Sunday, June 22, 2025

Already In the Thick of World War III | Alexander Dugin

Some people probably think that World War III might pass us by. That’s the "Patrick Syndrome": everything happening around us supposedly doesn’t concern us. Don’t fool yourselves. We are already in the thick of World War III. The United States has carried out a bombing strike on our ally, Iran. And nothing stopped them. Now, there’s nothing stopping them—or anyone else—from striking us next. At some point, they’ll decide that not only Iran, but Russia too should not have nuclear weapons. Or they’ll come to some other conclusion.
 
As useful as a band-aid on a corpse.

We’re already at war. They might strike if we advance. They might strike if we retreat. They can strike whenever and wherever they want. Ukraine, of course, is not Israel for the West—but it plays a similar role. Not long ago, Israel didn’t exist either. But it emerged and became a proxy for the collective West (although many Israelis would argue the opposite—that the West is actually a proxy for Israel).

Ukraine is in the same position. And it’s no surprise that Zelensky isn’t just asking, but demanding full support from the West—including nuclear weapons. The role model is obvious: the West is "Ukraine’s proxy." And by the way, the Kiev regime bombed Donbas in much the same way Israel bombs Gaza—only with fewer resources, and with Russia responding more decisively to protect its own people than the Islamic countries did.

 As more players join the war, the situation will evolve rapidly.

Our appeals to the UN and our peacekeeping efforts are now as useful as a band-aid on a corpse. If Iran falls, we’re next. Trump is entirely under the control of the neocons, just as he was in his first term. The MAGA project is over. There will be no “Great America”—only regular globalism.

Musk had already explained everything: Trump was involved in unsavory activities on Epstein’s island, and the footage is in Mossad’s hands. Musk distanced himself in time. Trump has lost his agency. He thinks he can just launch one strike—like he did with Soleimani—and then pull back. But pulling back isn’t an option. He has simply started World War III—and he’s not capable of ending it.

The MAGA project is over.
 
Now much depends on Iran. If Iran regroups and keeps fighting, it still has a chance to win. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. The Houthis have blocked shipping in the Red Sea. As more players join the war, the situation will evolve rapidly. China will try to stay out—until it gets hit too.
 
If Iran surrenders, it will lose itself and betray everyone else. That goes for the rest of us as well. Russia is facing a deadly choice. The question is no longer whether to fight or not—Russia is already at war. Everyone knows this, except the Patricks. The question is: the way we’ve been fighting is no longer enough. That resource has been exhausted. So now we must fight differently. In a new way.
 
June 22, 2025

Tuesday, June 17, 2025

Hurst Cycles Timing & Straddled Troughs in the S&P 500 | David Hickson

The 80-day cycle trough was anticipated around early to mid-last week, but as of June 16, 2025 (Monday), it is considered overdue. The cycle is at 70 days since the last trough on April 7, 2025, compared to a recent average wavelength of 61 days and Hurst’s historical average of 68 days.
 
The S&P 500 is expected to form an 80-day cycle trough around mid-June 2025, potentially straddled, 
with bullish price action likely to follow toward a 20-week cycle trough in early August 2025.
 
If the trough formed on June 16, 2025, it would be 2 days later than the historical 68-day average. If it formed last Friday (June 13, 2025), it would be 1 day earlier than the average. If price continues downward without a bounce, the trough could be delayed to around Monday, June 23, 2025 (see also Cosmic Cluster Days and Seasonal Pattern), potentially due to a rephasing of the 18-month cycle trough to April 7, 2025 (displacing the 80-day trough by ~20 days).
 
 A straddled trough in Hurst cycle analysis occurs when a cycle trough is weak or hard to identify because shorter 
cycles are overshadowed by longer ones (e.g., 20-week, 40-week, 18-month).

The 80-day cycle is weak, showing minimal downward price influence, likely overshadowed by longer cycles (20-week, 40-week, 18-month). This results in a straddled trough, where the trough is subtle and lacks a strong downward move, as seen in the upper chart in the red dashed composite model line. The next 20-Week Cycle Trough is expected in early August 2025, which will likely have a stronger influence on price due to the dominance of longer cycles.

 

Monday, June 2, 2025

Cosmic Cluster Days | June 2025

Heliocentric Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) and financial markets do not display a consistent polarity or directional bias. The 'noise channel' serves as a signal filter, with the upper and lower limits of the channel being empirically defined. That said, swing directions, along with swing highs and lows also within the 'noise channel,' may correlate with or coincide with short-term market trends and reversals.
 
Cosmic Cluster Days
  |   Composite Line  |  Noise Channel    — — —  Solunar Rhythm
  = Full Moon | = New Moon |   = Lunar Declination max North / = max South立春Solar Terms
 
Cosmic Cluster Days in June 2025:
 May 25 (Sun) | Jun 24 (Tue) | Jul 10 (Thu)
 
For previous CCDs, click [HERE]. For background on the author, the concept, and the calculation method, click [HERE].
 
