S&P 500 Cycle Analysis - Time and Price Projections Update | Steve Miller

In early November, both small caps and mid caps took the lead, but they have since paused. Recently, the mega caps have regained leadership, with Apple, Google, Meta, and Microsoft all making sharp moves to the upside. This has contributed to a recent uptick in the S&P 500. On the upside, we have short term resistance levels between 6,073 and 6,176.

S&P 500 (weekly bars), six-month cycles, three-month cycles.

S&P 500 (daily bars), 20-trading day cycle trough is expected on December 7 (±3).

The next 20 trading day cycle low is expected on December 7 (±3 trading days), and the dominant cycle trough is due in late May to June of 2025. The market is clearly in a rising phase, with the weekly trend firmly up. Only a drop below the 5,700 low would shift the market from a bullish cycle structure to a bearish one. On the short-term S&P 500 chart, the current setup resembles Apple’s chart: a bullish, right-hand translation throughout nearly the entire rally.

 

Now there is this very narrow window around December 7 for a pullback. The downside base case would be between 6,025 and 5,963, followed by another move to the upside for a higher high. Overall, this remains a very bullish market during a bullish seasonal period, and fading the trend is not advisable at this time.

Reference:
Steve Miller (December 5, 2024) - US Stock Market - S&P 500 | Price Projections & Timing | Cycle and Chart Analysis. (video)

 

David Hickson (November 25, 2024) - Targets & Levels to Watch - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video) 

 

Lulled into Permabull Paradise | Callum Thomas

“To put it simply, and probably no one wants to hear it, but this is not a good set up 

— investors and speculators alike have been lulled into permabull paradise.”

 Callum Thomas, December 4, 2024.

 

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily bars - December 4, 2024) - Tom DeMark's Sequential 9-13 Setup. 

Another ATH (its 56th of the year), and up for the 11th session in 12.
Its daily MACD and RSI pushed further positive.

December Stock Market Performance in Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

Trading in December is typically holiday-inspired, driven by a buying bias throughout the month. However, the first part of the month tends to be weaker due to tax-loss selling and year-end portfolio restructuring. Over the last 21 years, December’s first trading day has generally been bearish for both the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000. A modest rally through the sixth or seventh trading day often fizzles out as the month progresses. Around mid-month, however, holiday cheer tends to take over, and tax-loss selling pressure fades, pushing the indexes higher with a brief pause near the end of the month. In election years, Decembers follow a similar pattern but with significantly larger historical gains in the second half of the month, particularly for the Russell 2000.

■  A choppy first half of December before the year-end Santa Claus rally.

■ The Santa Claus rally begins on December 24 and lasts until January 3, 2025.

■ The 'January Effect' small-cap outperformance starts in mid-December.

■ See also [HERE], [HERE], [HERE], and [HERE].

 

Small caps tend to start outperforming large caps around the middle of the month, driven by the early January Effect. Our “Free Lunch” strategy is based on stocks making new 52-week lows on Quad-Witching Friday (December 20). The “Santa Claus Rally” (SCR) begins with the market open on December 24 and lasts until the second trading day of the new year. Since 1969, the average S&P 500 gain during this seven-trading-day period has been a respectable 1.3%.

This serves as our first market indicator for the New Year. Years when the SCR fails to materialize are often followed by flat or down markets. Of the last seven instances where our SCR (the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the new year) did not occur, six were followed by flat years (1994, 2004, and 2015), two by severe bear markets (2000 and 2008), and one by a mild bear market that ended in February 2016. The absence of Santa this year was likely due to temporary inflation and interest rate concerns that quickly dissipated. As Yale Hirsch’s now-famous line states, “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 3, 2024) - Overbought Markets Pullback During Typical Early December Weakness. 

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 6, 2024) - Presidential Election Day to Yearend Historically Bullish.

Jack Gillen (2009) - Year-End Rally, January Effect, and Trend for the Year Ahead.

