Saturday, August 31, 2024

S&P 500 Uptrend May Extend to 5,800 Into Equinox | Robert Miner

Daily S&P 500 data from the July high shows an an A-B-C correction into August 13. Since then, the S&P 500 has continued upward and sideways, reaching a new high last Friday, August 30. With daily momentum showing a bull reversal, the S&P 500 is expected to remain bullish for the next few days and likely exceed the July high within the next week or two. The daily closing level of 5,798 is a key benchmark to watch.
 
 
Key dates to monitor include the week ending September 20, which aligns with the next Fed announcement and the fall equinox on September 22. Historically, reversals often occur near the fall equinox. If the S&P 500 remains sideways or rises into this period, it could signal the completion of the current upward trend and the onset of a counter-trend move.

 
For the next three weeks, the S&P 500 should target the range of 5,689 to 5,783 based on weekly closing data. Monitoring this range is essential. A weekly close within this range by the week ending September 20 may indicate a potential weekly high. Weekly momentum indicators suggest that the S&P 500 is likely to continue its upward trend for another two to three weeks.
 
 
See also:

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S&P 500 Soared 7% in Summer, Shifts Weakness to October | Wayne Whaley

For this study, summer is defined as the three months from June to August. Historically, the S&P 500 index tends to show modest performance during the summer, with an average gain of 1.43% since 1950 over these three months. In 2024, however, the S&P 500 achieved an impressive 7.03% gain during the summer, with individual gains of 3.5% in June, 1.1% in July, and 2.3% in August.

 
The weakest seasonal period of the year historically occurs in the second half of September. However, strong summers often push much of the traditional September weakness into October, specifically from October 18th to October 28th. During this period in the years with a summer gain of over 5%, the S&P 500 has averaged a loss of 2.53%, with a performance record of 4 gains and 19 losses.

This period is followed by one of the strongest periods of the year, from October 28th to November 5th. In years with a summer gain of over 5%, this timeframe has averaged a gain of 2.61%, with a performance record of 21 gains and 1 loss.

 
4-Year Presidential Election Cycle 1949-2020 vs 2021-2024
— Jeff Hirsch, August 19, 2024
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Friday, August 30, 2024

The US Is Now Ready for Violence, Civil War & Secession | Martin Armstrong

This will probably be the last election in the United States, for we will most likely split into three regional governments. [...] There is no question that post-election violence will be extreme. Whenever you have this winner-takes-all system and political corruption unfolds, the LEFT is not seeking to govern the nation; they are seeking to oppress all opponents.
 
 » The United States will most likely split into three regional governments. «
 
[...] Democracies are supposed to be where people have the right to vote. The Democrats were denied the right even to select their candidate. This is tyranny, for Kamala was merely installed. [...] Typically, governments go into civil wars when there is a conflict that is culturally/ethnically, religiously, or racially driven, and we are now checking that box and just waiting for the election. We will face a rigged and contested election that neither side will accept. When there is no confidence in the government anymore, the ONLY resolution is always violence. History confirms this prognostication. How can there be such fantastic polls for Kamala, who never won a single delegate during the 2020 primary, and we look at the only real independent poll organization that shows confidence in Congress down to 7%?

 » No question that post-election violence will be extreme. «

It does not matter who wins. This election will NEVER be accepted, and it certainly will NOT unify the country. The Democratic Convention threw Trump’s name out 329 times. It was just a hate fest. That will ensure violence. The LEFT will never accept a Trump victory – NO WAY!!!!! There is no belief that this election will be free and fair. The United States has declined into this dangerous characteristic that warns the country is far too divided to stand. I am concerned that the dollar may decline FOR THIS REASON. I want to think that reform is possible. Unfortunately, history tells us that when an empire, nation, country, or city-state is this divided, REFORM becomes possible only AFTER violence.  
 
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Re-Accumulation & Re-Distribution Range Patterns | Richard D. Wyckoff

 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily bars - May 23-August 30, 2024) — 40 Week Hurst Cycle Trough on August 5th.
Martin Armstrong's DJIA Aggregate topping Week August 26-30 and Panic Cycle Week September 9 - 13.  
US Stock Market Seasonality negative into late October (Jeff Hirsch & Martin Biber).

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (4 hour bars - August 15-30, 2024) — Distribution or Re-Accumulation:
Distribution Schematic #3 in Phase C or Re-Accumulation with Spring Action in Phase D ?
 
