Tuesday, May 7, 2024

ICT AM NY Session A+ Setup based on Quarterly Theory | Darya Filipenka

People have been asking me to share my strategy. No, I do NOT over-complicate things. I'm simply demonstrating how straightforward it can be. My strategy is primarily based on the Power of 3 concept that you can find on @I_Am_The_ICT YouTube Channel.
 
ICT New York Morning Session A+ Setups based on Quarterly Theory:
Between 8:15 and 8:38 am (EST/EDT; during the Q3 micro cycle) look for a ICT Unicorn Setup.

I've made some additions to my trading arsenal since @traderdaye introduced the Quarterly Theory, but I've been using this setup since February 2023. I didn't have a name for it initially, but Quarterly Theory seems fitting to me.

I hope you can gain some new insights from my findings, which I've been diligently working on for almost a year. Nevertheless, the core of my strategy can be found on @traderdaye page and
@I_Am_The_ICT YouTube Channel.
  

Monday, May 6, 2024

Typical May Up Early, Weak Middle, Strong Finish | Jeff Hirsch

Over the last 21 years, the first three days of May have historically traded higher, and the S&P 500 has been up 18 of the last 26 first trading days of May. 
 
Bouts of weakness often appear around or on the fourth, sixth/seventh, and twelfth trading days of the month while the last four or five trading days have generally enjoyed respectable gains on average, but the last day of May has weakened noticeably with only NASDAQ gaining ground.


Monday before May monthly option expiration (Monday, May 13) is much stronger than monthly expiration day itself
(Friday, May 17) albeit weaker for small caps. S&P 500 has registered only ten losses in the last thirty-four years on Monday. Monthly expiration day is a loser nearly across the board except for Russell 2000 with a slight average gain (+0.01%). 
 
The full week (May 13-17) had a bullish bias that is fading in recent years with DJIA down seven of the last eight and S&P 500 down six of the last seven. 
 
The week after options expiration week (May 20-24) now tends to favor tech and small caps. NASDAQ has advanced in 24 of the last 34 weeks while Russell 2000 has risen in 26 of the last 34 with an average weekly gain of 0.88%.
 

 April was the first down month in 6 months. Almanac readers know April is the best Dow month by average percent change and #2 for S&P. It’s ranked fourth for average percent change on NASDAQ and Russell 2000.

In general, April is a notoriously bullish market month overall with a high average percent and plurality of gains across the board. A negative April is cause for concern. When the #1 Dow month is down that could be significant.

Digging into the data in the tables below of all down Aprils since 1950 there is a plethora of red in May and through Q2 and Q3. There are several steep drops scattered throughout these 21 down April years. May, Q2 and Q3 show consistent and average losses.

Q4 however delivered solid gains except for four years: 1973 (Watergate, Vietnam, Oil Embargo), 1987 (Crash), 2000 (Undecided Election) and 2012 (ZIRP, QE3, Operation Twist, Big Q1 & Q3). You can see why we expect the market to struggle for the next several months.
 
Quoted from:
 
 In Bull Markets, New Moons are Bottoms, and Full Moons are Tops. 
In Bear Markets, New Moons are Tops, and Full Moons are Bottoms.

Saturday, May 4, 2024

The Great Replacement - Europe has fallen | Eva Vlaardingerbroek

Their message is clear. Our way of life, our Christian religion, our nations, they have to go without exception. Their vision of the future is the neoliberal, unrecognizable Europe, where every city becomes kind of like Brussels. Ugly, dirty, unsafe, zero social cohesion. And what are we left with? A permanent state of isolation, confusion and disorientation. 

» Everyone who has eyes can see it:
The native white Christian European population is being replaced at an ever-accelerating rate.«
 
[...] So what's the antidote? A strong Christian Europe of sovereign nation states. That's why we need to outright reject the lie that nationalism causes war. It's not nationalism or national sovereignty that causes war. It's expansionism. And where in Europe do we find that nowadays? In one place and one place only: Brussels. Isn't it funny how the same people who erode our national sovereignty are now telling us that we need to spend billions and billions of euros on the national sovereignty of Ukraine?

