Touring the Destroyed Suburbs of Beirut | Laith Marouf & Mohammad Marandi

Dahieh, Beirut, Lebanon — October 3, 2024: Hezbollah's Media Relations Office organized a tour of Beirut's southern suburb, Dahieh, for all international journalists to give the world a glimpse of the mass destruction of civilian infrastructure as a result of the Zionist regime's indiscriminate bombardment of the area. We look at the destruction, the war crimes, and the purposeful targeting of civilians and civilian homes. The day after the first strikes, the Israelis targeted the south and east of Beirut and slaughtered 500 people. It's amazing how barbaric and brutal these people are. This is Western civilization. People across the world despise the West because of what they do.

They knew exactly that there were no military targets in these buildings. They wanted to humiliate our people and break our will, especially our warrior men. But Sayyidna Ali says: 'Hayhat aminna dulla; woe to us if we accept humiliation.' God willing, we will all meet in a free Palestine very soon. I am optimistic. Victory is nearing—a victory also for Jews. Those who are anti-Zionists will see the benefits of the collapse of the Zionist regime. Humanity will benefit from it. These elites in the West will lose, but everyone else will win. Inshallah.

A few hours ago, the leader of France, Macron, issued a statement saying that France is deploying all its military assets in the region to defend the Zionist colony. Brits and Americans are practically saying the same thing, indicating that these colonial powers, will actually participate in attacks on Iran.

Russians Show No Sign of Sanction Fatigue | The Hill

Absolutely stunning article in The Hill - about how "Russians must suffer but they live better than in the EU":

» Two and a half years into their nation’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russians seem to be less affected by the war than they were in 2022. Neither Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region nor the most recent Western sanctions seem to be igniting discontent among “ordinary” citizens or the affluent populations of Russia’s largest cities. This comes as a surprise to many Western policymakers and the Russian dissidents who invested some hope in Muscovites and Petersburgers becoming disgruntled with the “war economy,” as such luxuries as Western boutiques, unlimited internet use and even easy weekend trips to European capitals vanish.

The Hill's main audience are lawmakers, policymakers, and influential 

digital consumers, particularly in and around Washington, D.C.

[...] The Western sanctions imposed in 2022 caused a sharp fall in Russia’s capital exports. Almost all the money that would have previously been channeled into luxury European real estate instead started to flow into Moscow, St. Petersburg and their suburbs. Since 2021, the average dollar price of an apartment in Moscow has risen by a staggering 43 percent, and the city government has invested huge efforts into expanding transportation facilities and stimulating private businesses in the service sector to meet growing demand. [...] In the last ten years, 78 new stations of the Moscow underground were built — more than in the previous four decades —  and the commuter network was integrated into a broader railway system, now resembling the Paris Métro-RER network. The city now has the largest fleet of locally made all-electric buses in Europe, while river electric trams are bolstering Moscow’s transit infrastructure.

[...] Although Visa and MasterCard suspended their operations in Russia, Russians continue to use Central Bank’s Instantaneous Payments System, which allows the transfer of any amount of money using one’s mobile phone number as an identifier, immediately and without commission. Russia’s capital cities are now ahead of European metropolises in using QR-code payments and facial recognition in financial transactions, and mobile data in Russia remains the cheapest and fastest in Europe. Grocery shops feature the same assortment of goods as before the war, including French wine and Italian confectionary. On the top of that, doorstep delivery of food and goods by autonomous bots is commonplace. 

 

[...] Meanwhile, booming demand is driving up local wages. Moreover, the job offers have been so enticing in recent months that many Russians who left the country at the beginning of the war, are now returning after failing to integrate into European societies. Even Western celebrities like the developmental economist Jeffrey Sachs are starring in glamorous international events like the recent BRICS Urban Future Forum which attracted dozens of mayors of major cities across Asia, Africa and the Middle East. [...] This economic progress, partially caused by the West’s confrontational policy, has undermined the anti-Putin sentiments in the country much more than any other factor. 

The West’s attempt to undermine Russia economically since 2022 has thus produced an opposite result — at least so far. «

Quoted from:

The Hill (September 30, 2024) - Why do Russians appear so satisfied despite the war in Ukraine?

Europe’s Catastrophic Russian Problem | Wang Xiangsui

Europe is becoming the biggest loser in the Ukraine conflict, despite having fostered closer ties with Russia following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Europe is now actively cutting these ties in an effort to align with the US policies aimed at punishing Russia. 