   The 4 Phases of Richard D. Wyckoff's Market Cycle:
(1.) Accumulation, (2.) Mark Up, (3.) Distribution, (4.) Mark Down.
The Re-Accumulation process is exactly identical to the Accumulation process. The only difference between the two is the way the structure begins to develop. While the Accumulation range begins by stopping a bearish movement, the Re-Accumulation range begins after the stop of an upward movement. To put it another way: A Re-Accumulation occurs during a longer-term up trend, which will continue in the future. The main street is finally on the right side as well. Inside a Wyckoff Re-Accumulation schematic, buyers are closing parts of their long positions and sellers are joining the market. With the incoming selling positions, market makers can fill new long positions again.

 4 Types of Re-Accumulation Ranges a.k.a. Continuation Patterns a.k.a. Trend Continuation:
(1.) Re-Accumulation after a Decline.
(2.) Re-Accumulation with Spring Action.
(3.) Re-Accumulation after a Shakeout.
(4.) Re-Accumulation with an Uprising Structure.

The 4 Re-Distribution types are simply the opposite (lower 4 schematics):
(1.) Re-Distribution after a Rally.
(2.) Re-Distribution with Spring Action.
(3.) Re-Distribution after a Shakeout.
(4.) Re-Distribution with a Declining Structure.

 Examples of different types of Re-Accumulation Patterns in the Apple (AAPL) Weekly Chart.
 
The events and phases are still the same (see the Accumulation and Distributions Schematics - the last 4 charts). Only the beginning of the Re-Accumulation cycle is different and equals the start of a distribution cycle. Take a look at the Wyckoff distribution schematics below for the occurring events. The main events that differ from an accumulation or distribution cycle are the occurrences of the Creek. The Creek is a small trend over time and can equal a smaller consolidation. The Creek builds liquidity on both sides of the market and misleads market participants. The Jump Across the Creek (JAC) is the event that causes the SoS. The Jump Across the Creek does take out previous resistance lines with a strong up move. The Jump Across the Creek can also occur inside the trading range of the accumulation. The Creek can be the horizontal resistance defined by Phases A and B or an internal trend line that formed inside Phase B.
  • After the spring and test events, there is a bullish price move with momentum. This is called the Jump Across the Creek. Price continues with a bullish Phase E.
  • Usually, any shakeout and/or decline action before Re-Accumulation will have a local smaller distribution pattern (cause and effect).
  • The Initial Shakeout/Decline is less pronounced during Re-Accumulation than before Accumulation.
  • Volume: Re-Accumulation usually has less supply than Accumulation.
  • The maximum swing of trading range (highest to lowest point): Re-Accumulation trading range is usually tighter compared with an Accumulation trading range.
 (1.) Re-Accumulation after a Decline
 
  • Weakest among the Re-Accumulation types.
  • Decline usually starts from a small local distribution pattern.
  • It can have different variations of the trading range (see the structure of the next 3 formations).
(2.) Re-Accumulation with Spring Action
 
  • Flat or sloping down formation.
  • It can potentially have a few lower lows with a spring being the lowest point of the trading range.
  • Leading stocks can exhibit short-term weakness after strength in this formation.
(3.) Re-Accumulation after a Shakeout
 
  • Absorption of supply happens in the trading range without violation of support.
  • Usually and depending on a position of the market, this pattern exhibits strength.
(4.) Re-Accumulation with an Uprising Structure 
 
  • Re-Accumulation with an Uprise is the strongest Re-Accumulation type.
  • This structure will exhibit higher highs / higher lows.
  • Sometimes can be confused with a topping trading range (Distribution).
 
 
 Accumulation Schematic #1: Phases A and B.

 Accumulation Schematic #1: Phases C, D and E.
 
 Distribution Schematic #3: Phases A, B, C, D and E = the Inversion of the  Accumulation Schematic #1
 
The Re-Distribution occurs inside a markdown cycle and stops a down-trend for a longer period. After bigger price moves even Main Street joins the trend. Now it is time for the market makers to bring the price into a consolidation phase to scare sellers and bring in new buyers. That ensures new liquidity for the institution’s to place new short orders. The start of a Wyckoff Re-Distribution schematic is the same as an Accumulation cycle. A Creek inside the trading range creates liquidity on both sides of the market, which gets taken by a UTAD. Many people will see this as a break-out to join bullish price action, but don’t get fooled. With a Jump across the Creek, the price is not only returning into the trading range but going to continue the downtrend from before.
 
 
  Distribution Schematic #2: Phases A and B.
 
 Distribution Schematic #2: Phases C, D and E.
 
Many believe that simply labeling the events is sufficient for detecting Wyckoff cycles. Don't forget that a supposed Distribution can become a Re-Accumulation or an Accumulation a Re-Distribution. Therefore, it is essential to presuppose a fundamental market analysis and confirm a Wyckoff cycle with COT data, Seasonality, or other longer-term confirmations. Don't make the mistake of looking for Accumulations and Distributions in lower time frames. It is easy to draw a supposed accumulation on a 5-minute chart, but a real Accumulation takes place in higher time frames. Since a Wyckoff cycle takes time to unfold, wait for the events to occur and be fully validated. Otherwise, one quickly get s distracted by the noise within the actual moves and makes bad trading decisions in the worst case. 
 
