Showing posts sorted by date for query larry williams. Sort by relevance Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by date for query larry williams. Sort by relevance Show all posts

Wednesday, January 21, 2026

2026 S&P 500 Composite: Seasonal, Presidential & Decennial Cycles | NDR

The S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2026, developed by Ned Davis Research, is a predictive model aggregating historical seasonal, presidential, and decennial cycles based on daily data from 1928 to 2024. The cycle composite projects an approximate +5.38% annual return. Major swings: Rise from January to mid-April. Drawdown into early-October. Recovery into year-end.
  
2026 S&P 500 Composite: Seasonal, Presidential, and Decennial Cycles.
 
 Q1 (January-March): Robust early-year momentum with minor fluctuations, accumulating +3.8% by late March.
 Q2 (April-June): Early peak followed by initial decline and volatility, with a net pullback of around -1.0%.
 Q3 (July-September): Continued oscillations with a downward bias, losses of around -0.8%.
Q4 (October-December): Trough early in the quarter, then sharp rally to year-end; gains of about +3.4%.
 
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Thursday, December 25, 2025

2026 Market Forecast: Cycles, Risks, and Opportunities | Larry Williams

Professional bears and purveyors of pessimism often emerge at this time of year with gloom-and-doom narratives. While there are indeed periods to adopt a bearish stance, currently such warnings should be approached with caution. 
  

The standout stock of 2025 has been Nvidia. My forecast for the first few months of 2026 suggests a decline into mid-February, followed by a strong rally into April. On a longer-term basis, indicated by the blue line representing the extended cycle, Nvidia has historically rallied approximately 75% of the time during similar periods. This pattern is expected from mid-February into May, presenting a favorable opportunity for Nvidia investors.
 

Edg
ar Lawrence Smith's research in the 1930s profoundly influenced Warren Buffett. Smith demonstrated that stocks outperform bonds over long periods, particularly through compounding via retained earnings in growing companies. Buffett emphasized firms with disciplined reinvestment of profits. Smith also identified a dominant 3.5-year cycle in stock prices. Out-of-sample testing from 1930 onward reveals cycle lows that marked excellent buying opportunities in 1995, 1998, 2002, 2005, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2019, and 2023. This cycle points to another potential buying opportunity in 2026. 
 

Historical data on years ending in "6," dating back to 1806, show that 85% closed higher, with only four instances of declines. Additionally, after three consecutive up years, the fourth year has been positive eight out of eleven times. These patterns suggest high odds for continued upward momentum, provided supportive fundamentals persist.
 

The M2 money supply exhibits a cycle of approximately six to seven years. Lows in this cycle have historically aligned with bull market advances, as seen from 1960 onward. The next upswing is projected for 2026, introducing a bullish bias, though not guaranteeing a straight-line rally. 

 
 
In summary, 2026 is likely to feature higher stock prices, declining interest rates, and rising inflation. I expect an historic buy point for US stocks. For detailed forecasts, visit iReallyTrade.com starting January 1.

 
GBTC (Spot Bitcoin ETF).
Larry Williams, November 6, 2025.
 
» This is the best market to trade in 2026. «

Monday, December 1, 2025

Engulfing Bar Strategy | JadeCap

This one pattern helped me make over $4 million in the last three years and even break the world-record payout at Apex. Let me show you exactly how it works:
 
» For a true engulfing pattern, the new candle must break the previous candle’s low and the previous candle’s high. «
 
What Is an Engulfing Bar? We’re simply looking for two candles—along with proper context—to define the pattern: Imagine we have a down candle with its open, high, low, and close. The next candle is what determines whether we have an engulfing bar. For a true engulfing pattern, the new candle must break the previous candle’s low and the previous candle’s high. It completely “engulfs” the previous range (aka Outside Bar/Candle).
 
So picture the first down candle closing. The next candle runs below that low, takes it out, reverses, pushes above the prior high, and closes somewhere near the top half of its range. That two-candle formation gives us a tremendous amount of information about where the next candle—or even the next several candles—may go.
 
Understanding the Context: Inside a higher-timeframe candle (4-Hour or daily), there are dozens of smaller candles—1-minute, 5-minute, 15-minute—that form all the micro-structure. Within that lower-timeframe structure, the engulfing pattern represents:
 
Market Maker Buy Model (for bullish engulfing)

So although it's only two candles on a higher timeframe, those two candles often reflect an entire lower-timeframe reversal model.

