tue) = Spring Equinox
Apr 04 (Thu)
Apr 07 (Sun)
Apr 15 (Mon)
Apr 21 (Sun)
Apr 26 (Fri)
May 15 (Wed)

 The SoLunar Rhythm in March 2024.

 

 [ oftentimes true ]

Planetary Harmonics | Larry Berg

 

 

» The heavenly motions are nothing but a continuous song for several voices, to be perceived by the intellect, not by the ear; a music which, through discordant tensions, through syncopations and cadenzas as it were, progresses toward certain predesigned six-voiced cadences, and thereby sets landmarks in the immeasureable flow of time. « 

— Johannes Kepler, 1619, The Harmony of the Universe, Book V, Chapter 7. 

 

Reference:
Jeffrey H. Horovitz & Richard Tourtellott (1988) - Planetary Harmonics. An Exclusive Interview with Larry Berg. 

In: Cycles, January/February 1988, Foundation of the Study of Cycles.

 

See also:

Larry Berg (2024) - The Berg Timer™, its History and Calculation.