» I am going to draw the forbidden conclusion:
The Great Replacement Theory is no longer a theory.«  

[...] During a recent interview I got asked: "Do you think that you ever go too far? Do you think that you're ever too radical?" I thought about it for a second and said: "No, I don't think I go too far." Truth be told. I think we in Europe do not go far enough. I think that if we really think about the organized structural attack on our civilization, that we don't do enough. Do we do enough to stop the attack on our families, on our continent, on our countries and our religion? When we hear about another murder, another stabbing of a young innocent child, do we do enough? When we know that our national sovereignty has been given up in Brussels, do we do enough? When we hear that Christian kids in Germany are now converting to Islam to fit in, do we do enough? I don't think so. 
 

The totalitarian institution of the European Union needs to come down. Let me be clear: I don't believe in reforms. When the foundation of your institution is rotten, and that is the case in Brussels, you can rebuild the house on top of it all you want, but it's still going to crumble. So the only answer is: The Tower of Babel needs to be destroyed! We are the daughters and sons of the greatest nations on Earth. And we need to ask ourselves, what has happened to us? Where do we come from? And more importantly, where are we going? 
 
Our elites have declared a war on us, and now it is time for us to put on the full armor of God, fight back and win.  
 
 
April 25, 2024
 
"The Islamic New World Order is Here - Europe has fallen."
Speech at the 'Conservative Political Action Conference' in Budapest, Hungary.

Thursday, May 2, 2024

The Kremlin's Last Warning: Will Russia Push the Button? | Martin Armstrong

Dmitry Konstantinovich Kiselyov (born 1954) is a major TV host, and his latest warning to the West is to issue an ultimatum to the UK and the US. On Russian TV, Kiselyov warned [on April 29, 2024] that if a Western power deploys soldiers on the ground in Ukraine to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, it will result in Armageddon. Of course, what I find stunning is how the Western press characterizes him as “Vladimir Putin’s propagandist,” and the implication of those words is that they are not a real threat. 
 
» Then the very moment would come. ‌«
RS-28 Sarmat [dubbed 'Satan II' by NATO] is Russia's most capable hypersonic thermonuclear intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). With a range of 18,000 km and traveling 27 times the speed of sound, Sarmat can extinguish any target/country/enemy anywhere on the planet within minutes with one single strike. Including the US - May 1, 2024.

The press takes NOTHING said from Russia seriously – it’s all a joke, just propaganda. [...] Kiselyov is not going to say this on national TV without the Kremlin actually delivering this warning. He said:  If NATO countries send their troops into Ukraine in order to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, then the very moment about which Putin once said, Why do we need the world, if there is no Russia in it? would come.‌

» Russia can turn the US into radioactive ash. This is not propaganda. ‌«
Dmitry Kiselyov, delivering the Kremlin's last warning - April 29, 2024

Russia has indeed threatened to turn the US into radioactive ash and sink Britain below the waves. While some NATO leaders have been more circumspect, this need for war to justify the defaulting on debt that is the real factor behind the West’s desire for war will have far greater consequences than these fake world leaders who are all hand puppets of the Neocons. Kiselyov added: This is not propaganda. Yet in the West, the Neocons are saying this is a bluff, and Putin will never use nukes so the West can completely destroy Russia – their hated enemy for decades, without a shot fired.

Quoted from:
 
» There seems to be a conspiracy in the British Isles. Why threaten boundless Russia with nuclear weapons while sitting on a small island? The island is so small that one Sarmat missile is enough to sink it once and for all. This is just one launch, and there is no England, once and for all! Another option to plunge Britain into the abyss is the Russian Poseidon. There is no way to stop this underwater drone. It has a warhead with a capacity of up to 100 megatons. The explosion of this thermonuclear torpedo off the coast of Britain will raise a giant wave up to 500 meters high. Such a squall of water is also a carrier of extreme doses of radiation. Passing over the British Isles, it will turn what may be left of them into a radioactive desert. ‌«
Dmitry Kiselyov - May 2, 2022.