Consumers have never been more interested in buying stocks. Corporate insiders have never been less interested. 

Pick your fighter. — Jason Goepfert, December 4, 2024.

South Korea: The Sad Chronicles of a US Vassal State

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol declared martial law on December 3, 2024. Lawmakers voted against the move, and protesters gathered outside parliament. Yoon framed the declaration as "rooting out pro-North Korean forces", but it was strongly opposed by the parliamentary speaker and even Han Dong-hoon, leader of Yoon's own party, who has clashed with the president over recent scandals. Self-coup, martial law, dictatorship? Megalomania, nut-case, loony bin? Will we hear cries from the US State Department about human rights, democracy, and sanctions, or will they remain silent since South Korea (ROK) is the best-controlled and most diligent US vassal state in Asia, still occupied since 1945 by more than 24,000 US combat troops? South Korea doesn’t even command its own military; the Pentagon does. The American occupation regime systematically destroyed traditional Korean culture and identity. Today, the country is trapped in a death spiral, with the lowest fertility rate in Asia, 350,000 abortions annually, and the highest suicide rate in the world.

 

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol's approval rating 

fell to a mere 19% just days before he declared martial law.

 

Maximum dishonor, submission, and degeneracy:
Yoon sings 'American Pie' at Biden's April 2023 state dinner.

 

» Martial law, to root out pro-North Korean forces. «

 

To better understand the realities in South Korea, the following list provides a brief overview of the political turmoil and challenges faced by South Koreans under US occupation since 1948:

1. Lee Seung-man (1948-1960) – The first president of South Korea; overthrown after student protests and widespread unrest.  
2. Yun Bo-seon (1960-1962) – The second president, whose term ended after a military coup.  
3. Park Chung-hee (1962-1979) – Seized power in a 1961 coup and ruled until his assassination in 1979.  
4. Choi Kyu-hah (1979-1980) – Served as president after Park’s death but was deposed by a military coup led by Chun Doo-hwan.  
5. Chun Doo-hwan (1981-1988) – Came to power through a coup, later sentenced to death (commuted to life imprisonment) after his presidency.  
6. Roh Tae-woo (1988-1993) – Former military leader and Chun’s ally, later convicted of corruption and sentenced to prison.  
7. Kim Young-sam (1993-1998) – The first civilian president in decades, he pushed for democratic reforms and prosecuted former military leaders.  
8. Kim Dae-jung (1998-2003) – A former pro-democracy activist who won the Nobel Peace Prize for his policy towards North Korea; was imprisoned and sentenced to death before becoming president.
9. Roh Moo-hyun (2003-2008) – Impeached (later reinstated), faced corruption investigations after his presidency, and tragically committed suicide.  
10. Lee Myung-bak (2008-2013) – Former businessman, arrested after his presidency on corruption charges and is serving a sentence.  
11. Park Geun-hye (2013-2016) – South Korea's first female president, impeached over a corruption scandal, and sentenced to 24 years in prison.  
12. Moon Jae-in (2017-2022) – Elected after Park’s impeachment, a former human rights lawyer who focused on engagement with North Korea and domestic reforms.  
13. Yoon Suk-yeol (2022-present) – Ran on a hardline stance on North Korea, accuses the main opposition party of sympathizing with North Korea and declared martial law on December 3, 2024, "to root out pro-North Korean forces".

   

» He can’t even do martial law properly.«

Kim Jong-un, Supreme Leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).

AAII Bull-Bear Spread Signals Bullish Outlook | Duality Research

Despite the S&P 500 at all-time highs, we have just seen the largest 2-week shift in investor sentiment in over a year, according to the latest AAII Survey.

 

 AAII bears outnumber bulls for the first time since late April. 

All that happened after that was a five month win streak. 

Ryan Detrick, November 28, 2024.

Bearish sentiment has surged to its highest level in more than a year, while bullish sentiment has dropped to its lowest point since April. As a result, the bull-bear spread has turned negative. For context, the average AAII bull-bear spread over the past 12 months has been +18.8%.