Lunation Cycle, click [HERE].  
Planet Speed (Retrogradity), click [HERE]. 
Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Turning Points, click [HERE]. 
Sensitive Degrees of the Sun, click [HERE].
Planetary Declinations, click [HERE].

The
SoLunar Rhythm in June 2025.
 
Venus at Greatest Elongation on Sunday, June 1, 2025 at 4:00 EDT.
Venus at Aphelion on Thursday, June 12, 2025 at 5:00 EDT.
Summer Solstice on Friday, June 20, 2025 at 22:42 EDT.
Earth at Aphelion on Thursday, July 3, 2025 at 15:54 EDT.
 
Selected geocentric events in
June 2025 (EST/EDT).

June 2025 Post-Election Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch

In post-election years since 1950, early June strength has been notably stronger for NASDAQ and Russell 2000, while DJIA and S&P 500 have typically struggled.  
 
 Typical June Pattern of the S&P 500 in a Post-Election Year:
Early Strength: Starts with a slight uptrend, weaker than NASDAQ (2.5%) or Russell 2000. 
Mid-Month Dip: Drops around days 10-15 due to profit-taking or uncertainty. 
Late-Month Recovery: Rallies late June to a neutral or positive close, less than small-cap/tech gains.
 
So far in June 2025, Russell 2000 ($IWM) has gained 3.8% and NASDAQ ($QQQ) 2.5%, setting the stage for a typical brisk mid-month drop followed by a month-end rally, often led by technology and small caps.

Monday, May 19, 2025

Bullish Hurst Cycle Targets for the S&P 500 and Bitcoin | David Hickson

S&P 500For the S&P 500, an 18-month cycle trough likely formed on April 7, 2025, with confidence upgraded from the prior 80-day cycle analysis. A 40-day cycle trough occurred on May 7, 2025, with price holding above the 20-day FLD, signaling bullishness. An 80-day cycle trough is expected in the first week of June 2025, preceded by a peak. A 20-week cycle trough is anticipated around August 2025. Price crossing the 80-day FLD targets 6,360 before the June trough, while crossing the 20-week FLD targets 6,780 before the August trough. The 80-day FLD should provide support in June. Staying above the 20-day FLD during the 40-day trough and FLD crossings reflect strong bullish momentum, reinforcing the April 18-month trough.

 80-Day Cycle Trough expected around the first week of June, with a prior peak around 6,360.

18-Month Cycle Trough on April 7, 2025, with increased confidence from prior 80-day cycle analysis.
40-Day Cycle Trough on May 7, 2025, with price staying above the 20-day FLD, indicating bullishness.
80-Day Cycle Trough around the first week of June 2025, with a peak forming beforehand.
20-Week Cycle Trough around August 2025.

80-Day FLD Crossing generated a target of ~6,360, expected before the 80-day cycle trough in June 2025.
20-Week FLD Crossing generated a target of ~6,780, expected before the 20-week cycle trough in August 2025.
Support Level: The 80-day FLD is expected to provide support during the 80-day cycle trough in June 2025.

Bitcoin: For Bitcoin, a 40-week cycle trough likely formed in early April 2025, supported by price finding stability at the 40-week FLD. A recent 40-day cycle trough formed with price at or above the 20-day FLD, showing bullishness. An 80-day cycle trough is expected by late June 2025, following a peak. An 18-month or possible 54-month cycle trough occurred in August 2024. The 40-week FLD provided support in April, and prior crossing generated an achieved upside target. Shortened cycles, like the early 40-day trough, suggest a bullish trend. Price behavior at the 20-day FLD and FLD support confirm the 40-week trough, though shorter cycle positioning, like the 20-week trough, remains uncertain. 

 80-Day Cycle Trough expected toward the end of June 2025, with a peak around 109,697 forming prior.

40-Week Cycle (= 9-Month Cycle) Trough likely formed in early April 2025, with evidence of support at the 40-week FLD.
40-Day Cycle Trough formed recently, with price staying at or above the 20-day FLD, indicating bullishness.
80-Day Cycle Trough  expected by end of June 2025, with a peak forming prior.
18-Month Cycle Trough formed in August 2024 (potentially a 54-month cycle trough).

40-Week FLD Interaction: Price found support at the 40-week FLD level in April 2025, confirming the trough.
Upside Target: Prior 40-week FLD crossing generated a target (achieved), with current bullishness suggesting further upside to around 109,697 and 123,519.

 
 

Saturday, May 17, 2025

"Three Day Whaley" Predicting 20% Average Annual Return | Wayne Whaley

When the S&P 500 experiences a one-day upside move of three standard deviations or more, there is often a tendency for the index to undergo some level of profit-taking (consolidation) over the next couple of days. However, if the index defies this tendency and follows the initial surge with two consecutive positive days, it signals strength. This pattern, known as the "Three Day Whaley," is a notable market move deserving of attention.

 The "Three Day Whaley" signal has a perfect 30-0 record since 1950
for predicting positive annual returns averaging 20.2%.