The key is the closure. Many beginners think a candle will close as an engulfing bar, only for it to close weakly or back inside the prior range. That invalidates the pattern. A proper engulfing bar should close with a strong, decisive body—typically in the upper 50% for bullish setups, or the lower 50% for bearish setups.

Bullish vs. Bearish ExamplesFor a bullish engulfing bar, the second candle runs below the prior low, reverses, and breaks the prior high (Outside Candle). For a bearish engulfing bar, it runs above the prior high, reverses, and breaks the prior low. Both reflect a higher-timeframe representation of a lower-timeframe Market Maker Model.
 
» Every setup has a failure rate. «
 
What Most Traders Don’t RealizeEvery setup—Engulfing Bars, Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), Market Maker Models—has a failure rate. I learned this the hard way after blowing dozens of accounts trying to trade every engulfing bar I saw. Two things matter:
  1. Every setup fails sometimes. If you backtest these candles, you'll see some of them lose. Your job is not to find the magical 100%-win-rate setup. It doesn’t exist. You may find these patterns work 60% of the time. Your winners must be managed well enough to pay for the losers.
  2. Location matters. A lot. When I was new, I took every engulfing bar. That was a huge mistake.
    If you're bullish, you want the engulfing bar to form at a swing low, ideally after taking out sell-side liquidity.
    If it forms after taking out buy-side liquidity—at a high—it's often a sign of exhaustion and more likely to fail.
    The reverse is true for bearish setups.
Avoid:
Bullish engulfing bars printed at or after taking out buy-side liquidity.
Bearish engulfing bars printed at or after taking out sell-side liquidity.
 
These filters alone drastically improve your win rate.
 
The $98,000 ExampleLet’s walk through the trade from last week. We printed a large bullish engulfing candle immediately after FOMC. The candle swept sell-side liquidity, reversed, broke the prior high, and closed strongly—exactly what we want at a swing low. We were also inside a daily Fair Value Gap (FVG), adding even more confluence.
 
Bullish Engulfing Bar Setup in the NZDUSD (4-Hour candles). 

My first target was buy-side liquidity above the highs. Since the market was near all-time highs, I was also looking for a move toward the psychological 25,000 level. As soon as the futures market reopened at 6 p.m., I entered with a 20-lot position. My stop was below the weekly open. I was looking for roughly a 1:3 risk-to-reward.
 
On the lower timeframes, the price action continued to confirm the model—bullish FVGs forming on the way up, continuation structure holding. Meanwhile, bearish engulfing candles printed at swing lows failed, exactly like we want to see.
 
I showed the live account login on the video: real balance, real fills, floating around $93,000 at one point. But the dollar amount doesn’t matter. If your account is small, making $200 or $400 using the same rules is identical—it’s just a matter of position size. Years ago, I was risking $500–$1,000. As my net worth grew, I increased my risk proportionally. Eventually, price hit my target and I closed the trade for roughly $98,000.
 
Final ThoughtsEngulfing bars are easy to spot—but only powerful when combined with
 
    Proper context
    Liquidity understanding
    Market structure
    Higher-timeframe narrative
    Disciplined trade management
 
Your homework is to backtest and forward-test these exact setups: where the engulfing bar forms, where the liquidity sits, where your stop should go, and how to trail it as price moves in your favor. Scaling in, adjusting stops, and managing the trade all revolve around that one pattern.

With this engulfing bar strategy and the rules I just shared, you now have everything you need to start identifying high-probability opportunities. Remember: profitable trading isn’t about talent or luck—it’s about discipline, patience, and following your rules every single time.

Reference:
 
 
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Monday, November 3, 2025

November Post-Election Year Seasonality: Best Month of the Year | Jeff Hirsch

November is typically a bullish month, with twelve bullish days based on the S&P 500. This includes a streak of six consecutive bullish days starting on the first trading day (Nov 3 (Mon)). Although historically a bullish month, November does have its weak points.

November Performance of US Stock Indices: Recent 21-Year (2004-2024) and Post-Election Years (1950-2021).
November Performance of US Stock Indices: Last 21-Years (2004-2024) and Post-Election Years (1950-2021).

The DJIA and Russell 2000 tend to exhibit the greatest strength at the beginning and end of the month. The Russell 2000, in particular, is notably bearish on its 12th trading day (Nov 18 (Tue)); the small-cap benchmark has risen just eleven times in the past 41 years (since 1984). On this day, the Russell 2000's average decline is 0.41%.