 

But the price is dear. The largest economy prior to the Ukraine war, Europe is now facing the prospect of political divisions and security threats. Its insensible actions are not only compromising Europe's autonomy and increasing its military reliance on the US, but also disrupting its energy supply chains, in which Russia played an important part. So what does the US stand to gain from this situation? 

 

 China called the Nord Stream pipeline blast of September 26, 2022 an 

'act of international terrorism' and an 'act of war against Germany and Russia'.

Quite a lot. In a scenario where Europe is on friendly terms with Russia and economically, militarily, and politically strengthened, Europe poses too significant a challenge for the US to handle. Hence, the estrangement between Europe and Russia is one of the US's most crucial strategic goals. As anticipated, Europe is now gripped by fear of Russian expansion and Russia fears NATO's eastward movement. And this prisoner's dilemma is further exacerbated by US intervention. 

 

It is evident that the European leaders struggle to discern who their allies and rivals truly are. It is their crucial mistake to view Russia, a potential provider of economic strength and security assurances, as a threat, and the US, a saboteur of the Euro and Europe's regional stability, as a friend. The rationale behind Europe's alignment with the US stems from their belief that Europe holds a prominent position within the US-led uni-polar world.

But time and again, the US disregarded and even intentionally harmed European interests. Europe's political stage is now occupied by liberal leftists whose obstinacy to ideology and blind loyalty to the US have deprived them of strategic foresight. If Europe fails to awaken to the reality, more losses will inevitably befall the European people. Acting as a suicide bomber in the Ukraine conflict will achieve nothing but harm Europe itself. Europe's tragedy is rooted in its failure to recognize the significance of the Ukraine conflict. What we are witnessing is merely the precursor to a brand new world order, an order of multi-polarity which neither the US nor Europe can prevent.  

 

If the current situation continues, Ukraine's status as an independent country will be called into question. At first glance, the US appears to be the biggest winner. To avoid instability, numerous European financial assets and capital are now being redirected to the US, bolstering its pandemic-stricken economy and positioning it as the best-performing developed country. Additionally, Europe is once again brought under the American security umbrella, abandoning its pursuit of strategic independence. Furthermore, the US has profited during the war by selling its own energy at high prices to Europe through sanctions on Russia's energy exports. However, when considering the bigger picture in the long run, the Russia-Ukraine conflict significantly weakens the US-dominated world order and damages the credibility of the US. To many countries, the war exposed the unreliability of the US and the precariousness of the uni-polar world order it perpetuates. 

 

Russia, on the other hand, is making leaps and bounces despite its losses. It has already achieved the initial goals outlined at the beginning of the special military operation. By deepening cooperation with China, India, and the global south, Russia's economy was able to withstand the blow after decoupling from the West. Two years into the war and nearly 20,000 sanctions from 48 countries, Russia maintains relative political and social stability, even experiencing a 3.6% GDP growth in 2023. And most importantly, through this war, Russia is reshaping its image and status as a formidable major power in the emerging multi-polar order. Therefore, in the long run, Russia may emerge as the real long-term winner of this conflict; a conflict that draws the curtains on the hegemonic uni-polar world order dictated by the US.

Quoted from:
Wang Xiangsui (February 29, 2024) - Europe’s Catastrophic Russian Problem.

 

Military strategist Professor Wang Xiangsui is a retired senior colonel in the People's Liberation Army. Wang's 1999 book 

'Unrestricted Warfare' reportedly shifted the views of former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon regarding China.

The US-China Competition in Southeast Asia | Jin Canrong

The US-China competition is going to be a long-term rivalry, and one shouldn't expect immediate outcomes. It consists of domestic competition, in which both countries will try to improve the competitiveness of their economies and the efficiency of their governance. It also consists of relationship-informed competition, where both countries will try to win favor with other nations during this process.

 Jin Canrong, Professor and Associate Dean of School of 

International Studies at Renmin University of China.

To me, the highlight of this competition will occur in Southeast Asia. The American strategy tends to create conflict and tension around China, fostering unrest and stirring up trouble, motivating countries like the Philippines and India to escalate tensions with China. Additionally, the US will use many NGOs to incite color revolutions in the area, including Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Central Asia. Even if these NGOs do not succeed in overthrowing governments, they can still create disturbances and interrupt China's rise. This is a favored geopolitical strategy of the US. In addition, the new $1.6 billion congressional bill passed to support the media demonization of China—what I would call "dog food for social media"—is a well-known tactic that the US has been continuously using against its geopolitical rivals.