Volatility has increased over the past 75 years. The setup for this pattern requires the S&P to post a move on Day 1 that reflects the volatility during that specific period, followed by two consecutive positive days. The threshold for that initial move has evolved from around 2.25% in 1950 to 3.25% in 2025.

On May 12-14, the S&P met the criteria for this setup with a three-day sequence of 3.25%, 0.76%, and 0.10%—its first occurrence since March 26, 2020, which was followed by a 50.55% annual gain.

Since 1950, the S&P has gone 30-0 in the year following this setup, with an average annual gain of 20.2%. All 30 instances have seen at least a 7.5% gain, and only four of the 30 cases experienced a double-digit drawdown. The first-day threshold requirement can be found in column 3 (DAY1 THHLD) in the table above.

S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Analysis | Krasi

We now have a potentially completed pattern on the hourly chart, with the schedule aligning to week 8 for the 10-week high, suggesting it's time for a pullback toward the 10-week low.


In the short term, the RSI appears to form a triangle in the middle, suggesting a possible zig-zag pattern with a running triangle as the Elliott B-wave. In the intermediate term, a zig-zag pattern is testing the 200-day moving average and the RSI trendline.
The next move is a pullback, followed by a rise into July.
 

In the short term, Hurst cycles are nearing the 10-week high, with the next move likely to be a decline toward the 10-week low.


The 40-week low in early April 2025 was right on schedule, with the next move expected to be a rise toward the 40-week high.
 
»
Absent an escalating trade war, there is no theme right now that can push stocks massively lower (i.e. re-test the April lows). 
I expect stocks to trade in a wide and volatile range throughout 2025 [...] perhaps making marginal all-time highs. «
 
See also:

S&P 500 on Track for Strongest May-to-July Gains in Years | Paul Ciana

Bank of America's Paul Ciana analyzes 96 years of S&P 500 data to highlight the index's seasonal historical performance from May to July, and reveals average gains of 2.5% since 1928 and 5% since 2015.


The S&P 500 closed at approximately 5,958 on May 16, 2025, up from 5,584 on May 1. This represents a 7.16% increase from May 1 to May 16. Forecasts predict that May will average 6,017, ending at 6,249, marking an 11.5% monthly rise. June and July also show positive projections, with June at 6,600 and July at 6,566. Historically, the period from May to July sees a 2.5% gain since 1928, or 5% since 2015. This year’s forecast suggests a 17.6% rise, well above the historical averages.

The current 7.16% increase from May 1 to May 16 already surpasses the historical three-month average, indicating that the seasonal trend is not only holding but also exceeding expectations. While the bullish momentum in the first week of May is clear, the second week is typically bearish. However, the market has continued to rise, possibly due to strong investor sentiment suggesting further gains through July, potentially reaching a 17.6% increase by July 31—far above the 2.5% and 5% historical averages. Capital Economics expects the S&P 500 to hit 7,000 by year-end, while Goldman Sachs predicts a 10% return for 2025, both supporting the idea of strong seasonal performance.

Friday, May 16, 2025

S&P 500: More Good News for Bulls | Ryan Detrick

On average, it is 18.7% higher a year later, 20 out of 20 times since 1976:
Performance of S&P 500 after more than 58% of components reach new 20-day highs.


 

Can we get a pullback? 24% of NASDAQ 100 stocks are overbought with an RSI above 70, a threshold indicating potential price corrections; historically, since 2020, this condition has led to a 1-week pullback 55% of the time, with an average decline of 0.71%.
 
 
 
It wasn't long ago people were talking about the Death Cross in the SPX. Back then we pointed out that the last time the death cross occurred (2022), markets reversed aggressively and managed to overshoot the 200 day by around 3.5%. A similar overshoot now would take us to around 6k.
 

Monday, May 5, 2025

Cosmic Cluster Days | May 2025

Heliocentric Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) and financial markets do not display a consistent polarity or directional bias. The 'noise channel' serves as a signal filter, with the upper and lower limits of the channel being empirically defined. That said, swing directions, along with swing highs and lows also within the 'noise channel,' may correlate with or coincide with short-term market trends and reversals.
 
Cosmic Cluster Days  |   Composite Line  |  Noise Channel    — — —  Solunar Rhythm
  = Full Moon | = New Moon |   = Lunar Declination max North / = max South立春Solar Terms
 
Cosmic Cluster Days in May 2025:
 Apr 30 (Wed) | May 25 (Sun) | Jun 24 (Tue)
 
Venus at Greatest Elongation on Sunday, June 1, 2025 at 4:00 EDT.
 
For previous CCDs, click [HERE]. For background on the author, the concept, and the calculation method, click [HERE].
 
Lunation Cycle, click [HERE].  
Planet Speed (Retrogradity), click [HERE]. 
Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Turning Points, click [HERE]. 
Sensitive Degrees of the Sun, click [HERE].
Planetary Declinations, click [HERE].

The
SoLunar Rhythm in May 2025.