Recent weakness around Thanksgiving (Nov 27 (Thu)) has shifted the strength of the DJIA and S&P 500 to align more closely with that of the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, with the majority of bullish days occurring at the start and end of the month. The best way to trade around Thanksgiving is to go long on any weakness before the holiday and exit into strength just before or after.
 
Reference: 
 
S&P 500 Seasonailty First and Last Half of each Month (1928-2024). 
 
 
  

Sunday, October 26, 2025

US Economy: A Closed-Loop Scam And AI-Bubble About to Pop? | Bloomberg

The entire US economy right now seems to be seven companies sending a trillion fake dollars back and forth to each other. This isn't a joke. This is actually real, and the AI scam is going to come crashing down. Soon?

The AI Funding Loop Scam and Bubble according to Bloomberg, October 8, 2025.
The AI Funding Loop Scam and Bubble according to Bloomberg, October 8, 2025. 
 
Sooner or later. A Bloomberg diagram (see above on the right) reveals trillions in circular AI deals among tech giants like Nvidia ($4.5T market cap), Microsoft ($3.9T), and OpenAI ($500B valuation). Examples include Nvidia's $100 billion investment in OpenAI and Oracle's $300 billion cloud partnership. This interconnected funding, detailed in Bloomberg's October 8, 2025, report, has fueled a $1 trillion AI market and $192.7 billion in 2025 Venture Capital investments. However, as these mutual deals lack broad economic productivity gains, they raise concerns about a potential bubble.
 
The "Magnificent 7" make up approximately 30% of the S&P 500.
  
The "Magnificent 7" mega-cap tech stocks—Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta , Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla—make up approximately 30% of the S&P 500 and have driven most of the index’s recent performance. As of October 26, 2025, their combined market capitalization exceeds $21 trillion, highlighting their outsized global influence. Nvidia leads the group with a $4.535 trillion market cap, driven by AI chip demand, with Apple and Microsoft close behind in the $3.9 trillion range. While Tesla has the lowest capitalization in the group, its explosive one-year growth reflects optimism around EVs and autonomy despite recent volatility.

» We're gonna win so much that you may even get tired of winning! You’ll say: 'Please, please, it’s
too much winning. We can't take it anymore, Mr. President. It’s too much!' And I’ll reply—'No, it isn’t! 
We have to keep winning, we have to win more!' «
 Circus Maximus Ringmaster Narcissus during his presidential election campaign in October 2024.
 
The group's average trailing Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 70 is significantly higher than the S&P 500's average of about 25, signaling substantial bubble risks. Nvidia’s P/E of 53.22 and Tesla’s extremely high 303.30 suggest a premium pricing based on lofty future growth expectations. However, forward P/E ratios, such as Alphabet’s 23.31, indicate potential P/E compression if growth moderates. Alphabet leads the group with a 60.44% one-year return, fueled by ad revenue and AI integrations like Gemini. Tesla's 66.51% one-year gain stands out but is contrasted by a -3.40% daily drop, tied to recent production updates. Year-to-date, Nvidia (+38.73%) and Alphabet (+37.75%) are the top performers, while Amazon (+2.20%) and Apple (+5.32%) have cooled amid broader market rotations.

  
US margin debt reached a record high of $1.13 trillion in September 2025, a 6.3% monthly surge, according to FINRA margin statistics. The Wolf Street chart above shows this leverage at 2% of the S&P 500 market capitalization, surpassing the 1.7% peak seen during the dot-com bubble in March 2000. This metric tracks investor borrowing for stock purchases; historical spikes, such as the 2.5% of market cap level preceding the 2008 financial crisis, have often foreshadowed sharp market corrections, as borrowed funds amplify both rallies and forced selling during downturns.

US margin debt reached a record high of $1.13 trillion in September 2025, a 6.3% monthly surge, according to FINRA margin statistics. The Wolf Street chart above shows this leverage at 2% of the S&P 500 market capitalization, surpassing the 1.7% peak seen during the dot-com bubble in March 2000. This metric tracks investor borrowing for stock purchases; historical spikes, such as the 2.5% of market cap level preceding the 2008 financial crisis, have often foreshadowed sharp market corrections, as borrowed funds amplify both rallies and forced selling during downturns.
 