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The Wang Yi - Jake Sullivan Talks in Full


 » For the United States, the big cycles look mostly unfavorable. «
Ray Dalio “Power Index” for great powers and empires over time.
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Thursday, August 29, 2024

Decoding S&P 500 Seasonality | Martin Biber

The following chart shows three different calculations of the S&P 500's seasonality [...] one commonality is the V-shape into early October and out of it. That is the reason why everyone is talking about the weakness in September.


The following chart shows the seasonality of all the years since 1950. The seasonality only touches the low of the chart once, which means that over all those years, the market has always had one weakness at the same time. The low happens in late September, followed by a substantial rally until January. The seasonality shows some weakness into March, followed by a reaction that ends at the beginning of May. After that, the seasonality, calculated without a trend component in this chart, goes down until late September. This is why we often say, “Sell in May and go away.”

 
The red line on the following chart also shows seasonality, but only the last ten years were used to calculate the results. The behavior around the seasonal low in October looks similar to the seasonality in all years. I have, however, a second low in the middle of March and a clear top in mid-July. This top is only a few days after the one we experienced this year. Interestingly, the saying “Sell in May and go away” wasn’t good advice over the last ten years, as we would have missed the rallies between March and mid-July.

 
The following chart compares the blue seasonality with the seasonality of the years ending with 4 (2014, 2004, etc.). The low occurs in early October, compared to the two previous seasonalities, which have the seasonal low at the end of September. The rally only lasts until early November. But there is a second rally immediately afterward, which lasts until late January.

 
Summary:
While all seasonalities point to a weak September and a crucial low late in September, the seasonality of the years ending in 4 lets us assume that the seasonal low could occur one or two weeks later than usual. Anyway, no other date in a year is statistically as significant for the S&P 500 as everyone knows and is waiting for the late September or early October low.

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Wednesday, August 28, 2024

Cosmic Cluster Days | September 2024

Cosmic Cluster Day  |   Composite Line  |  Cosmic Noise Channel
○ = Full Moon | ● = New Moon

Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) and financial markets have no consistent fixed polarity nor directional bias. Nonetheless, swing directions, highs and lows  — also inside of the 'noise channel'  — may correlate or coincide with financial market directions and reversals. Upcoming CCDs: 
 
Aug 29 (Thu)
Sep 05 (Thu)
Sep 07 (Sat)
Sep 08 (Sun)
Sep 12 (Thu)
Sep 13 (Fri)
Sep 14 (Sat)
Sep 15 (Sun)
Sep 20 (Fri)
Sep 22 (Sun)
Oct 23 (Wed)
 
Earlier CCDs HERE
 
More background information on the original author, the concept and calculation of CCDs  HERE.
 
 
2024 08 10 (Sat) = SUN @ 18 LEO = 138 degrees = positive = high
2024 09 02 (Mon) = SUN @ 10 VIR = 160 degrees = negative = low
2024 09 04 (Wed) = SUN @ 12 VIR = 162 degrees = positive = high
2024 09 05 (Thu) = SUN @ 13 VIR = 163 degrees = negative = low
2024 09 20 (Fri) = SUN @ 28 VIR = 178 degrees = positive = high
2024 09 24 (Tue) = SUN @ 2 LIB = 182 degrees = negative = low
2024 10 07 (Mon) = SUN @ 14 LIB = 194 degrees = negative = low

Turning points in the Geocentric Bradley Barometer during September 2024:
 
2024 Aug 29 (Thu) = High
2024 Sep 07 (Sat) = Low
2024 Sep 14 (Sat) = High
2024 Sep 19 (Thu) = Low
2024 Sep 27 (Fri) = High
2024 Oct 01 (Tue) = Low
 
 
The SoLunar Rhythm in September 2024:
September 2 (Mon) 
September 7 (Sat)
September 11 (Wed)
September 13 (Fri)
September 17 (Tue)
September 21 (Sat)
September 24 (Tue)
September 28 (Sat)

See also:
Martin Armstrong (July 14, 2024) - Panic Cycles Week July 15 - 19 & Week September 9 - 13.
Sergey Tarassov (June 26, 2024) - 2024 DJIA vs 40 & 42 Month Cycles.
 