Tuesday, April 30, 2024

Solunar Rhythm, Cosmic Cluster Days & Sensitive Sun Degrees | May 2024

 
The SoLunar Rhythm in May 2024.
 [ oftentimes true : ]
New Moons mark beginnings of cycles, Full Moons mark completions.
In Bull Markets, New Moons are Bottoms, and Full Moons are Tops. 
In Bear Markets, New Moons are Tops, and Full Moons are Bottoms.
 
ooo0ooo
 
2024 Feb 25 (Sun) = Low
2024 May 26 (Sun) = High
2024 Jun 11 (Tue) = Low
 
ooo0ooo
 
 Apr 26 (Fri)
May 15 (Wed)
May 26 (Sun)
Jun 16 (Sun)
 
2024 04 26 (Fri) = SUN @ 6 TAU = 36 degrees = negative = low
2024 05 01 (Wed) = SUN @ 12 TAU = 42 degrees = neutral
2024 05 08 (Wed) = SUN @ 18 TAU = 48 degrees
= negative = low
2024 05 19 (Sun) = SUN @ 19 TAU = 59 degrees
= neutral
2024 05 25 (Sat) = SUN @ 5 GEM = 65 degrees
= negative = low
2024 06 06 (Thu) = SUN @ 16 GEM = 76 degrees = neutral

Friday, April 26, 2024

Cosmic Cluster Days | May - June 2024

Cosmic Cluster Day
 
|   Composite Line Cosmic Noise Channel
= Full Moon | = New Moon
 
Cosmic Cluster Days have no consistent polarity nor directional bias. Swing highs and lows also inside of the 'noise channel' may correlate with market directions and reversals. Upcoming Cluster Days are: 
 
Apr 26 (Fri)
May 15 (Wed)
May 26 (Sun)
Jun 16 (Sun)
Jun 26 (Wed)
Jun 28 (Fri)
Jul 04 (Thu)
 
More background information on the author, concept and calculation of Cosmic Cluster Days HERE.

S&P 500 Cycle Analysis | Steve Miller

Does history make a case that Bitcoin has topped? | Peter L. Brandt

Judge for yourself. It’s called Exponential Decay — and it describes Bitcoin. I hate being the bearer of bad news, but data are data. The fact is that the bull market cycles in Bitcoin have lost a tremendous amount of thrust over the years. You may like the story of this data or not — but you will have to deal with it (or at least account for it, adjust for it or just plain ignore it). In fact, I don’t like the Exponential Decay occurring in Bitcoin — Bitcoin is one of my personal largest investment positions.


There have been four major bull cycles in Bitcoin, with the current advance the fifth major bull cycle [the advance from cycle low to cycle high shown in brackets].

    Dec 21, 2009 to Jun 6, 2011 [3,191X advance]
    Nov 14, 2011 to Nov 25, 2013 [572X advance]
    Aug 17, 2015 to Dec 18, 2017 [ 122X advance]
    Dec 10, 2018 to Nov 8, 2021 [ 22X advance]
    Nov 21, 2022 to xxx x,, yyyy [high so far is $73,835 registered on Mar 14, 2024]

Now, here is where Exponential Decay is showing its ugly head.

    The magnitude of the 2011-2013 was approx. 20% of the 2009-2011 cycle
    The magnitude of the 2015-2017 was approx. 20% of the 2011-2013 cycle
    The magnitude of the 2018-2021 was approx. 20% of the 2015-2017 cycle

Worded another way, 80% of the exponential energy of each successful bull market cycle has been lost. Applied forward, this would indicate that the current bull cycle will experience an an exponential advance of approximately 4.5X or so (80% of the 22X of the 2018-2021 cycle). Taking a low for the current cycle of $15,473 projects a high for this cycle of  $72,723 — guess what — a price that has already been reached.


Well, you will ask, what about the halving? Prices have exploded upwards after every previous halving. And that may happen again. But for now we need to deal with the fact of Exponential Decay. It has happened. It is real. You may not want to believe it, but I place a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already topped for this cycle.