» As bearish as I want to be, I’d say the odds of any pullback being only a consolidation and not the real reversal are increasing as the next major cycle inflection is early next year. « Tom Pizzuti, October 27, 2025.
»
As bearish as I want to be, I’d say the odds of any pullback being only a consolidation and
not the real reversal are increasing as the next major cycle inflection is early next year. «
Tom Pizzuti, October 27, 2025
 

Monday, October 20, 2025

Hurst Cycles Update for S&P 500 and Bitcoin; Focus on Gold | David Hickson

S&P 500In previous updates we noted that the 20-week cycle trough likely formed on September 2, consistent with similar lows across global equity markets within a few days of that date. We discussed the probability that a minor low on September 25 represented the 20-day cycle trough. 

S&P 500 (daily bars) from late August to December 2025:  Rebounding from 40-day trough, likely forming a 40- or 80-day peak —possibly at a marginal new high—before turning lower toward 80-day trough in November. Caution warranted as stock markets transition into broader bearish phase.
S&P 500 (daily bars) from late August to December 2025
Rebounding from 40-day trough, likely forming a 40- or 80-day peak —possibly at a marginal new high—before turning lower toward 80-day trough in November (Oct 10 + 37.2 CD = Nov 16 (Sun) ±). Market now in bearish phase into early Jan 2026.

The expected 40-day cycle trough appears to have occurred on October 10, driven by a sharp, news-related decline. This does not signal a larger-degree trough, but reflects the timing of external events with the 40-day lowPrice has since bounced above the 20-day FLD, suggesting a short-term upside, possibly a marginal new high. Looking ahead, we anticipate an 80-day cycle trough in November, while the broader trend remains bearish into a major longer-term cycle low in early 2026.

Bitcoin
 formed a 20-week cycle trough on September 1, but its subsequent structure has been bearish. The October 17 low — possibly a 40-day trough — occurred below the 20-day FLD, signaling weakness, and any near-term bounce is likely temporary.
 
Bitcoin (daily bars)  late August to December 2025:  18-month cycle points toward major trough in early 2026.
Bitcoin (daily bars) from
late August to December 2025:
 18-month cycle points toward major trough in early 2026.

Bitcoin (monthly bars from 2017 to 2025) entering bear market expected to take price down to $25k.
Bitcoin (monthly bars from 2017 to 2025) entering bear market expected to take price down to $25k.
 
The larger 18-month cycle points to a major trough in early 2026, keeping Bitcoin structurally soft into the broader decline.
 
Gold has been moving sharply higher, and is now approaching the peak of this move. In the monthly chart below, the upper panel displays cycles synchronized at peaks. 
Gold and other commodities often synchronize at peaks, and when markets accelerate sharply—as gold has—troughs are hard to identify, making peak-based analysis the most practical approach.
 
Gold (monthly bars) from 1998 to 2025:  Now approaching the peak of this move.
Gold (monthly bars) from 1998 to 2025
Now approaching the peak of this move.

Looking back to 1998, the analysis identifies 9-year cycle peaks around 2002, 2011, and 2020. The 2002 peak is somewhat uncertain due to gold’s persistent uptrend, while the 2011 and 2020 peaks are well-defined. Markets with synchronized peaks typically form W-shaped structures rather than M-shapes, consistent with gold’s 2011–2020 behavior. The 54-month cycle peak in 2016 also aligns neatly.
 
Gold (monthly bars) from 2020 to 2025:  9-year, 54-month, and 18-month cycle peaks.
Gold (monthly bars) from 2020 to 2025
9-year, 54-month, and 18-month cycle peaks.

Since the 2020 9-year peak, 18-month cycle peaks have occurred in early 2022 and late 2023. Accelerating momentum has made these shorter-term peaks harder to pinpoint, creating some uncertainty around the exact timing of the late-2023 peak. Accordingly, the projected next 18-month cycle peak (indicated by a “circle and whiskers”) should be interpreted with caution. The same applies to the 54-month cycle peak, whose projection relies on historical averages and may have stretched over time.

The weekly chart below shows a “nest of highs,” where the 54-month, 18-month, 40-week, and 20-week cycles overlap. This cluster has shifted slightly later than projected, reflecting an expansion of the longer cycles rather than a flaw in the analysis.