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Facing Global System Change | Prime Minister Viktor Orbán of Hungary

It is a cliché that war is the continuation of policy with other means. It is important to add that war is the continuation of policy from a different perspective. So war, in its relentlessness, takes us to a new position from which to see things, to a high vantage point. And from there it gives us a completely different – hitherto unknown – perspective. We find ourselves in new surroundings and in a new, rarefied force field. In this pure reality, ideologies lose their power; statistical sleights of hand lose their power; media distortions and politicians’ tactical dissimulation loses its power. There is no longer any relevance to widespread delusions – or even to conspiracy theories. What remains is the stark, brutal reality. 
 
 » The war in Ukraine is our red pill. And now we must talk about reality. « 
Viktor Orbán - July 27, 2024.

[...] A change is coming, that has not been seen for five hundred years. This has not been apparent to us because in the last 150 years there have been great changes in and around us, but in these changes the dominant world power has always been in the West. And our starting point is that the changes we are seeing now are likely to follow this Western logic. By contrast, this is a new situation. In the past, change was Western: the Habsburgs rose and then fell; Spain was up, and it became the centre of power; it fell, and the English rose; the First World War finished off the monarchies; the British were replaced by the Americans as world leaders; then the Russo–American Cold War was won by the Americans. But all these developments remained within our Western logic. 
 
 Viktor Orbán meets President Xi Jinping - July 8, 2024.

This is not the case now, however, and this is what we must face up to; because the Western world is not challenged from within the Western world, and so the logic of change has been disrupted. What I am talking about, and what we are facing, is actually a global system change. And this is a process that is coming from Asia. To put it succinctly and primitively, for the next many decades – or perhaps centuries, because the previous world system was in place for five hundred years – the dominant centre of the world will be in Asia: China, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, and I could go on. They have already created their platforms, there is this BRICS formation in which they are already present. And there is the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, in which these countries are building the new world economy.

FM Peter Szijjarto accuses EU of disrupting oil supplies from Russia - August 24, 2024.

I think that this is an inevitable process, because Asia has the demographic advantage, it has the technological advantage in ever more areas, it has the capital advantage, and it is bringing its military power up to equilibrium with that of the West. Asia will have – or perhaps already has – the most money, the largest financial funds, the largest companies in the world, the best universities, the best research institutes, and the largest stock exchanges. It will have – or already has – the most advanced space research and the most advanced medical science. In addition, we in the West – even the Russians – have been well shepherded into this new entity that is taking shape. The question is whether or not the process is reversible – and if not, when it became irreversible. I think it happened in 2001, when we in the West decided to invite China to join the World Trade Organisation. Since then this process has been almost unstoppable and irreversible.
 
[...] What is the European response to global system change? We have two options. The first is what we call “the open-air museum”. This is what we have now. We are moving towards it. Europe, absorbed by the US, will be left in an underdeveloped role. It will be a continent that the world marvels at, but one which no longer has within it the dynamic for development. The second option is strategic autonomy. In other words, we must enter the competition of global system change. After all, this is what the USA does, according to its own logic. And we are indeed talking about 400 million people. It is possible to recreate Europe’s capacity to attract capital, and it is possible to bring capital back from America.

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Sunday, August 25, 2024

Telegram Founder Pavel Durov Arrested In France | Laura Ruggeri

I see only two possible outcomes after Durov's Arrest: Either Durov cooperates with EU/NATO or the platform will be banned altogether. When you are facing a very lengthy sentence for crimes that any user of your platform could have committed (the list is endless), the possibility that Durov will cave in is almost a certainty. 
 
 France decided to prescribe the Assange treatment to Durov.

Under the Orwellian Digital Services Act adopted by the EU in 2022, key requirements include disclosing to regulators how the platform  algorithms work, removing content deemed illegal or any content that EU-funded "fact-checkers" deem inappropriate. Think of what falls foul of  Facebook "community rules" and you get a pretty good idea of what kind of content will be censored. Of course Durov will have to provide a backdoor and encryption keys to Western intelligence services and the police.

 
oooo0oooo 

Mike Benz joins Tucker Carlson and breaks down everything about the US Deep State’s
involvement in Telegram, and why they arrested Pavel Durov. Watch the full conversation HERE.
 
French authorities accuse Durov, who holds citizenships in Russia, France, Saint Kitts and Nevis, and the U.A.E., of complicity in drug trafficking, crimes against children and fraud due to the lack of moderation on his Telegram messenger platform. He could face up to 20 years in prison on all those charges, said Alain Duflot, a French specialist in international law and lecturer at the University of Lyon. Durov received French citizenship in 2021 and will stand trial as a French citizen, French TF1 TV reports. Analysts believe France may use Durov's trial to impose EU sanctions against Telegram, and doubt the possibility of Durov being released either before his trial on bail or after the trial. As he is a French citizen, his extradition to Russia or participation in a prisoner swap deal is reportedly impossible, despite the fact that he also has Russian citizenship.
 
TikTok. Telegram. X. Rumble.
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