Duality Research, November 28, 2024.

 

 S&P 500 Election Year Seasonal Pattern 1949-2022. See also [HERE], [HERE], [HERE], and [HERE].

Optimism Is Off the Charts – The Great Piling In | Sven Henrich

Everybody is long. Everything is vertical.

Reference:
Sven Henrich (December 01, 2024) - NorthCast Market Update: The Great Piling In. (video)

 

 NAAIM at 98.9

Cosmic Cluster Days | December 2024

Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) and financial markets do not display a consistent polarity or directional bias. However, swing directions, along with swing highs and lows—also within the 'noise channel'—may correlate with or coincide with market movements and reversals. 

 

Cosmic Cluster Day  |   Composite Line  |  Cosmic Noise Channel

○ = Full Moon | ● = New Moon

Nov 28 (Thu) | Dec 02 (Mon) | Dec 06 (Fri) | Dec 08 (Sun) | Dec 18 (Wed) | Dec 19 (Thu) | Jan 03 (Fri) | Jan 04 (Sat)

 

For previous CCDs, click [HERE]. For background on the author, the concept, and the calculation methods, click [HERE]. See also:

 

 Seasonality.

 Sensitive Degrees of the Sun. 

 Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Barometers.

 Planetary Declinations.

 Monthly Astro Calendar.

 Lunation Cycle.

 SoLunar Rhythm.

 Chinese 24 Solar Terms.

The Status of the TOY Barometer at the End of November | Wayne Whaley

The way equity markets move from one year to the next often provides insight into what to expect in the following year. One of my favorite Turn of the Year (TOY) barometers is Toy2mt, which tracks the S&P 500's performance over the two months from November 19 to January 19. Historically, when the S&P shows a gain of 3% or more during this period, it has performed very well over the following 12 months (36-2 record, with an average return of 16.6%). I have found that the November component of Toy2mt (November 19-30) serves as an early indicator of what may lie ahead for Toy2mt and the year to come.

As of November 30, six of the first seven Toy2mt days were positive, and the November segment of Toy2mt stands at +1.98%, with bulls targeting a +3% Toy2mt return. Below is the performance for the following 12 months (December-November) since 1950, based on three different levels of the November 19-30 segment of Toy2mt.

 

» If I could make only one trade per year based on one indicator, it would be Toy2mt. «

[HERE], and [HERE]

When the November 19-30 period registers +1.5% or higher, it has typically been a positive signal for the following 12 months (December-November). In 2024, the November 19-30 period came in at +1.98%. It’s still early, and we will learn much more over the next seven weeks.

Wayne Whaley, November 30, 2024.

Trump’s Coming War on BRICS and the Global South | Pepe Escobar

The incoming Trump 2.0 administration is expected to intensify US economic and geopolitical strategies against BRICS and their growing global network. Trump's actions will likely resemble earlier colonial approaches, involving covert regime-change operations, military pressure and intervention, and economic incentives to undermine BRICS and protect US control over resources such as oil and rare earth minerals. The goal is to prevent the new, multipolar world order that reduces US hegemony. This will shape US-BRICS relations and have significant implications for the entire Global South.

 

 Goodbye, America. The cheating game of YOU counterfeiters is over.

 

Trump's swampy 'realist' approach to international relations contrasts with Biden's 'liberal' approach, primarily in that Trump openly defines the national interest as global, full-spectrum American military and economic dominance, asserting that all wars, sanctions, tariffs, and "great deals" benefiting his donor class and billionaire peers would also be acceptable to his MAGA crowd of "hard-working Americans."

 
His administration will aim to sanction any country bypassing the US dollar in trade, targeting the de-dollarization trend supported by BRICS. The de-dollarization movement, gaining momentum, challenges US financial dominance, with BRICS countries increasingly using national currencies and the petroyuan, and exploring alternative payment systems.
 