Gold (weekly bars) from October 2024 to October 2025. Potential 54-month peak by mid-October 2025: Gold remains in a strong uptrend, approaching a major multi-year peak as the 20-week, 54-month, and possibly 9-year cycles converge.
Gold (weekly bars) from October 2024 to October 2025.
Potential 54-month peak by mid-October 2025: Gold remains in a strong uptrend, approaching
a major multi-year peak as the 20-week, 54-month, and possibly 9-year cycles converge.
 
Hurst noted that gold’s cycles generally run longer than stock market cycles, and the current data supports this. If cycles continue to extend, the next 20-week cycle peak should occur roughly 175 days after April, landing in mid-October 2025, suggesting a major 54-month peak may be forming now.

Gold (daily bars) from September to October 20, 2025. Peak confirmed once price breaks key VTLs and FLDs.
Gold (daily bars) from September to October 20, 2025.
Peak confirmed once price breaks key VTLs and FLDs.
 
Price targets are derived from FLD interactions, but all upward FLD targets have already been reached. We can, however, use the 9-year FLD for context: in 2015, price tracked this line before breaking above it, an interaction resembling a BC-category event in Hurst’s framework. This suggests the 2015 low may have been a very high-magnitude trough, potentially corresponding to a 36- or 54-year cycle low.

Gold (monthly bars) from 1998 to 2025. All upward FLD targets have already been reached. On a log scale, the $250→$2,000 (~5×) move from 2001 to 2011 projects a proportional long-term target from ~$1,000 in 2016 to around $5,000.
Gold
(monthly bars) from 1998 to 2025.
All upward FLD targets have already been reached. On a log scale, the $250→$2,000 (~5×) move
from 2001 to 2011 projects a proportional long-term target from ~$1,000 in 2016 to around $5,000. 
 
Projecting forward on a logarithmic scale, the initial major move from roughly $250 in 2001 to $2,000 in 2011 represented a 5× gain. Applying the same proportional advance from around $1,000 points in December 2015 (36-year or 54-year low) to a long-term target near $5,000.

 
Gold remains in a long-term mean reversion channel. Currently near the upper resistance (~$4,300/oz), gold appears overextended and may revert toward the mean ($2,500–$3,500/oz) before resuming its secular bull trend. The channel’s higher highs and lows reinforce the broader projection toward ~$10,000/oz as inflation, currency debasement, and safe-haven demand sustain the long-term uptrend.
Gold remains in a long-term mean reversion channel. Currently near the upper resistance (~$4,300/oz), gold appears overextended and may revert toward the mean ($2,500–$3,500/oz) before resuming its secular bull trend. The channel’s higher highs and lows reinforce the broader projection toward ~$10,000/oz as inflation, currency debasement, and safe-haven demand sustain the long-term uptrend.
Subu Trade notes gold’s rare 9-week winning streak ending October 17, 2025 — the first since records began in 1970, with no prior 10-week runs. Historically, such streaks yield 0% positive returns beyond the next day and precede average -13% declines within two months. Yet, dollar weakness and geopolitical stress could extend momentum. As of October 20, 2025, gold trades near $4,270/oz, up 65% YTD after retreating from $4,380 highs — eyeing a record 10th straight weekly gain if it closes higher by October 24.

Subu Trade notes gold’s rare 9-week winning streak ending October 17, 2025 — with no prior 10-week runs since records began in 1970. On average, 9-week winning streaks yield a 0% positive outcome beyond the next day and precede average declines of 13% within two months. 
Ray Merriman (Oct 19, 2025) - Geocosmic calls hit targets Silver, Gold and Bitcoin highs. Short-term, next week will be a New Moon in the last degree of Libra (29°), which means the degree of indecision is trying to do something with the sign of indecision,  but it’s not sure what to do. So it is best to let the Sun get a couple of days into Scorpio, a sign that makes decisions, even though at times ill-advised decisions that involve too much leverage and not enough liquidity. This may indicate a slew of margin calls forcing people to pay up or sell positions to raise cash. If so, this could lead to a further selloff in those markets affected, such as precious metals.  Next week’s aspects are rather benign, otherwise, suggesting support to stock markets with Mercury trine both Jupiter and Saturn at the end of the week, followed by Mars doing the same the week after. The stock market usually likes favorable Jupiter transits. Gold and Silver, not so much, although Mars is still in Scorpio through November 4, which Gold also likes. Still, Gold is due for an important crest any time with Mars between 15-29° Scorpio, and we are there.
 Oct 21, 08:25 EDT
 » We are there. «

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