If Bitcoin has topped, what’s next you might ask. Of course I have no clue. But, if Bitcoin has topped I would expect a decline back to the mid-$30s, or the 2021 lows. From a classical charting point of view, such a decline is the most bullish thing that could happen from a long-term view. If you want to see an example of such a chart structure, look at the Gold chart from August 2020 to March 2024.

Do I believe the analysis just presented? I don’t want to, but the data speak for itself.

 

The S&P 500 and the Election Year Cycle | Robert Miner

I am recording this on April 25th and am going to talk about the S&P 500 and the election cycle today. [...] Within the next three weeks there is going to be one of the best setups within the entire election cycle. This is a setup that since 1952 had only one minor losing year (less than -1%). 
 
 
In the above chart the dark black line is the average of all election years since 1952. The gray line is the average of all election years since 1984. The red line is 2024 up to past week.


[...] The second chart just covers the beginning of March through September period of the election years. The blue line is the average of all  election years since 1952. In the first chart we saw the entire year, where the first part of the year is usually fairly negative. On average, we can see this distinct dip into the middle of May.


[...] Here are just two key pieces of information from the election year study from the spring until the end of summer. Number one, the 'summer low' is usually made around the second half of May to the first half of June. So that summer low probably hasn't been made yet. It sort of implies that the S&P is likely to be sideways to down into the second half of May. At least that is based on the averages of election years. Number two, in every election year, when the first quarter was strongly bullish (which it was in 2024), the S&P traded above the March high by September 20th - except for the year 2000, when the summer high came within just seven points of the March high by September 20th.


If the S&P happens to be sideways to down for the next few weeks, we know that the bias is overwhelmingly strong and bullish and that the S&P should then trade above the March high
before September 20th. The March high was the high of the year so far, and it is more than likely that the S&P will go sideways to down in the next few weeks. A correction would not be complete prior to May 23rd to 38% time retracement.

 

See
also:

Wednesday, April 24, 2024

Iran Claims Property Rights in Antarctica | Navy Commander Shahram Irani

The Antarctic Treaty was signed in 1959 by twelve countries, prohibiting those nations from testing weapons or constructing military bases on the South Polar continent. It entered into force in 1961 and has since been acceded to by many other nations. The total number of parties to the treaty is now 56, agreeing that only scientific investigations can be conducted, with results shared and made freely available. The U.S. and Russia maintain a base of claims, but no new claim or enlargement of an existing claim to territorial sovereignty in Antarctica is permitted while the present treaty is in force.

 » We have property rights in Antarctica and they belong to the public. Our plan is to raise the flag there, God willing. 
It is not only military work but also scientific work that needs to be carried out. Our scientists are getting ready for a joint operation, encompassing the efforts of all our people and keeping with the guidelines of our leader, God willing. «
 Navy Commander Rear Admiral Shahram Irani, September 28, 2023.

That said, the Islamic Republic of Iran has rejected the treaty and recently announced its own claim to Antarctic territory. Navy Commander Rear Admiral Shahram Irani said Tehran has property rights in the South Pole, where it is planning to build a naval base, declaring that the Iranian nation owns Antarctica and will flex its property rights to not only carry out scientific work but also to raise its flag over a new military installation.

S&P 500 Strength into May 1st & Weakness through Mid May | Larry Williams

Larry Williams expects U.S. stock market strength through May 1 (Wed) and weakness to follow through the middle of May.
 

That weakness could be followed by a relief rally into early June, then another leg down in July. “I am heavily short here,” he says. He expects a strong end of the year as a rally gets under way in early September. 

 

Friday, April 12, 2024

S&P 500 Bear Reversal - Gann's Time and Price Overbalance | Robert Miner


YM and RTY have already made Bear Reversal Signal. S&P and NQ should soon confirm. Gann's time and price overbalance signals: A daily close below 5283 would be an 'overbalance of price' and strong signal the trend should be net Bear for 3-4 weeks or longer.
 