 » Southeast Asian countries need industry to boost their growth, and China will be their biggest investor. 

These countries also require infrastructure development, which China can provide. China's 

financial 

capabilities are well above those of its Western counterparts when it comes to foreign investments. «

It's all part of the grand competition, and we are accustomed to it. The Chinese government cares greatly about Southeast Asia. We often express our desire to establish a community of shared future with Southeast Asian countries. The economic relationship with Southeast Asia has been quite positive in recent years, and the political relationship is also generally healthy, aside from the situation with the Philippines. Almost all Southeast Asian countries were originally colonies of the West, so the cultural and historical influence of Western powers over the region still exists today. There was an organization called the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO), founded back in 1954. Its primary goal was to prevent the spread of communism during the Cold War. This can also be seen as part of a broader coalition against China led by the United States. Thus, the US has some advantages over Southeast Asian countries, at least due to recent history, particularly because China was too weak to project any significant power in the past.

Of course, I believe China's influence is catching up to that of the US in the region. To begin with, we are their neighbors, while the United States is far away. Secondly, our economic ties with the region are much stronger than those of the US. Finally, I think the majority of Southeast Asian countries agree with the Chinese style of non-interventionist foreign policy. In recent months, research and polls conducted by organizations in Singapore and Australia have shown that China's influence over the region is improving and has surpassed that of the United States in some countries. The magazine "Foreign Affairs" has also expressed concern that the US is losing its influence in the region. 

» The US economy is not prepared for global war. We are broke. «  

— Peter Schiff, October 2, 2024.

From my point of view, I believe the current situation is a deadlock—50-50. It's hard to say who is really leading in the region: China or the US. Again, the polls can sometimes be deceiving; they might not provide an accurate picture of what's really going on and can change quickly due to ongoing events. Nonetheless, I believe China is going to overtake the US in terms of influence over Southeast Asian countries in the near future. I believe this is a trend that is difficult to reverse. China has a large and expanding industrial sector, which often carries a spillover effect. Many Southeast Asian countries need industry to boost their growth, and China will be their biggest investor. These countries also require infrastructure development, which China can provide. Additionally, China's financial capabilities are well above those of its Western counterparts when it comes to foreign investments. 

I still see the US as the sole superpower on this planet, but what we are witnessing is that many regional powers are on the rise. In fact, I find it amusing that the majority of Chinese scholars today still consider the US to be the sole superpower. However, many of my foreign colleagues disagree with me. When I traveled to Africa recently, many people there told me that there are currently two superpowers in the world: China and the US. Within the Chinese intellectual community, we do not yet see China as a superpower. That being said, I believe we are entering a bipolar world, particularly in Asia and Southeast Asia, although it is important to note that there are also other strong regional powers. If I refer to it as merely bipolar, our friends in India might take issue with that description.

Quoted from:

Jin Canrong (October 1, 2024) - US-China Competition in Southeast Asia. (video) 

Cosmic Cluster Days | October 2024

Cosmic Cluster Day  |   Composite Line  |  Cosmic Noise Channel

○ = Full Moon | ● = New Moon

Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) and financial markets have no consistent fixed polarity nor directional bias. Nonetheless, swing directions, highs and lows  — also inside of the 'noise channel'  — may correlate or coincide with financial market directions and reversals. Previous CCDs HERE. Background on author, concept and calculation HERE. 

 

 Sensitive Degrees of the Sun. 

 Geocentric Bradley Barometer.

 Monthly Astro Calendar.

 Lunation Cycle.

 SoLunar Rhythm.

October Volatility After Big Gain First Three Quarters | Jeff Hirsch

The history of years with gains of this magnitude at this juncture in the year with solid Q3 and September upside performance for the most part have been followed by more bullish market behavior and a continuation of the rally. But as you can see in the table of S&P 500 Performance Following Big Q3 Year-to-Date Gains the bulk of any damage occurred in October.

Jeff Hirsch — September 25, 2024.

Of the top 30 S&P 500 9-month gains since 1930 all 30 years ended higher with average gains of 25.9%. Q4s were up 24, down 6, average gain 4.6%. Octobers were up 15, down 15 with an average gain of 0.01%. Of the most recent 12 occurrences October is down 7, up 5 with an average loss of -1.1%, which includes the Crash of 1987 and a -21.8% loss for October 1987.

Quoted from: 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (October 1, 2024) - October Volatility After Big Gain First Three Quarters.