Marco Rubio will attempt to overthrow the governments of Cuba, 

Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Bolivia, and seize control of their resources.

 

One of the major risks of a Trump 2.0 administration will be the attempt to destabilize the growing connectivity corridors across Eurasia, which are crucial for the strategic partnerships between Russia, China, India, and Iran. These corridors are part of two key axes: a horizontal one spanning across the Heartland from China to the West, including Central Asia, West Asia, and potentially extending to Europe (BRI); and a North-South axis connecting Russia, Iran, and India through the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). This development is critical to Eurasian integration.

 

» We will coup whoever we want! Deal with it. «

 

As the United States observes these emerging networks, it sees its influence in Eurasia waning, particularly as BRICS and associated countries assert themselves. In the long term, this shift threatens America's presence and influence, not only in Eurasia but also in Africa. Africa and Latin America remain more complex due to entrenched regimes and comprador elites that support US interests. Overall, this represents a broader bipartisan struggle by Washington against the integration of Eurasia and the Global South, which undermines the unipolar world order that the US has historically maintained.

Trump’s Coming War on BRICS — Pepe Escobar, November 28, 2024.

 

In Latin America, Venezuela, a quasi-BRICS country economically aligned with China, Russia, Türkiye, and Iran, remains a major obsession for the US. The US is expected to escalate sanctions and covert actions to oust the Maduro government in order to gain access to the world's largest reserves of hydrocarbons, as well as to gold, bauxite, iron ore, uranium, diamonds, and rare-earth elements. Bolivia, which has the world's largest lithium reserves and is rich in natural gas, tin, silver, and copper, will be treated in a similar fashion by the US. Washington think tanks still consider Brazil a "swing state," and controlling the policies of South America's industrial giant remains central to US efforts to limit and sabotage BRICS in the region.

 

 Spotted in Caracas, October 2024.

 

However, in recent years, US attempts at assassinations, regime change, maximum pressure sanctions, hybrid wars of all sorts, and the installation of puppet leaders like Jeanine Áñez, Juan Guaidó, María Corina Machado, and Edmundo González have become increasingly unsuccessful (with Javier Milei and Daniel Noboa appearing more as temporary exceptions). China, Russia, and Iran will not simply allow Venezuela to be looted by Trump, Musk, Rubio, Prince, and other swamp creatures from South Florida.

 

» Facts have proven that the US is the biggest source of chaos in the international system [...] From Afghanistan to Iraq, 

from Ukraine to Gaza, all these crises and conflicts are the result of the self-serving double standards of the US. « 

— Jing Jianfeng, Lieutenant General of China’s People’s Liberation Army, Singapore, June 16, 2024.

 

Saudi Arabia's shift toward full BRICS membership would mark a major change in global financial power. Trump will likely apply diplomatic pressure or sanctions, such as asset freezing, to prevent this, as US influence over global oil markets is already diminishing rapidly.  Africa will see intensified efforts to counter mainly China's and Russia's investments in infrastructure and energy. Trump will also likely increase sanctions and, eventually, together with the French and the British, support destabilization—for example, by terrorist jihadis—as well as blackmail, assassination, and regime-change tactics to prevent further integration of African nations with BRICS. 

 

» The US is at war with the rest of the world. The war in Syria is a microcosm of World War 3  through proxies. «
Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, November 28, 2024.

 

See also:
Dmitry Skvortsov (November 25, 2024) - Trump's Plan to Ruin China.

 Scott Ritter (November 3, 2024) - The United States Exists for War.

Martin Armstrong (October 31, 2024) - BRICS Will Not Kill the Dollar—War Will.

Francisco José Fernández-Cruz Sequera (October 30, 2024) - Global MAGA-nomics. 

Jin Canrong (October 3, 2024) - The US-China Competition in Southeast Asia.
Viktor Orbán (August 28, 2024) - Facing Global System Change.

MFA of the People's Republic of China (February 20, 2023) - The US' Military Hegemony: Wanton Use of Force.