 
 

Saturday, April 6, 2024

The Construction of Hell in the Modern Era | Alexander Dugin

When did everything go wrong? In the era of the great geographical discoveries. By crossing the forbidden boundary of the Pillars of Hercules, Western Europe committed an act of irreversible transgression. This was fatal. The place of Atlantis is at the bottom.

 » The cycle of hell construction is almost complete. «

[...] Five hundred years ago, Western Europe began to systematically lose its sanity. And it went mad because once having begun to go mad, eventually you will go mad. Thus, four anomalies were formed:

1. Atheism and materialism in the scientific worldview, based on nominalism and a pathological Protestant ideology, were prevalent. Even then, it could have been concluded that the West was entering an Antichrist mode, with all things Western and modern irreversibly marked by it. The British pseudo-Empire marked the beginning of hypertrophied Atlanticism. The Anglo-Saxons embodied the biblical Leviathan. In the twentieth century, the baton was passed to the USA, but the dominance of the sea civilisation is England’s legacy.
2. The Middle Ages and its Indo-European tri-functional ideology, Catholicism, and Empire were rejected and ridiculed, replaced by a form of capitalism that was pathological in all respects. Ideologically, it later diverged into liberalism (the main form of mental degeneration), nationalism, and an inverted version that acknowledged its foundational principles — socialism. Any ideological movement within the system of capitalism was doomed to mimicry and collapse. Capitalism is absolutely totalitarian. As Deleuze showed, capitalism culminates in schizophrenia.
3. The philosophy of the modern era split (without warning) into an eccentric continuation of the classical tradition and into destructive perversions in solidarity with materialism and the externalism of science. This caused systematic confusion — a semantic shift in interpretations. Thought struggled in the nets like a deer, sometimes breaking through. But where there was breakthrough and where agony, no one reliably knew; often everything appeared to be strictly the opposite.
4. Culture began to transition into civilisation (according to Spengler), cooling down but not without excesses — from time to time, an unpredictable genius discerned the essence of the thickening darkness and pierced it with a shining needle. Overall, culture was deliberately sliding into hell.

Russia suddenly found itself at war with all this — without wishing, understanding, preparing, or expecting it at all. Russia was placed by an invisible hand in the position it now finds itself. Now, against all odds, we must — institutionally! — respond to all the challenges of the civilisation of the Antichrist, including the challenge of technology. All the electronic devices with which the West has equipped humanity turned out to have a catch — through them, it turns out, someone unknown collects information about everyone in order to then rule unchallenged.
 
 On April 4, the day of the 75th anniversary of the founding
of NATO, lightning struck the torch of the Statue of Liberty.

What people hide the most are their sins. They are of interest to Big Brother. He records them and lets them in when needed. Techno-dependence is the most perfect tool of the devil and his civilisation. We rejoice in digitalisation — we help the devil rule us. But what are oceans of sins if not a field of madness? The cycle of hell construction is almost complete. In its way — only our desperate Special Military Operation. Well, how do you propose we interpret it?

 

Friday, April 5, 2024

Israel attacked Iran | Alexander Dugin

Israel attacked Iran. In Syria, which is not Israel or Palestine. This is an act of aggression. Now Iran has no choice but to attack Israel. With all the forces of the Resistance. This war will be started by the Shiites, but at some point it cannot but become a war of all Muslims.

  » Everyone can see the tactics that are used to defeat the enemy in war.
But what no one can see is the strategy from which great victory arises. «
Sun Tzu, The Art of War.

We must take into account timing: Biden does not want it at all, as his priority is the election and support for Ukraine against Russians, but Trump, on the other hand, does not care about Russians, but Israel is dear to him. 
 
Therefore, Tehran has every reason to start a war with Israel as soon as possible. Under Biden and before Trump. The US and NATO will definitely get involved, but with great reluctance. In the meantime Russians will take Kiev and strengthen dramatically anti-Western pole. That's where Trump will come in or civil war will break out in the US. And the world will already be irreversibly multipolar.

Compassion, Love and Truth | Princess Vittoria Alliata di Villafranca

The compassion we are speaking of, this rahmah that marks the beginning of every sura of the Quran, was translated as “true charity” or “purest love” by famous Catholic prelates and French theologians of the XVIIth century. They had heard of a great woman saint discovered by the crusaders among the Saracens of Palestine and, believing her to be a Christian, they devoted monumental eulogies to none other than Rabia al-‘Adawyya, describing her as the “portrait of true compassion”. This remarkable woman, whose passionate poems are still memorized and chanted from Malaysia to Mauretania, is known in Islam as shahidat al-‘ishq al-ilahi, the true witness of God’s love.

 » In the West as in the East, the virtues of compassion, true love, witnessing
Truth and dying for it have been recognized as an essentially feminine vocation.
«

But shahid does not only mean witness in Arabic. Just as in Greek, were the word martys - meaning witness - becomes martyr in the New Testament, the word shahid in the Quran denotes someone who dies out of devotion to God. The first martyr of Islam was a woman, Sumayya. She was the sixth person to embrace the faith, right after the beginning of the Revelation to Prophet Muhammad. She was tortured for days by the polytheists of Mecca under the blazing sun and finally stabbed and impaled with a spear in front of her young son. But she remained steadfast and died as a martyr, the everlasting first witness of Islam.

In my country, Sicily, the patron saints, miraculous healers whose sacred veils protect from earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, breast cancer and rape, are all women, young virgins starved to death or blinded or burnt alive or torn apart for their fortitude and determination. Their luminous path is still very much alive in our people. It would therefore seem that through the ages and across religions, in the West as in the East, the virtues of compassion, true love, witnessing Truth and dying for it have been recognized as an essentially feminine vocation.

February 26, 2024.

And yet, when a year and a half ago Darya Dugina, a young philosopher who represented Europe at its best, with her ability to fuse Greek metaphysics and Christian tradition, was brutally murdered in a terrorist attack, no Roman prelate celebrated her as the champion of devotion, no outraged feminist called for international sanctions for the crime, no NGO nominated her for a human rights award.  
 
Why? Is it just because Darya was Russian and proud to be part of a nation which she described as “capable of compassion and empathy”? Is it because according to her, unlike the competing Western “wolf-man”, the Russian soul has a softness, a lack of rigid rationality, which it turns into strength, reconnecting the world and healing its wounds?

  » She had revealed the imperative choice that awaits all women today. «

No. It is not so. Nobody had taken the pain to listen to this extraordinary polyglot philosopher, who was also an athletic, elegant, artistic, modern woman. Darya's desire for perfection and beauty and her eagerness to contemplate the absolute essence of Truth were simply hidden behind the appearance of a young journalist. Like all her martyred predecessors, she was an ancilla abscondita, a devoted servant of God protected behind a veil of normality.

It was only when, confronting the Empire of Chaos, Darya raised her name Platonova like a flag to affirm that being a woman today means choosing between two opposite archetypes, that finally the enemy noticed her. Because she had revealed the imperative choice that awaits all women today. The deadly and compelling confrontation that should have remained concealed under gender issues and feminist grievances. Either to be allured by the triumphant role model of Dido, the Phoenician queen who invoked the forces of the underworld to curse with a satanic ritual her lover Aeneas, that she failed to distract from his divine mission. Or to follow at tremendous risk the sacred path of Dante’s Beatrice, the Perfect Being who leads her man beyond the highest levels of Paradise up to the contemplation of the Holy Throne.

Daria has shown us the way to follow if we seek to build the multipolar world from above, contemplating the stars and leaving the sewers behind. It is the duty of all us women who are here today and believe that compassion is our mission and tradition our steed, to pick up the torch of charity and devotion. That inner flame of the heart that preserved Daria’s body and kept it intact, miraculously uncorrupted by the murderous fire, will lead us and protect us. It is up to us to pick it up and carry it on, right now, lighting the path of mankind, blacked out by violence, ambition and arrogance.