20-Year High in Insider Selling Precedes Market Top | Adam Taggart

Insider selling is often early.

The highest bars in the chart above (ratio of sellers to buyers) seem to come before the final major price tops in the S&P 500. The ratio of insider selling to buying is now at a 20+ year high:

 

1. Stocks are at an all-time high.
2. Corporate executives are selling far more stock than they are buying.
3. It doesn't take a genius to see that the insiders are cashing out while the getting is good,

     leaving everyone else to be the patsy when the rug pull arrives.

Adam Taggart, November 27, 2024. 

Scott Rubner: 4% year-end rally to 6,200 in the S&P 500, and 7,000 not long after.
Bloomberg, November 25, 2024.

 

Over the past 50 years, the Nasdaq has only experienced one instance (2011) where it was negative both on the Wednesday before and the Friday after Thanksgiving. Out of the 9 negative Wednesdays recorded during this period, the Nasdaq posted a positive return on 8 Fridays after Thanksgiving, with an average Friday gain of 1.39% and a median gain of 0.83%.

Wayne Whaley, November 27, 2024.

 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch, November 28, 2024.

DJIA and S&P Bullish Into Year-End, with Bouts of Profit Taking | Day Hagan

In the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and S&P 500, near-term resistance exists within bullish price channels, as negative A/D Line divergences are resolved. The bulls remain in control, but we are watching for signs that the post-election market action signals the beginning of a transition to a choppier 2025. Large-, mid-, and small-cap proxies didn’t come close to filling the upside gap created by the election results, nor did they break below their recent topside breakout ranges and levels. I view this as supportive (bullish) in the near term. It also suggests that the recent low serves as the first level of short-term support.

DJIA and S&P 500 (daily bars). Short-term resistance is still in place. When coupled 

with high levels of “Excessive Optimism”, bouts of profit-taking shouldn’t be surprising. Mind the gaps.

Have equities brought forward the historically bullish returns of the fourth quarter following elections? Are we at risk of such an occurrence? While I still believe there will be instances of profit-taking as we approach year-end, I consider seasonal charts to be secondary; they are not as significant as primary indicators and models.

The Dow Industrials' Four-Year Presidential Cycle suggests a choppy start to 2025, with weakness in the latter part of the 

first presidential year extending into the second year—an outlook that has not been widely discussed on Wall Street.

 

The bull market typically continues into the first year after an election, but the first two years tend to be rocky. Many bear markets begin in the first year and persist into the midterm election year, as seen with the bear market that started in 2021 and continued into 2022. Therefore, looking ahead, prudence suggests adopting an investment strategy that objectively manages risk.

Reference:
Day Hagan (November 27, 2024) - Bullish into Year-End with Bouts of Profit Taking.

 

The typical December Seasonal Pattern starts off dull and pops mid-month.

Support Holds on S&P 500, Bullish Pattern Targets 6,100s | Stephen Suttmeier

First support shifts slightly to the 5870s-5850s area on the S&P 500, which bent but did not decisively break last week. Continuing to hold this support would keep the pattern bullish, with upside potential to the July-September cup and handle. The early 2022 to early 2024 big base breakout targets are into the 6,100s. The cup and handle breakout and retest zone at 5,700-5,650 offers additional support.

The S&P 500 advance-decline (A-D) line reached a new high on Friday (11/22), and the NYSE Composite stocks A-D line hit a new high yesterday (11/25). This neutralizes the mid-October to early November bearish divergences for these market breadth indicators. It also provides bullish confirmation for the new highs on the NYSE and serves as a potential leading indicator for new highs on the S&P 500, increasing the likelihood of following bullish seasonality into year-end.

Stephen Suttmeier, November 26, 2024 [HERE], and [HERE]

 

Trend-wise, while the cap-weighed S&P 500 continues to float above its trendline, the chart above shows that the index is only two standard deviations above trend. At major extremes it can reach three standard deviations.

Jurrien Timmer, November 26, 2024.